1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is cautiously bullish, and the rating for arbitrage is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - LME inventory has slightly increased, but the absolute value remains below 40,000 tons, leading to a rapid increase in overseas premiums. The domestic supply pressure persists, but the opening of the export window has reversed the short - allocation logic. The linkage between domestic and overseas zinc prices will strengthen, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $201.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan per ton, closed at 22,220 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 124,307 lots, and the position was 95,194 lots. The highest price was 22,335 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,210 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 38,600 tons, a change of 1,125 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - LME inventory has a slight rebound, but the absolute value is still low, causing the overseas premium to quickly break through $200 per ton. The domestic smelting profit has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains. The opening of the export window has changed the short - allocation logic, and the linkage between domestic and overseas prices will strengthen. There's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] Strategy - Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral [5]

Economic Resilience - The U.S. economy has demonstrated unexpected resilience, with the second quarter real GDP annualized growth rate revised to 3.8%, surpassing the previous expectation of 3.3% [1][4] - Nominal GDP grew approximately 6.0% during the same period, indicating dual expansion in economic activity both in price and real terms [1] Consumer Spending and Imports - The upward revision in GDP is primarily attributed to strong consumer spending and a statistical effect from declining imports, which contributed positively to GDP [4] - Continued active household consumption serves as a solid support for economic growth [4][5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The latest PCE data for August shows overall inflation at 2.7% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.9%, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [5] - The market anticipates a modest interest rate cut of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve in October [5] Federal Reserve's Approach - The Federal Reserve's room for maneuver has reopened, but high housing and service prices suggest a cautious and gradual approach to monetary easing rather than an aggressive shift [6] Global Business Implications - The U.S. economy's "time-sensitive execution" advantage is emerging, where companies that can quickly bring R&D results to market will achieve exceptional returns [6] - Global companies face both challenges and opportunities, as tariffs and supply chain restructuring will compel multinational corporations to accelerate their U.S. or nearshore operations [6] Capital Market Predictions - If the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, capital-intensive sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and medical technology are expected to benefit directly [6] - Investment will favor projects that can quickly generate cash flow and demonstrate scalability, indicating a selective approach to capital allocation [6] Strategic Outlook - The latest GDP report highlights the structural resilience of the U.S. economy, providing new strategic references for global capital and businesses [6] - Companies that can leverage the rapid response mechanisms of the U.S. market, optimize supply chain flexibility, and utilize capital markets for scaling are likely to convert short-term resilience into long-term advantages [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "Double Festival" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025 is expected to create an 11-day holiday for some families, highlighting the impact of the newly introduced policies aimed at expanding service consumption [2] Group 1: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism anticipates a significant surge in tourism and hospitality sectors during the holiday, with predictions of record-breaking domestic travel numbers and revenue [2] - The recently released policies have shown immediate effects, with four main benefits observed during the holiday period [3] Group 2: Benefits of the Policies - **Time Benefit**: The inclusion of "optimizing student holidays" in national consumption expansion policies has led to extended holiday periods, facilitating long-distance and in-depth travel [3] - **Scene Benefit**: Many cultural and tourism venues have extended their operating hours, transforming nighttime economy into a primary focus with various nighttime activities [3] - **Financial Benefit**: Initiatives such as the "Hundred Cities and Hundred Districts" cultural and tourism consumption plan and financial incentives from major banks have been launched to stimulate consumption [3] - **Inbound Benefit**: The expansion of visa-free access aims to boost inbound tourism [4] Group 3: Future Considerations - To sustain the momentum of consumer resilience observed during the holiday, further efforts are needed to convert short-term excitement into long-term growth [4] - Recommendations include institutionalizing flexible holiday arrangements, enhancing service standards in county-level tourism, and promoting high-end consumption through financial incentives [5] - The holiday serves as a reflection of policy implementation speed and effectiveness, as well as a measure of the gap between supply and demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian consumer spending demonstrates strong resilience, providing support for the economic outlook despite challenges in the retail sector [1] Retail Sales Performance - In July, Canadian retail sales decreased by 0.8% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment, but preliminary estimates for August indicate a recovery with a 1.0% month-on-month increase [1] - The decline in July was primarily due to a widespread drop in non-automotive goods sales, while the automotive sector showed relatively positive performance, supporting overall retail [1] Economic Context - Despite ongoing trade uncertainties and pressures from a weakening labor market, consumer spending has not entered a prolonged downturn, indicating strong resilience [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a closing price of $3686.23 per ounce on September 16, following a high of $3703.09 and a low of $3674.73 [1] - The U.S. retail sales for August recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.2% and the previous value of 0.5%, indicating a steady consumer spending trend despite economic uncertainties [2] - High-income households have shown resilience in spending, contributing disproportionately to overall consumption, supported by a bull market and rising home prices [2] Group 2 - The U.S. housing market outlook is optimistic due to declining mortgage rates and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, despite ongoing construction cost pressures [3] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to 6.35%, the lowest since mid-October of the previous year, which is expected to boost housing demand [3] - Industrial production in the U.S. showed minimal growth in August, with manufacturing increasing by only 0.2%, indicating challenges in the manufacturing sector due to trade policy uncertainties [3] Group 3 - International gold maintained a volatile trading pattern, with short-term price movements indicating a potential upward trend, as the market stabilized above $3682 [4] - The short-term indicators for gold prices suggest a bullish sentiment, with significant support levels identified for potential price rebounds [4] - The overall daily moving averages for gold prices are showing a structured upward divergence, reinforcing the bullish trend [4]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the US economy in August was weak, with rising unemployment and inflation, but consumer spending is expected to be a bright spot, with retail sales projected to grow by 0.2% month-on-month [1] - High-income households are playing a crucial role in supporting consumer spending despite economic weaknesses, as increased household wealth from a bull market and rising home prices allows for continued spending [1] - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, with a significant downward revision of nearly 1 million jobs in employment estimates for 2023-2024 [1] Group 2 - Retail sales have shown resilient growth over the past year, with consumer spending in August increasing by 0.4% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer resilience [2] - There is a divergence between weak job growth and strong consumer spending, which may not be sustainable in the long term; the future economic direction will depend on whether consumer spending or the labor market adjusts first [2] - Executives from major companies express optimism about consumer resilience, suggesting that as long as the right products or services are available, consumers will continue to spend actively [3] Group 3 - Future months will require attention to tariff policies and their impact on consumer behavior, especially with the holiday shopping season approaching, as rising prices due to tariffs could challenge consumer spending [3] - The upcoming retail sales data is critical ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, with a strong or weak retail sales report likely to influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy [3]

News Summary Group 1: Company Developments - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine has received approval from the mining regulator Sernageomin to resume operations at Andes Norte and Diamante, while Recursos Norte and Andesita remain closed [1] - The copper rod production rate increased to 71.80% during the week of August 15-21, up 1.2 percentage points week-on-week, but down 8.75 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Copper raw material inventory decreased by 2.31% week-on-week to 33,800 tons due to maintenance-related production cuts at some copper rod enterprises [1] - Finished product inventory fell by 5.44% to 66,100 tons following a temporary improvement in downstream orders after a drop in copper prices [1] - Domestic copper inventory saw a slight increase but remains at low levels, while LME copper inventory has accumulated [2][3] - The market liquidity has improved due to the return of imported copper and domestic supply [3] - Downstream consumption has not shown a turning point, but the demand for replenishment has increased as copper prices decline [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong outlook due to anticipated demand increases in the upcoming peak season, despite current pressures on spot premiums [3]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has reduced its holdings in technology and financial stocks like Apple and Bank of America while increasing investments in resilient consumer companies with strong cash flows, such as Domino's Pizza and Constellation Brands [1] Group 1: Investment Actions - Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter 13F filing reveals a strategic shift towards consumer brands with stable demand and anti-cyclical properties [1] - The firm has increased its stakes in companies like Domino's Pizza, Constellation Brands, Nucor Steel, and Pool [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The current economic environment favors consumer brands that demonstrate resilience, making them attractive as safe-haven assets [1] - In the pizza chain sector, Domino's Pizza has established a differentiated competitive advantage through product innovation, a comprehensive service system, and supply chain barriers [1] Group 3: Consumer Resilience - Brand recognition and consumer loyalty support Domino's performance during the consumption recovery phase [1] - A mature delivery network and global presence enhance the brand's ability to withstand market fluctuations [1] Group 4: Capital Market Sentiment - The investment trends reflect a deep recognition in the capital market of consumer resilience [1] - Companies that combine anti-cyclical capabilities with global strategies are becoming reliable choices in uncertain environments [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone industrial output fell by 1.3% in June, worse than the expected decline of 1.0%, primarily due to significant drops in Germany and weak consumer goods production [1] - The revision of May's output growth from 1.7% to 1.1% indicates a weaker underlying trend than previously anticipated [1] - The second quarter GDP growth of 0.1% aligns with initial estimates, while employment growth of 0.1% matches expectations but is lower than the previous quarter's 0.2% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year economic growth of 1.4% in the second quarter was driven by a surge in demand before the implementation of US tariffs, but this growth is expected to slow down until a potential recovery in 2026 [2] - The monthly industrial output decline was mainly attributed to Germany (-2.3%) and Ireland (-11.3%), with the latter's data being affected by tax maneuvers of multinational pharmaceutical companies [2] - All sectors, except for energy production, experienced contraction last month, with non-durable consumer goods (-4.7%) and capital goods (-2.2%) leading the decline [2]

展望下半年，毕马威中国认为，货币政策将保持流动性充裕，并把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，延续上 半年多目标轮动的特征。因货币政策的传导需要时间，已经实施的货币政策的效果还会进一步显现。短 期货币政策或进入观察期，不急于进一步加码宽松，对防风险、防空转的关注度可能再次提升。但年内 降准降息的可能性和必要性仍存，以促进社会综合融资成本进一步下行。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 展望下半年，报告认为，伴随着稳就业和促消费政策的持续发力，服务消费和新型消费的不断拓展，消 费仍将保持一定韧性，继续发挥经济增长的主引擎作用。 货币政策方面，报告提到，上半年央行相机抉择，政策目标优先级动态调整。一季度因前期政策效果仍 在持续显现，国内经济开局良好，逆周期调节压力不大，货币政策更加侧重防风险、防空转，关注人民 币汇率波动、长债利率变化及银行净息差压力。二季度外部冲击逐渐显现，以5月7日一揽子金融政策的 推出为标志，货币政策优先目标转向稳增长和促进物价合理回升。 毕马威中国8月11日发布2025年三季度《中国经济观察》报告（以下简称"报告"）。报告提到，二季度 中国经济增速显现韧性。一方面，企业"抢出口"活动仍然活跃，带动国内生产保持 ...