Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core View - Palm oil is undergoing a high - level adjustment due to concerns about rising domestic and foreign inventories. Production growth and weak demand are pressuring prices, but India's pre - Diwali inventory replenishment will support prices. The resistance level is seen at 9,500. Rapeseed oil is affected by abundant domestic supply and policies. The Sino - US talks have no clear results, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is pending. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. The spot basis of the three major domestic oils has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period, and far - month basis can be appropriately bought. Oils are oscillating strongly, with each variety being hyped in rotation recently, so risk control should be noted [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China market, the offer price of rapeseed oil traders and the basis price of soybean oil are given, and the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in East China is P09 + 60 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Palm oil is under pressure due to inventory concerns, with a resistance level at 9,500. For rapeseed oil, focus on far - month ship purchases. It is advisable to buy far - month basis as the basis of domestic three major oils has limited downward adjustment space. Pay attention to risk control as oils are oscillating strongly with variety rotation [7] 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From July 1 - 25, production increased by 5.52% month - on - month, with FFB yield up 6.08% and OER down 0.1%. Exports decreased by 8.53% month - on - month to 684,308 tons, and exports to China dropped from 145,000 tons to 58,000 tons [8] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In May, due to a surge in exports, inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons, and exports reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% month - on - month increase [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple charts are presented, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and exchange rates of US dollars against the ringgit and the RMB [10][18][22][25][29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the supply and demand dynamics for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate, with a general tightening in global vegetable oil supply and demand in the 2025/26 period, leading to potential price support [1] Group 2 - For palm oil, Malaysia's production is projected to be close to last year's levels at 19-19.5 million tons, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation expected until October [1] - Indonesia is anticipated to increase production by 2 million tons to 55 million tons, supported by the B40 policy and export demand, maintaining a tight balance in inventory for the second half of the year [1] - International palm oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations in Q3, with a potential strengthening in Q4 [1] Group 3 - In the soybean oil sector, South American soybean production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season, alleviating supply pressure after July [1] - The U.S. soybean supply and demand are projected to tighten for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, with weather during critical growth periods posing risks [1] - Domestic soybean oil imports are expected to exceed 10 million tons in Q3, with high operating rates in oil mills leading to strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] Group 4 - For rapeseed oil, a slight increase in global rapeseed production is expected for the 2025/26 season, while export demand is anticipated to decline significantly [1] - The EU is projected to increase production, but prior drought conditions may lead to lower-than-expected yields, while Australian rapeseed production is expected to decrease significantly [1] - Domestic rapeseed imports may decline post-June due to anti-dumping concerns, leading to potential inventory depletion and tighter supply [1] Group 5 - The short-term outlook suggests that with weak crude oil prices and no immediate weather-related speculation for U.S. soybeans, domestic soybean and palm oil inventories are likely to accumulate, making it difficult for oil prices to rise [1] - However, the global vegetable oil supply and demand are expected to tighten in the 2025/26 period, providing strong support for oil prices, with the potential for a seasonal increase in Q4 [1] - Strategy recommendations include monitoring support levels for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts, with cautious buying near these support levels [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the intensification of international conflicts and changes in supply - demand factors, the prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) are oscillating strongly. The macro - level international conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the prices of vegetable oils. On the supply - demand side, changes in the US biodiesel policy, the unexpected inventory build - up in the MPOB report, and the increase in Indian imports have all contributed to the price increase of oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8436.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 296 yuan or 3.64%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7960.00 yuan/ton, up 174.00 yuan or 2.23%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9505.00 yuan/ton, up 195.00 yuan or 2.09% [1] - Spot prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8700.00 yuan/ton, up 220.00 yuan or 2.59%. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8200.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.99%. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan or 2.10% [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 84.7 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.06 million tons or 9.66% [2] - As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 40.96 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons or 11.41% [2] - As of June 16, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 590.592 million tons, a decrease of 5.088 million tons from June 9 [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Macro - level**: The Israeli air - strike on Iranian targets last Thursday led to a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. International oil prices soared by more than 9%, driving up the prices of vegetable oils. If the conflict spreads to key energy infrastructure or Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will have a major impact on the global energy supply chain [3] - **Supply - demand level**: - **Soybean oil**: The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending of 5.61 billion gallons of biodiesel in 2026, higher than the 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 and exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil prices [3] - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report showed less - than - expected inventory build - up. India's reduction of import tariffs on crude palm oil improved import profits, increased purchases, and boosted international market prices. India's edible oil inventory is at a multi - year low, and the relatively low price of international palm oil has prompted Indian refineries to increase purchases [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: The strong operation of ICE rapeseed has increased the cost of imported rapeseed in China. With the decline in crushing profits, domestic oil mills are adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Rapeseed arrivals are expected to decrease in the coming months, and the current low inventory of rapeseed has led to low overall operation rates of oil mills, resulting in a firm spot price of rapeseed oil [3]

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil: Initial Pricing of Bearish Factors, Focus on Future Production; Soybean Oil: Sino-US Relations Disturbance, Focus on New US Soybean Crop Suspense" and was released on June 8, 2025 [1][2] 2. Previous Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - The bearish impact of Malaysia's unexpected production increase from April to May was gradually digested by the market. In the short term, there were no obvious contradictions, and it mainly fluctuated following the oil and fat sector affected by crude oil, China-Canada, and Sino-US relations. The palm oil 09 contract rose 0.62% last week [2] Soybean Oil - The driving force in the soybean market was not obvious, and supply issues were downplayed. However, the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents in the second half of the week brought bullish sentiment to the US soybean market, leading to a strong rebound in soybean oil and soybean meal. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.31% last week [2] 3. This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - Malaysia's production recovery from April to May will bring forward a 2 million - ton inventory level. Indonesia's inventory is expected to accumulate to over 3 million tons in April, so the inventory in the second quarter in Indonesia and Malaysia may return to the normal level of 5.5 million tons. There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents, so the origin's quotation may loosen in the third quarter [3] - Although it is judged that there is still un - released pressure in the fundamentals, there is strong support during the decline. Due to macro - allocation, oil hedging, and early layout for the second half of the year, investors' long - allocation of palm oil means that the current production increase in Malaysia from April to May cannot push the palm oil price down [3] - After the market has fully priced in the previous production increase, further bearish factors need to be seen, such as less - than - expected purchases by China and India in July or Malaysia's production in June - July challenging historical highs. Malaysia's inventory at the end of May is expected to reach over 2 million tons [3] - Indonesia's production in March increased by 16% month - on - month. If the production continues to recover significantly from April to May, it will help release the seasonal pressure. Recently, Indonesia's refining profit has increased, and export demand has recovered, but the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference has not improved significantly, and the supply is gradually widening [3] - The export taxes of crude palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia are both reduced in June, so the importing regions' import sentiment will improve in June. India's palm oil purchases in May - June reached over 1.5 million tons, and the consumption expectation in the production increase season is guaranteed. China's palm oil purchases for the July shipment are relatively small. If the monthly average purchase cannot reach 350,000 tons, the origin will face inventory pressure again in the third quarter [3] - The market's pricing expectation for palm oil still comes from the production recovery situation. The bullish factors such as the digestion of Malaysia's previous production increase, the improvement of export in June, and the possible decline in production in June - July attract long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels [3] Soybean Oil - There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. 45Z and SRE mainly increase fluctuations, and RVO is needed to determine its value. It is considered that the probability of the final RVO figure being above 5.25 billion gallons is small, and the demand boost compared with 2024 will be less than 500,000 tons [5] - In terms of international oil and fat supply, attention should be paid to when the high soybean - palm oil price difference will reflect the export pressure of international soybean oil. The upward performance of US soybean oil may be restricted by the actual situation. If the operating rate remains at the low level in March, the inventory will become neutral by July [5] - The discount of Brazilian soybeans has widened compared with that of US soybeans, indicating less selling pressure from farmers, which will support the soybean sector. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, as well as the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5] 4. Overall View - For palm oil, the previous bearish factors of Malaysia's production increase have been gradually digested, exports from the origin are expected to improve in June, and the risk of production decline in June - July attracts long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels. Attention should be paid to the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference and the inventory pressure implied by the origin's export sentiment [6] - For soybean oil, there is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, and the impact of Sino - US relations on the domestic soybean market. Also, observe the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [6] 5. Market Data Futures Price and Volume - Palm oil main - continuous contract: opened at 8,100 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,250 yuan/ton, a low of 8,064 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,110 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The trading volume was 2,478,112 lots, a decrease of 604,662 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 419,221 lots, an increase of 33,611 lots [8] - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: opened at 7,612 yuan/ton, reached a high of 7,748 yuan/ton, a low of 7,612 yuan/ton, and closed at 7,738 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The trading volume was 3,082,774 lots, a decrease of 400,894 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 572,787 lots, a decrease of 42,275 lots [8] Spread and Basis - The vegetable - soybean oil 09 spread was 1,402 yuan/ton, down 18.01% from last week; the soybean - palm oil 09 spread was - 372 yuan/ton, up 11.85% [8] - The palm oil (South China) basis to the 09 contract was 380 yuan/ton; the soybean oil (Jiangsu) basis declined [14] Inventory - related - Malaysia's palm oil production in May is expected to reach a historical high in the same period, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise. Indonesia's inventory in the second quarter is expected to rise rapidly [10][13] - The ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,320,914 tons, an increase of 17.9% compared with the same period last month [13]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysian palm oil futures reversed early losses and recorded a weekly gain, despite concerns over rising production and inventory levels [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Malaysian palm oil futures for August closed at 3,917 MYR (926.88 USD), up 14 MYR or 0.36%, marking a weekly increase of 1.01% [1] - The market's initial decline was attributed to worries about rising production and inventory, but a strong performance in exports and following the trend of soybean oil prices supported the market [1][2] - The support level for Malaysian palm oil futures is seen at 3,800 MYR, with resistance at 4,000 MYR [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 3% to 1.74 million tons in May, while inventory is projected to rise by 7.74% to 2.01 million tons [1][2] - The increase in palm oil yield and extraction rate in Malaysia for May is reported at 1.9% and 0.3%, respectively, contributing to a 3.53% rise in production [2] Group 3: Export Data - Malaysian palm oil exports for May are reported to have increased significantly, with various sources indicating increases ranging from 13.21% to 29.6% compared to the previous month [2] - The export volume for May is estimated at approximately 1.23 million tons according to AmSpec, while SGS and ITS report figures of 1.07 million tons and 1.32 million tons, respectively [2] Group 4: Regional Insights - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 2.04 million tons in March, with exports rising to 2.88 million tons, up from 2.56 million tons year-on-year [3] - India's edible oil imports surged by 37% in May, with palm oil imports increasing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest level in six months [4] Group 5: Price Dynamics - Domestic palm oil port inventory rose to 363,000 tons, indicating a potential gradual recovery in stock levels [5] - The price spread between palm oil and soybean oil has narrowed, reflecting market dynamics influenced by supply and demand factors [6] Group 6: Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a neutral to slightly bearish outlook for palm oil prices, citing increased production and inventory pressures, while also noting potential support from lower import duties in India [7] - The expectation for June includes a wide fluctuation in palm oil prices, with a potential slight downward shift in price levels [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and fat industry is cautiously bearish [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the superposition of negative factors, the prices of oils and fats are more likely to fall than to rise. The supply of oils and fats is gradually recovering, while the demand remains weak, and the low - running crude oil prices also put significant pressure on the prices of oils and fats [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 7,914.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 60 yuan and a decline of - 0.75%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,786.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 26.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.34%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,335.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 119.00 yuan and an increase of + 1.29% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 120.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.39%. The spot basis was P09 + 616.00, with a环比 change of - 60.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,120.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%. The spot basis was Y09 + 334.00, with a环比 change of - 16.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,490.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 120.00 yuan and an increase of + 1.28%. The spot basis was OI09 + 155.00, with a环比 change of + 1.00 yuan [1] Recent Market News - The July contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures closed down 65 ringgit, a decline of 1.71%, at 3,727 ringgit/ton (about 880.05 US dollars/ton). The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (May shipment) was 1,028 US dollars/ton, down 52 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (July shipment) was 1,008 US dollars/ton, down 47 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) was 1,010 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (July shipment) was 990 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) was 590 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 580 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (June shipment) was 453 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (June shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (June shipment) was 431 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (June shipment) was 198 cents/bu, unchanged from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (June shipment) was 175 cents/bu, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (June shipment) was 135 cents/bu, down 10 cents/bu from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Short - term international crude oil prices are volatile, and dry weather in the US and Europe may bring bullish speculation. Short - term oil and fat prices are expected to fluctuate upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Content Spot Price - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9230, 9030, and 8980 respectively, down 100 from April 28 [1]. - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged from April 28 at 8220, 8370, and 8270 respectively [1]. - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9370, 9400, and 9530 respectively, down 30 from April 28 [1]. Futures Data - **Soybean - Palm Oil Main Contract Spread**: On April 29, 2025, it was - 340, up 20 from April 28 [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Main Contract Spread**: On April 29, 2025, it was 1522, up 3 from April 28 [1]. - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipts**: There were no changes on April 29, 2025, remaining at 0 [1]. - **Soybean Oil Warehouse Receipts**: On April 29, 2025, there were 4005, an increase of 970 from April 28 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Warehouse Receipts**: There were no changes on April 29, 2025, remaining at 1357 [1]. High - frequency Data in April - **Production**: From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased 9.11% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area up 7.69% and oil extraction rate up 0.27% [2]. - **Exports**: According to AmSpec, exports from April 1 - 25, 2025 reached 92.39 tons, up 14.75% month - on - month; ITS reported 95.10 tons, up 13.8%; SGS reported 70.32 tons, up 3.6% [2]. Key Information - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Progress**: As of April 19, 2025, the harvest progress of Brazil's 24/25 soybean was 92.5%, compared to 88.3% the previous week and 83.2% the same period last year [2]. - **US Weather and Sowing**: In the next two weeks, precipitation in US soybean - producing areas will be high, which may delay new - crop sowing. As of April 20, 2025, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%, higher than the historical average of 5% [2]. - **Trade Relations**: The evolution of China - Canada trade relations is still uncertain, and Canadian rapeseed is a key variable [2]. - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic available inventory is limited, and subsequent rapeseed imports may tighten, and imported rapeseed oil cannot fill the gap caused by the tight rapeseed supply [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust. Policy changes are frequent, and risks should be controlled. The reference price ranges for the main contracts are 7500 - 7800 for soybean oil, 7900 - 8200 for palm oil, and 9100 - 9400 for rapeseed oil [40] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Production and Inventory**: High - frequency data shows a 4% increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 15 days of April. With more rainfall in the next 1 - 2 weeks in southern Malaysia, April production is expected to reach the 5 - year average. In March, production was 1.39 million tons, up 16.76% month - on - month, and the end - of - March inventory was 1.56 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month, still at a relatively low level [6][9] - **Export**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased 7.05% month - on - month. India's import profit has improved, and it may increase palm oil purchases, which eases the short - term inventory build - up pressure [11][15] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 348,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from the previous week. Spot prices weakened, with a weekly decline of 170 - 270 yuan, and the basis also decreased slightly [19][23] Soybean Oil - **International Market**: CBOT soybeans and Brazilian soybean premiums show an inverse relationship. Brazilian farmers' active sales and the new soybean harvest in Argentina suppress the increase in premiums, limiting the performance of domestic soybean - related products [28] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil port inventory was about 687,000 tons, down 54,000 tons from the previous week. The factory operating rate recovered to nearly 40% but was still low. This week's factory soybean oil sales volume was 278,700 tons, an increase of 62,500 tons week - on - week [31][33] Rapeseed Oil - **Inventory and Sales**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 645,000 tons, and coastal inventory was 127,000 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. Terminal demand was weak, and inventory increased slightly. This week's average transaction price was 9,349 yuan, down 49 yuan from last week [38]