交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | . | 4万吨 ， | 环比有所增加3 | 70% . | 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为7 | | 8万吨 . | 环比增长11 ， | 43% . . | | 需求有所抬升 | . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为23 . | 3万吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no obvious contradictions, and the futures price is expected to rise easily and fall hard in the short term [1] - Gold is expected to experience a short - term further correction and show an oscillating and bearish trend [2] - The fundamentals of rebar are marginally weakening, but the futures price still has strong support before the parade [4] - The fundamentals of iron ore have limited bearish drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [5] - The bond market still has upward momentum in the short term, and a strategy of short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [5] - For live pigs, short - term interval trading for the LH2509 contract or long - term layout of long positions for the LH2511 contract is recommended [6] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] - Gold and silver may show a divergent trend, with silver in an upward trend [7] - The spot price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [7] - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term [8] - The L2601 contract of LLDPE is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9] - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10] Group 3: Summaries According to Short - Comments Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 74.03%, an increase of 0.34%; daily coke output is 65.10, an increase of 0.29; coke inventory is 69.73, a decrease of 3.89; total coking coal inventory is 987.92, a decrease of 4.81; coking coal available days are 11.4 days, a decrease of 0.11 days [1] - Supply is reduced due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" plan; the Ganqimaodu Port's daily average customs clearance is 1166 vehicles, remaining at a high level; downstream procurement has slowed down, but coal mine inventories continue to decline [1] Gold - The Trump administration will clarify the "misinformation" about gold tariffs; the short - term callback is expected, and it is oscillating and bearish in the long - term due to factors like the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points; steel mill profitability rate is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points; daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.62 tons [4] - Steel mill production restrictions are expected due to the approaching parade; typhoon impact has weakened, demand has recovered, production has increased, and inventory has accumulated [4] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13712.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.37 tons; daily average port clearance volume is 321.85 tons, an increase of 19.14 tons; the number of ships at ports is 105, an increase of 15 [5] - Overseas mine shipments have decreased, but port arrivals have increased; steel enterprise profitability is at a high level, and short - term production reduction is less likely [5] Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - A number of major foreign - funded projects are progressing steadily, and policies to attract foreign investment are being strengthened; exports are resilient, and counter - cyclical adjustment may be intensified in the second half of the year; liquidity is relatively loose, supporting the bond market [5] Live Pigs - As of August 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.22 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.29%, an increase of 0.11%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 31.43 yuan per head, a decrease of 12.74 yuan per head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 186.91 yuan per head, a decrease of 15.56 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 413.81 yuan per head, a decrease of 9.05 yuan per head [6] - Farmers' price - holding sentiment has emerged after price drops, but terminal demand is weak, and there is no continuous upward momentum [6] Palm Oil - From August 1 to 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the previous month [6] - As the main contract is approaching replacement, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has widened slightly, and consumption is mainly for rigid demand [6] Silver - On August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September is 88.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11.6% [7] - The US dollar index has a short - term rebound demand, but the downward trend remains, which is beneficial to precious metals; silver is in an upward trend [7] Soybean Meal - Last week's average daily trading volume of soybean meal is 29.664 tons, with spot trading volume of 10.684 tons; this week's average daily trading volume is 51.198 tons, with spot trading volume of 7.092 tons [7] - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of lower near - term prices and higher long - term prices, and the spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2380 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan per ton; China's methanol port sample inventory is 92.55 tons, a weekly increase of 11.71 tons; sample production enterprise inventory is 29.37 tons, a weekly decrease of 3.08 tons; sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 24.08 tons, a weekly increase of 1.01 tons; methanol capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a weekly decrease of 3.55%; downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, a weekly increase of 0.85% [8] - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has accumulated significantly, and the market is expected to oscillate [8] Plastic (LLDPE) - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7321 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton; LLDPE weekly output is 30.04 tons, a weekly increase of 9.76%; production enterprise inventory is 18.06 tons, a weekly increase of 26.74%; oil - based daily production profit is - 178 yuan per ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.5% week - on - week [9] - LLDPE supply is expected to remain at a high level, downstream factory restocking is phased, and the market price is weak [9] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1347 yuan per ton, oscillating weakly recently; weekly soda ash output is 74.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%; soda ash manufacturer total inventory is 186.51 tons, a weekly increase of 3.86%; float glass operating rate is 75.19%, a weekly increase of 0.19%; the national average price of float glass is 1199 yuan per ton, a day - on - day decrease of 1 yuan per ton; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6184.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.95% [10] - Float glass production is stable, inventory has increased, and the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating [10]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-08 一钢厂控产，不锈钢现货成交转好 镍品种 市场分析 2025-08-07日沪镍主力合约2509开于121440元/吨，收于121850元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.97%，当日成交量为 96611手，持仓量为81103手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘高开冲高受阻快速回落后小幅振荡，日盘继续回落，午后走高创近期新高，收阳线。成交量较 上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。菲律宾方面，矿山多处装船出货阶段。下游国内铁厂多降 负荷生产操作，原料采购维持谨慎。印尼方面，印尼地区天气稍有好转，镍矿开采效率提升，印尼镍矿行情走弱。 8月（一期）内贸基准价上涨0.2-0.3美元；内贸升水方面，8月（一期）升水以+24为主流，环比持平，区间+23-25。 现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约50元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调，盘面镍价先跌 又涨，精炼镍现货成交偏淡，精炼镍现货升贴水多数持稳。其中金川镍升水变化0元/吨至2250元/吨，进口镍升水 变化0元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为20687（-102.0）吨，LME镍 ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-08-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13670 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19705 | -5 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -25219 | 2288 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | 74 | 52 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 272133 | -9339 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 15633 | 2151 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 8329 | -135 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 88 | 0 | | | | 15191 | 13 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20620 | -20 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) 59 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 | | | ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-07 早熟果返青，销区库存果走货转好 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7915元/吨，较前一日变动+56元/吨，幅度+0.71%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-315，较前一日变动-56；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1085，较前一日变动-56。 近期市场资讯，苹果现货市场整体成交氛围一般，库存货源出库略显缓慢，多议价成交。西部产区货源剩余不多， 现货商发自存货源为主。山东产区客商数量不多，拿货仍显谨慎，多挑拣压价拿货，整体出库速度不快，走货仍 以低价片红货源为主。早熟方面来看，纸袋秦阳进入交易后期，嘎啦零星上市，咸阳、渭南产区嘎啦返青现象严 重。鲁丽有序交易，客商采购积极性尚可。销区市场需求不佳，应季水果冲击依旧明显。陕西洛川产区目前库内 70#起步统货4.0-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.0-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80# 以上统货2.8-3 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 4 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 1万吨 | 环比有所增加3 | 85% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为7万吨 | 环比减少1 | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 | 40% | ， | ， | . | . | . | | | | | | 硅库存为22 | 9万吨 | 处于高位 | 硅片亏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected that industrial silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 8250 - 8650 [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the supply-side production scheduling continues to increase. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable. It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 48885 - 51775 [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% decrease from the previous week, and the demand remains sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: The silicon inventory is 229,000 tons, at a high level; the organic silicon inventory is 78,100 tons, also at a high level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 46,000 tons, at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The sample oxygen - permeable 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 2354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On August 5th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 610 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.40% decrease from the previous week; the main port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polycrystalline silicon output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. The scheduled production in August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the battery cell output was 57.26GW, a 1.90% increase from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 3.86GW, a 27.57% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 59.15GW, a 3.30% increase from the previous month. In July, the component output was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. It is expected that the component output in August will be 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month. The European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On August 5th, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [12]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [12]. 2. Fundamentals/Position Data The report provides a large amount of data on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, including production, inventory, cost, and price trends over different time periods, as well as the supply and demand balance sheets of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon [18][20][41][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol is becoming more polarized, and it is expected that the regional characteristics of its price trends will become more prominent. The port market is likely to see inventory accumulation this week, with weakening demand, leading to a predicted weak adjustment. The inland market has healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but is affected by the weak port market, and is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment. Overall, the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 running between 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of methanol 2509 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bullish, the disk is neutral, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2509 ranging from 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; some CTO factories in the northwest have external procurement needs [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the prices of some regions such as Jiangsu and Fujian have decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia have increased. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis has changed, and the import spread has also changed [8][9][11]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 650,300 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 40,500 tons to 366,300 tons [5]. - **Production profit data**: The profits of coal - based and coke - oven - gas - based methanol production have changed, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remains unchanged [19]. - **Downstream product data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remain unchanged. The production profits and loads of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO devices have all changed [28][32][35][39][44]. - **Warehouse receipt and forecast data**: The number of methanol warehouse receipts has decreased by 13.10%, and the number of effective forecasts has increased to 202 [51]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic device maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises in Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are in various states of maintenance, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, and some devices are in the process of restarting [54]. - **Foreign device operation**: Some methanol production devices in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operation statuses. Devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries are generally operating normally, while some devices in the United States and New Zealand have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin device operation**: Olefin devices in Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and low - load operation [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The L2509 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention on the support around 7,200 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing as previously shut - down plants restarted, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the medium - to - long term. Demand is weak, with the peak season for shed films postponed and limited support from packaging film orders. International oil prices are expected to be strong this week, but cost support is not enough to reverse the short - term weak trend of polyethylene futures [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,279 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. The trading volume was 264,758 lots, up 44,222 lots, and the open interest was 300,262 lots, down 12,855 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 22,004 lots, up 316 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,284.35 yuan/ton, down 32.61 yuan, and in East China was 7,367.62 yuan/ton, down 17.86 yuan. The basis was 5.35 yuan, up 5.39 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.88 US dollars per barrel, down 0.66 US dollars, and the CFR mid - price in Japan was 603.88 US dollars per ton, down 7.12 US dollars. The mid - price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars per ton, unchanged, and in Northeast Asia was 821 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.09%, up 2.12 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 48.7%, up 0.63 percentage points, that of pipes was 28.67%, down 0.16 percentage points, and that of agricultural film was 12.63%, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 12.42%, up 0.15 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 13.36%, up 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 7.28%, down 0.91 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, China's polyethylene production was 635,500 tons, up 3.31% from the previous period. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3%. As of July 30th, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 432,800 tons, down 13.94%, and as of August 2nd, the social inventory was 575,700 tons, up 2.49% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash and glass futures are both in an oscillating phase. For soda ash, although there was policy support last week, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. For glass, the price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support [6][30]. - It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. The short - term may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation, start - up adjustment, and inventory changes [6]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the domestic soda ash market first rose and then declined. Policy and device maintenance supported the price increase at the beginning of the week, but weak downstream demand and increased supply later led to a weakening of the futures [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The futures were in high - level oscillation, affected by the contradiction between policy expectations and fundamentals. The expected operating range of SA2509 was 1250 - 1450, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The domestic soda ash market was still stable with a slight upward trend. The expected operating range of SA2509 is 1200 - 1350, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly), etc. The multi - empty flow is - 39.7, indicating the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is 7.2 + 2, remaining basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 90.6, with a high risk of market reversal [11][15][22]. Glass Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Glass is in an oscillating trend. The short - term may have narrow - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy trends [30]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend. The price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support and low downstream acceptance of high prices [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. The futures first fell and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 1200 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see [33]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend, but the upward momentum weakened. The expected operating range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and profit margin of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存. The multi - empty flow is - 53.5, indicating the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 68.7 * + +, with a large inflow of funds; the multi - empty divergence is 96.4, with a high risk of market reversal [36][42][51].