Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the commodity market rose 1.13% overall, with precious metals leading at 9.41%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. Short - term geopolitical disturbances are numerous, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2][6] - The US economic data shows resilience, Fed officials are negative about short - term rate cuts, and it's almost certain that the rate will remain unchanged in January. In China, December's import - export and social financing data are better than expected, indicating continuous and moderate economic improvement. [2] - The nomination of the next Fed Chair may be decided this week. [2] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Performance Summary - **Market Index** - Last week, the overall commodity market rose 1.13%. Precious metals led with a 9.41% increase, non - ferrous metals rose slightly by 0.89%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. [2][6] - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with non - ferrous and precious metal sectors having larger fluctuations. [2][6] - Only the precious metal and black sectors had net capital inflows, with 32.5 billion yuan flowing into the precious metal sector. [2][6] - **Top Gainers and Losers** - The top - rising varieties were up 20.03%, 14.95%, and 4.1%. The top - falling varieties were glass, rapeseed meal, and a certain variety, down 3.58%, 3.55%, and 3.39% respectively. [6] 3.2 Outlook for Each Sector - **Precious Metals** - The Iran situation is tense, the US is pressuring Greenland and imposing additional tariffs on many European countries. Trump's challenges to the global order make the upward trend of precious metals unchanged. In the short term, they may fluctuate strongly. [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - Recent domestic and international data are positive, indicating economic recovery. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the macro - environment is neutral to positive. The SHFE inventory continues to accumulate, the LME is in a destocking state, and most spot premiums are weakening. Supply - side contraction risks still exist, supporting the sector's prices. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [2] - **Black Metals** - The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, production has slightly decreased, and the inventory - building pace has slowed. December's steel exports reached a new high. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream acceptance, blast furnace复产 has slowed, and hot metal production has decreased. The peak of iron ore's phased supply has passed, port inventories continue to increase, and the structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. The coal price may fluctuate weakly due to rising total inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [3] - **Energy** - The Iran situation is tense but under control, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. The market is becoming desensitized to geopolitical issues, and the geopolitical premium space is limited unless a conflict actually occurs. The latest EIA weekly data shows a significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. In the first quarter of 2026, global crude oil supply - demand shows significant inventory pressure, and oversupply is the main factor suppressing oil prices. Oil prices may be under pressure in the short term. [3] - **Chemicals** - For polyester varieties, the short - term upward driving force has weakened. For building material varieties, PVC's operating rate has slightly increased, some enterprises' exports have increased, but downstream operating rates have declined, and procurement enthusiasm is low. Attention should be paid to whether export tax rebates will drive export - rushing and create month - spread arbitrage opportunities. In 2026, PVC is expected to reduce production capacity, and the futures price center is expected to rise. Glass production capacity has been continuously reduced to 150100 tons. In the long term, glass supply will decrease, and supply - demand pressure will ease. As the downstream approaches the holiday, seasonal inventory accumulation may occur. [4] - **Agricultural Products** - Brazil's IBGE expects the 2026 soybean output to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The impact of La Nina is gradually fading, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has returned as the main trading logic. The US biomass fuel policy's certainty has increased, and the policy is expected to be announced in early March. In the short term, oilseeds and fats may fluctuate. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs** - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.85% - 2.90%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 263.587 billion yuan, with a 0.79% increase. The total trading volume was 754.651862 million shares, with a 2.19% increase. [37] - **Other Commodity ETFs** - The energy and chemical ETF had a - 0.96% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.86% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 3.78% return, and the silver fund had a 23.15% return. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 279.532 billion yuan, with a 1.85% increase, and the total trading volume was 2288.502384 million shares, with an 8.63% increase. [37][39]

Core Viewpoint - The average temperature in China since the beginning of winter has been the second highest on record, with significant regional variations and multiple contributing factors identified [1][2]. Group 1: Temperature Data - The national average temperature from December 1, 2025, to January 13, 2026, was -2.1°C, which is 1.5°C higher than the historical average, marking the second highest since 1961 [1]. - Most regions in China experienced temperatures close to or above the historical average, with Hubei and Hunan provinces recording the highest temperatures since 1961, while five provinces including Shandong and Shaanxi had the second highest [1]. - The northeastern region and parts of Inner Mongolia and western Yunnan were the only areas with lower than average temperatures [1]. Group 2: Causes of Temperature Increase - The warm winter temperatures are attributed to a weakened Arctic vortex and a lack of active blocking high pressure in the Ural Mountains, leading to a reduced intensity of cold air affecting China [1][2]. - The influence of global warming is also noted, with an average increase of 0.4°C every decade since 1961 for winter temperatures in China, and a trend of warmer winters during La Niña years [2]. - Other factors influencing winter climate include Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation systems, indicating a multi-factorial impact on temperature variations [2].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月15日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | 女女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | 女女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | | | 玉米 | な女女 | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★★★ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆震荡调整,跌势放缓,今日吉林省贸易粮国产大豆销售2025年产大豆3200吨,全部成交,底价3960元/ 吨，成交均价4325元/吨，溢价365元/吨，吉林贸易粮太豆销售量和价格表现好。目前国产大豆供应端 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations in sales and pricing, with significant changes in import and export activities impacting the overall supply dynamics. Group 1: Market Transactions - On January 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major oil mills nationwide reached 928,200 tons, an increase of 580,000 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 134,600 tons [1] - Coastal regions reported ordinary protein soybean meal basis quotes ranging from M2605-20 to M2605-60 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 10 to 20 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week [1] Group 2: Export and Import Insights - Private exporters reported sales of 334,000 tons of soybeans to China, with cumulative purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year expected to be around 11.5 million tons, nearing the target of 12 million tons [2] - In December, China's soybean imports totaled 8.044 million tons, with total imports for the year reaching a record high of 111.833 million tons [3] Group 3: Production and Demand Trends - Domestic oil mills are increasing their operating rates, leading to a rise in soybean meal production, which is essential for feed and livestock enterprises preparing for peak season demand [3] - The USDA supply and demand report indicated that U.S. soybeans are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the market closely monitoring export conditions and potential weather impacts in South America [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment value [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment timing [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency but low market operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, demonstrating a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Pig: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Egg: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, pig, and egg, and provides corresponding investment ratings and strategies [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are undergoing a correction after reaching a high, with profit - taking at the peak. Short - term policy increases grain supply, but the supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and demand is cautious. Attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the USDA report, US soybeans are in a weak oscillation. China's soybean imports reached a record high last year. Domestic oil mills' production is increasing for peak - season demand. The probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1 is 75%, and the focus returns to US soybean exports and South American weather. If the South American weather is stable, soybean meal prices will follow the weak trend of US soybeans [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean oil is strong due to positive biodiesel expectations, although the USDA report cut its biodiesel use. Palm oil had a short - term price correction after Indonesia's B50 policy stance. The current rise is driven by demand expectations and policies, but supply factors like South American soybean harvest and Malaysian palm oil inventory should also be considered, with a range - bound view [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products declined today as the market focuses on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. There are expectations of a “loosening” of China - Canada rapeseed trade policies. Coastal oil mills' Australian rapeseed is not yet processed, and inventories are falling. If China - Canada relations do not improve as expected, rapeseed prices may rebound. This week, rapeseed prices are expected to be weak [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are in a weak oscillation, and US corn is still seeking a bottom. Policy - based grain supply is increasing, but overall inventory is low, and sellers are reluctant to sell. Downstream enterprises are starting the Spring Festival stocking. The main driving factors are unclear, and futures will be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [7] Pig - The pig futures market is rising with increased positions, and the 03 contract hit a new high. Spot prices are stable. The strength of the macro and commodity markets is spreading to the pig market. However, due to increased supply, pig prices may hit a second bottom next year. Attention should be paid to the game between pre - Spring Festival supply and demand [8] Egg - Egg spot prices are slightly stronger, and the Hebei price is rising. The futures market is weak. Chicken - chick replenishment from August to December last year decreased by about 10% year - on - year, leading to a low number of new - laying hens in H1 2026. Egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand and supply reduction, egg prices are expected to rise. For H1 2026 contracts, a long - at - low strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy is recommended [9]

——巴西中南部降水季节性走弱 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月12日 本周重要气象提示——巴西 当前巴西中南部进入甘蔗的压榨后期，对于当前需要收获的甘蔗而言，需要晴朗少雨的天气，有利于机 械收割，减少甘蔗含水量，提升蔗糖分。需要昼夜温差大，有利于甘蔗糖分转化与累积。 巴西中南部当前处于26/27榨季甘蔗生长阶段，受拉尼娜影响，整体降水偏低，近期降水有所持续偏低， 土壤湿度持续回落，处于历史最低水平。 南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告 巴西中南部近期降水减少，对于新榨季的甘蔗生长造成一定影响，当前的土壤湿度已经处于历史低位水 平，不利于甘蔗的拔节。 巴西产区地图预报：降水&土壤湿度 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 . source：浩淞风云 南华研究 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 巴西产区气象跟踪：中南部近期降水偏少 土壤湿度偏低 巴西中南部甘蔗产区降水量（含预报）：一季度 source： 自有数据,南华研究 大雨 mm 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

期货研究报告|卫星农业专题 2026-01-11 卫星遥感监测报告及南美降水展望 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 薛钧元 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 内容摘要 本报告利用卫星遥感、气象数据和实地观测等多源数据，结合自有产量模型，对 2025 年 12 月巴西大豆、玉米、阿根廷大豆和马来印尼棕榈油进行监测，监测显示，此次拉 尼娜对南美影响有限，12 月整体长势指标维持在正常范围，1 月甚至突破历史新高， 根据自有产量模型测算，此次单产整体上修，巴西大豆单产预估为 3.61MT/HA，较 USDA 上月数据增长 0.02 MT/HA，此次上调后单产数据接近 2024/25 年度的 3.62 MT/HA，照此趋势今年单产有望突破去年，甚至创出历史新高。基于第一季玉米长势 状况（占比 27%左右），也上修玉米单产预估到 6.05 MT/HA。阿根廷整体状况也持续 向好，单产上修至 2.97 MT/HA，较上月 USDA 数据增长 0.03 MT/HA。根据预测数据 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | なな☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国内大豆表现偏强,政策端竞价拍卖显示出溢价成交,且成交率高。国产大豆现货端收购价格也出现上调。进 口大豆方面南美新季大豆目前仍然是维持丰产预期,目前南美天气风险偏低,预计供应端的风险仍然偏低。国 内大豆进口成本下跌,盘面压榨毛利润表现较好。短期持续关注国产大 ...

Group 1 - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has seen a net inflow of over 140 million yuan in the past 10 days, indicating potential upward movement in coal prices due to supply tightening [1] - Current coal inventory at northern ports is high, and demand from downstream power plants has not significantly improved, leading to a year-on-year decline in daily consumption [1] - The coal market is primarily supported by long-term contracts, with spot market activity being limited, resulting in weak price support [1] Group 2 - Climate experts indicate that China is entering a La Niña phase, increasing the likelihood of a cold winter in the southeast coastal regions, which may stabilize coal prices [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and related services [1] - The index is representative of the coal industry and focuses on the coal sector for investment allocation [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A weak La Niña phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, currently having limited impact on palm oil - producing areas [1]. - Recent rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has increased, with significant improvement in soil moisture in southern Peninsular Malaysia and some areas in Indonesia. However, the rainfall is not persistent, and there is a risk of soil drying in 2026 [1]. - Short - term catastrophic weather disturbances are insufficient, but continuous attention should be paid to areas with low soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of next year [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon [1]. 3.2 Precipitation Forecast in Producing Areas - Recent rainfall has improved, and rainfall in southern Peninsular Malaysia has increased [3]. 3.3 Soil Moisture in Producing Areas - **Indonesia** - In Jambi, soil moisture has improved year - on - year at the end of the year [22]. - In West Kalimantan, soil moisture has increased, but cumulative precipitation is lower year - on - year [28]. - In Central Kalimantan, the soil moisture level is higher year - on - year [34]. - In East Kalimantan, precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [41]. - In Riau, rainfall has slightly improved at the end of the year, but soil moisture is still slightly behind the same period in previous years [47]. - In South Sumatra, soil moisture is currently low, but it is expected to exceed last year's level at the end of the year [54]. - In North Sumatra, rainfall is limited at the end of the year, and soil moisture remains low [58]. - **Malaysia** - In Johor, rainfall has increased, and soil moisture has improved [65]. - In Pahang, rainfall has returned to a low level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [71]. - In Perak, rainfall has decreased at the end of the year, and soil moisture has declined [78]. - In Sabah, cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [83]. - In Sarawak, cumulative rainfall is insufficient, and soil moisture is the same as last year [89].