Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now predicting three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, November, and December 2024, along with additional cuts in 2026, which is more aggressive than market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Aggressive Shift - Inflation is cooling faster than expected, with key indicators like CPI and PCE showing a quicker decline, particularly in stubborn areas like housing inflation, providing data support for earlier and faster rate cuts [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of significant cooling, with non-farm employment, job openings, and unemployment rate data indicating a return to a balanced state, alleviating concerns about a wage-inflation spiral [3]. - There are increasing risks of economic recession, as leading economic indicators suggest a weakening momentum in the U.S. economy, prompting the Fed to adopt a preemptive rate cut strategy to avoid a hard landing [4]. Group 2: Comparison with Market Expectations - Morgan Stanley's new prediction of three rate cuts in 2024 contrasts with the previous market expectation of only two cuts [5]. - For 2025, while the market anticipated 2-3 cuts, Morgan Stanley forecasts four cuts, indicating a faster pace [5]. - Morgan Stanley's forecast includes three rate cuts in 2026, a prediction rarely made by other institutions, highlighting a more aggressive approach compared to the market's cautious stance [5]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - If Morgan Stanley's predictions materialize, global asset prices could undergo significant revaluation, with gold being the biggest beneficiary, potentially reaching historical highs due to lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar [6][7]. - U.S. stocks may experience a liquidity-driven rally, although concerns about economic recession could limit gains, particularly affecting bank stocks due to narrowing interest margins [8][9]. - The dollar's dominance may face challenges, with a faster rate cut path leading to a narrowing of interest rate differentials, potentially resulting in a long-term decline in the dollar index and a rebound for non-U.S. currencies [10]. - Cryptocurrencies may see a resurgence in demand as global liquidity expectations improve, benefiting from both their status as risk assets and as "digital gold" [11][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are advised to accumulate "rate cut beneficiary" assets, such as gold, which should constitute 5%-10% of their portfolio [13]. - Investors should focus on high-quality tech and growth stocks with strong cash flows for long-term holding [14]. - Short-term traders should monitor economic data closely, as stronger-than-expected data could challenge Morgan Stanley's aggressive predictions, necessitating risk management strategies [15]. - All investors should maintain flexibility and avoid heavy bets based on a single prediction, ensuring a balanced and adaptable asset allocation [16].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is trading at an all-time high despite recent economic data indicating a slowdown in the labor market [1] - The U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with a downward revision of 27,000 jobs in the prior two months [2] - Job growth has averaged less than 30,000 over the last four months, well below the healthy threshold of 100,000 job gains per month [2] Economic Implications - The weak jobs report is a major indicator of economic health and influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] - A weak jobs report increases the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting on September 16-17, as the central bank aims to stimulate growth in a weak economy [4][5] - Lower interest rates are generally favorable for stocks, as they facilitate borrowing and investment, and make stocks more attractive compared to bonds [5] Market Reactions - Initial positive reactions in stock futures to the jobs report were followed by declines in regular trading, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% [6] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index showed some resilience, trading higher for part of the session, indicating sensitivity to interest rate changes [6] - The weak employment report raises concerns about an increased risk of recession [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021, raising concerns about a potential worsening labor market [1][2][3] - In August, non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% [2][3] - Job growth has been concentrated in healthcare, leisure, and hospitality, while sectors such as information, finance, manufacturing, federal government, and business services saw substantial job losses [2][3] Group 2 - The average job growth over the past three months is only 29,000, marking the weakest employment growth phase since the pandemic began, with job additions consistently below 100,000 for four consecutive months [3] - The disappointing employment report has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut anticipated [4] - The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 3.5%, and the ten-year note yield dropped to 4.1%, both reaching five-month lows, indicating a market reaction to the employment data [3]

Group 1 - French business leaders warn that current political instability may lead to severe economic consequences [1] - The Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, is seeking a confidence vote from the National Assembly on September 8 regarding the government's budget plan for 2026 [1][3] - The opposition parties have announced plans to reject the government's fiscal deficit strategy, indicating a challenging political environment [3] Group 2 - Patrick Martin, head of the French Business Movement, highlighted a real risk of recession, citing dwindling orders and increased tariff pressures as significant threats to economic growth [4] - The yield on France's benchmark 10-year government bonds has surpassed 3.5%, nearing the highest level since the Eurozone debt crisis [4] - Consumer spending is currently the only support for economic growth in France, with increasing uncertainty negatively impacting consumer confidence [4] Group 3 - The ongoing political turmoil has disrupted financial markets, with the spread between French and German 10-year government bonds approaching the highest level since 2012 [6] - France's fiscal deficit is projected to be 5.8% of GDP in 2024, while public debt is expected to reach 114% of GDP by the end of Q1 2025 [6]

Group 1 - French business leaders warn that current political instability may lead to severe economic consequences, highlighting a lack of consensus on public finance reform [1][2] - The French government is facing a trust vote on September 8, with opposition parties planning to reject the government's deficit plan, indicating a challenging political landscape [2][3] - Concerns about a potential recession are rising, with warnings from business leaders about dwindling orders and increasing tariff pressures, which could threaten economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The yield on France's benchmark 10-year government bonds has surpassed 3.5%, nearing the highest level since the Eurozone debt crisis, reflecting market unease [2][3] - The French economy is heavily reliant on consumer spending, and increased uncertainty is seen as detrimental to consumer confidence, raising the risk of significant economic shocks [2][3] - France's fiscal deficit is projected to be 5.8% of GDP in 2024, with public debt reaching 114% of GDP by the end of Q1 2025, indicating a concerning fiscal outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, reinforced by Powell's statements, is likely to drive gold prices higher in the future [1][5]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened at $3,336.80 per ounce at the beginning of the week, experienced a low of $3,311.56 on Wednesday, and closed at $3,371.62, marking a weekly increase of $34.82 or 1.04% [3][5]. - The weekly trading range for gold was $66.8, indicating volatility in the market [3]. Influencing Factors - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium have strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September, despite acknowledging risks in the job market and persistent inflation pressures [5][6]. - The potential for increased tariffs on furniture products by Trump and ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine peace talks are also seen as supportive factors for gold prices [1][5]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that gold is expected to maintain a bullish trend over the next year, with potential to reach historical highs around $4,200 per ounce, despite current fluctuations within the $3,200 to $3,440 range [6][8]. - The likelihood of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year and a more dovish monetary policy in the coming year are anticipated to further support gold prices [5][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has recently tested the 100-day moving average support and is expected to continue its upward trajectory following this adjustment [10]. - Key support levels to watch include $3,270 and $3,220, while resistance levels are identified at $3,386 and $3,400 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was weak due to China's July economic data falling short of expectations, the US announcing full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data being disappointing. However, the market sentiment improved with optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries. Currently, the spot demand for aluminum is insufficient, and the subsequent trend of Shanghai aluminum may be volatile and weak. The speculation in the aluminum market has subsided, and this round of speculation may end [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Background and Sentiment - China's July economic data was below expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was poor with previous two - month data significantly revised down. This led to an increased risk of US economic recession and rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The dollar tumbled and the RMB soared at night, causing the market to weaken. Optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day [1]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,525, and the spot price was 20,480, with a spot discount of - 45 points. The spot turned to a discount of - 40 yuan this week, and spot trading was poor. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased this week, while the social inventory of alumina decreased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and spot consumption was weak. The LME spot inventory increased this week, and the LME spot turned to a discount of - 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices rose significantly to 8.06, indicating that the external market performed weaker than the domestic market [1]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil and LME aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai aluminum opened lower and closed higher, rising slightly and closing at 20,525. The technical form improved slightly. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Data Monitoring - From July 29 to August 4, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated, the spot premium/discount changed from 0 to - 40, the LME situation also changed, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract increased from 7.83 to 8.06 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - Overnight, the annual rate of the US core PCE in June rebounded to 2.8%, slightly higher than expected, and the monthly rate of 0.3% met expectations. The weekly initial jobless claims remained at a low level of 218,000. With recent geopolitical risks stable, tariff negotiations becoming clearer, and the risk of economic recession decreasing, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the volatile adjustment may continue. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts will depend on data, and attention is focused on the US non - farm payrolls guidance tonight [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Tariff News - US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday night to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners, raising the tariff level to the highest in more than a century. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7 instead of August 1, providing a window for countries to negotiate for lower tariffs. The White House hopes to reach more agreements with countries before August 7 [2] - The US Treasury Secretary is frustrated with India. The tariff rate for Malaysian goods will be announced soon. India hopes to sign free - trade agreements with several countries. The US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, and Mexico will continue to pay 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs. Trump excluded 45% of Brazil's exports to the US from the 50% tariff [2] Gold Demand Report - In the second quarter of 2025, the total global gold demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,249 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In value terms, the total global gold demand soared by 45% year - on - year to a new record of $132 billion. Gold ETF investment was the key driver, with an inflow of 170 tons in Q2, compared with a small outflow in Q2 2024. The total global gold ETF demand in the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020 [2] - The total investment in gold bars and coins in Q2 also increased by 11% year - on - year to 307 tons. Chinese investors led the world, with a 44% year - on - year surge in demand for gold bars and coins to 115 tons. Indian investors continued to increase their holdings, with a demand of 46 tons in Q2. The Western market showed a differentiated trend: the net investment demand in Europe more than doubled to 28 tons in Q2, while the demand for gold bars and coins in the US halved to 9 tons [2] - Global central banks continued to buy gold, but the pace slowed down. They added 166 tons in Q2 2025. Despite the slowdown in the purchase growth rate, global central bank gold purchases remained at a significantly high level. 95% of surveyed central banks expect global central bank gold reserves to further increase in the next 12 months [2] - Gold jewelry demand continued to shrink, with consumption volume decreasing by 14% year - on - year in Q2, approaching the low level during the 2020 pandemic. The demand for gold jewelry in China and India decreased by 20% and 17% year - on - year respectively. However, in value terms, global gold jewelry consumption still rose to $3.6 billion in Q2 [2]

Group 1 - The current trade policy has become more predictable, allowing the market to significantly lower the pricing of recession risks, which has eased investment sentiment [1][2] - As of Thursday, the global investment-grade corporate bond yield spread has narrowed to 79 basis points, the lowest level since July 2007, just before the global financial crisis [2][4] - Despite the improved market sentiment and the S&P 500 index reaching a historical high, the Federal Reserve has not signaled an imminent rate cut, indicating that more data is needed to ensure inflation risks do not persist [3][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that market participants should not overlook potential risk factors due to current optimism, including the possibility of economic growth falling below expectations and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5] - The narrowing of credit spreads and the overall market optimism may mask underlying risks, prompting Goldman Sachs to advise clients to maintain certain hedging positions in their portfolios [3][4] - Although negative news related to tariffs is no longer the main driver of risk sentiment, the impact of tariffs on different segments of the supply chain will lead to performance differentiation among companies, becoming a new source of market risk [5]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs credit strategists urge clients to hedge risks as global corporate bond yield spreads have tightened to the lowest level since 2007 [1] - Recent trade agreements between the US and several trading partners provide clarity on tariff issues, leading investors to overlook short-term economic growth weakness as long as recession risks are controlled [1] - Bloomberg index indicates that global investment-grade bond yield spreads narrowed to 79 basis points, the lowest level since July 2007, prior to the global financial crisis [1] Economic Context - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high this week, reflecting investor confidence despite tightening credit spreads [1] - Federal Reserve policymakers have not indicated an imminent rate cut, suggesting that more data is needed to ensure inflation risks do not persist [1]