Core Viewpoint - Malaysian palm oil futures reversed early losses and recorded a weekly gain, despite concerns over rising production and inventory levels [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Malaysian palm oil futures for August closed at 3,917 MYR (926.88 USD), up 14 MYR or 0.36%, marking a weekly increase of 1.01% [1] - The market's initial decline was attributed to worries about rising production and inventory, but a strong performance in exports and following the trend of soybean oil prices supported the market [1][2] - The support level for Malaysian palm oil futures is seen at 3,800 MYR, with resistance at 4,000 MYR [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 3% to 1.74 million tons in May, while inventory is projected to rise by 7.74% to 2.01 million tons [1][2] - The increase in palm oil yield and extraction rate in Malaysia for May is reported at 1.9% and 0.3%, respectively, contributing to a 3.53% rise in production [2] Group 3: Export Data - Malaysian palm oil exports for May are reported to have increased significantly, with various sources indicating increases ranging from 13.21% to 29.6% compared to the previous month [2] - The export volume for May is estimated at approximately 1.23 million tons according to AmSpec, while SGS and ITS report figures of 1.07 million tons and 1.32 million tons, respectively [2] Group 4: Regional Insights - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 2.04 million tons in March, with exports rising to 2.88 million tons, up from 2.56 million tons year-on-year [3] - India's edible oil imports surged by 37% in May, with palm oil imports increasing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest level in six months [4] Group 5: Price Dynamics - Domestic palm oil port inventory rose to 363,000 tons, indicating a potential gradual recovery in stock levels [5] - The price spread between palm oil and soybean oil has narrowed, reflecting market dynamics influenced by supply and demand factors [6] Group 6: Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a neutral to slightly bearish outlook for palm oil prices, citing increased production and inventory pressures, while also noting potential support from lower import duties in India [7] - The expectation for June includes a wide fluctuation in palm oil prices, with a potential slight downward shift in price levels [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and fat industry is cautiously bearish [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the superposition of negative factors, the prices of oils and fats are more likely to fall than to rise. The supply of oils and fats is gradually recovering, while the demand remains weak, and the low - running crude oil prices also put significant pressure on the prices of oils and fats [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 7,914.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 60 yuan and a decline of - 0.75%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,786.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 26.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.34%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,335.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 119.00 yuan and an increase of + 1.29% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 120.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.39%. The spot basis was P09 + 616.00, with a环比 change of - 60.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,120.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%. The spot basis was Y09 + 334.00, with a环比 change of - 16.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,490.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 120.00 yuan and an increase of + 1.28%. The spot basis was OI09 + 155.00, with a环比 change of + 1.00 yuan [1] Recent Market News - The July contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures closed down 65 ringgit, a decline of 1.71%, at 3,727 ringgit/ton (about 880.05 US dollars/ton). The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (May shipment) was 1,028 US dollars/ton, down 52 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (July shipment) was 1,008 US dollars/ton, down 47 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) was 1,010 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (July shipment) was 990 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) was 590 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 580 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (June shipment) was 453 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (June shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (June shipment) was 431 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (June shipment) was 198 cents/bu, unchanged from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (June shipment) was 175 cents/bu, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (June shipment) was 135 cents/bu, down 10 cents/bu from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Short - term international crude oil prices are volatile, and dry weather in the US and Europe may bring bullish speculation. Short - term oil and fat prices are expected to fluctuate upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Content Spot Price - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9230, 9030, and 8980 respectively, down 100 from April 28 [1]. - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged from April 28 at 8220, 8370, and 8270 respectively [1]. - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9370, 9400, and 9530 respectively, down 30 from April 28 [1]. Futures Data - **Soybean - Palm Oil Main Contract Spread**: On April 29, 2025, it was - 340, up 20 from April 28 [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Main Contract Spread**: On April 29, 2025, it was 1522, up 3 from April 28 [1]. - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipts**: There were no changes on April 29, 2025, remaining at 0 [1]. - **Soybean Oil Warehouse Receipts**: On April 29, 2025, there were 4005, an increase of 970 from April 28 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Warehouse Receipts**: There were no changes on April 29, 2025, remaining at 1357 [1]. High - frequency Data in April - **Production**: From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased 9.11% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area up 7.69% and oil extraction rate up 0.27% [2]. - **Exports**: According to AmSpec, exports from April 1 - 25, 2025 reached 92.39 tons, up 14.75% month - on - month; ITS reported 95.10 tons, up 13.8%; SGS reported 70.32 tons, up 3.6% [2]. Key Information - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Progress**: As of April 19, 2025, the harvest progress of Brazil's 24/25 soybean was 92.5%, compared to 88.3% the previous week and 83.2% the same period last year [2]. - **US Weather and Sowing**: In the next two weeks, precipitation in US soybean - producing areas will be high, which may delay new - crop sowing. As of April 20, 2025, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%, higher than the historical average of 5% [2]. - **Trade Relations**: The evolution of China - Canada trade relations is still uncertain, and Canadian rapeseed is a key variable [2]. - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic available inventory is limited, and subsequent rapeseed imports may tighten, and imported rapeseed oil cannot fill the gap caused by the tight rapeseed supply [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust. Policy changes are frequent, and risks should be controlled. The reference price ranges for the main contracts are 7500 - 7800 for soybean oil, 7900 - 8200 for palm oil, and 9100 - 9400 for rapeseed oil [40] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Production and Inventory**: High - frequency data shows a 4% increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 15 days of April. With more rainfall in the next 1 - 2 weeks in southern Malaysia, April production is expected to reach the 5 - year average. In March, production was 1.39 million tons, up 16.76% month - on - month, and the end - of - March inventory was 1.56 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month, still at a relatively low level [6][9] - **Export**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased 7.05% month - on - month. India's import profit has improved, and it may increase palm oil purchases, which eases the short - term inventory build - up pressure [11][15] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 348,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from the previous week. Spot prices weakened, with a weekly decline of 170 - 270 yuan, and the basis also decreased slightly [19][23] Soybean Oil - **International Market**: CBOT soybeans and Brazilian soybean premiums show an inverse relationship. Brazilian farmers' active sales and the new soybean harvest in Argentina suppress the increase in premiums, limiting the performance of domestic soybean - related products [28] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil port inventory was about 687,000 tons, down 54,000 tons from the previous week. The factory operating rate recovered to nearly 40% but was still low. This week's factory soybean oil sales volume was 278,700 tons, an increase of 62,500 tons week - on - week [31][33] Rapeseed Oil - **Inventory and Sales**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 645,000 tons, and coastal inventory was 127,000 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. Terminal demand was weak, and inventory increased slightly. This week's average transaction price was 9,349 yuan, down 49 yuan from last week [38]