Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The zinc price is supported by the temporary tightening of the mining end and exports. With the end of the US government shutdown and the recovery of market risk appetite, the zinc price will fluctuate strongly in the upper - middle range of the Bollinger Bands in the short term [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Futures Market**: For SHFE zinc contracts 2511, 2512, and 2601, the closing prices were 22,730 yuan/ton, 22,740 yuan/ton, and 22,785 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 130 yuan (0.58%), 100 yuan (0.44%), and 105 yuan (0.46%). The main contract 2512 had a trading volume increase and a position decrease of 2,967 lots to 102,938 lots [7] - **Inventory**: Since November, there have been successive deliveries in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. On the 12th, LME zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash - 3M spread was 128.30B, indicating a relief of supply tightness [7] - **Domestic Mines**: Northern domestic mines have seasonal production cuts, and some mines have actively controlled production after completing their annual plans. The domestic zinc concentrate TC has weakened month - on - month [7] - **Downstream**: The peak season for downstream industries is ending, and environmental protection warnings are frequent. The operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased month - on - month, and downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory based on rigid demand [7] - **Spot Premium**: The spot premium remained stable month - on - month. The Shanghai market had a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract, the Tianjin market had a premium of 130 yuan/ton over the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market's premium decreased slightly, with a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [7] 2. Industry News - **Price Range**: On November 13, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were 22,705 - 22,820 yuan/ton, and for 1 zinc, it was 22,635 - 22,750 yuan/ton. Different brands had different premiums or discounts to the 2512 contract in different markets [8] - **Regional Markets**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22,665 - 22,780 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,550 - 22,750 yuan/ton, and in the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,535 - 22,680 yuan/ton, with different premiums or discounts to relevant contracts and the Shanghai market [8] 3. Data Overview - **Data Sources**: The data in the report are from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][14][16] - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads [12][15]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - In November, domestic zinc concentrate treatment charges (TC) dropped significantly, and overseas TC also decreased synchronously. With strong demand from smelters for zinc concentrate, TC is expected to decline further. [5] - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profits are severely compressed, leading to losses in high - cost areas, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure more than expected. [5] - Overseas zinc inventories are still low despite a slight increase in warehouse receipts, with high spot premiums. Domestic inventories are falling, and the export window is fully open, with the possibility of a significant seasonal decline in social inventories. [5] - Micro - data has almost fully shifted from bearish to bullish, while the macro - economic background remains positive. [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $176.55 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan per ton, with a change of 90 yuan from the previous trading day and a premium of - 45 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan, with a premium of - 75 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,620 yuan per ton, up 90 yuan, with a premium of - 85 yuan per ton. [2] - **Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,770 yuan per ton, closed at 22,675 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan. The trading volume was 81,702 lots, and the open interest was 107,475 lots. The highest price was 22,810 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,630 yuan per ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 11, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory is 159,600 tons, a change of 9,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, a change of 400 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc concentrate TC are both declining, and smelting profits are compressed, which will reduce supply - side pressure. [5] - Overseas inventories are low with high spot premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, with the export window open. [5] Strategy - Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral. [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite signs of weakness in the crude oil market, fuel premiums for gasoline and diesel have surged, offsetting declines and leading to a rise in oil prices [1][2] - Brent crude oil futures are approaching $65 per barrel, marking a third consecutive day of increases, driven by rising fuel premiums and technical buying from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) [1] - Energy Aspects highlights that a significant buying trigger for CTAs exists above $64.50 per barrel, suggesting an upward risk balance, although hedging flows may limit volatility [1] Group 2 - The refined oil market remains strong despite the softening crude oil futures curve, with fuel premiums at high levels, particularly in Europe where diesel benchmark prices have reached their highest since early last year [2] - Analysts from PVM suggest that without the strong support from the refined oil market, crude oil prices would likely be lower, and the narrowing of the spot premium between WTI and Brent is noteworthy [2] - OPEC is set to release its monthly market analysis report, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) will provide its annual outlook, with previous forecasts indicating a record surplus in global crude oil by 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to decline this year and early next year as geopolitical risk premiums decrease, with Brent crude potentially falling to the low $50s per barrel during the holiday season, before recovering to around $65 per barrel by the second half of next year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite expectations of an oversupply in the oil market by 2025, this situation has not yet materialized, with strong short-term demand indicated by the persistent "contango" in the market [2]. - As of October 13, Brent crude spot prices were assessed at $64.23 per barrel, significantly down from over $80 per barrel in January [2]. - Key factors contributing to market resilience include geopolitical "panic factors" from conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, as well as low oil inventories in developed countries [2]. Group 2: China's Role - China is seen as an exception in the oil market, with ongoing strategic oil reserve accumulation providing support [3]. - Although oil inventories in Western developed countries remain low, surplus crude is primarily flowing to China, which may serve as a "floating storage" for unsold oil from Iran and Venezuela [3]. - Demand for gasoline and diesel in China has plateaued, influenced by the trend towards electrification, despite growth in petrochemical demand [3]. Group 3: Supply Trends - Oil prices are currently in a downward trend, with more crude entering the market in the second half of the year due to steady increases in OPEC+ production and rising output from non-OPEC countries like Guyana, Norway, and Brazil [4]. - Since April, OPEC+ has announced multiple rounds of production increases [4]. Group 4: Risk Premiums - The oil market has been characterized by geopolitical risk premiums throughout the year, but these premiums are gradually dissipating as the market's ability to cope with geopolitical shocks improves [5]. - Recent developments, such as a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, have not fully resolved ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine situation, which continues to impact energy markets [5][6]. - There is a possibility that the market may be underestimating the likelihood of sudden supply disruptions from key oil-producing countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, which are currently facing unstable conditions [7].

Industry Summary - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc market is experiencing one of the most severe squeezes in decades, with traders competing for dwindling inventories, pushing spot zinc prices to their highest premium levels in over 20 years [1] - The premium of spot zinc over three-month contracts has surged to $323 per ton, marking the highest level since at least 1997, indicating strong spot demand exceeding immediate supply [1] - Despite ongoing supply pressures domestically, fundamental factors are showing marginal changes, with macro data trending upwards, suggesting a potential halt in zinc price declines [1] - There are emerging risks in overseas warehouse receipts, and the opening of zinc ingot export windows may lead to lower-than-expected domestic inventory accumulation, which could be a bullish factor if seasonal inventory declines occur [1] - The development of new energy and infrastructure investments is driving actual consumption, with estimated zinc consumption growth potentially reaching 5%, further supported by the integration of smelting and zinc alloy production [1] Company Summary - Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd. focuses on the mining, selection, and smelting of lead and zinc ores, with a zinc metal output of approximately 1.1 million tons [2] - Weiling Co., Ltd. acquired a 74.3% stake in Jiayu Mining in May, which holds a mining license for a 30,000-ton annual production capacity of various non-ferrous metals, including tungsten, tin, lead, and zinc [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc market is experiencing one of the most severe supply squeezes in decades, leading to a continuous rise in spot zinc prices for three consecutive days, with significant pressure on short sellers to cover positions or deliver physical metal [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Spot zinc prices have increased by 0.37% to $2,999 per ton, marking a third consecutive day of price rise [1]. - The premium of spot zinc over three-month contracts has surged to $323 per ton, the highest level in over 20 years, indicating that spot demand exceeds immediate supply [1]. - LME warehouse zinc inventory has plummeted to 24,425 tons, which is insufficient to meet even one day's demand in a global market with an annual consumption of 14 million tons [3][4]. Group 2: Market Pressure and Positioning - The significant long positions held by six independent entities correspond to at least three times the available inventory in the LME warehouse, putting short sellers in a precarious position [5]. - The Tom/next price spread, reflecting the cost of rolling over contracts, reached $30 per ton, the highest since 2022, indicating tight market conditions [3]. - Analysts suggest that the inability of LME inventories to attract new metal inflows may necessitate exports from China to alleviate short-term market pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The current market dynamics are characterized by a delicate balance, with low inventory levels making the market susceptible to shocks [4]. - The overall metal market is experiencing moderate movements, influenced by changes in trade outlook and uncertainty regarding risk assets, with copper prices slightly declining [6].

Group 1: Hot News - European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiations, endorsing Trump's proposal of an immediate ceasefire and using the current contact line as the starting point for talks, and reaffirming that international borders should not be changed by force [2] - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.45% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month-on-month, and production increased by 2.71% month-on-month [2] - In 2026, the total tariff-rate quota for fertilizer imports in China is 13.65 million tons, including 3.3 million tons of urea [2] - Rio Tinto has stockpiled about 2 million tons of high-grade iron ore at the Simandou project in Guinea and will ship it in mid - November. WCS, which operates another Simandou iron mine, started hoarding ore in September. Simandou is expected to produce 120 million tons of iron ore annually at full capacity [2] - The zinc market on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is facing its worst supply squeeze in decades, with the premium of spot zinc over three - month futures soaring to $323 per ton, the highest since at least 1997 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, and PP [4] - In the holiday overseas market, the night - session price changes of commodity futures main contracts show that non - metallic building materials rose 2.96%, precious metals 31.40%, oilseeds and oils 10.12%, soft commodities 2.71%, non - ferrous metals 20.62%, coal, coke, and steel ore 13.02%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 11.31%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.67% [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel ore, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the SSE 50 rose 1.09%, the CSI 300 rose 1.53%, the CSI 500 rose 1.64%, the S&P 500 was flat, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.65%, the German DAX rose 0.29%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.25% [6] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.04% [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index fell 0.36%, WTI crude oil rose 0.96%, London spot gold fell 5.31%, LME copper fell 0.89%, and the Wind commodity index rose 1.99% [6] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.35%, and the CBOE volatility index was flat [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market shows external support, with the LME zinc market facing a severe squeeze due to Western smelter production cuts and depleting inventories, leading to a significant increase in the spot premium [2] - The zinc trend strength is neutral, with a value of 0 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,970 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,976 dollars/ton, up 1.24% [1] - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 108,521 lots, an increase of 10,835 lots; the LME zinc trading volume was 8,609 lots, a decrease of 2,492 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 130,442 lots, an increase of 5,270 lots; the LME zinc open interest was 224,013 lots, a decrease of 200 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 230.29 dollars/ton, an increase of 100.29 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 66,268 tons, a decrease of 151 tons; LME zinc inventory was 37,275 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [1] 3.2 News - **LME Zinc "Squeeze"**: The LME zinc market is experiencing its most severe squeeze in decades, with available zinc inventories less than one - day's demand and the spot premium soaring to the highest level since 1997 [2] - **Russia - Ukraine Process**: The preparation for the "Trump - Putin meeting" has encountered obstacles, and the call for an "immediate cease - fire" by European countries has created uncertainty for the meeting [2][3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc market is experiencing one of the most severe squeezes in decades, with traders scrambling for dwindling inventories, pushing spot zinc prices to their highest premium levels in over 20 years [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The premium of spot zinc over three-month contracts has surged to $323 per ton, marking the highest level since at least 1997, indicating a typical sign of spot demand exceeding immediate supply [1][3]. - Traders are rapidly purchasing remaining inventories, with six independent entities holding large long positions that correspond to at least three times the immediately available inventory in the LME storage system [3][4]. - The significant long positions put pressure on short sellers, who may face substantial losses if unable to deliver physical metal [4]. Group 2: Inventory Situation - LME zinc inventories have plummeted to near historical lows due to production cuts by Western smelters following a collapse in processing profits, with only 24,425 tons available for buyers, insufficient to meet even one day's demand in a global market consuming 14 million tons annually [4]. - The current low inventory levels create a fragile balance in the market, making it susceptible to shocks, as noted by industry experts [4]. Group 3: Price Discrepancies and Export Opportunities - The disparity in zinc prices between the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has prompted some Chinese smelters to plan exports, which may provide short-term relief for buyers in the LME market, although it may not fundamentally resolve the inventory shortage [5].

格隆汇10月21日｜伦敦金属交易所(LME)锌市场正面临数十年来最严重的供应紧缩，交易商争相抢购支 撑交易所合约的持续萎缩库存。现货锌价较三个月期货合约的溢价飙升至每吨323美元，创下至少自 1997年以来最高水平。这一"现货升水"现象是现货需求超过供应的典型标志。随着西方多家炼厂因加工 费暴跌而减产，LME仓库库存已骤降至2023年创纪录的低点附近，买家压力持续累积数月。目前LME 仓库中仅剩24425吨锌可供提取——这甚至不足以满足全球1400万吨年消费量市场一日之需。现货与三 个月期锌价差飙升之际，LME数据显示交易商正疯狂争夺剩余库存。有六家独立机构持有LME库存多 单及未来两日内到期合约，其总持仓规模相当于LME仓库立即可用库存量的至少300%。另一方面，现 货升水可能使无实物交割能力的空头面临巨额亏损。 ...