Group 1 - The U.S. real estate market follows an 18-year cyclical pattern, with a predicted downturn starting in 2026 that will have widespread negative impacts on the economy [1][3] - Historical data shows significant real estate crashes in the U.S. in 1972, 1990, and 2008, each occurring 18 years apart, indicating a strong correlation between real estate downturns and economic recessions [3][4] - The 2008 financial crisis exemplified how the collapse of the real estate market can lead to a broader financial crisis, as seen with the failures of Lehman Brothers and Fannie Mae [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming downturn in the U.S. real estate market necessitates proactive strategies from China to mitigate potential impacts, including implementing policies to stabilize its own real estate market [6] - Chinese companies with overseas investments should conduct risk assessments to prepare for the underlying risks associated with the current U.S. real estate "prosperity" [6] - The potential recession in the U.S. could adversely affect China's export industries, highlighting the need for strategic development in relevant market sectors to counteract the effects of the U.S. real estate cycle [6]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]

以下文章来源于东四十条资本 ，作者投中嘉川 当下的"危机"中，或许也孕育着新的投资机会。 作者丨投中嘉川 来源丨 投中网 近日，耶鲁大学捐赠基金PE资产抛售事件在全球资本市场掀起暗涌。据报道，耶鲁大学计划出售约60亿美元的私募股权投资组合，占其414亿美元捐赠基 金规模的15%，这是该校历史上首次在私募股权二级市场（S市场）进行大规模抛售。与此同时，哈佛大学因拒绝特朗普政府提出的在教学、招生和研究 等方面干涉其学术与言论自由的改革要求，面临22.6亿美元联邦经费冻结，且政府威胁取消其免税资格，市场预期哈佛可能也不得不开始出售流动性资产 甚至举债。 从"耶鲁模式"到范式危机 私募股权早已成为机构投资人配置的核心资产之一。自耶鲁大学开创大比例配置另类资产的"耶鲁模式"并取得丰厚回报后，多家美国高校调整其捐赠基金 配置比例。美国国家学院和大学商务办公室联合会（以下简称NACABO）数据显示， 大学捐赠基金私募股权与风险投资配置比例在过去20年攀升至接近 30%，与股票配置比例几乎相当。 东四十条资本 . 聚焦股权投资行业人物、事件、数据、研究、政策解读，提供专业视角和深度洞见 | 创投圈有趣的灵魂 将投中网设为"星 ...