Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a sideways fluctuation around the 3400-point level, with recent unexpected declines attributed to geopolitical tensions, specifically Israel's sudden attack on Iran [1] - The market is observing a wait-and-see approach, particularly regarding potential Iranian retaliation and its implications for market dynamics in the coming days [1] - Only two sectors showed significant gains today: oil extraction-related services and precious metals, indicating a shift in investor focus towards these industries amid uncertainty [1] Group 2 - It is advised to maintain a position of 60-70% in the market, with 20-30% allocated for short-term trading, especially around the 3400-point mark [2] - The fundamental market conditions remain unchanged, with macroeconomic policies and central bank support providing stability, suggesting no immediate cause for concern [2] - The market is expected to continue fluctuating within the 3300-3400 point range, with a focus on leading companies in strong sectors, while monitoring broker reactions in the upcoming week [2]

2.黄金建议回调3315-3310附近做多，止损在3302，目标3330-3350。 本交易日市场关注焦点集中于即将公布的美国CPI报告，预计该数据将引发显著市场波动。当前美元指 数维持在98.35-99.50区间震荡。随着美国5月CPI数据将于北京时间周三20:30发布，市场预期在数据公 布后行情将趋于明朗。统计显示，受特朗普政府推行激进关税政策及地缘政治局势动荡影响，2025年初 至今黄金价格已累计上涨逾25%。各国央行持续增持黄金储备，加速从美国资产中撤离资金。此外市场 参与者正密切关注周四的美国国债拍卖情况，若需求疲软可能进一步提升黄金的避险需求。交易员将重 点分析CPI数据以评估美联储利率政策走向，当前市场预计美联储9月降息25个基点的概率约为52%，该 数据可能显著影响市场对美联储货币政策的预期。 操作策略： 1.黄金建议目前3342-3347附近做空，止损在3355，目标3320-3300； 黄金4小时图技术形态显示当前处于震荡整理阶段，晚间建议维持区间震荡交易思路。从4小时K线结构 观察，布林带呈现收口状态，价格在中轨附近反复穿越，短线呈现震荡偏强态势。技术面上方需重点关 注3345-3350 ...

Group 1 - The domestic market is facing a significant issue with declining trading volume, which has fallen below 1 trillion, creating downward pressure on market sentiment [3] - The market is currently lacking overall opportunities, with only specific sectors like nuclear energy and resources continuing to rise, while other sectors show limited performance [3] - There is a liquidity pressure reflected in the rise of the overnight borrowing rate (GC001) by 10%, indicating a tightening of short-term funds as the end of the month approaches [3] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a volatile and oscillating process, with the national team likely to stabilize the market if significant downturns occur [4] - Current support for upward breakthroughs is insufficient, with limited short-term policy benefits and ongoing preparations for new industrial policies that may focus on high-end manufacturing and critical areas like chips and artificial intelligence [4] - The anticipated new version of industrial policy, which may emerge around mid-2025, is still in its early stages and unlikely to create immediate market impact [4]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the market is positive as billion-level private equity firms increase their positions, indicating confidence in the current market environment [1] - As of May 16, the overall stock private equity position index remains stable at 75.16%, maintaining above 75% for six consecutive weeks [1] - 56.18% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while 24.10% are at moderate levels, 12.64% at low levels, and 7.08% are in cash [1] Group 2 - Dongxing Securities notes that after fluctuations due to the tariff war and earnings disclosures in April, market concerns about index levels have decreased, shifting focus to market rhythm and opportunities [2] - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase, with the second quarter's fundamentals still unclear, and concerns about the fundamentals have not changed [2] - Eastern Securities highlights that substantial progress in China-US tariff negotiations has reduced economic downward pressure, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2]

中原证券认为，周二A股市场高开高走、小幅震荡上行，盘中汽车、食品饮料、光学光电子以及文化传 媒等行业表现较好；航运港口、航天航空、煤炭以及房地产等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震 荡上行的运行特征。一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，经济复苏动能强劲，企业盈利增速拐点显现，现金流 改善为市场提供基本面支撑。人民币汇率企稳回升，外资流入预期增强，流动性环境整体宽松。预计短 期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，市场有望延续结构性行情，政策支持与流动性宽松为市场提供底部支撑。 仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变化情况。 东莞证券认为，周二，大盘高开后红盘震荡，北证50、微盘股指数均创历史新高。海外市场方面，美联 储副主席杰斐逊表示，在制定货币政策时，将把穆迪下调美国信用评级视为普通的经济数据；纽约联储 主席威廉姆斯表示，在贸易动荡的背景下，对外国投资者撤离美国资产的担忧确实存在，但他认为，美 国"避风港"地位目前并未面临紧迫风险。国内市场方面，4月经济数据顶住压力稳定增长。往后看，外 部环境不确定性仍存在，但当前A股市场具备较高的战略定力和更强的韧性，大盘在此位置也有进一步 上行的动力。短期市场或维持震荡走势，长期看市场有 ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that despite last month's tariff turmoil causing market fluctuations, the rapid and significant market rebound indicates that investors have fallen into a state of "extreme complacency" [1] - Dimon noted that the market initially dropped by 10% and then rebounded by 10%, which he believes reflects an unusual sense of complacency among investors [1] - Technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky from BTIG highlighted that the five-day moving average of the put/call ratio in the options market is nearing a five-year low, suggesting that investors are increasingly favoring call options, anticipating a continued market rise [1][3] Group 2 - Krinsky expressed concerns that while the current market uptrend is strong, the narrow trading range and extreme put/call ratio indicate excessive optimism, and a market correction may be imminent [3] - Following President Trump's announcement of large-scale "reciprocal" tariffs on multiple trading partners on April 2, the stock market quickly fell, with the S&P 500 index nearing bear market territory [3] - Despite the concerns raised by Moody's downgrade of the last AAA sovereign credit rating for the U.S., which led to increased worries about the U.S. fiscal situation and a brief market sell-off, the S&P 500 rebounded again, achieving its sixth consecutive day of gains [3] Group 3 - Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, pointed out that investors are "willfully ignoring" the unsettling signals from the bond market, suggesting that the rapid rebound in 2023 and early 2024 has led many to view downside risks as short-term noise [4] - Green emphasized that the current macro conditions have fundamentally changed, with ongoing supply chain disruptions, volatile energy markets, and shrinking real wages in many developing countries [4] Group 4 - Despite attempts to maintain an upward trend, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of 0.8% late Tuesday, ultimately closing down by 0.39%, ending its six-day winning streak [5]

首先，中美贸易谈判结果落地，市场关注焦点转向国内经济。5 月 12 日下午，新华社发布了《中 美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，中美两国同时大幅下调之前加征的关税。中美经贸谈判的效率和互相减 免关税的幅度总体超出投资者预期。当然，四月中旬以来，市场一直在修复之前的跌幅，部分宽基指数 甚至已经超过了四月初的点位，也就说修复逻辑也有很大程度上反馈在市场上了。因此，四月的经济数 据、五月初降准降息的效果和相关对冲政策的落实正在成为短期市场的关注焦点。 其次，两市波动收敛，成交萎缩。周一，两市低开后略有修复，全天呈现窄幅波动特征。两市量能 在 1 万亿元左右，较上周五继续减少，近期处于连续缩量状态。微观结构上，全天个股涨多跌少，涨停 股票数量破百。当天市场热点主要集中在房地产和国防军工等行业。投资风格方面，中小盘涨幅领先， 大盘蓝筹表现低迷。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指处于上有压力，下有支撑的震荡波动。沪指于 4 月中旬逐步企稳反弹，目 前已经回补了 4 月 7 日的向下跳空缺口，上方正面临着今年一季度高点和去年四季度的成交密集区的压 力，预计继续反弹的阻力将有所增大。当然，市场的主要中长期均线仍提供了重要的技术支撑，保持震 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite numerous recent macro - events, the stock index showed a lackluster response. The four major broad - based indices had a pattern of rising and then falling, indicating significant short - term technical pressure. Although the progress of Sino - US talks this week exceeded market expectations, the market's one - sided rally sentiment was limited. It is expected that a retracement is needed before a second upward push. The current market situation can be compared to the second half of 2019, and it is in the first stage of Sino - US negotiations, with the trend remaining a sideways market. In the medium - term, there is a bullish outlook, waiting for a game - changing factor like the 2020 pandemic. [3] - In terms of portfolio, compared with the previous trade war period, China's policies have been pre - emptively implemented this time, and the easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are more substantial. It is expected that the small - cap style will be dominant, and investors can participate in the IM - IF spread when the price is low. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China took counter - measures including tariff and non - tariff measures in response to the US's unreasonable tariff hikes on China under the pretext of fentanyl, and these counter - measures remain in effect. [4] - As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating compared to the previous month. In the first four months of this year, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan. [4] 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review 3.2.1 Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed a differentiated upward trend. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 1.69%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.21%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.30%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.15%. In terms of sectors, insurance (+5.15%) and shipping (+4.94%) led the gains, while aerospace and military industry (- 0.82%) and construction machinery (- 1.90%) lagged. More than 2300 stocks rose, and 91 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect. [4] 3.2.2 Technical Tracking - After the previous oversold rebound, the daily - level technical indicators of the stock index have generally recovered, while the weekly and monthly indicators still show a sideways trend. [4] 3.2.3 Fund Flow - The trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly, remaining above 1.3 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. Market sentiment remained cautious. The sustainability of a short - term one - sided rally is questionable, and the trading volume in the next two days needs to be observed. [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary and Operation Suggestions 3.3.1 Core Logic Summary - The current market situation is similar to the second half of 2019, in the first stage of Sino - US negotiations, with a sideways trend. In the medium - term, it is bullish, waiting for a game - changing factor. The small - cap style is expected to be dominant. [3] 3.3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Due to the under - expected speculative sentiment, investors should respect the technical pressure. In the short - term, they can either wait and see or do intraday rolling long on IM, and increase the position appropriately when there is a sharp decline. They can also participate in the IM - IF spread when the price is low. [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of options rose and then fell yesterday. The current - month IV of the CSI 300 is around 14 - 15%. Given the low short - term volatility and the rapidly changing news, investors can continue to bet on short - term straddles, but should pay attention to short - term positions. [3]

廖市无双：补缺过后，大势结构如何演化？20250511 摘要 如何看待当前市场风险和机会？ 当前市场风险主要集中在尖峰筹码带形成的阻力区域，即 3,357 点附近。在此 区域内可能会有解套筹码涌出，对指数构成压力。同时，上证指数和恒生科技 指数均显示出需要进行回踩确认动作。例如，上证指数预计将在 3,040 至 3,357 点之间波动，而恒生科技从 6,185 跌至 4,300，下行深度较大，需要通 过 B 浪反弹确认 C 浪调整。 机会方面，由于人民币升值及港股表现对节后 A 股 走势产生积极影响，加之中美谈话利好叠加，使得近期市场表现较为强劲。投 资者可以关注短期内由于这些因素带来的交易机会，但需谨慎应对潜在阻力区 域及震荡行情。 本周市场出现了哪些显著变化？ 本周市场经历了显著的波动，尤其是周五出现了冲高回落的情况，这符合预期。 自 4 月 7 日以来，市场一直在反弹，但随着中美双方刚开始谈判，关税战仍在 持续，仅有沟通渠道，但结果尚不明确。在这种情况下，大盘已经转回，这是 一种非常强劲的表现。之前一些套牢筹码离场是可以理解的，因为劫后余生和 大的不确定性仍然存在。本周市场结构需要仔细分析。前两个交易日 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its oscillation in the short to medium term, with accelerated style rotation driven by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - In May, a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" may re-emerge, starting with technology growth stocks, followed by a shift towards defensive assets as macroeconomic risks increase [1] - The recovery of the consumption sector is anticipated after the defensive phase, supported by policy dividends and improving consumption data, leading to new investment opportunities driven by domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The market shows resilience due to dual drivers of policy support and economic recovery, despite short-term fluctuations in trading volume reflecting cautious sentiment [2] - The first quarter saw a positive turnaround in net profit growth for all A-shares, indicating improving corporate earnings and strengthening internal economic recovery [2] - The effects of monetary policy easing and long-term capital inflows are expected to enhance liquidity, supporting a continued recovery in consumption and investment sectors [2]