2025 年十一假期期货市场品种解读 2025 年 10 月 8 日 | | 研究员： | 赵丹琪（执业编号：F3039881 | 投资咨询资格编号：Z0014940） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 邮件：zhaodq1@cjfco.com.cn | 公司地址：http://www.cjfco.com.cn | 微信公众号：ChangjiangFutures | | | 板块 | 品种 | 9 月 30 日下午 3:00 价格 | 10 月 7 日下午 3:00 价格 | 涨跌幅 | | | 纳斯达克 | 22,660.01 | 22,941.67 | 1.24% | | | 标准普尔 | 6,688.46 | 6,740.28 | 0.77% | | 宏观 | 道琼斯工业 | 46,397.89 | 46,694.97 | 0.64% | | | 恒生指数 | 26,855.56 | 26957.77 | 0.38% | | | 美元指数 | 97.80 | 98.1175 | 0.33% | | 贵金属 | COMEX 白银 | 46.97 | 48.33 ...

国际金价又飙升了，早上起来看到现货黄金已经出新高了，然后看了看纽约金的走势，早上最高到了3945美元，涨幅达到了0.62%，之前大家可能觉得4000 美元遥不可及，以及外资投行们对黄金上4000美元的时间都推迟到了明年的上半年，如今看随时都可能到4000美元了。 普通人到底该如何投资呢？ 实际上目前的金价上涨跟大多数人是没有关系的，除非你之前在很低的位置买入，一直持有到现在，否则的话金价已经快到4000美元了，这个时候你再去追 投，很显然风险已经大于机遇了，当然了从目前金价的走势看，不见得会在4000美元附近见到一个重要的高点，而此时向上的空间到底还有多少呢，其实没 有人心里是很有把握的，说白了大家都在博弈，就看最后一帮谁接了。 从我自身的角度而言，目前金价看起来即将逼近4000美元，但是客观的说，似乎从走势上还没有看到加速的迹象，也就是说金价什么时候连续大阳线，或者 说加速向上之时，那时候可能就真的距离阶段性高点很近了，这就是说对持仓黄金的人们来说，可以试试看这个信号出来的时候是一个不错的兑现机会，在 这个之前其实没有必要过于担心的。 而对想参与黄金的群体而言，如果是我自身的话，之前本来就没有参与过黄金投资 ...

今日高点高于昨日的日内交易区间，低点低于昨日的日内交易区间，在日线图上可以视为看跌的"关键 反转"，也是市场顶部已经形成的早期技术线索。 美国政府关门已进入第二天，特朗普政府加大赌注，暂停了180亿美元基础设施建设资金，并暗示将解 雇数千名联邦政府工作人员。一些经济学家警告，大规模裁员可能削弱企业信心并减少资本投资。政府 关门正在引发一些市场避险情绪。 新华财经纽约10月2日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价2 日收于每盎司3880.80美元，跌幅为0.43%。 近期金价创下历史新高，白银价格创14年新高，导致市场出现获利回吐，当天黄金和白银价格下跌。美 元指数上涨、原油价格下跌也打压金价。 市场分析人士认为，尽管金价今年已经上涨逾40%，但是黄金仍然能为投资者提供巨大价值，因为黄金 是唯一能够保持购买力的资产。即使市场出现一些盘整，黄金在2025年最后一个季度仍拥有充足的看涨 势头，金价仍有可能达到每盎司4000美元。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格收于每盎司46.87美元，跌1.70%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Oil Market - International oil prices have experienced a significant decline, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by $1.30 to $60.48 per barrel, a decrease of 2.1%, and Brent crude oil futures falling by $1.03 to $64.32 per barrel, down 1.58% [1][3] - Brent and WTI crude oil have seen four consecutive days of decline, reaching their lowest levels in nearly four months due to concerns over potential oversupply ahead of an upcoming OPEC meeting [3] - HFI Research indicates that U.S. oil inventories are expected to increase by year-end, contributing to a persistently weak oil market environment [4] Gold Market - Gold prices initially reached a record high of $3,897 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline, dropping below $3,820 per ounce [5] - Year-to-date, spot gold prices have risen by $1,200 per ounce, representing an increase of over 45%, driven primarily by risks associated with the U.S. economy [9] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has supported gold prices [10] - Institutions such as JPMorgan and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, with expectations that gold could reach $3,800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and potentially exceed $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026 [11] - Analysts predict that gold prices will likely fluctuate between $3,700 and $4,100 per ounce in Q4 2023, with a possibility of breaking above $4,200 per ounce if no significant negative factors arise [12]

当地时间周三，美国联邦政府近七年来首次陷入停摆状态，部分机构已停止运行。不过目前投资者认为本次停摆将是短期事件，对美国经济的伤害不会太 大。 美国9月私营部门就业人数不及预期 强化美联储年内降息预期 另一方面，此前一天，美国总统特朗普称与辉瑞达成协议，辉瑞将自愿降低其药品在美国的售价。投资者认为，此举有助于辉瑞规避更严格的药品定价政 策和关税威胁，同时利好医药行业。大型医药企业股价普遍上涨，辉瑞收涨近6.8%。 乐观情绪带动美国三大股指集体收涨，标普500指数创收盘历史新高。截至收盘，道指微涨0.09%，标普500指数上涨0.34%，纳指上涨0.42%。 美国制造业活动 连续第七个月收缩 经济数据面上，美国供应管理协会（ISM）周三公布的数据显示，美国9月ISM制造业PMI指数为49.1，连续第七个月处于收缩区间，当月新订单数回落， 11个行业的制造活动出现萎缩。 同一天，根据美国自动数据处理公司ADP公布的数据，经季节性调整后，9月份美国私营部门就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来的最大降幅，与此 同时，8月份的数据也被大幅下调。由于美国政府停摆，本周五的非农就业报告可能无法如期发布，这份私营部门就 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].

•贺利氏（Heraeus）：美联储继续降息前景对黄金有利 •光大期货：长假期间贵金属走势上具有较高的不确定性 •铜冠金源期货：金价再创新高，宜轻仓过节 •五矿期货：美国政府面临"关门"危机 贵金属稳步上涨 编辑：郭洲洋 光大期货表示，美国8月成屋签约销售指数同比上涨0.5%，前值为上涨0.3%，成屋签约销售创五个月新 高，按揭贷款利率下降提振住房市场。美联储官员Hammack称对通胀前景感到担忧，货币政策面临"一 个充满挑战的时刻"，只有在经济前景出现"更实质性的疲软"时，她才希望将政策转向宽松立场，而目 前她并未看到这种情况。美国联邦政府10月1日可能面临＂停摆＂风险，加之国际地缘冲突持续发酵， 市场避险情绪上升，受此影响美元回落，并推动金价再创新高。国内长假将至，国际贵金属市场正常交 易，期间国际市场将公布多项重要经济数据，美政府也面临停摆威胁，走势上具有较高的不确定性。短 期价格已处历史高位，技术面存在回调压力，假期波动可能加剧。 铜冠金源期货表示，受美国降息预期、对美国政府关门的担忧以及地缘政治紧张局势升级的影响，投资 者纷纷涌向避险资产，金价再创历史新高。美国劳工统计局表示，一旦发生政府停摆，将暂停 ...

消息面上，国会参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默与共和党领袖约翰·图恩定于29日在白宫会见特朗普，讨论 政府拨款延期法案事宜。参议院预计30日对众议院通过的政府拨款延期法案投票。该法案若通过，将使 美国政府在国会完成年度支出法案期间继续运转7周。 今日开盘，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)强势上涨2.34%，成分股江西铜业(600362)上涨 6.54%，江西铜业股份(00358)上涨6.35%，白银有色(601212)上涨6.27%，紫金矿业(02899)，紫金矿业 (601899)等个股跟涨。 黄金股ETF(517520)上涨2.46%，最新价报2元。拉长时间看，截至2025年9月29日，黄金股ETF近1周累 计上涨4.16%。 买黄金，就买黄金股ETF（517520）： 规模方面，黄金股ETF最新规模达115.03亿元，创近1年新高，位居可比基金1/6。 份额方面，黄金股ETF近2周份额增长2.34亿份，实现显著增长，新增份额位居可比基金1/6。 从资金净流入方面来看，黄金股ETF最新资金净流出9047.64万元。拉长时间看，近10个交易日内有7日 资金净流入，合计"吸金"7.36亿元，日均净流入达7 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 里士满联储主席巴尔金：即将公布的数据将决定美联储是否应进一步降息；美联储理事鲍曼强烈支持美 联储仅持有国债，忽略关税的一次性影响是合适的。 27日讯据华尔街日报报道，一名美国高级官员及一名乌克兰官员透露，特朗普表示，他对放宽乌克兰使 用美制远程武器打击俄罗斯境内目标的限制持开放态度，但在此次会面中并未承诺具体行动。 【机构观点】 银河期货： 【基本面消息】 数据显示，9月29日上海黄金现货价格报价857.03元/克，相较于期货主力价格（866.52元/克）贴水9.49 元/克。 美国8月核心PCE物价指数年率2.9%，预期2.90%，前值2.90%。美国8月核心PCE物价指数月率0.2%，预 期0.20%，前值由0.30%修正为0.2%。美国8月个人支出月率0.6%，预期0.5%，前值0.50%。美国9月密歇 根大学消费者信心指数终值55.1，预期55.4，前值55.4。美国9月一年期通胀率预期终值4.7%，预期 4.8%，前值4.80%。 美国联邦政府2026财政年度将于10月1日开启，但截至目前，国会在财政拨款上仍未达成任何共识。若 两党在那之前不能协商一致，美国联邦政府资金将在9月 ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices reached a new high on September 29, with Chow Sang Sang gold rising by 3 CNY per gram to 1111 CNY per gram, marking the highest price among gold stores [1] - Shanghai China Gold increased by 8 CNY per gram, pricing at 1019 CNY per gram, which remains the lowest among the listed stores [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices narrowed to 92 CNY, indicating significant variation in pricing across different brands [1] Group 2: Gold Store Pricing Overview - The detailed pricing for various gold stores on September 29, 2025, includes: - Lao Miao Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (down 2 CNY) - Liufu Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) - Chow Tai Fook Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) - Zhou Liufu Gold: 1065 CNY per gram (up 5 CNY) - Jin Zun Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) - Lao Feng Xiang Gold: 1110 CNY per gram (up 2 CNY) - Chao Hong Ji Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) - Zhou Sheng Sheng Gold: 1111 CNY per gram (up 3 CNY) - Cai Bai Gold: 1058 CNY per gram (no change) - Shanghai China Gold: 1019 CNY per gram (up 8 CNY) - Zhou Da Sheng Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) [1] Group 3: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices also saw an increase, with Chow Sang Sang platinum jewelry rising by 15 CNY per gram to 648 CNY per gram [1] Group 4: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price slightly decreased by 2.3 CNY per gram, with notable differences among brands: - Heavy Gold: 849.50 CNY per gram - Cai Zi Gold: 852.70 CNY per gram - Chow Sang Sang Gold: 842.00 CNY per gram - Chow Tai Fook Gold: 851.30 CNY per gram - Lao Feng Xiang Gold: 860.20 CNY per gram [2] Group 5: International Gold Prices - The spot gold price maintained an upward trend, reaching a peak of 3818.87 USD per ounce, marking a new historical high [4] - As of the latest update, the gold price was reported at 3812.12 USD per ounce, reflecting a 1.40% increase [4] - Market concerns regarding a potential government shutdown in the U.S. have heightened risk aversion, contributing to the rise in gold prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine situation, are also influencing market dynamics, with the U.S. considering military support for Ukraine [4]