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新能源及有色金属日报:现货升水稳中偏弱,库存维稳-20250617
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:40
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot premium of zinc is moderately weak, and the inventory remains stable. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market is poor, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$22.95/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 240 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 20 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price drops by 280 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 60 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 230 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 10 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On June 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,745 yuan/ton and closes at 21,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 163,962 lots, a decrease of 27,075 lots, and the open interest is 116,264 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots. The highest price is 21,935 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory is 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream raw material reserves are relatively sufficient, and the procurement enthusiasm is poor. The spot premium shows a moderately weak trend. The domestic ore TC is temporarily stable, the zinc ore import window is closed, and the overseas Q3 import ore TC is rising. The smelter's raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the long - term upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged. The smelting profit is stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy start - up rate is increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" phenomenon. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market weakens, and the spot premium continues to decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]
新能源及有色金属日报:现货升水进一步走弱-20250612
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 02:52
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot premium of zinc has further weakened. The supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate likely in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong, it cannot offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][4] - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is recommended for single - side trading, and a neutral stance for arbitrage [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$33.05/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 20 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton and closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 170,227 lots, an increase of 11,596 lots. Open interest was 125,779 lots, a decrease of 9,292 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,855 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 11, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 132,575 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Spot market: After the absolute price increase, the spot purchasing enthusiasm declined, and the spot premium further weakened [4] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and long - term high supply growth likely in the second half of the year [4] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of China - US tariffs has not yet appeared. It cannot offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [4] Strategy - Single - side trading: Cautious and bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]
新能源及有色金属日报:绝对价格上行拖累现货升水-20250605
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:51
Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [4] Group 2: Core Views - The rising absolute price of zinc has weakened the purchasing enthusiasm in the spot market, and both the spot premium and monthly spread have slightly declined. The supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high - supply growth rate in the second half of the year. The impact of Sino - US tariffs on consumption has not yet appeared, and the consumption is guaranteed. The comprehensive decline in inventory strongly supports the zinc price, but there is a risk of weakening consumption in June [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$26.08/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,790 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a flat spot premium of 460 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 560 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On June 3, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,330 yuan/ton and closed at 22,180 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 155,440 lots, down 26,261 lots, and the open interest was 122,728 lots, up 6,114 lots. The highest price was 22,515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,090 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,400 tons, down 1,400 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 137,350 tons, down 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]
油价大跌3%!伊朗称愿与美国达成协议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 09:32
市场担忧伊朗可能达成核协议,地缘政治缓和继续推动石油供应前景宽松。周四,国际油价短线走低,WTI原油和布油均跌超3%。 此前,及其盟友上个月开始恢复自2022年以来暂停的供应。根据周三发布的月度报告,该组织4月份仅增加了25000桶/日的产量,远低于此前计划 的138000桶/日。该联盟将在6月1日的会议上考虑进一步增产。 油价下跌也受到美国原油库存增加的影响。政府数据显示,美国原油库存增幅创下自3月以来之最,终结了此前连续四天的上涨行情。 伊朗核协议预期引发油价下跌 据参考消息援引路透社5月14日报道,伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的顾问阿里·沙姆哈尼在美国全国广播公司14日发布的采访中表示,伊朗愿与美国达 成协议,以换取美国解除对伊经济制裁。 今年以来原油价格下跌超过13%。美国生产商表示,预计在年底前油价不会有太大变化。如果伊朗供应增加,可能会加剧今年晚些时候的潜在供 应过剩。 据,伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的一位高级顾问14日向美媒透露,伊朗准备在一定条件下与美国总统特朗普签署核协议,以换取解除经济制裁。据媒 体报道,特朗普15日称,与伊朗达成协议的距离非常接近。 受此消息影响,布伦特原油价格跌破每桶65美元,此前一 ...
瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250514
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 09:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing. Coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm increases, and overall production will continue to rise. Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting purchases has improved, the spot premium is high, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, entering the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance. [3] - Technically, the price stands above the MA10 with support below, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,710 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. [3] - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,052 lots, down 3,743 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,520 lots, up 11,528 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,600 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons, down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,950 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,840 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,970 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan. [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 130 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 27.34 US dollars/ton, up 0.03 US dollars. [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,600 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. [3] - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons, up 800 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the completed housing area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 11.67%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 17.07%, up 0.41%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Internationally, the unadjusted CPI in the US in April increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. US President Trump pressured the Fed Chairman to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Traders continued to bet that the Fed would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October. [3] - The European Central Bank Governing Council member Villeroy said that since trade tensions have not intensified inflation in the region, the central bank may cut interest rates again by summer. Governing Council member Rehn pointed out that increased defense spending does not necessarily push up inflation. [3] - Domestically, China adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 10% and suspended the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for 90 days. [3]