Domestic Macro - Demand Side - During the New Year holiday, consumer demand for travel and cinema surged, with retail sales of passenger cars showing a narrowing year-on-year decline of 19.5%[1] - In December 2025, the external demand showed an increase in volume but a decrease in price, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) at 2315.2, reflecting a 5.1% increase[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The PMI and high-frequency data showed a divergence, with the PMI at 50.1% in December 2025, indicating no significant improvement in physical workload[1] - The production impact of the late Spring Festival in 2026 was minimal, with the production index showing a 3.42 percentage point increase compared to November 2025[1] Price Performance - CPI showed fluctuations in pork prices and a continuous rise in fruit prices, with a 0.43% increase noted[2] - PPI indicated a weakening in crude oil prices while non-ferrous metal prices showed volatility, with WTI at 1.77%[2] Fiscal Policy - In January 2026, local government bond issuance plans are set at 580 billion, reflecting a 104.4% increase compared to the previous year[2] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has shifted upward, with the SHIBOR 007 rate at 1.9560%, up by 51 basis points[2] Global Macro - Global financial market activity has cooled due to the New Year holiday, impacting trading volumes[2]

Core Viewpoint - The latest poll conducted by the Japanese government under Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide has recorded the lowest approval ratings since 1998, indicating significant public concern over economic conditions in Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - 73% of respondents identified "prices" as the area in which Japan is deteriorating, marking a 2% increase from the previous survey and the highest level since the poll's inception in 1998 [1][2]. - 52% of participants believe that "economic conditions" are also worsening, while 41% think that "national finances" are in decline [3]. Group 2: Positive Developments - In terms of areas perceived to be improving, "disaster prevention," "healthcare," and "education" ranked highest, but the approval rates were low at 22%, 20%, and 16% respectively [3].

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: December 22, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523120001) [1][2] Core Views - Production-side heat continues to decline, with continuous drops in coke oven, blast furnace, and asphalt开工率, stable PX and PTA开工率, and a slight decrease in semi-steel tire开工率 - Commodity housing transactions show marginal improvement, while land supply area seasonally and rapidly declines - Prices show marginal recovery, with increases in coking coal, copper, aluminum, and rebar prices, a continuous decline in crude oil prices, and agricultural products rising to recent highs - Residents' travel heat rebounds, with increases in the number of executed flights and the peak congestion index in first-tier cities. Short-term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][28] Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 1.42 pct, blast furnace开工率 decreased by 0.16 pct, and rebar production increased by 2.9 tons - Petroleum Asphalt:开工率 continued to decline by 0.2 pct at a low level - Chemicals: PX and PTA开工率 remained flat - Automobile Tires: All-steel tire开工率 increased by 0.07 pct, while semi-steel tire开工率 decreased by 0.18 pct [2][8] Demand - Real Estate: Commodity housing transaction area increased, and the inventory-to-sales ratio rose; land supply area declined from a high level to a low level, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased - Movie Box Office: It decreased by 1.394 billion yuan compared to the previous week - Automobile: The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 24,000 units, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 20,000 units - Shipping Freight Rates: The SCFI index increased by 3.08%, the CCFI index increased by 0.60%, and the BDI index continued to decline significantly by 8.25% [3][11][13] Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.06% to $60.47 per barrel - Coking Coal: Futures prices increased by 7.92% to 1,110 yuan per ton - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +2.85%, +2.43%, and -2.12% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices increased by 1.43% - Agricultural Products: Overall prices continued to rise, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index increasing by 0.52%, and pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changing by +0.17%, -0.53%, -1.34%, and +1.59% respectively compared to the previous week [3][18][21] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: It increased in Beijing and decreased in Shanghai - Executed Flights: Both domestic and international flight volumes increased - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities increased [24][26]

Economic Confidence Index - The "Economic Confidence Index" for December 2025 is reported at 50, slightly lower than the previous month, indicating a weak recovery in the economy [6][8]. Inflation Predictions - Economists predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 to be 0.72%, up from 0.2% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.05% [9][10]. Retail Sales Growth - The forecast for the year-on-year growth of social retail sales in November is 3.09%, slightly higher than the previous month's 2.9%, driven by the "Double 11" shopping festival and a recovery in the dining sector [10][11]. Industrial Value Added - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial value added in November is 5.0%, an increase from the previous month's 4.9% [11]. Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7%, indicating continued pressure from the real estate market [12][14]. Real Estate Investment - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for real estate development investment in November is -15.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus for November is reported at $111.68 billion, with exports growing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9%, aligning with economists' expectations [15]. New Loans - Economists forecast new loans for November to rebound to 679.1 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 220 billion yuan [16]. Total Social Financing - The predicted total social financing for November is 2.32 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous month's 0.81 trillion yuan [17]. M2 Growth Rate - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in November is 8.29%, slightly above the previous month's 8.2% [18]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists expect the possibility of adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and reserve requirement ratios to be low in the near term, with a continued focus on maintaining liquidity in the market [20]. Exchange Rate Predictions - The predicted exchange rate for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar at the end of 2025 is 7.07, with expectations of a potential adjustment to 6.98 by mid-2026 [21]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves are reported at $33,464 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of China's economy in 2025 is expected to be satisfactory, with a target growth rate of around 5% achievable based on current development trends [1]. Economic Support Factors - Three main factors supporting the achievement of economic goals are identified: 1. Proactive macro policies, including active fiscal policy, moderately loose monetary policy, and supportive consumption and investment policies, provide strong support for economic recovery [3]. 2. Export performance has exceeded expectations, with a "dual抢效应" from enterprises and importers maintaining positive growth despite initial pressures from the US "tariff war" [3]. 3. Increased resilience in the domestic market contributes positively to economic stability [3]. Current Economic Challenges - Two prominent issues facing the economy are highlighted: 1. Persistently low price levels, with both production and consumer prices not returning to normal, which constrains investment, consumption, and corporate profitability [3]. 2. Insufficient domestic effective demand, with investment demand experiencing a negative growth for the first time in over 40 years, showing a decline of approximately 2% from January to November, primarily due to a double-digit decrease in real estate investment, which accounts for one-third of total investment [3]. Focus on Real Estate Investment - Addressing the impact of declining real estate investment will be a key issue that needs to be resolved moving forward [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week's main concerns include a slight rebound in the week-on-week new home sales in 20 cities, a widening year-on-year decline, and only Hangzhou's new home sales were higher than the same period last year. Overall, the real estate sales remained weak. Commodity prices mostly rose, the production remained stable with a differentiated performance in the operating rates. The box office was significantly higher than the seasonal level due to the release of popular movies, which concentratedly reflected the viewing demand [2]. - The year-on-year decline in new home sales widened this week. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Specifically, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices rose. The price of rebar increased slightly, with robust demand, steel mills reducing production, and merchants reluctant to sell, which supported the price increase. The cement price increased slightly as the weather improved, construction accelerated, and manufacturers pushed up the price, but the demand support was limited. The glass futures price rose, with an enhanced expectation of supply contraction, solid cost support, and short - term improvement in production and sales. The asphalt price decreased slightly due to the seasonal shrinkage of demand, sufficient supply, and weakened cost - end support [2]. - In industrial production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the travel momentum was strong. The subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile consumption, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [2]. - In terms of inflation, the pork price decreased, the vegetable price and oil price increased. This week, the vegetable price increased due to cold weather and rainfall leading to vegetable production reduction and poor supply connection. The crude oil price increased, driven by the expected production cut by OPEC+, the decline in US production, and geopolitical risks [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI increased this week. The transportation demand on the East Coast of the United States route rebounded, shipping companies promoted freight rate increases, and the operating cost provided support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remained Weak Year-on-Year - From November 21st to November 27th, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Among them, the new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2][7]. - In terms of key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Beijing (-32.88%), Shenzhen (-28.09%), and Hangzhou (-1.38%), the new home transactions in other key cities were significantly stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, except for Hangzhou (18.73%), the new home transaction areas in other key cities were much weaker than the same period last year [7]. - From November 21st to November 27th, the second - hand home transactions showed a differentiated week-on-week performance, and the year-on-year decline widened. In key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Hangzhou (-1.46%) and Shenzhen (-7.75%), the second - hand home transaction areas in other key cities were stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, the second - hand home transaction areas in all key cities decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [7]. 2. Investment: Commodity Prices Mostly Rose - In terms of investment, most commodity prices rose this week. The prices of rebar and cement increased slightly, the glass futures price rose, and the asphalt price decreased slightly [31]. 3. Production: Operating Rates Showed a Differentiated Performance - In production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance this week. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [39]. 4. Consumption: Travel Momentum was Strong - In terms of consumption, the subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile sales, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [49]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Increased - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased slightly, the BDI index increased, the port cargo throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly this week [55]. 6. Prices: Pork Price Decreased, Vegetable Price Increased, Oil Price Increased - In terms of prices, the pork price decreased slightly, the vegetable price increased, the oil price increased, and the rebar price increased slightly [60].

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 24, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The production side's heat continues to decline, with significant decreases in the operating rates of blast furnaces, asphalt, PX, PTA, all-steel tires, and semi-steel tires. - The commercial housing transaction area has marginally rebounded but remains lower than the same period in previous years. The land supply area is on a seasonal upward trend, and a peak in land supply is expected at the end of the month. - Prices have generally declined, including those of crude oil, coking coal, copper, aluminum, zinc, and four key monitored agricultural products: pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits. - In terms of shipping prices, the SCFI has declined for three consecutive weeks, while the BDI has risen significantly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment sides and the recovery of the real estate market [2][32]. Summary by Directory Production - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate remained flat, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pct, and the rebar production increased by 7.96 tons [3][9]. - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 4.2 pct [3][9]. - Chemicals: The PX operating rate decreased by 0.36 pct, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.25 pct [3][9]. - Automobile Tires: The all-steel tire operating rate decreased by 3.19 pct, and the semi-steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.61 pct [3][10]. Demand - Real Estate: The commercial housing transaction area marginally rebounded, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased, the land supply area grew, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [3][15]. - Movie Box Office: It increased by 444 million yuan compared to the previous week [3][15]. - Automobiles: The daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 21,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 27,000 vehicles [3][17]. - Shipping Freight Rates: The SCFI index decreased by 3.98%, the CCFI index increased by 2.63%, and the BDI index increased by 7.06% [3][20]. Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price decreased by 2.84% to $62.56 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreased by 7.33% to 1,113 yuan per ton [4][22]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by -0.63%, -1.77%, and -0.75% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.43% [4][23]. - Agricultural Products: The overall price slightly declined, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index decreasing by 0.10%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -0.83%, -3.46%, -0.70%, and -0.14% respectively compared to the previous week [4][25]. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: In Beijing, it decreased, while in Shanghai, it increased [4][28]. - Flight Operations: Both domestic and international flight volumes rebounded [4][29]. - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities stabilized and rebounded [4][29]. Summary - The production continues to decline, and prices are generally decreasing. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment sides and the recovery of the real estate market [32].

Price-Related Summary - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index is at 1,045.84, down 16.48 from last week [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.38 per barrel, an increase of $0.37 from last week, while WTI crude oil settled at $59.00 per barrel, up $0.31 [3] - Average wholesale prices for vegetables decreased by ¥0.04 per kg, fruits by ¥0.01 per kg, pork by ¥0.15 per kg, beef by ¥0.25 per kg, and lamb by ¥0.40 per kg [3] Industrial-Related Summary - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index is at 3,456.21, down 66.82 from last week [14] - Glass futures closed at ¥987 per ton, down ¥45 per ton, and coking coal futures closed at ¥1,103 per ton, down ¥89 per ton [14] - The blast furnace operating rate is recorded at 82.17%, a decrease of 2.08% from last week, while the operating rate for petroleum asphalt is at 24.80%, down 4.20% [14] Real Estate Investment Summary - The land transaction area in 100 major cities is approximately 13,497,800 square meters, an increase of 7,013,200 square meters from last week [21] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is about 1,725,600 square meters, up 330,500 square meters from last week [21] - The second-hand housing listing price index is recorded at 148.80, down 0.26, with the decline rate less than the previous week [21] Transportation and Retail Summary - Subway passenger volumes increased significantly, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing changes of -1.16%, 2.41%, 4.17%, and 1.91% respectively [31] - Box office revenue reached ¥656 million, an increase of ¥444 million from last week [31] - Retail sales of passenger cars totaled 67,312 units, up 21,256 units from last week [31] - The number of domestic flights executed was 86,716, an increase of 822 from last week [31]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the weak yen is driving up import prices, contributing to the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations on prices [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 17, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with decreases in the capacity utilization rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire capacity utilization rates remained relatively stable [2][31]. - The demand side shows a decline in commercial housing transaction area, an increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio, a decrease in land supply area, and a decline in the residential land transaction premium rate. Movie box office, automobile retail, and wholesale volumes have also decreased. However, the BDI index has risen slightly [2][3]. - Prices have improved marginally compared to the previous week. Crude oil and copper prices have rebounded, while coking coal prices have dropped significantly. Agricultural product prices continue their seasonal upward trend [2][4]. - In terms of shipping prices, the SCFI has declined for two consecutive weeks, while the BDI has increased slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. Section Summaries Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.74 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.32 pct, and rebar production decreased by 8.54 tons [2][10]. - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct [2][10]. - Chemicals: The PX operating rate remained flat, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.77 pct [2][10]. - Automobile Tires: The all-steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.96 pct, and the semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 0.01 pct [2][11]. Demand - Real Estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio increased, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate declined [3][14]. - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 3 million yuan compared to the previous week [3][14]. - Automobile: Daily retail sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles, and daily wholesale sales decreased by 158,000 vehicles [3][16]. - Shipping Freight: The SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, the CCFI index increased by 3.39%, and the BDI index increased by 1% [3][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price increased by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, while coking coal futures price decreased by 6.06% to 1,201 yuan per ton [4][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.41%, -0.12%, and -1.70% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.36% [4][22]. - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to rise, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index increasing by 0.20%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by -0.93%, +2.31%, -1.04%, and +0.85% respectively compared to the previous week [4][24]. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased slightly, while Shanghai's increased slightly [27]. - Flight Operations: Domestic flight operations increased, while international flight operations continued to decrease [29]. - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities declined at an accelerating rate [29]. Summary - The production heat continued to decline, with decreases in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire operating rates remained relatively stable [31]. - The commercial housing transaction area declined, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Land supply area decreased marginally, with a expected peak in land supply at the end of the month [31]. - Prices improved marginally compared to the previous week, with crude oil and copper prices rebounding, coking coal prices dropping significantly, and agricultural product prices continuing their seasonal upward trend [31]. - Shipping prices saw the SCFI decline for two consecutive weeks and the BDI increase slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [31].