报告日期：2025 年 11 月 20 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：俄罗斯不计划主动减少石油产量 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至 11 月 17 日当周，阿联酋富查伊 拉港的成品油总库存为 2065.2 万桶，较一周前减少 115.9 万桶。其中轻质馏分 油库存减少 56.2 万桶至 722.5 万桶，中质馏分油库存增加 17.6 万桶至 318.8 万 桶，重质残渣燃料油库存减少 77.3 万桶至 1023.9 万桶。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表 示:俄罗斯 2025 年石油产量预测维持不变，为 5.1 亿吨。俄罗斯不计划主动减少 石油产量，将坚持欧佩克+协议。中金公司拟吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券，作 为代表国家意志的金融平台，汇金公司推动券商股整合是落实国家金融战略重要 举措。 重点品种：股指、原油、甲醇 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指分化，有色金属和石油石化板块 领涨，综合和房地产板块领跌，市场成交额 1.74 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 18 日融资余额增加 25.81 亿元至 24849.01 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技 自立，预计科技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有 ...

阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至 11 月 17 日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为 2065.2 万桶， 较一周前减少 115.9 万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存减少 56.2 万桶至 722.5 万桶，中质馏分油库存增加 17.6 万桶至 318.8 万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存减少 77.3 万桶至 1023.9 万桶。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示 : 俄罗斯 2025 年石油产量预测维 持不变，为 5.1 亿吨。俄罗斯不计划主动减少石油产量，将坚持欧佩克 + 协议。中金公司拟吸收合并东兴证券、信达 证券，作为代表国家意志的金融平台，汇金公司推动券商股整合是落实国家金融战略重要举措。 首席点评： 俄罗斯不计划主动减少石油产量 重点品种：股指、原油、甲醇 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指分化，有色金属和石油石化板块领涨，综合和房地产板块领跌，市场成交 额 1.74 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 18 日融资余额增加 25.81 亿元至 24849.01 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美 联储降 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a typical differentiation pattern with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.18% to 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component remained flat at 13080.09 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25% to 3076.85 points, indicating overall stability in index performance [1] - The STAR 50 Index fell by 0.97%, highlighting ongoing adjustment pressures in the growth sector [1] - Total trading volume across both markets reached 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.2 billion yuan from the previous period, suggesting a cooling market sentiment as investors remain cautious amid uncertainties [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a 2.39% increase, followed by oil and petrochemicals and banks, which rose by 1.67% and 0.92% respectively, driven by stabilizing international commodity prices and increasing expectations for domestic growth policies [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector particularly benefited from global energy supply-demand restructuring and domestic refining profit recovery, making it a preferred choice for both risk aversion and returns [1] - Conversely, the real estate, media, and comprehensive sectors saw significant declines, with the comprehensive sector dropping by 3.08% and 14 stocks hitting the daily limit down, reflecting a rational correction in the market away from previously overheated themes [1] Thematic Indices - The aquatic products index surged by 9.52%, the gold selection index rose by 5.72%, and the nuclear wastewater index increased by 5.69%, indicating a strong performance of niche concepts driven by policy and real-world resonance [2] - The rise in aquatic and nuclear wastewater indices is attributed to heightened concerns over marine ecological safety due to tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, leading to a revaluation of related sectors [2] - The strength in gold reflects global risk aversion sentiments, influenced by fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks, positioning gold as a "safe haven" for funds [2] Future Outlook - The market is transitioning from being driven by emotions to being driven by logic, with resource, consumer, and military sectors showing resilience in the short term due to their risk-averse characteristics [3] - In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation pace of the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly focusing on three main lines: technological self-reliance, domestic demand expansion, and green transformation [3] - The AI sector is expected to evolve from speculative hype to practical applications, with real opportunities lying in companies that can translate technology into tangible commercial value [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US stock market continues to decline despite an improvement in the "small non - farm" data. The international economic and trade order is impacted by high tariffs and other barriers. [1] - The stock index market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. The technology sector is a long - term focus. The domestic glass and纯碱 markets are in a process of inventory digestion, and the crude oil market has a downward trend. [2][3] 3. Summary by Category A. Main News - **International News**: Trump claims to have selected the next Fed Chair candidate, and the short - listed candidates include current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. [6] - **Domestic News**: In October, the unemployment rates of the non - student urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 are 17.3%, 7.2%, and 3.8% respectively. [1][7] - **Industry News**: After Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Tianjin, Nanjing and Suzhou in Jiangsu Province will carry out real - estate trust property registration pilot projects. [8] B. Performance of Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: US indices decline. The domestic stock index market had a correction, with the media and computer sectors leading the rise, and coal and power equipment sectors leading the fall. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The technology sector is a long - term direction, and the market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. [2][11] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remain weak, with last week's inventory at 5962 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 54 million heavy cases. Soda ash futures slightly decline, with last week's inventory at 154.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. [2][17] - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rises 0.74%. An attack on a port in Russia causes it to suspend oil exports, equivalent to 2% of global supply. US refined oil demand is lower than last year, and the number of online drilling rigs shows a long - term downward trend. [3][13] C. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The long - term trend is positive, with a focus on the technology sector. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and external funds may flow in. [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rise slightly. The central bank's open - market operations and the economic situation at home and abroad affect the bond market. The market liquidity is expected to be reasonably abundant. [12] - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse, affected by supply and demand factors. [3][13] - **Methanol**: It rises slightly at night. The inventory is accumulating, and the short - term trend is weak. [14] - **Rubber**: It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, affected by supply and demand and weather conditions. [15] - **Polyolefins**: Futures decline. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by the overall market. It may continue to fluctuate at a low level. [16] - **Metals** - **Copper**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the long - term price may be supported by the supply - demand gap. [19] - **Zinc**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and the price may fluctuate within a range. [20] - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend may correct, depending on factors such as supply, steel de - stocking speed, and iron - water production. [21] - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: It adjusts weakly at night. The US soybean production and inventory data are mixed, and the domestic market is in a loose pattern. [22] - **Oils and Fats**: They run strongly at night. The palm oil market has different supply - demand situations, and the soybean oil is supported. The rapeseed oil may fluctuate. [23] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to decline, while the domestic market may fluctuate within a range. [24][25] - **Cotton**: The price is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. [26] - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price fluctuates and declines. The price support in November is uncertain, and the 02 contract has limited upward space. [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The 15th Five - Year Plan still focuses on technological self - reliance, and the technology sector is expected to be a long - term direction. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, residents may increase their allocation of equity assets, and with the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. Although funds are relatively cautious near the end of the year and the market style is more balanced compared to the third quarter, the current market trend is still expected to maintain a long - term and slow - rising bull market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4595.80, 4581.40, 4552.40, and 4513.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4569.60, 4555.00, 4523.00, and 4476.80. There were declines of - 20.00, - 18.80, - 23.00, and - 27.20, with corresponding percentage declines of - 0.44, - 0.41, - 0.51, and - 0.60. The trading volumes were 23964.00, 76476.00, 15119.00, and 6304.00, and the open interests were 33649.00, 158826.00, 67946.00, and 18267.00, with changes in open interest of - 3588.00, 4718.00, 3154.00, and 1683.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices for IH contracts were 3072.60, 3068.80, 3064.00, and 3059.60, and the previous day's closing prices were 3034.00, 3030.40, 3025.80, and 3017.00. The declines were - 36.60, - 37.40, - 37.40, and - 39.40, with percentage declines of - 1.19, - 1.22, - 1.22, and - 1.29. The trading volumes were 9482.00, 32072.00, 5074.00, and 1605.00, and the open interests were 11938.00, 62716.00, 17381.00, and 5086.00, with changes in open interest of - 824.00, 1112.00, 452.00, and 66.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices for IC contracts were 7215.80, 7143.40, 6960.40, and 6757.80, and the previous day's closing prices were 7152.80, 7079.80, 6897.00, and 6690.00. The declines were - 62.40, - 61.00, - 66.00, and - 69.60, with percentage declines of - 0.86, - 0.85, - 0.95, and - 1.03. The trading volumes were 26417.00, 83267.00, 17679.00, and 7077.00, and the open interests were 31223.00, 139697.00, 60086.00, and 23013.00, with changes in open interest of - 1529.00, 6266.00, 1185.00, and 2263.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices for IM contracts were 7566.00, 7478.40, 7246.00, and 7012.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 7468.40, 7372.00, 7140.00, and 6913.40. The declines were - 81.80, - 90.80, - 91.80, and - 88.80, with percentage declines of - 1.08, - 1.22, - 1.27, and - 1.27. The trading volumes were 34335.00, 125074.00, 23113.00, and 10057.00, and the open interests were 53957.00, 182376.00, 82892.00, and 37997.00, with changes in open interest of - 1680.00, - 1368.00, 2359.00, and 1746.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM (next month - current month) were - 14.60, - 3.60, - 73.00, and - 96.40 respectively, and the previous values were - 14.40, - 3.80, - 72.40, and - 87.60 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 4568.19, with a trading volume of 177.71 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4201.50 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4598.05, with a decline of - 0.65% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 3003.02, with a trading volume of 43.59 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1062.01 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3012.07, with a decline of - 0.30% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 7151.02, with a trading volume of 202.21 billion lots and a total trading amount of 3065.40 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7235.35, with a decline of - 1.17% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 7502.76, with a trading volume of 271.97 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4062.93 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7590.58, with a decline of - 1.16% [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries such as information technology, energy, raw materials, etc. showed various percentage declines. For example, the information technology industry had a decline of - 3.39% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300**: The previous value of the basis was - 96.54 [1] - **SSE 50**: No relevant basis value details provided - **CSI 500**: The previous values of the basis for different contracts were 1.78, - 71.22, - 254.02, - 461.02, and the previous two - day values were - 19.55, - 91.95, - 274.95, - 477.55 [1] - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The previous values of the basis for IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against CSI 1000 were - 34.36, - 130.76, - 362.76, - 589.36, and the previous two - day values were - 24.58, - 112.18, - 344.58, - 578.58 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3939.81, 13080.49, 7957.60, and 3069.22 respectively, and the previous two - day value of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3105.20, with a decline of - 1.16% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25930.03, 50323.91, 6617.32, and 23153.92 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 26384.28, 50376.53, 6672.41, and 23590.52. The percentage declines were - 1.72%, - 0.10%, - 0.83%, and - 1.85% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The Chinese Foreign Ministry's Asia Department Director was dissatisfied with the results of the consultation with Japan. China maintains its stance on safeguarding core interests and international justice, and demands that Japan correct its wrong remarks [2] - The US has modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting some Chinese enterprises. China's Ministry of Commerce will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [2] - Premier Li Qiang called for free trade and less trade barriers at the SCO meeting, and proposed strengthening cooperation in areas such as new energy [2] - Hainan Free Trade Port is ready for the full - island customs - closure operation, and more financial reform and opening - up measures will be piloted in Hainan [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Shanghai will accelerate the construction of "good houses", promote the renovation of urban villages, and expand the supply of affordable housing [2] - Jiangsu will conduct a pilot program for real - estate trust property registration in Nanjing and Suzhou [2] - Chongqing plans to reach an AI terminal industry scale of over 300 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - China will standardize the management of satellite navigation and positioning reference stations from January 1st next year [2]

首席点评： "小非农"有所改善，美股持续回落 美国 10 月 18 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 23.2 万，政府关门致官方报告持续缺席以来首次公布。"小非农" ADP 周度就 业数据：截至 11 月 1 日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少 2500 人。国务院总理李强在上合组织会议上表示， 高额关税等经贸壁垒增多使国际经贸秩序受到严重冲击，呼吁各方拥抱自由贸易、减少壁垒。他强调上合组织应强化安全 合作机制，推动科技交流，反对人为阻碍科技发展，并倡议建立新能源等合作机制，扩大中国－上合组织在金融、科技等 领域的协作平台。国家统计局公布数据， 10 月份，不包含在校生，全国城镇 16-24 岁劳动力失业率为 17.3% ， 25-29 岁劳 动力失业率为 7.2% ， 30-59 岁劳动力失业率为 3.8% 。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃纯碱 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指回调为主，传媒和计算机板块领涨，煤炭和电力设备板块领跌，市场成交 额 1.95 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 17 日融资余额增加 76.21 亿元至 24823.20 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方 ...

有专家在接受记者采访时指出，在本轮A股市场的上涨行情中，科技板块是主要驱动因素之一，背后的 科技自立以及AI浪潮是两条重要的逻辑主线。 人民财讯11月19日电，近期，年内持续强势的科技股涨势出现一定减缓迹象，而红利股表现则开始相对 强势。与此同时，作为年内科技股行情驱动因素之一的人工智能(AI)浪潮，市场对其是否存在较大泡沫 的分歧也在逐渐加大。A股市场的风格转换是否又到了新的"十字路口"？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of technology stocks in the A-share market has shown signs of slowing down, while dividend stocks have started to perform relatively strongly, indicating a potential shift in market style [1][2] Group 1: Technology and Dividend Style Transition - There is a noticeable transition in the A-share market between technology and dividend styles, with technology stocks recently underperforming compared to dividend stocks [2] - From October 2023, the CSI Technology Index has declined by 4.47%, lagging behind the CSI Dividend Index by over 7 percentage points, which has increased by 3.05% during the same period [2] - In November 2023, the CSI Technology Index further dropped by 6.25%, again underperforming the CSI Dividend Index by nearly 7 percentage points, which only rose by 0.57% [2] Group 2: Historical Context of Style Shifts - Historically, the A-share market has experienced multiple transitions between technology and dividend stocks, with one category often dominating the other [4] - From 2015 to 2024, there have been several instances where technology stocks outperformed dividend stocks, such as in 2015 when the CSI Technology Index surged by 86.45% [5] - Conversely, in 2022, technology stocks saw a significant decline of 32%, while dividend stocks only fell by 5.45%, showcasing the defensive nature of dividend stocks during market downturns [5] Group 3: Current Market Dynamics - The current A-share market structure is described as "dumbbell-shaped," with one end representing low-valuation, high-dividend sectors like banks, and the other end representing high-growth technology stocks [6] - The recent rise in Agricultural Bank's stock price to a historical high further supports the strengthening of this "dumbbell" structure [7] - Despite the recent pullback in technology stocks due to profit-taking, this does not signify the end of a bull market, as both technology and dividend stocks are expected to coexist and drive the market upward [7]

首席点评： 坚持扩大内需，着力推动市场更具韧性 中国财政部：前10月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长0.8%，支出增长2%，交易印花税收入增长88.1%。1-10月，全国 一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。中德高级别财金对话在京举行，达成多项成果共识，结束贸易紧张局 势。中德高级别财金对话中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与德方牵头人、德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔17日在北 京共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。美联储理事沃勒支持12月降息，副主席杰斐逊强调慎缓慢推进政策。下任美 联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒表示，支持在美联储12月会议上再次降息，原因是他对劳动力市场以及招 聘大幅放缓感到担忧。 重点品种：股指、玻璃纯碱、蛋白粕 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指震荡回落，医药生物和银行板块领跌，计算机和国防军工板块领涨，市场 成交额1.93万亿元。资金方面，11月14日融资余额减少134.56亿元至24746.99亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美 联储降息、人民币升值，外部资金也 ...

报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：坚持扩大内需，着力推动市场更具韧性 中国公布 10 月经济数据，规模以上工业增加值同比增 4.9%、社会消费品零售同 比增 2.9%、1-10 月固定资产投资同比降 1.7%、房地产开发投资同比降 14.7%； 各线城市房价格环比同比下降，一线二手房价格环比降幅收窄至 0.9%，同比跌 幅扩大。李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进 消费政策措施。财政部：有力有效实施积极的财政政策，坚持扩大内需，支持建 设强大国内市场。吴清：抓紧研究谋划"十五五"时期资本市场战略任务和重大 举措，着力推动市场更具韧性、更加稳健，制度更加包容、更具吸引力。 重点品种：股指、原油、蛋白粕 股指：美国三大指数涨跌不一，上一交易日股指尾盘跳水，综合和房地产行业领 涨，电子通信行业领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 13 日融资 余额增加 40.69 亿元至 24881.55 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科 技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大 权益类资产配置，同时，随着美联 ...