Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price disorderly competition rather than driving up prices, as the fundamental factor determining prices remains supply and demand, with current domestic effective demand still insufficient [1] - The "anti-involution" policy has been reinforced throughout the year, with various measures such as legal revisions and policy implementations to combat low-price competition, including the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the draft Price Law [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of -3.6% in July, but the month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% in June to -0.2%, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices due to policy effects [2] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains weak overall, but the core CPI has rebounded for three consecutive months, benefiting from reduced price wars in the automotive and home appliance sectors, as well as seasonal increases in service consumption [2] - The improvement in PPI is primarily seen in upstream raw materials and industrial products, which have a low direct correlation with consumer spending, indicating that the transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI remains ineffective [3] - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is to correct rather than stimulate, focusing on market-oriented and legal methods to shift competition from price wars to quality, service, and innovation, promoting a healthier market structure [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July, the CPI turned from flat to rising month - on - month, mainly due to higher service prices during the summer travel season, rising international oil and gold prices, and increased demand driven by replacement policies. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and its year - on - year growth stopped falling. Overall, with policy promotion and external factors, prices improved marginally in July. However, the price improvement in the upstream of the industrial chain was significantly better than that in the mid - and downstream. Mid - and downstream enterprises' price increases were restricted by insufficient effective demand. Anti - involution policies cannot boost prices overnight, and "stabilizing prices, reducing production capacity, and increasing demand" need to be coordinated. In the short term, with the continuous implementation of replacement and anti - involution policies, domestic prices are expected to recover steadily [3][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Service and Industrial Consumer Goods Prices Rise, CPI Month - on - Month Exceeds Seasonal Improvement - The CPI was flat year - on - year, rising 0.4% month - on - month after a 0.1% decline last month. Its month - on - month growth was better than the seasonal average [11]. - The month - on - month increase in CPI beyond the seasonal level was mainly driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices. During the summer travel season, service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, contributing about 0.26 pct to the CPI increase. International oil price hikes and replacement policies led to a 0.5% month - on - month increase in industrial consumer goods prices, contributing about 0.17 pct to the CPI increase [11]. - The carry - over effect turned negative, and the negative impact on the CPI year - on - year reading from the carry - over effect will expand from August to September [12]. - The year - on - year increase in the core CPI has been expanding for three consecutive months, with the highest month - on - month increase this year, mainly affected by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry and services [14]. - Among the eight major categories, service - related items such as transportation, communication, education, culture, entertainment, and other supplies and services had relatively large month - on - month increases, while food and tobacco decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [16]. - Food prices declined more than the seasonal average, dragging the CPI from rising to flat. In July, food prices fell 0.2% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened, mainly due to high base prices last year [17]. - Non - food prices rose more than the seasonal average, supported by the summer travel season, rising international oil prices, and policies to boost domestic demand, which was the main factor for the CPI to turn from decline to increase month - on - month [20]. 2. Raw Material and Energy Mining and Processing Prices Improve, PPI Month - on - Month Decline Narrows - The PPI was flat year - on - year, and its month - on - month decline narrowed. In July, the PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, with the same decline as last month, and 0.2% month - on - month, with a 0.2 pct narrower decline than last month [25]. - The negative impact of the carry - over effect on the PPI weakened. In August, the PPI carry - over factor rose to - 0.7%, and from September to December, it will be in the range of 0 to - 0.1%. With the continuous release of policies to expand domestic demand and combat involution, the year - on - year decline in PPI may narrow significantly [27]. - The month - on - month decline in production material prices narrowed, while the decline in consumer goods prices widened [28]. - By industry, industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal mining and processing had relatively large month - on - month increases, while industries such as coal, ferrous metal ore, and non - metallic mineral mining had relatively large month - on - month decreases. Overall, industrial product prices in most industries still declined, but some upstream industries showed obvious improvements [30]. - The decline in the PPI - CPI gap narrowed, but mid - and downstream industrial enterprises still faced significant pressure, mainly due to rising upstream prices, falling or stagnant downstream prices, and insufficient endogenous consumer demand [34]. 3. Conclusion: Positive Signals in July's Prices In July, the CPI turned from flat to rising month - on - month, and the PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. Overall, prices improved marginally in July. However, the price improvement in the upstream was better than that in the mid - and downstream. Anti - involution policies need to be coordinated with "stabilizing prices, reducing production capacity, and increasing demand." In the short term, domestic prices are expected to recover steadily with continuous policy implementation [35].

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the Japan-U.S. trade agreement represents a significant advancement that requires attention to the impact of trade policies on financial markets, foreign exchange markets, the Japanese economy, and prices [1] Group 1 - The Japan-U.S. trade agreement is viewed as a major progress by the Bank of Japan [1] - There is a need to monitor the effects of trade policies on various economic aspects, including financial markets and the economy [1] - The implications of the trade agreement on price levels in Japan are also highlighted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the necessity to monitor the impact of trade policies on the financial and foreign exchange markets, as well as on the Japanese economy and prices [1] Group 1 - The focus on trade policy's influence indicates a proactive approach to managing economic stability in Japan [1] - The statement suggests potential implications for monetary policy adjustments in response to trade dynamics [1] - The emphasis on financial and foreign exchange markets highlights the interconnectedness of global trade and domestic economic conditions [1]

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议指出，宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效 应。 如何看待当前经济运行状况？如何展望下半年经济形势？如何推动物价合理回升？下半年是否有必要推 出增量政策？要如何加力促消费？如何更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳？如何有效推进"反内卷"的工 作？带着这些问题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了上海财经大学校长刘元春。 下半年需重点关注投资 《21世纪》：上半年我国经济增长5.3%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。如何看待上半年经 济运行状况？ 刘元春：得益于超预期的出口和一揽子增量政策带来的消费反弹，中国经济上半年维持5.3%的增速， 显示出中国经济的韧劲和弹性。 在肯定上半年经济成绩的同时，也要看到一些结构性变化。当前，供给端增长要好于需求端，制造业韧 劲好于服务业，中央投资好于地方投资，大中型企业运行状况好于中小企业。更重要的是，6月份的一 些数据变化，包括投资增速回落、房地产市场出现波动等，暗示了下半年经济运行的新逻辑。 《21世纪》：如何展望下半年经济形势？出口、投 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the results of the Q2 2025 survey indicating that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][3][4] Group 1: Entrepreneur Insights - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, with values of 49.3% and 53.2% respectively, indicating a slight improvement in business sentiment [3] - 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [3] - The survey revealed that 32.5% of entrepreneurs expect to "increase profits or reduce losses," an increase of 6.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Group 2: Banker Insights - The banker macroeconomic heat index for Q2 was 33.2%, a decrease from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [4] - 50% of bankers rated the monetary policy as loose, with a monetary policy sentiment index of 74.6%, which is high [4] - The banker’s expectation for the macroeconomic heat index for Q3 is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to Q2 [4] Group 3: Resident Insights - In a survey of urban residents, 69.7% reported that their income remained stable in Q2, with a cautious outlook on employment [5] - 51.5% of residents perceive the employment situation as severe, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards job security [5] - 32.1% of residents plan to increase spending on tourism, surpassing education as the top choice for additional expenditures [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance is neutral but cautious, with over half of the respondents perceiving the current economic situation as stable [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Sentiment - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][9]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [5]. - The entrepreneur's macroeconomic heat index stands at 26.0%, which is a decrease from the previous quarter [5]. - The perception of product sales prices and raw material purchase prices remaining stable is reported by 71.2% and 75.5% of entrepreneurs, respectively [7]. Group 2: Banker Sentiment - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is recorded at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [11]. - The bankers' sentiment towards monetary policy is positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative [14]. - The bankers' macroeconomic heat expectation index for the third quarter is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the second quarter [11]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - The urban residents' survey indicates a cautious outlook on employment, with 51.5% perceiving the job market as severe [17]. - Approximately 69.7% of residents believe their income situation remains unchanged in the second quarter [16]. - The top spending intention among residents for the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [19]. Group 4: Economic Policy and Market Response - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary and financial policies to stabilize the economy, which has positively impacted market confidence [12]. - The overall demand for loans has decreased compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a cautious lending environment [15].

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold and copper prices are experiencing slight upward trends, while oil prices are also on the rise [1][11] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan may impact commodity prices positively, particularly for gold [11][6] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales are seeing an expanded decline, while used car sales are stabilizing; however, tourism consumption remains strong [2][3] - The average selling price of home appliances has shown mixed performance year-on-year, with some categories increasing and others decreasing [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - Export activities are slightly weakening, with a decrease in container shipping rates and a drop in scheduled container bookings from China to the US [5][4] - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces tariffs from 25% to 15%, which may influence trade dynamics in the region [6] Group 4: Production Insights - Steel prices continue to rise, supported by market sentiment and cost factors, with steel mill profitability improving [9][8] - The glass market is showing signs of improvement, although downstream demand remains weak, limiting price increases [10] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The average occupancy rate of hotels and the average daily rate per available room are both on the rise, indicating a robust tourism sector [3]

据悉，上述调查为全国性调查，覆盖一线至四线城市以及农村地区，样本量为5000个消费者，旨在动态 把握消费者消费信心、消费行为、消费意愿的变化趋势，了解消费者对消费环境、消费政策的意见建 议，为政府部门和企业的相关决策提供参考。 关于消费的具体情况，《报告》显示，当前超半数受访消费者认为物价"偏高"，比一季度略有上升，在 二季度CPI同比下降0.1%的背景下，一定程度上表现出消费者对商品降价的惯性期待，形成内卷式竞争 的市场背景。 同时，《报告》指出，连续四个季度消费者选择在家做饭次数增加了，外出就餐和点外卖的次数减少 了，这解释了餐饮行业一年来面临的压力。 消费者除去家庭日常开支以外，《报告》显示，消费者的余钱主要用于储蓄、子女培养教育、旅游、还 房贷和医疗。消费者储蓄意愿再创新高这一现象值得关注；消费者家庭子女培养教育负担较重对其他消 费支出形成制约；Z世代年轻人与"年轻的"银发族形成旅游需求的双轮驱动；减轻房贷压力有助于推动 消费；完善医疗保障对于提振消费意义重大。 南都讯 记者杨文君 发自北京 7月22日，由中国中小商业企业协会和立信数据研究院联合组织撰写的 《2025年二季度中国消费者消费意愿调查报告 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, increasing by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]