Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may experience a short - term repair after the Politburo meeting. Three major concerns in the bond market have been alleviated, and the bond interest rate has started a repair trend. However, in the long - term, the probability of interest rates breaking through the low point is small, and the interest rate center may fluctuate upwards [4][5][9] Summary by Related Contents 1. Policy Content of the Politburo Meeting - The meeting set a "good" tone for the economy in the first half of the year, stating that the economy was stable with progress, and high - quality development achieved new results. In the second half of the year, economic work emphasizes "enhancing awareness of potential perils and adhering to a bottom - line mindset", and policy implementation may emphasize execution while reserving some flexibility [3][6] - Macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner. Fiscal policy should be more proactive, and monetary policy should be moderately loose. Policy tools should support key areas such as science and technology innovation, consumption, small and micro - enterprises, and foreign trade [3] - Science and technology innovation and boosting domestic demand are important policy measures. The meeting emphasized the leading role of science and technology innovation in new - quality productivity and placed more emphasis on consumption than investment in domestic demand [3] 2. Factors Affecting the Bond Market - Recently, the bond market has been weak, mainly suppressed by risk preference and inflation trading. The strengthening of the equity and commodity markets since June has suppressed bond market sentiment, and the "anti - involution" has raised inflation expectations [7] - Before the meeting, concerns in the bond market mainly included the possibility of excessive total - volume policies, real - estate policies, and the confirmation of "anti - involution" policies. After the meeting, these concerns were basically dispelled [4][5][7] 3. Analysis of the Bond Market's Future Trend - In the short - term, the bond market may repair. The meeting confirmed the economic achievements in the first half of the year, with a low probability of excessive total - volume policies. It did not directly mention real - estate policies, and the "anti - involution" statement was weakened, which may lead to a decline in inflation expectations. Additionally, moderately loose monetary policy also supports the bond market [4][5][10] - In the long - term, the probability of interest rates breaking through the low point is small, and the interest rate center may fluctuate upwards. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities from oversold rebounds rather than heavy - position participation [9]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.22%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,441.854 billion yuan [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as social services, automotive, and pharmaceutical biotechnology led the gains, while steel, banking, and non-ferrous metals lagged behind. Concept sectors like animal vaccines, generic drug consistency evaluation, and artemisinin saw significant increases, whereas lead metal, silicon energy, and zinc metal faced declines [2][7] Important News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting on July 16 to discuss key policy measures to strengthen domestic circulation. The meeting emphasized the importance of enhancing domestic circulation as a strategic move for stable economic growth, focusing on boosting consumption and optimizing supply [3][8] - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing on July 16, with Vice Premier He Lifeng highlighting China's role in the global supply chain and its commitment to promoting cooperation and stability in the global industrial chain [3][8] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector showed a lackluster performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit growth rates of 2.46% and 0.28% respectively in Q1, marking a decline compared to the previous year. The sector's stock prices fell by 7.33%, ranking second to last among 31 industries [9][10] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a focus on boosting domestic demand to achieve GDP growth targets, with comprehensive policies aimed at enhancing consumption across various sectors [10] - The food and beverage industry is witnessing three main consumption trends: rational consumption, emotional consumption, and health-oriented consumption, which are driving changes in consumer behavior and creating new growth opportunities [10] Investment Opportunities in Food and Beverage Sector - Growth Tracks: - Energy drinks are experiencing high demand, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 10.2% from 2024 to 2029. Companies with competitive advantages in this segment are recommended for investment [12] - The snack industry is evolving with new sales channels and product innovations, particularly in health-oriented snacks [12] - The health supplement market is seeing structural investment opportunities driven by increased health awareness among younger consumers [12] - Marginal Improvement Tracks: - The beer industry is expected to see improved profitability due to cost reductions and a recovery in mid-to-high-end demand driven by the restaurant sector [13] - The condiment market is benefiting from lower raw material costs and a growing demand for health-oriented products [13] - The dairy sector is anticipated to recover as inventory levels normalize and demand increases due to consumption stimulus policies [13] - Bottoming Tracks: - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of inventory destocking, with performance expected to remain under pressure. However, the market has adjusted expectations for liquor company profits, potentially limiting downside risk [14]

Market Overview - The convertible bond market continued to rise during the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index increasing by +0.8%, marking three consecutive weeks of growth [3] - Year-to-date, the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by +8.8%, outperforming the China All Share Index, which has increased by +6.2% [3][7] Performance by Rating and Size - High-rated bonds (AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (AA), and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) saw weekly changes of +0.84%, +1.02%, and +0.95% respectively, with medium-rated bonds showing the highest increase [4] - In terms of bond size, large-scale bonds (over 5 billion) increased by +0.86%, medium-scale bonds (between 500 million and 5 billion) rose by +1.08%, and small-scale bonds (under 500 million) increased by +0.89%, again with medium-scale bonds leading the gains [4] Price and Valuation Metrics - The average price of convertible bonds is 125.67 yuan, up from 124.53 yuan the previous week, with a percentile value of 95.3% [5][6] - The average conversion price is 98.75 yuan, an increase from 96.58 yuan, with a percentile value of 86.8% [6] - The average conversion premium is 26.9%, down from 28.2% the previous week, with a percentile value of 53.5% [6] Sector Performance - The top 30 performing convertible bonds are primarily from the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors (4 bonds each) and the bottom 30 are mainly from the automotive (5 bonds), light manufacturing (4 bonds), and chemical sectors (4 bonds) [4][7] Future Outlook - The fundamental and macroeconomic policies are crucial factors influencing the convertible bond market, with a focus on areas that can boost domestic demand and counteract excessive competition [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Jiangsu Urban Football League ("Su Chao") has gained significant popularity, reflecting the growing demand for entertainment and consumption in the region, which is indicative of economic development stages [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact - "Su Chao" serves as a new consumption scene, potentially boosting domestic demand and providing fresh ideas for economic stimulation [9]. - The league's success is closely tied to the cultural and tourism industry, showcasing the effective management and creative strategies of the Jiangsu provincial government [8][15]. - The event has led to increased local tourism, with over 73 million visitors reported on match days, highlighting its economic benefits for cities like Nantong [11]. Group 2: Community Engagement - The league fosters a strong sense of local identity among fans, as each city has its own unique history and culture, contributing to sustained enthusiasm for the matches [8][12]. - The organization of matches has been well-received, with high-quality engagement from both players and fans, indicating a positive community atmosphere [7][8]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The sustainability of "Su Chao" is expected to be high, with potential for further development in local sports infrastructure and youth training programs [12][18]. - Other cities in China can learn from Jiangsu's approach, but must adapt strategies to their unique circumstances to replicate success [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed an upward trend last week, reaching a new high on Friday driven by the financial sector with moderate trading volume. However, short-term adjustment risks are accumulating, and the possibility of repeated oscillations is increasing as the index enters the volume accumulation area of last October [3]. - Looking ahead to next week, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff impacts. Therefore, favorable policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations are needed in the second half of the year, which is the main logic for the current stock index rebound [4][5]. - The profit expectations of non-financial sectors are approaching the bottom, investors' patience has improved but confidence still needs to be restored. Specific policies to counter involution and boost domestic demand are expected, and the market is just waiting for a catalytic factor [5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Contents Market Performance - Last week, the performance of the four stock index futures varieties was differentiated. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fluctuated and consolidated, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 oscillated and rebounded. The basis of all four stock index futures varieties turned into a futures discount mode, and the inter - period spread of futures strengthened [3]. - In the A-share market last week, the steel and glass industries remained stable, and the banking industry showed an obvious breakthrough path. The steel industry had a 3 - day increase of 4.78%, and the banking industry had a 3 - day increase of 2.36% [3]. Market Outlook - The market's mid - term capital direction remains unchanged, but the rotation speed of sectors may increase next week [3]. - Although the index has broken through the short - term pressure line, it is difficult to break through the volume accumulation area of last October without a large amount of funds, and the possibility of repeated oscillations is increasing [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3450 points has significantly boosted market sentiment and expanded the profit-making effect among investors [1][2] - Institutions believe that while short-term sentiment indicators are relatively high, the market may enter a consolidation phase after a round of valuation expansion. However, in the medium to long term, unexpected policy measures or breakthroughs in the technology sector could catalyze a strong upward trend [1][2] - The current market environment resembles that of late 2014, with investors accumulating profit-making effects in various sectors, which could lead to a sustained increase in risk appetite and a recovery in new product launches [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest focusing on structural opportunities within the semi-annual report disclosures, as the A-share market typically revolves around these reports during July and August [4] - Investment recommendations include three main lines: industries with strong industrial trends such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, sectors driven by performance and valuation matching like communications and electronics, and thematic sectors related to "anti-involution" such as new energy [4] - The peak of earnings forecasts for listed companies is expected in mid-July, with both positive and pessimistic earnings expectations being key focus areas for the next investment phase [4]

Group 1 - Citic Securities maintains three strategies during the interim report season, focusing on industries with strong trends such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, sectors driven by performance and valuation like communication and electronics, and themes related to military and new energy [1] - Dongwu Securities highlights that financial stocks have been a driving force behind the index's rise, with a shift expected towards growth sectors, particularly in the technology space, as AI and computing sectors remain undervalued [2] - Huatai Securities notes that the robotics industry is entering a critical phase, with a shift in focus from initial capabilities to practical applications, emphasizing the importance of companies with actual orders and significant changes in their business layouts [3] Group 2 - Xiangcai Securities predicts a slight upward trend in the A-share market for July, driven by overlapping trends from new policies and investment strategies, with a focus on technology, green initiatives, consumption, and infrastructure as key areas of interest [4]

Core Insights - The current market environment shows similarities to late 2014, with investors in Hong Kong stocks, small-cap stocks, and industry sectors experiencing some profit effects, leading to a mild recovery in new product launches [1] - Non-financial sector profit expectations are nearing a bottom, with improved investor patience, although confidence still needs to be restored [1] - Policies aimed at reducing competition and boosting domestic demand are clear objectives, with specific policy implementations and adjustments expected soon, potentially showcased in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Investment Strategies - The report maintains three strategic focuses for the mid-year reporting season: 1. Industries with strong industrial trend characteristics, focusing on AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] 2. Industries driven by performance and valuation matching, focusing on North American computing chains in telecommunications and electronics, as well as non-ferrous metals and gaming [1] 3. Industries with thematic and speculative characteristics, particularly related to military industry and new energy linked to reducing competition [1] - Overall, the rotation among non-ferrous metals, AI hardware, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industries is expected to be the main theme during the mid-year reporting season [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Dr. Lu Ting, Chief Economist at Nomura China, on the current state of China's macroeconomy, emphasizing the importance of supply-driven demand and the role of new consumption scenarios in boosting domestic demand [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking a 1.3 percentage point acceleration from the previous month, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly contributing to this growth [5]. - The sales of household appliances surged by over 50% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations, indicating a strong retail performance [5]. - The government aims to "greatly boost consumption and improve investment efficiency" as a top priority in its work report, suggesting a strategic focus on expanding domestic demand [4]. Group 2: Structural Economic Changes - The article highlights the ongoing structural transformation of China's economy, shifting from real estate to advanced manufacturing, with recent positive developments attributed to decades of accumulated benefits rather than short-term changes [7]. - The rapid development of China's manufacturing sector, particularly in industrial robotics, is noted, with domestic production rates exceeding 60% and total installations in 2024 surpassing those of other countries combined [7]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Dr. Lu emphasizes the need for a stable real estate market and effective debt resolution in the property sector to support consumer wealth, which is crucial for sustained consumption growth [5]. - Enhancing social security and welfare systems, along with addressing income distribution issues, is seen as vital for making consumption a key pillar of stable economic growth [5]. - The article suggests that creating new consumption scenarios, like the "Su Chao" football league, can stimulate demand and enhance local economic activity [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the resurgence of consumerism, particularly among Generation Z, as seen in the popularity of brands like LABUBU, indicating a shift from previous discussions of "consumption downgrade" to a renewed focus on consumption as a primary economic driver [1][2] - The article discusses the historical context of consumption, noting that in pre-modern times, the concept of consumption was limited, with individuals primarily using items until they were exhausted, reflecting a lack of individual consumer identity [2][4] - It highlights the evolution of consumerism, where the relationship between consumers and producers has become more detached, leading to exploitation and a focus on marketing and branding over practical utility [3][8] Group 2 - The article outlines the transformative impact of various revolutions—personal, material, urban, and national—on the emergence of modern consumerism, which has reshaped societal structures and individual identities [4][5] - It points out that while consumerism has led to societal tensions and conflicts, it has also contributed to the development of a resilient society by fostering individual expression and collective action [7][12] - The article argues that the shift from an investment-oriented economy to a consumption-oriented one represents not just an economic change but a broader social revolution, necessitating a supportive environment for diverse expressions of individuality and interests [12]