Economic Outlook - The risk of a significant recession in the U.S. by 2026 is increasing due to rising uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, despite the current economic stability [2][5][6] - Trump's claim that the U.S. economy is "detoxifying" is criticized as a political excuse rather than an economic term, with emphasis on using classic indicators like unemployment rates and consumer spending to assess economic health [2][5][6] Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market is highly concentrated, with seven major stocks accounting for 34% of the total market value, indicating a bubble risk similar to the early 2000s internet bubble [2][7] - Current market enthusiasm driven by AI advancements is deemed unsustainable, with potential for significant corrections in the future [2][7] Trade Policies and Global Impact - Trump's high tariffs on steel and aluminum have prompted retaliatory measures from the EU and Canada, increasing global production and distribution costs [3][10] - The idea of forcing supply chains to return to the U.S. is viewed as impractical due to the complexity and high costs involved, which could ultimately harm American consumers [3][14] AI Competition - The competition in AI is more intense than previously acknowledged, with breakthroughs like DeepSeek posing significant challenges to U.S. companies due to their low-cost advantages [1][15] - The shift towards more efficient production models is anticipated as countries adapt to the competitive landscape shaped by advancements in AI [15][16] Historical Context - The current trade policies echo historical mistakes, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which led to a global trade war and economic depression in the 1930s, highlighting a lack of historical awareness in current U.S. policy [17]