Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Chemical and Textile Industries - The soda ash operating rate remained stable at 84.9%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11][12]. - PTA operating rate increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The operating rate for polyester filament remained stable at 91%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [11]. Construction Industry - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21][22]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week [21]. Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass production remained stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [31]. - Asphalt operating rate increased by 1.5% week-on-week [31]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44][49]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.4% week-on-week [82][83].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production Tracking - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Sector Performance - The petrochemical and consumer sectors showed improvement, with soda ash operating rates stable at 84.9%, and a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11]. - PTA operating rates increased by 0.4% to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate improved by 1% to 73.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point to -5.7% [11]. Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week, but down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 0.7% [21]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week, while fruit, pork, and egg prices declined [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 0.4% week-on-week [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFI continued to rise. The container shipping bookings from China to the US have recovered to last year's level, and the US's restrictive measures may trigger a "rush to export" effect. Sino-US trade relations may see a turnaround. [2] - Real estate sales remained weak. New home sales were far below the seasonal level, while second-hand home sales were basically in line with the seasonality. [2] - Rebar and cement prices remained stable. In the short term, coking coal and coke performed well, supporting the steel price, but in the long term, it was limited by the weak supply-demand pattern. [2] - In terms of investment and production, commodity prices showed mixed trends. Rebar prices were flat, glass futures prices decreased, asphalt prices increased, and cement prices were basically unchanged. [2] - In industrial production, the operating rates were differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills, PTA operating rate, and automobile tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt operating rate and coking enterprise operating rate decreased, and the polyester filament operating rate remained basically unchanged. [2] - In consumption, the mobility was strong. Subway ridership and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, automobile consumption was in line with the seasonality, and movie box office was below the seasonal level. [2] - In terms of inflation, pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased, and oil prices increased. [2] - In exports, the SCFI increased, and the BDI decreased. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: Weak Real Estate Sales, Beijing Provides Support - New home sales this week (October 17 - October 23) increased slightly month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow. The new home sales area in Wind 20 cities increased by 2.83% month-on-month and decreased by 13.03% year-on-year. [7] - New home sales in first-tier and third/fourth-tier cities were significantly stronger than the previous period but weaker than the same period last year. Second-tier cities saw negative growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. [7] - In key cities, most cities saw an increase in new home sales month-on-month. Beijing was the only city with positive year-on-year growth. [7] - Second-hand home sales decreased slightly month-on-month and significantly year-on-year. All key cities saw a decline in second-hand home sales compared to the same period last year. [7] 2. Investment: Commodity Prices Show Mixed Trends - Commodity prices showed mixed trends this week. Rebar and cement prices were basically flat, glass futures prices decreased, and asphalt prices increased. [36] 3. Production: Operating Rates Show Differentiation - Operating rates showed differentiation this week. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills, PTA operating rate, and automobile tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt operating rate and coking enterprise operating rate decreased, and the polyester filament operating rate remained basically unchanged. [45] 4. Consumption: Strong Mobility - Subway ridership and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, automobile sales were in line with the seasonality, and movie box office was below the seasonal level. [58] 5. Exports: SCFI Increases, BDI Decreases - The SCFI index increased this week, while the BDI index and CRB spot index decreased slightly. [61] 6. Prices: Pork Prices Decrease, Vegetable and Oil Prices Increase - Pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased, oil prices increased, and rebar prices were basically flat. [65]

Economic Growth and Structure - The core of macroeconomic policy for Q4 focuses on structure rather than total volume, emphasizing the effective use of existing policies [1][10] - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.2% for the first three quarters, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target [7][10] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reflecting a shift from investment-driven growth to innovation and technology-driven growth [7][8] Investment and Consumption - New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, indicating a need for investment and consumption to be boosted [2][4] - The corporate sector saw new loans of 1.22 trillion yuan in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 50 billion yuan, highlighting a decline in investment willingness [3][4] - Consumer loan growth remains weak, with short-term loans decreasing significantly, suggesting a need for improved consumer sentiment and housing market expectations [2][4] Trade and External Factors - External trade showed resilience, with exports growing by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, despite global economic uncertainties [9] - Factors contributing to the strong export performance include preemptive actions by foreign trade companies and growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar energy [9] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year in September, while core CPI rose by 1%, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [5][6] - The rise in core CPI is driven by increased prices of precious metals and consumer goods, reflecting changes in market dynamics and consumer behavior [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economy showed stable growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with GDP growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. The service and industrial sectors played important roles, and consumption, investment, and net exports all contributed to economic growth [3]. - Industrial production was stable, and the service industry was on an upward trend, strongly supporting economic growth. Consumption potential continued to be released, and investment played a key role in promoting traditional industrial transformation and upgrading. Net exports maintained stable growth [3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs GDP - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q3, GDP was 354,500 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [3]. - The added values of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in the first three quarters were 58,061 billion yuan, 364,020 billion yuan, and 592,955 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4%, and contributions to economic growth of 4.7%, 34.6%, and 60.7% [3]. Industry - In the first three quarters, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.8 percentage points. Manufacturing added value grew by 6.5%, higher than the industrial growth rate. In Q3, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.7 percentage points [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of large - scale industrial enterprises in Q3 2025 was 74.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2 and down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Service - In the first three quarters, service industry added value was 592,955 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 58.4% of GDP, up 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and contributing 60.7% to national economic growth, driving GDP growth by 3.1 percentage points [4]. - In Q3, service industry added value was 202,641 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 57.2% of GDP, contributing 61.8% to national economic growth, and driving GDP growth by 3.0 percentage points [4]. Consumption - Consumption potential continued to be released. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 53.5%, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points. In Q3, it was 56.6%, driving GDP growth by 2.7 percentage points [4]. Investment - Investment played a key role. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of capital formation to economic growth was 17.5%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points. In Q3, it was 18.9%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [5]. - In the first three quarters, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, driving total investment growth by 0.2 percentage points. Internet and related service investment grew by 20.6%, and water transportation investment grew by 12.8% [5]. - From January to September, real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. Residential investment was 520.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.9% [5]. Import and Export - Net exports maintained stable growth. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of goods and services net exports to economic growth was 29.0%, driving GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points. In Q3, it was 24.5%, driving GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points [6]. Prices - In the first three quarters, consumer prices were generally stable, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. - PPI was down 2.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, with a decline of 2.9% in Q3, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to Q2 [6].

Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the national economy maintained a stable and progressive trend in the first three quarters of 2025, with effective policies supporting employment and economic stability [3]. GDP Performance - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [5][6]. Sector Contributions - Agricultural value added grew by 3.6% year-on-year [6]. - Industrial value added for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% year-on-year [6]. - The service sector's value added rose by 5.4% year-on-year [6]. Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 365.877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [7]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371.535 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.5%. However, excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 3.0% [7]. Trade and Price Levels - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 336.078 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling after the National Day holiday, with the market expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4][45][46]. - The official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, still below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly, and different industries showed varying degrees of prosperity [10][27]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism and consumption increased, while the year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and the agricultural product wholesale price was relatively low year - on - year [33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Market - **Treasury Bond Futures Performance**: After the National Day holiday, Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday and fell on Friday. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% for the week, the 10 - year rose 0.09%, the 5 - year was flat, and the 2 - year fell 0.02% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with September 30, the 2 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields rose slightly on October 10, while the 10 - year yield decreased slightly, and the 5 - year yield remained unchanged [7]. Manufacturing PMI - **Overall PMI**: In September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Large enterprises continued to expand slightly, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline in small - enterprise sentiment narrowed [10]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated expansion. The new order index was 49.7%, showing improved demand. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing had rapid production and demand release, while others were below the critical point. The procurement volume index rose to 51.6% [13]. - **Price Index**: The raw material purchase price index was 53.2%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.2%. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined, which may suppress corporate profits. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI in September will narrow [16]. - **Export and Inventory**: The new export order index was 47.8%, and the import index was 48.1%, both showing an increase. The raw material and finished - product inventory indexes increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits from January to August was 7.4% [19][22]. - **Business Expectation**: The employment index and the production and business activity expectation index increased slightly, indicating that enterprises' expectations for future prosperity improved slightly [25]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - **Overall Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, slightly lower than the previous value. The construction industry index was 49.3%, and the service industry index was 50.1% [27]. - **Construction Industry**: The new order index, employment index, and business activity expectation index all showed some changes, with the overall prosperity slightly rising but still weak [29]. - **Service Industry**: The new order index decreased, the employment index remained unchanged, and the business activity expectation index decreased slightly. The input price index and the sales price index both declined [31]. Other Economic Data - **Holiday Consumption**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists and total tourism spending increased. The daily average sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year, with service consumption growing faster [33]. - **Commercial Housing Transactions**: The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and it is expected that the decline in the fourth quarter may exceed that in the third quarter [36]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In early October, the agricultural product wholesale price fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected that the year - on - year decline will narrow significantly in the next two months [39]. - **Funding Rate**: After the National Day holiday, the overnight funding rate fell to a low level. The central bank carried out a 1100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain market liquidity [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8%, slightly exceeding expectations but still below the boom - bust line, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 pct to 50.0%. The supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, putting pressure on enterprise profit restoration. Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a relatively low level. The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. The bond market priced the fundamentals further on the day the data was released, and it is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was slightly better than expected but below the boom - bust line, rising 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 49.6%), basically in line with seasonality. The non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 50.2%), remaining at a seasonal low. Among them, the service industry PMI dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI rose slightly by 0.2 pct to 49.3%, both weaker than seasonality [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing Industry** - Manufacturing sentiment has moderately recovered, but the supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. In September, the manufacturing PMI improved more than expected, rising 0.4 pct to 49.8%. The production index rose 1.1 pct to 51.9%, reaching a new high since Q2 this year, while the new order index only increased 0.2 pct to 49.7%. The gap between the "production - new order" index widened to 2.2 pct, indicating that the supply recovery intensity may be greater than the demand improvement. Enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory has increased, but there are signs of inventory accumulation, and production may be "front - loaded" [7]. - There are differentiations in external and internal demand and price structure. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the price indicators have generally improved, but the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, which may still restrict enterprise profit restoration. In September, the purchase price index of major raw materials remained in the expansion range of 53.2%, while the ex - factory price index dropped to 48.2%, and the gap between the two widened to 5.0 pct. External demand remained resilient, with the new export order index rising to 47.8%, while domestic demand recovery was still relatively slow, with the new order index only increasing 0.2 pct to 49.7% [7]. - Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. In September, the PMI of large - scale enterprises reached 51.0%, remaining in the expansion range. Small - scale enterprises improved significantly, with the PMI rising 1.6 pct month - on - month, while the sentiment of medium - scale enterprises declined. In terms of industries, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries remained in the high - sentiment range above 51%, with significant improvements in industries such as automobiles and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment. The PMI of the consumer goods industry also rose to 50.6% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing Industry** - Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a seasonal low. In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0%, and the service industry index dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%. The end of the summer vacation effect is an important factor, with the sentiment of consumer - related industries such as catering and cultural and entertainment significantly declining, while modern service industries such as finance and telecommunications maintained high sentiment. The business activity index of the construction industry rose slightly by 0.2 pct, but the absolute level of 49.3% was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that real estate and infrastructure investment may continue to be under pressure [7]. - **Bond Market Outlook** - The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. On the day the data was released, the bond market priced the fundamentals further, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond dropping 2 BP. A series of growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented recently, and the investment of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may support infrastructure investment. The expectation of optimizing real estate market regulation policies in many places has increased, but whether the economy will continue to improve in an environment of weak domestic demand and prices remains to be seen. It is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [7].

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is expected to be around 4.8%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters[3] - The manufacturing investment growth rate from January to September is projected to be 4.0%, which is the first time since 2021 that it may fall below the GDP growth rate[1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a month-on-month increase of about 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of around -0.2% in September[11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decline by approximately -0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year improvement from -2.9% to -2.5%[12] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to drop to -0.2% for the first nine months, with real estate investment declining by 13.2%[18] - Retail sales growth is projected to be around 3.2% in September, influenced by high base effects from durable goods[21] Policy Adjustments - Recent policy adjustments include changes to real estate purchase restrictions in major cities and the introduction of new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan to support project capital[2][5] - The government aims to enhance economic monitoring and timely policy adjustments based on economic conditions[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights improvements in industrial production, sustained high levels of infrastructure construction, and a rebound in real estate transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the economy [2][5][24]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown improvement, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 3.5% week-on-week and 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 83.9% [5][12]. - The chemical production chain has also seen a rise, with soda ash and PTA operating rates increasing by 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, year-on-year changes being +2.7 percentage points to 12.5% and +8.5 percentage points to 75% [12][16]. - The automotive sector has experienced an uptick, with the operating rate of semi-steel tires rising by 6% week-on-week and 5.8 percentage points year-on-year to 73.5% [12]. Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - Infrastructure construction remains at a high level, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates increasing by 4.3% and 1.2 percentage points respectively, year-on-year changes being +5.8 percentage points to 44.7% and +1.1 percentage points to 46.4% [16][22]. - The asphalt operating rate has slightly decreased by 1.8% week-on-week but remains at a high level year-on-year at 38.4% [22]. Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - Real estate transactions have improved, with the average daily transaction area of new homes rising by 9.6 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3 million square meters, particularly in first and second-tier cities [25][28]. - Port cargo throughput related to exports has shown strong performance, with year-on-year increases of 1.3 percentage points to 8.5% [32]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have rebounded, with prices for eggs, vegetables, and pork increasing by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [57]. - Industrial product prices are showing divergence, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.1% week-on-week, while energy and chemical prices decreased by 0.2% [63].