Core Insights - In the first half of the year, Hubei Province added 580.8 billion yuan in new loans, ranking second in the central region, with an increase of 106.2 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - By the end of June, the balance of deposits in Hubei Province exceeded 10 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, making it the 10th province in the country to surpass this threshold [1]

Economic Overview - The preliminary GDP for the first half of 2025 is 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 6.8% growth in June [5] Investment and Consumption - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24,865.4 billion yuan in the first half, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [8] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 4.8% increase in June [11] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half, with a slight increase of 0.1% in June [15] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a 3.6% decline in June [16] Financial Indicators - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [19] - New RMB loans added up to 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half [20] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan at the end of June, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [21] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of goods reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [25]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by 41,993 billion yuan, up 9,008 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 37,051 billion yuan[1] - New loans from financial institutions reached 22,400 billion yuan in June, an increase of 1,100 billion yuan year-on-year, also surpassing the market forecast of 18,447 billion yuan[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in June was 1.40 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the market consensus of approximately 1.07 trillion yuan[3] Group 2: Loan Demand Analysis - New short-term loans for enterprises hit a record high of 11,600 billion yuan in June, increasing by 4,900 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans were relatively modest at 10,100 billion yuan, up only 400 billion yuan[4] - The total corporate financing demand indicator for June was 18,800 billion yuan, which, despite a year-on-year increase of 1,588 billion yuan, remains below the 24,900 billion yuan level of the same period in 2022-2023[5] - For households, new short-term and medium-long-term loans were 2,621 billion yuan and 3,353 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of only 150 billion yuan and 151 billion yuan, indicating weak consumer demand[6] Group 3: Deposit and Liquidity Trends - New deposits in June 2025 rose to 32,100 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,500 billion yuan, although still below levels seen in 2021-2023[7] - The proportion of demand deposits in new deposits reached 83% for households and 95% for enterprises, indicating a shift towards liquidity[8] - M1 growth rebounded to 4.6% in June, driven by increases in demand deposits from both enterprises and households, each contributing nearly 1 trillion yuan[9] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The internal demand logic remains unchanged, with government departments continuing to leverage, but the transmission of demand to enterprises and households is not smooth[10] - The strong performance of credit in June may lead to weaker data in July, as historically, July figures have been significantly below expectations[11] - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in domestic policies and liquidity conditions, which could impact market stability[12]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report on the industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts for June 2025 include 2.1 trillion yuan in new loans, 3.8 trillion yuan in social financing, M2 reaching 329.2 trillion yuan with a YoY growth of 7.9%, M1 (new caliber) YoY growth of 2.5%, and a social financing growth rate of 8.8% [2] - New loans in June may be close to the same period last year. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. The growth of individual short - term loans is expected to be 150 billion yuan, and individual medium - and long - term loans 350 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans are expected to increase by 500 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans by 950 billion yuan, and bill financing by 100 billion yuan [3] - The growth rate of the new - caliber M1 is expected to rebound in June, while the M2 growth rate remains stable. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 2.5%, and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month [3] - Social financing in June may increase year - on - year. The social financing increment in June is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from government bonds and net corporate bond financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, new loans (social financing caliber) are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing to expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of about 8.3% [3] - Interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the third quarter. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Forecast of New Loans - Based on past credit release rules and industry observations, it is predicted that new loans in June 2025 will be 2.1 trillion yuan. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. Due to weak credit demand, new loans in July may be low [2][3] Forecast of M1 and M2 Growth Rates - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber. It is expected that the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June will be 2.5% and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month, indicating a slow improvement in economic activity [3] Forecast of Social Financing - The social financing increment in June 2025 is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase from 3.3 trillion yuan in June 2024. The increase mainly comes from government bonds and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, social financing is expected to increase year - on - year, and the growth rate may rise first and then fall [3] Bond Market Outlook - In the third quarter, interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%, as well as urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. The perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and opportunities in insurance sub - debt are worth attention. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the growth rate of social financing increased significantly, with new loans of 28 billion yuan and social financing of 1.16 trillion yuan. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, and the M1 growth rate was stable. The new loans in April were less than the same period last year, but the total for the first four months was close to the previous year. Looking ahead to 2025, new loans are expected to increase year - on - year, government bond net financing will expand significantly, and social financing will increase significantly year - on - year. The social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an expected year - end growth rate of around 8.4%. [1][2] - It is recommended to adopt a full - defense strategy in the bond market. The negative economic cycle of the past two years has ended, and the economy is stabilizing internally. With the significant reduction of US tariffs on China, the bond market needs to guard against the possibility of economic data exceeding expectations. After the significant tariff reduction, the economic outlook has improved significantly, and the central bank may need to push up the long - term bond yields moderately. In 2025, pure bond investment should be cautious, and attention should be paid to stock and convertible bond opportunities. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content New Loans - In April 2025, new loans were 28 billion yuan, less than the same period last year, but the total for the first four months was close to the previous year. The second - quarter April and May are usually small months for credit issuance, and June is a large month. The credit data in the first half of 2025 was affected by the replacement of implicit debts. The low stock mortgage interest rate and the stable stock market alleviated the pressure of early mortgage repayment, and the demand for mortgage loans improved. In April, individual loans decreased by 52.16 billion yuan, including a decrease of 40.19 billion yuan in short - term individual loans and 12.31 billion yuan in medium - and long - term individual loans. Corporate short - term loans decreased by 48 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 25 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 83.41 billion yuan. With the significant reduction of US tariffs on China and the low year - on - year base, new loans are likely to increase year - on - year in the next few months. [1][2][7] M1 and M2 - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and non - bank payment institution customer reserves on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of April 2025, the new - caliber M1 balance reached 109.1 trillion yuan, and the old - caliber M1 was 66.3 trillion yuan. In recent years, the year - on - year growth rates of the new and old M1 calibers have been similar, but the new - caliber M1 growth rate is more stable. In April, the new - caliber M1 growth rate was 1.5%, close to the previous month; the old - caliber M1 growth rate was - 0.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Since Q4 2024, the growth rates of both new and old M1 calibers have rebounded significantly, reflecting the gradual increase in economic activity. The M2 growth rate in April was 8.0%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month, which was related to the large decline in M2 in April 2024 when manual interest compensation was standardized and the large increase in M2 derivation due to the significant year - on - year increase in social financing in April this year. [2][4] Social Financing - In April 2025, the social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan. The increase mainly came from government bond net financing and undiscounted items. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy in April was 8.84 billion yuan, 24.65 billion yuan less than the same period last year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 27.94 billion yuan; corporate bond net financing increased by 23.4 billion yuan; government bond net financing was 97.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.07 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the social financing growth rate was 8.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the end of the previous month and 0.7 percentage points from the beginning of the year. [1][2][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the UK - US trade agreement, market risk sentiment has emerged, and the continuously low TC price indicates that copper prices are still likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended to mainly use buy - hedging on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On May 14, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,930 yuan/ton and closed at 78,940 yuan/ton, up 1.09% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,650 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - On the previous day, both procurement and sales sentiment declined. Near the delivery date, downstream procurement was affected by high monthly spreads, with a procurement index of 3.07. Sellers with registerable warehouse receipt goods were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the overall sales sentiment index dropped to 3.14 [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The US is "close to reaching" a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India. The US does not seek dollar depreciation in tariff negotiations. Trump reached a $12 - trillion economic commitment in Qatar, and the US and Qatar signed over $243.5 - billion economic and military cooperation agreements. In China, the social financing increment from January to April was 16.34 trillion yuan, new loans were 10.06 trillion yuan, and M2 in April increased by 8% year - on - year [3] - **Mine End**: From 2020 - 2024, Western Mining's net profit compound growth rate was 41%. Its mine production capacity expanded, and mineral copper production increased significantly. In 2024, the deterioration of smelting processing fees and year - end asset impairment affected the company's profitability [3] - **Smelting and Import**: In 2024, the total electrolytic copper output of 19 large domestic copper smelters was 10.5558 million tons, an increase of 0.642 million tons or 6.5% year - on - year. These 19 enterprises accounted for 77.37% of China's total electrolytic copper output, a 1.04% increase from the previous year [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Near the end of the month, downstream consumption growth was limited. Due to some processing enterprises' export - rushing actions, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made low - price, just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,125 tons to 185,575 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 20,912 tons to 50,069 tons. On May 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.231 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, mainly use buy - hedging on dips [5] - Options: short put@ 74000 [5] Data Table - The table shows copper price and basis data including spot (premium/discount), inventory, warehouse receipt, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai - London ratio data for different time points [20][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report Group 2: Report's Core View - The report predicts that in April 2025, new loans will reach 800 billion yuan, and social financing will be 1.5 trillion yuan. By the end of April, M2 will reach 323.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; M1 (new caliber) will have a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; and the social financing growth rate will be 8.8% [2]. - Throughout the year, new loans are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing will expand significantly year - on - year, social financing will increase year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may first rise and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of around 8.3% [3]. - The bond market may fluctuate in Q2. High - tariff shocks are expected to cause the economic growth rate to decline in the second quarter, but the decline may be better than the bond market's expectations. The bond market should focus on the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations. It is recommended to conduct credit risk - taking to obtain coupons, and there may be no trend - based opportunities in the bond market in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - In April, new loans may increase slightly year - on - year. It is estimated that new loans in April will be 800 billion yuan, with individual loans decreasing by 10 billion yuan, corporate credit increasing by 70 billion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans increasing by 20 billion yuan [3]. - Due to the weak new loans in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2024, new loans in the next few quarters may increase year - on - year [3]. M1 and M2 - The new - caliber M1 growth rate is expected to rebound in April, and the M2 growth rate will rise slightly. The new - caliber M1 growth rate in April is expected to be 2.1%, with a month - on - month increase; the old - caliber M1 growth rate is - 0.2%, also with a month - on - month increase. The M2 growth rate in April is expected to be 7.4%, showing a slight increase [3]. Social Financing - The social financing growth rate may rebound significantly in April. It is predicted that the social financing increment in April will be 1.5 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase, mainly from credit, government bonds, and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of April is expected to be 8.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month [3]. Bond Market - The bond market may fluctuate in Q2. If an agreement is reached between China and the US to reduce tariffs to the beginning - of - the - year level in the next six months, the high point of the 10 - year treasury bond yield this year may still reach 1.9%, and the economy in 2025 is still expected to stabilize. Since tariff negotiations are difficult and may not succeed in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate in the second quarter [3].

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.39%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.95%, up 0.02 percentage points[1] - The monthly ECI supply index increased by 0.11 percentage points from February, while the demand index rose by 0.06 percentage points[5] - The ECI investment index is at 50.02%, up 0.08 percentage points from February, indicating a slight recovery in investment activity[5] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.13%, down 0.42 percentage points from last week, suggesting a potential decrease in new loans for February[8] - New loans for February are expected to be between 1.0 to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 250 to 450 billion yuan[11] - Government bond net financing in February reached 1.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1.0 trillion yuan, contributing to a projected social financing growth of around 2.6 trillion yuan[11] Industrial and Consumer Activity - The industrial production index shows a slight decline, with key industries experiencing mixed operational rates[13] - Passenger car retail sales in February reached 1.397 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.0%[20] - Infrastructure work volume has improved compared to last year, with significant growth in excavator sales, which rose by 99.4% year-on-year in February[5] Export and Inflation Insights - Port cargo throughput has shown a recovery, with a recorded increase of 2.15% in cargo volume from February 24 to March 2[30] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.83 yuan/kg, down 0.38 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating a continued decline in food prices[36] - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $70.36 per barrel, down $3.15 from the previous week, reflecting a decrease in international commodity prices[36]