贾舒畅认为，若将黄金置于全球资产组合中考量，其涨幅仍处于相对温和水平。与权益市场对比， 黄金ETF总持仓加期货净多仓占比全球股票市值不足1.5%；以MSCI全球股票指数为参照，黄金的相对 价值并未出现显著偏离；在全球配置占比方面，目前黄金ETF、期货及现货合计在全球股票+债券总资 产中的占比依然较低。 王立新呼吁，投资者应以长期战略配置心态参与，不要将黄金作为短期投机工具，防止在非理性状 态下超越自身风险承受能力进行交易。 根据世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》，全球黄金投资需求增至2175吨的 里程碑水平，成为推动2025年黄金总需求刷新历史纪录的主要驱动力。全球范围内，寻求避险和资产多 元化的投资者大量涌入黄金ETF，全年净增801吨。同时，实物黄金投资需求也保持强劲，全球金条和 金币需求达到1374吨，按价值计为1540亿美元。其中，中国和印度市场表现突出，分别实现同比增长 28%和17%，合计占该板块需求的50%以上。 2025年，全球央行购金需求依然保持高位，官方机构增持863吨黄金。尽管全年需求未能突破此前 连续三年超年均1000吨的水平，但央行购金仍是2025年全球黄金需求 ...

1月28日，泰国央行行长维塔伊.拉塔纳科恩(Vitai Ratanakorn)公开宣布，将线上黄金交易每日上限设定为5000万泰 铢，同时全面禁止黄金交易做空操作。这是继1月21日首次公布宽泛交易限额后，泰国央行10日内第二次限制黄金 交易。 泰国央行此次政策升级针对性极强。维塔伊.拉塔纳科恩在声明中直言，黄金交易是近期泰铢走强的核心推手，新 规则的核心目标是缓解本币升值压力，让汇率回归至与经济基本面匹配的合理区间。 数据显示，泰铢兑美元汇率已升至2021年3月以来的新高，2025年全年累计升值9%，2026年以来再度升值约1%。 泰铢兑美元汇率持续走强严重削弱了泰国出口商品的价格竞争力，同时推高了境外游客的出行成本。根据泰国旅 游局数据，今年迄今为止访泰外国游客人数同比减少9%，汇率因素成为行业复苏的重要阻力。 事实上，1月27日，泰国财政部长就曾提到，为缓解私营部门对于泰铢升值幅度过高的担忧，泰国央行已发布一份 通知，要求平台报告黄金交易活动，并正在准备进一步的措施以收紧对黄金交易的监管。 作为全球第七大、东盟第一大黄金交易市场，泰国黄金日交易额超过5万亿泰铢，其中线上交易占比高达65%，且 普遍以泰铢报 ...

昨天说了，国内股市近期别碰，不知道还有多少头铁，今天看看盘面，还是熟悉的指数涨0.5%即打压，跌回原点又会反弹。有人说这样能不能做套利，我 觉得可以，第一个是期指，不过日内单手续费高，你可以换成T+1对锁，如果不懂这个就别参与，毕竟带杠杆万一超级主力有一天不上班，这法则就无法实 施，还容易亏钱，毕竟砸盘主力是人为压制，并不是市场的本意，这种你开空单亏了还下个不能怪谁。第二个是ETF做T+0，低买高卖挺容易的，锚定0.5% 的上下区间就行，不过同样是在一堆垃圾里挑吃的，我想问为啥非得盯A股？商品不香吗？海外不香吗？比如黄金白银大宗，每一个都在涨价，这些又是市 场自由博弈，没有超级主力砸盘，另外，海外半导体高景气延续，天天都是涨价，国内不给炒你不会去海外？这个市场已经烂透了，我觉得没啥好留恋的， 谈价值没价值，谈炒作禁炒作，谈耐心资金就是每天乖乖被锤天天市值新低，哪有这样天天对着各类投资者整的市场。所以现在黄金、白银上涨很快，也是 超级主力的功劳，不买黄金白银，难道去买医药白酒吗？ 中线策略分析：【整体情况】 今天统计的买盘力量是3000+，明显感觉盘面越来越强，而且超级主力越砸影响越少，主要原因从数据上就看到了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, reaching over $5,000 per ounce, and emphasizes the growing popularity of the Cathay Fund's gold ETF (518800) as a preferred investment vehicle for both institutional and individual investors during this "gold super cycle" [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors Supporting Gold Prices - The surge in gold prices in 2026 is attributed to three interrelated factors: the shift towards "de-dollarization," where multiple central banks are increasing their gold reserves, indicating a fundamental change in gold's pricing power [2] - The decline in nominal interest rates and the ongoing battle with inflation expectations have made gold, a non-yielding asset, more attractive as the opportunity cost of holding it approaches zero [2] - The normalization of geopolitical risks has made gold an essential "safe haven" asset, negatively correlated with equity assets, thus serving as a stabilizing force in investment portfolios [2] Group 2: Advantages of Gold ETF (518800) - The gold ETF (518800) boasts significant advantages, including a scale exceeding 37 billion yuan and high liquidity, allowing for quick transactions without impacting net asset value, even for large institutional trades [3] - Each ETF share is backed by approximately 0.01 grams of physical gold, eliminating high premiums, custody fees, and discount costs associated with physical gold bars [3] - The ETF offers a competitive fee structure with a management fee of 0.5% and a custody fee of 0.1%, making it cost-effective for long-term investors in a fee-sensitive market [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Gold ETF in 2026 - Suggested strategies for navigating the current high price environment include grid trading to capitalize on price volatility above $5,000, utilizing the ETF's liquidity for intraday arbitrage [4] - A recommended asset allocation strategy involves incorporating 10%-15% of the gold ETF into traditional portfolios to effectively hedge against volatility in U.S. and A-shares, thereby optimizing the Sharpe ratio [4] - Long-term investors are advised to maintain a 50% core position in the ETF and consider dynamic reallocation when gold prices retreat to support levels, such as around $4,800, to average down costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to high-level opening of China's bond market while ensuring financial security amidst a complex international environment [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Security - The bond market in China has become the second largest globally, with increasing influence and a shift towards deeper levels of openness [2]. - The safety of the bond market is critical, as it serves as a foundational market for the financial system and is essential for economic and national security [2][4]. - Risks from international market fluctuations and policy changes can impact the development and protection of stakeholders in China's bond market [3]. Group 2: Economic Security and Financial Stability - The bond market is a vital channel for direct financing to the real economy and plays a key role in maintaining the stability of the financial system [4]. - Enhancing the robustness of the domestic bond market is crucial to prevent the transmission of domestic and international risks that could disrupt the macroeconomy [4]. - The stability of the bond market is closely linked to the stability of funding sources from various investors, which can be affected by international capital movements [4]. Group 3: National Security and Financial Sovereignty - Financial strength is pivotal for national economic support and plays a significant role in international power dynamics [5]. - The current instability in the international financial system necessitates a focus on maintaining financial sovereignty while engaging in global bond market governance [5]. - Risks from financial sanctions and geopolitical tensions can threaten the safety of overseas bond assets and cross-border infrastructure operations [5][13]. Group 4: Cross-Border Risk Transmission - The rapid development of China's offshore bond market is crucial for attracting foreign investment in RMB assets [7]. - Abnormal capital flows can lead to significant fluctuations in bond prices and interest rates, complicating monetary policy management [7][8]. - The behavior of foreign investors is influenced by geopolitical factors, which can lead to sudden capital outflows or inflows [8]. Group 5: Pricing and Market Dynamics - The bond yield curve serves as a key pricing anchor for financial assets, impacting the pricing power of domestic assets in the international market [9][10]. - The transition from LIBOR to SOFR as a benchmark interest rate highlights the importance of maintaining control over domestic pricing mechanisms [10]. - The dual pricing phenomenon between onshore and offshore markets can lead to increased volatility and speculative behavior, affecting the stability of the RMB [11][12]. Group 6: Legal and Regulatory Framework - The current legal framework for China's bond market needs improvement to meet the demands of high-level openness and enhance international competitiveness [17][20]. - There is a need for better coordination among various laws governing the bond market to strengthen investor protection and dispute resolution mechanisms [17]. - Enhancing the legal infrastructure will support the development of a unified bond market and facilitate cross-border investment [20]. Group 7: Recommendations for Risk Prevention - Implementing transparent account arrangements can improve the monitoring of cross-border bond activities and enhance regulatory oversight [18]. - Developing a self-controlled offshore bond market in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone can facilitate better integration between onshore and offshore markets [18]. - Strengthening the international influence of the RMB bond yield curve is essential for maintaining pricing autonomy and financial sovereignty [19].

1月26日，国际现货黄金价格在亚洲交易时段内快速攀升，接连突破5000美元和5100美元两大关键节点，盘中最高触及5111.11美元/盎司。这一现象不仅反映 了全球经济格局的深刻变化，也揭示了货币政策调整、地缘政治冲突以及全球储备资产结构演变等多重因素的叠加影响。 黄金 X 5097.42 >> 5013.47 总手 2.30% 114.51 结算 4982.91 昨结 分时 五日 t 目K 5111.11 4982.91 那 主要经济体的货币政策预期也对黄金价格产生重要影响。市场普遍预期美联储将延续降息周期，这一预期降低了持有黄金的机会成本，提高了其作为非生息 资产的吸引力。高盛已将2026年底的黄金价格预测上调至5400美元，理由包括私人投资者与各国央行的需求持续增长。 从技术面来看，金价突破5000美元后继续上行至5100美元以上，显示出市场的强劲动能。然而，东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪提醒，由于美联储即将 召开1月议息会议，若降息节奏不及预期，金价可能在4800至5200美元区间内波动，甚至引发技术性回调。 面对黄金价格处于历史高位的情况，投资者应基于资产配置的原则而非短期价格预测来做出决策。瑞银 ...

广州期货 贵金属价格或偏强运行 国信期货 金银或延续震荡偏强格局 消息面上，特朗普宣称将取得格陵兰岛美军基地"主权"，并考虑对古巴石油实施海上封锁，同时美国对 伊朗相关实体实施新一轮制裁并在印度洋部署航母，系统性风险急剧攀升。与此同时，市场对美元信用 的担忧持续发酵：美国财政部被曝已初步准备干预汇市，叠加IMF报告显示美元全球储备占比跌破 60%，这些信号共同动摇了美元资产的底层信用，强化了黄金的货币替代逻辑。此外，美国政府停摆风 险再起，也为市场增添了不确定性。整体而言，金银或延续震荡偏强格局。COMEX黄金价格在突破整 数关口后，技术上下一目标位可上看5100美元/盎司附近。COMEX白银价格在资金推动下仍保持强势， 有望挑战110美元/盎司附近。操作上，建议轻仓多单持有。 广州期货：贵金属价格或偏强运行 1月26日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至28226.00元。截止发稿，沪银主力合 约报27306.00元，涨幅13.19%。 美国明尼阿波利斯市1月24日再次发生移民执法枪击事件，参议院少数党领袖Chuck Schumer表示鉴于该 事件的严重性，如果拨款法案中包含对美国国土安全部的 ...

去年九月，由特朗普任命的美联储监管副主席米歇尔.鲍曼召集了12个地区联储的最高层官员，严词斥 责了他们在执行银行审查时的不力表现，此举被视为她对美联储监管体系打响的第一枪。作为堪萨斯州 出身的前银行家，鲍曼在去年成功击败包括主席鲍威尔在内的竞争者升任副主席，其核心任务便是为饱 受争议的银行业监管松绑，削减2008年金融危机后被视为过度的繁文缛节。 鲍曼在公开场合批评美联储审查员过分纠缠于"程序和文件缺陷"，而忽视了核心风险，她主张建立一个 更透明、高效且对银行公平的审查机制。为了实现这一目标，她已大幅裁员并清洗了监管部门的高层领 导团队，意图彻底改变该部门的运作文化。 摘要今日周一(1月26日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1138.50元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1136.14元/ 克，涨幅1.84%，最高触及1138.50元/克，最低下探1115.66元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周一(1月26日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1138.50元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1136.14元/克， 涨幅1.84%，最高触及1138.50元/克，最低下探1115.66元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant regulatory overhaul in the U.S. banking sector under Trump's administration, aiming to reduce restrictions on banks to foster economic growth and market competitiveness. This "deregulation" movement focuses on loosening capital and operational constraints on banks, which has immediate positive effects on investor returns and bank activities [1][2]. Group 1: Deregulation Measures - The Federal Reserve has reduced the size of its bank regulatory department by approximately 30% and is now focusing only on "significant" risks affecting banks' solvency, rather than administrative details [1]. - The Federal Reserve has approved a comprehensive reform of the annual stress testing process, allowing banks to know the testing standards in advance and provide feedback, which critics argue undermines the rigor of the tests [1][3]. - Major Wall Street firms have responded to the expectations of deregulation by increasing dividends and announcing significant stock buyback plans, with JPMorgan Chase revealing its largest stock repurchase program in history [1]. Group 2: Capital Requirements Changes - New risk capital measurement rules are being negotiated, which will determine required capital based on the risk level of bank assets, significantly reducing capital requirements for large U.S. banks compared to previous proposals [4]. - The regulatory body has finalized plans to relax the supplementary leverage ratio, which previously constrained banks' ability to purchase U.S. Treasury securities and act as market intermediaries [4]. Group 3: Inclusion of Cryptocurrency - Regulatory agencies are actively working to integrate cryptocurrency into the traditional banking system, with the FDIC drafting guidelines on how deposit insurance applies to blockchain digital deposits [5]. - The OCC has approved requests from five cryptocurrency companies to obtain U.S. banking licenses, marking a significant shift from previous regulatory stances that viewed the industry with skepticism [5]. Group 4: Concerns Over Financial Stability - Despite the positive reception from the banking industry regarding deregulation, there are concerns from academics and former officials about potential systemic risks, with warnings that reduced oversight could allow banks to transfer risks to the public [7]. - Critics argue that the current policies represent a reckless combination of deregulation, which could lead to a catastrophic financial crisis, particularly highlighting the bubbles forming in cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence sectors as potential triggers [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Japanese government bond yields signals a potential collapse of a long-standing liquidity pillar in global financial markets, posing significant valuation challenges for cryptocurrencies and global risk assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds spiked over 30 basis points to a historic high of 3.91%, leading to severe turbulence in global risk markets [3]. - Following this yield increase, the Nikkei index fell by 2.5%, and Bitcoin's price dropped below $91,000 before the U.S. stock market opened [3]. - The capital outflow is affecting not only traditional stock markets but also the highly liquidity-sensitive digital asset market [3]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The rise in Japanese yields is causing global capital, which has long relied on "yen carry trades," to flow back to Japan, resulting in a halt in international market liquidity [3]. - This situation represents a structural reshaping of financing costs, as the world's cheapest source of funds begins to dry up, leading to a necessary reevaluation of high-risk asset premiums [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There are widespread concerns that the Bank of Japan is trapped in a policy dilemma, with the trend of global liquidity contraction being irreversible [4]. - Investors are warned to be vigilant about the potential concentration of systemic risks, as yields are expected to continue rising until a collapse occurs [4]. - RYOEX advises users to closely monitor the correlation between the yen exchange rate and bond market yields to find new asset allocation balances in a volatile macro environment [4].