Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by the European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, is the desire for exchange rate stability to avoid additional negative impacts on the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) poses challenges to regulatory tolerance, with significant fluctuations impacting local businesses and the financial market [1][4][5]. Group 1: NTD Volatility - The NTD experienced a significant increase of 2.5% against the USD, marking the largest single-day gain since early May, bringing its year-to-date appreciation to 12%, the strongest among Asian currencies [1][4]. - The previous trading day saw the NTD plummet by 2.5%, the largest single-day drop since 2001, indicating a pattern of extreme volatility [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the fluctuations reflect a delicate balance for regulators between maintaining exchange rate stability and responding to the weakening USD [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on Local Businesses - The recent volatility coincides with local companies preparing to release their semi-annual reports, which could directly affect the financial performance of firms, including life insurance companies and exporters [4][5]. - The surge in the NTD was driven by significant dollar sales from local exporters and foreign capital inflows, prompting public banks to intervene by purchasing USD to stabilize liquidity [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - Regulatory authorities are increasingly concerned about the NTD's appreciation, which poses risks to Taiwan's export-dependent economy and pressures life insurance companies holding USD-denominated assets [6][7]. - The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) has implemented measures allowing life insurance companies to increase foreign exchange reserves to offset potential losses from NTD appreciation [7][8]. - The central bank has also intensified warnings regarding currency purchases by local trading companies and has taken steps to limit foreign capital speculation on the NTD, demonstrating a commitment to stabilizing the exchange rate [8].

Group 1 - The central bank of Indonesia has intervened in the spot market, offshore NDF market, and domestic NDF market to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized that stable exchange rate fluctuations reflecting fundamentals are crucial for market stability, and the policy is not aimed at manipulating the foreign exchange market [1] Group 1 - The importance of stable exchange rate movements in reflecting economic fundamentals for market stability [1] - The Bank of Japan's policy approach is not focused on foreign exchange market manipulation [1]

Group 1 - The 28th ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Milan, discussing global and regional macroeconomic conditions and financial cooperation [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold a total of HKD 116.614 billion over three days to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, ensuring the effectiveness of the linked exchange rate system [1] - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all foreign-produced films entering the U.S. market as part of a broader trade strategy aimed at negotiating new trade agreements with multiple countries [1] Group 2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that the Trump administration's tariff policies have significantly harmed California, but the state remains committed to maintaining long-term trade relations with China [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2% [2] - Eurozone inflation levels remained stable, and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed improvement, indicating a gradual recovery in the European economy [2] Group 3 - Japan's official unemployment rate for March was reported at 2.5%, slightly above expectations [3] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.24% to 41,218.83 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.64% to 5,650.38 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.74% to 17,844.24 points [4] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures rose by 3.09% to USD 3,343.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.29% to USD 32.68 per ounce [5] Group 6 - U.S. crude oil main contract fell by 1.82% to USD 57.23 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 1.55% to USD 60.34 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.86 basis points to 3.8302%, the 5-year yield increased by 2.1 basis points to 3.9376%, the 10-year yield rose by 3.5 basis points to 4.3433%, and the 30-year yield increased by 4.67 basis points to 4.8336% [6] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.25% to 99.79, while the euro rose by 0.14% against the dollar to 1.1316 [6]

短期内降低政策利率和扩大公共投资是重点。 中国经济在一季度延续了去年四季度以来的较好势头。不过，考虑到美国关税政策冲击、国内财政支撑 力度边际减弱等因素，市场对二季度经济承压的担忧增加。 关税冲击对中国经济影响有多大？宏观政策如何应对？中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）4月21日发布的 《2025年第一季度宏观政策报告》提示，美国总统特朗普关税政策对中国经济的冲击会在二季度之后逐 步显现，并从五个方面提出应对建议。其中，扩大内需仍是首位。 CF40研究院执行院长郭凯、北京大学国家发展研究院院长黄益平在报告发布会上表示，作为扩大内需 的重要部分，促进国内消费是当前最优的政策选择。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研 究所副所长张斌强调，促消费政策落地应该分清轻重缓急，短期内降低政策利率和扩大公共投资是重 点。 应对关税冲击的五大方向 考虑到财政一季度靠前发力后可能面临季节性退坡，上述报告建议，国内宏观政策有必要提前做充分准 备，可以从五个方面着手应对：一是加快扩大内需，二是稳住股市和汇市，三是敞开谈判大门，但反对 美方"极限施压"和"漫天要价"，四是对受损企业给予必要救济，五是为企业从出口向内需转型创造更 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary task for economic work in 2023, with a focus on both short-term and long-term strategies to boost consumption and improve living standards [1] - Short-term measures include maintaining counter-cyclical fiscal policies, increasing spending, and adjusting the expenditure structure to focus more on improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [3][4] - Long-term strategies involve continuous reforms in key areas such as the household registration system, income distribution, and social security to provide sustainable growth benefits [4][5] Group 2 - Economic forecasts suggest a stable macroeconomic performance in 2025, with a smoother quarterly fluctuation compared to 2024, although concerns about insufficient consumer demand and export pressures remain [2][3] - The need for fiscal policy to play a crucial role in stabilizing growth is highlighted, with suggestions to shift investment focus from physical assets to human capital to create a long-term mechanism for expanding consumption [3][4] - Reforms in income distribution and social security are critical for increasing household consumption, with proposals to enhance the distribution of corporate profits to residents and improve social safety nets for vulnerable groups [5][6]

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 缩量震荡 每日看盘 昨晚社融数据揭晓，部分数据超预期，但从结构上来说依然存在一些问题。简单说就是M1超 预期，M2符合预期，社融相对超预期，但社融的增幅是政府债，居民中长期贷款依然不给 力，实体企业信贷需求还在往下走。 关于汇率，央行也会继续采取综合措施，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，坚决对市场顺周 期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调风险，保证汇率稳 定。美元离岸人民币目前回到7 . 3 4多一点，还算比较稳定也有所回落。其实主要的原因还是美 元指数过于强硬，人民币兑美元是被动贬值的，单看人民币兑一篮子货币相对可能还是升值 的。 而国债方面，3 0债的主力合约今天再次跳空高开，最终收涨0 . 6 1%，盘中离前高也不过只差 0 . 2%的距离。 后面还是得关注量能的情况，虽然今天的十字星出现在昨天放量大涨后是可以接受的良性调 整，但量能稍微少了一点，你不能排除昨天是一种情绪式宣泄的反弹而非反转的可能。那么后 面无非就是技术上还需要一次回踩确认，最后一跌或者最后一波下跌，然后叠加政策面的利好 和不确定事件的落地再确定筑底的逐渐完成？ (本文 ...