光伏行业：24 年全行业盈利能力下 滑，抢装带动 25 年 Q1 业绩回暖 ——24 年年报及 25 年一季报业绩综述 24 年光伏全行业营收下滑盈利转负，25 年 Q1 亏损幅度环比缩减。随着行业 供需错配，主产业链价格下跌，24 年光伏板块营收利润大幅下滑。24 年，光 伏全行业实现总营业收入 8410.82 亿元，下滑 24.4%，实现归母净利润-347.98 亿元，下滑 140.0%。2024 年全年光伏行业毛利率中值 8.07%，同比下降 9.47 个百分点，净利率中值 0.22%，同比下降 5.49 个百分点，创下近年来低点。 2025Q1 在政策带动的抢装下，行业需求排产复苏，带动业绩回暖，2025Q1 全行业实现归母净利润-68.38 亿元，环比减亏 72.2%，行业毛利率环比上升 1.91 个百分点至 6.76%，净利率环比上升 2.66 个百分点至-3.46%。 24 年主产业链全面由盈转亏，支架/逆变器板块逆势增长。2024 年，光伏板块 收入普遍下滑，各细分领域中，仅银浆/铝边框/支架/焊带/逆变器实现营收正增 长，收入同比增速分别为 39.6%/37.2%/31.4%/20.4%/6 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 人形机器人如火如荼，关税下降或带动美国 储能抢装 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 投资建议：宁德时代（动力&储能电池全球龙头、盈利能力和排产均超预期）、三花智控（热管理全球龙 头、特斯拉机器人总成空间巨大）、比亚迪（电动车销量持续向好且结构升级、全民智驾超预期）、汇川 技术（通用自动化弱复苏龙头 Alpha 明显、联合动力持续超预期）、阳光电源（逆变器全球龙头、海外大 储优势显著、估值极低）、科达利（结构件全球龙头稳健增长、大力布局机器人优势显著打造第二增长曲 线）、亿纬锂能（动力&储能锂电上量盈利向好并走出特色之路、消费类电池稳健）、雷赛智能（伺服控 制器龙头企业、机器人关节批量优势明显）、浙江荣泰（云母龙头增长确定、微型丝杠优势明显）、富临 精工（高压实铁锂领先、机器人布局深厚）、北特科技（汽零稳步增长、丝杠具备领先优势）、大金重工 （海风出口布局厚积薄发、量利双升超预期）、斯菱股份（车后轴承市场稳定增长、打造谐波第二增长曲 线）、祥鑫科技（汽零和结构件稳健、积极布局人形）、德业股份（新兴市场开拓先 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After the end of the PV rush installation, the terminal has entered a demand vacuum period. The overall PV industry is facing challenges such as a decline in demand and a drop in prices. The report suggests a short - selling strategy for polysilicon futures [2][4]. - Globally, the expected new PV installation capacity in 2025 is about 511GW, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, indicating a continuous slowdown in the growth rate of installation [67]. Summary According to the Directory 1. PV Terminal Demand Data Tracking 1.1 China PV Installation Tracking - From January to March 2025, China's new PV installation was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 31%. In March, the new PV installation was 20.24GW, a year - on - year increase of 124%. In Q1 2025, commercial and industrial distributed installations increased significantly, accounting for 52%, while centralized installations accounted for about 40% and household distributed installations only 9% [2][9]. - Policy factors such as the "430" and "531" rush - installation effects are expected to lead to a month - on - month increase in installations from April to May, and a decline in the third quarter, entering a "vacuum period". In the fourth quarter, there may be a conventional rush - installation effect, but it will be weaker than in previous years. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 240GW, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [2][14]. 1.2 European PV Installation Tracking - In March 2025, China exported about 7.3GW of PV modules to Europe, a month - on - month increase of 57% and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 18.3GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [3][21]. - In the short term, the demand for PV module imports in Europe may increase in the second quarter. However, due to the weak European economy and the reduction of government subsidies, the overall PV installation growth rate in Europe is expected to decline. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 71GW, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [3][23]. 1.3 US PV Installation Tracking - In February 2025, the new PV installation in the US was 3GW, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 99%. The cumulative installation from January to February was 6.4GW, a year - on - year increase of 22% [29]. - Policy factors such as trade barriers and the new president's support for traditional energy have hindered the development of the US PV market. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 32GW, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [3][32]. 1.4 Indian PV Installation Tracking - From January to March 2025, India's cumulative new PV installation was 7.8GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Local government subsidies have promoted the development of the PV industry. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 35GW [36][37]. 1.5 Other Market PV Installation Tracking - PV installations in other markets are affected by policies and subsidies. For example, in Brazil, the cumulative PV installation from January to February 2025 increased by 6% year - on - year [40]. 2. PV Industry Chain Links Dynamic Tracking 2.1 Silicon Material Link - As of May 16, the price of N - type re - feeding material was 38,750 yuan/ton, and the price of P - type dense material was 34,000 yuan/ton. Short - term production is expected to decline marginally. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for polysilicon futures [46][47]. 2.2 Silicon Wafer Link - As of May 16, the prices of N - type 182, 210, and 210R silicon wafers were 0.94 yuan/piece, 1.29 yuan/piece, and 1.09 yuan/piece respectively. The production of silicon wafers is expected to decline in May and continue to decline from May to June. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in demand [49][50]. 2.3 Battery Cell Link - As of May 16, the prices of TOPCon 182, 210, and 210R battery cells were 0.258 yuan/watt, 0.278 yuan/watt, and 0.265 yuan/watt respectively. The production of battery cells is expected to decrease in May. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory is increasing, which will drive down prices [53]. 2.4 PV Module Link - As of May 16, the prices of TOPCon 182, 210, and 210R distributed PV modules were 0.689 yuan/watt, 0.694 yuan/watt, and 0.684 yuan/watt respectively. The production of PV modules is expected to decline in May and June. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the procurement demand during the year - end rush - installation in the fourth quarter [56]. 3. PV Industry Chain Profit Flow - The entire PV industry chain is in a situation of over - capacity. After the end of the rush - installation, prices across the industry chain have declined, squeezing profit margins. The inventory pressure in the upstream silicon material link is high, and it is difficult to support prices. It is recommended to pay attention to when downstream prices stop falling [59]. 4. Summary - The end of the "430" and "531" rush - installation periods has led to a demand vacuum in the PV terminal. China's new PV installation is expected to decline in 2025. The PV markets in Europe and the US are also facing challenges, and the overall global PV installation growth rate is expected to slow down [64][65]. - The PV industry chain is in a situation of over - capacity, with prices falling and profit margins being squeezed. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for polysilicon futures and pay attention to downstream price trends and upstream production cuts [66].

2025 年一季度，由于" 430 "（ 4 月 30 日前并网项目享受原有电价政策）和" 531 "（ 6 月 1 日后增 量项目全面市场化）两个政策推动刺激，光伏市场呈现出火爆局面，各个企业纷纷加快项目进度，抢装 潮带动组件、电池、硅片等价格大幅上涨。 4 月初， N 型 G10L 单晶硅片成交均价在 1.28 元 / 片， N 型 G12R 单晶硅片成交均价在 1.54 元 / 片， N 型 G12 成交均价在 1.59 元 / 片； 较年初涨幅为 16.36% 、 28.33% 、 11.97% 。另外，电池价格达到 0.32 元 /W ，组件价格达到 0.78 元 /W ，较年初涨幅为 14.29% 与 14.71% 。 然而，随着抢装潮的结束，终端需求迅速缩减，各环节价格也随之大幅下跌。五一节后， N 型 G10L 成交均价在 1.01 元 / 片， N 型 G12R 成交均价在 1.12 元 / 片， N 型 G12 成交均价在 1.35 元 / 片。硅片价格下跌的主要原因是抢装结束，终端需求回落。具体来看，五一假期结束后，下游组件和电 池环节订单量明显大幅减少，买方低价采购意愿强烈，同时部分硅 ...

关税谈判超预期下的电新板块机会梳理 20250513 摘要 • 美国对中国锂电池及相关产品关税政策调整频繁，短期内储能电池总税率 降至 40.9%，但若未来三个月无协议，将升至 64.5%，2026 年或进一步 上调，影响下游储能项目经济性及美国本土装机需求，短期内可能出现抢 装潮。 • 动力电池受 IRA 条款及 FEOC 限制，对美直接敞口不大；消费电子锂电池、 电动工具电源等对美间接敞口较大，受关税影响，市场担忧需求萎缩及供 应链切换，相关公司股价已出现调整。 • 美国储能需求占全球 30%，关税下调预计边际改善明显，40%多的总税 率下，储能项目 IRR 可支撑产业链分担。特斯拉北美储能需求将更有保障， 预计利润将上修到 3.5 亿美元。 • 3M 公司储能业务出货预期受关税影响曾被市场悲观抹去，但港股发行压 制因素改善推动股价上涨，若储能抢装落地，业绩和估值有望向上修正， 2026 年海外产能释放将改善关税风险。 • 宏发股份对美直接敞口较小，但间接敞口较大，受益于关税下调及未发货 订单确认，二季度毛利率有望改善，全年利润维持高位，具备投资价值。 Q&A 美国对华关税调整对锂电池和新能源车零部件行业 ...

投资者关系活动 类别 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 √路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 建信基金：吴昂达；睿诚投资：邓 胜； 东方财富：张志扬；德邦证券：王华炳。 时间 2025 年 5 月 9 日 地点 陆家嘴银城中路 99 号建行大厦、陆家嘴东路 166 号中国保险大厦 上市公司接待人 员姓名 董事、副总经理、董事会秘书 吴达明 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 一、贵司聚醚胺产能 31,000 吨/年，哪些牌号产品用连续法工艺 生产？哪些牌号产品用间歇法工艺生产？如果风电用 D230 产品需求 旺盛时会如何处理？国内聚醚胺生产企业较多，但聚醚胺仍是贵司利 润主要增长渠道，请问贵司的优势在哪里？ 总体来说，公司聚醚胺需求量较大的牌号产品通常采用连续法工 艺生产，相对而言产品需求量较小的牌号产品通常采用间歇法工艺生 产；去年 7 月份以来，公司对聚醚胺产品的出货结构进行大幅调整， 非风电用小品种牌号聚醚胺，尤其是应用于新领域聚醚胺供应量明显 提升。如果后续风电用 D230 产品需求旺盛，公司会及时调整聚醚胺 产品的出货结构和相关生产线。公司 2002 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market have changed little, as reflected in the large difference in the increase between near - and far - month contracts. Since April, the "rush installation" of photovoltaic terminals has gradually ended, and strong - stimulus policies have created a negative feedback. With the "tariff" dispute, the expectation of export improvement is weak. Polysilicon (280,000 tons), silicon wafers, and battery cells have all accumulated inventory for 4 consecutive weeks. Supply - demand balance requires greater production cuts, and there may be an expectation of increased production during the wet season. The large rebound of the near - month 06 contract is mainly due to the leading enterprises' announcement not to use the futures delivery warehouse for destocking and the exchange having only 60 lots of warehouse receipts, which causes market panic about delivery. The benchmark delivery product has a higher standard than the spot dense material, and the basis provides bottom support. In the short term, the significant increase in the volatility of the 06 contract attracts long - position funds to enter the market, but the weak fundamentals will limit the price rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly, and it is not advisable to continue chasing high during the session for the near - month contract. The resistance above 38,000 yuan (the current price range of re - feedstock) increases incrementally, and short - term operations need to be cautious [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The near - month polysilicon 06 contract has deeply declined, over - exhausting the bearish drivers. The shortage of the delivery benchmark product has reversed market sentiment, and the price once rose by 3.34% during the session. The closing price of PS2506 was 36,950 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.43%, a trading volume of 455,000 lots, an open interest of 6,752 lots, and a net increase of 4,212 lots [4] - **Future Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited changes. Since April, the "rush installation" of photovoltaic terminals has ended, policies have a negative feedback, and export improvement expectations are weak. Polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have accumulated inventory for 4 consecutive weeks. Supply - demand balance needs larger production cuts and there may be increased production in the wet season. The 06 contract rebounded due to delivery - related factors. The basis supports the price, but weak fundamentals limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly, and short - term operations should be cautious [4] 3.2 Market News - As of May 8, 2025, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 40 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous trading day [5] - Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Trina Solar released their Q1 2025 performance reports and held performance briefings. During the reporting period, the four companies had losses of 1.436 billion yuan, 1.39 billion yuan, 1.638 billion yuan, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, with a total loss of 5.784 billion yuan. Longi Green Energy reduced its losses year - on - year, while the other three companies' losses decreased by 218.2%, 239.35%, and 355.88% respectively year - on - year [5]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 2.67 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 65% to 42 million [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 720 million, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25% and a year-on-year increase of 6%, but the net profit was a loss of 27 million, reflecting a significant decline [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 718 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47.5%, while the net profit was a loss of 3 million, indicating a recovery in profitability [1] Group 2 - The company’s shipment of welding strips in 2024 was 31,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 20%, with Q4 shipments estimated at around 8,400 tons [1] - The gross margin decreased to approximately 4% in Q4 2024 due to market downturns and increased competition, but improved to about 6% in Q1 2025 due to domestic photovoltaic demand [1] - The company’s operating expenses for 2024 were 125 million, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with an expense ratio of 4.7% [2] Group 3 - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 33 million, 52 million, and 68 million respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22% in 2025 [2] - The company is rated as "accumulate" due to expected continued pressure on profitability in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 [2]

| Clarkers | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 唐策略东 | | | | | | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | 研究院:李泽矩 | 投资咨询号: Z0000116 | | | | | | 从业资格号:F0251925 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 行业板块 | | | | 短期建议股指期货轻仓观望,静待市场方向明朗。由于五一期间海外不确 | 股指 | 震荡 | 定性较大,加上当前期权波动率处于较低位置,节前可考虑介入股指期权 | | | | | 双买策略。 | 宏观金融 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | 国债 | 震荡 | | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | 关税不确定性仍高企,商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | 白银 | 農汤 日治 | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期谨防价格回调风险。 | 農汤 | 铜 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 04 月 30 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭 ...