Group 1 - The A-share market has entered a bull market since September 24, 2024, with major indices significantly rising, such as the North Exchange 50 Index increasing by 158.01% [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market surged from less than 500 billion to over 2 trillion [1] - 13 mutual funds have seen a net value growth rate exceeding 200%, while 774 funds have surpassed 100% [1][2] Group 2 - The performance of equity mixed funds has rebounded, with the index rising by 57.88% since September 24, 2024 [2] - Notable funds include Debon Xinxing Value Mixed Fund, which achieved a net value growth of 280.31% [2] - The strong performance is attributed to the robust market rally and the significant returns from technology stocks [2] Group 3 - Key factors driving the market's rise include ongoing stock market reforms, improved policy expectations, and breakthroughs in various sectors such as innovative drugs and robotics [3] - The market's risk appetite has notably increased, with more retail investors entering the market since June [6][7] Group 4 - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in valuation, liquidity, and investor structure, with the overall valuation rising from 15.63 times to 22.16 times [6] - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, supported by continuous policy backing and structural upgrades in industries [7] Group 5 - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors like AI, innovative drugs, and electric new energy, driven by supportive industrial policies and technological breakthroughs [8][9] - The focus on sectors such as AI computing, electric new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals is expected to yield significant returns [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The "9·24" market rally has marked a significant turning point for the A-share market, leading to a bull market characterized by substantial index gains and a resurgence in public fund performance [2][12]. Market Performance - Since the "9·24" rally began, the North Securities 50 Index has risen by 158.01%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index and the ChiNext Index have both more than doubled, increasing by 118.85% and 103.50% respectively [2]. - The average daily trading volume in the market surged from less than 500 billion to over 2 trillion [2][12]. Fund Performance - A total of 13 funds have achieved a net value growth rate exceeding 200%, and 774 funds have surpassed 100% growth since the rally began [2][5]. - The Wind data indicates that the mixed equity fund index has increased by 57.88% since September 24, 2024 [4]. Key Fund Performers - The top-performing fund, Debon Xinxing Value Mixed Fund, recorded a net value growth of 280.31% [5][6]. - Other notable funds with over 200% growth include China Europe Digital Economy Fund (266.27%) and CITIC Construction Investment North Exchange Selection Fund (263.38%) [5][6]. Market Drivers - The market's significant rise is attributed to three main factors: ongoing stock market reforms, improved policy expectations, and milestone events in various sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and robotics [7]. - The core drivers of the A-share market's rise include supportive policies, rapid breakthroughs in technology industries, and a notable increase in market risk appetite [7][12]. Structural Market Changes - The A-share market has seen substantial improvements in valuation, liquidity, and investor structure since the "9·24" rally [12]. - The average valuation (PE-TTM) of the Wind All A Index has risen from 15.63 times to 22.16 times [12]. Future Outlook - The "9·24" rally is viewed as a critical turning point, with expectations for a sustained "slow bull" market trend supported by continuous policy support and structural upgrades in industries [13]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric power, driven by industry policy support and technological breakthroughs [15][16].

考虑到大部分投资者都很难在主题轮动上进行精准交易、获取每个热点主题的大部分收益，谭弘翔认 为，长期持有宽基指数，不仅有望帮助投资者在每一次轮动行情中不完全踏空，并且也有利于稳定投资 者的投资心态，确保"拿得住"，反而可能避免交易损耗、争取更持久的收益。 中证报中证网讯(记者王鹤静)9月23日晚，华泰柏瑞基金指数投资部副总监、基金经理谭弘翔在做客中 国证券报"金牛ETF来了"直播间时表示，如果是个别板块出现结构性行情，宽基指数的表现可能确实不 如特定的行业主题指数；但如果拉长周期来看，当市场呈现出主题快速轮动的结构性行情特征时，宽基 指数就能够较好地体现出分散布局的优势。 ...

Group 1 - The A500 index components show mixed performance, with Changchuan Technology leading at 20.00% increase, followed by Terui De at 12.77% and Lianang Micro at 10.00%, while Guangxun Technology leads the decline [1] - The A500 ETF fund has an active trading environment, with a turnover rate of 23.5% and a transaction volume of 3.72 billion yuan, ranking first in average daily trading volume among comparable funds at 5.14 billion yuan over the past month [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index account for 19.83% of the index, including Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An, and others [2] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities indicates that the market has strong mid-term upward momentum, with a positive outlook for capital market liquidity and a potential shift of household deposits to equity markets [2] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to further enhance market risk appetite, despite short-term volatility [2] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT, public utilities, and non-ferrous metals [2]

Market Review - A-shares major indices rose last week, with trading volume slightly decreasing amidst divergence [1] - Among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, electronics, real estate, and agriculture showed relatively strong performance [1] Macro Data Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 0.0%; month-on-month remained at 0.0% [3] - PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, improving from a previous decline of 3.6%; month-on-month remained at 0.0% [3] - The decline in CPI was attributed to a high base from the previous year and low food price increases [3] - PPI showed signs of improvement due to the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, with significant price increases in coal processing and black metal industries [3] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with high levels of market liquidity and margin financing, although there was a slight decrease [5] - Since August, the market has shown characteristics of a structural bull market, particularly in technology sectors [5] - Current market movements are characterized by low trading volumes, indicating limited downward pressure [5] - Despite some fundamental pressures, the overall liquidity and sentiment environment remains supportive of thematic opportunities [5] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors should maintain a low allocation, while observing extreme market developments [6] - Focus on sectors with catalysts, such as anti-involution related industries and real estate chain rebound stocks [6] - In offensive sectors, technology remains a key focus, with strong performance expected in autonomous control, solid-state, energy storage, and robotics [6] - Consumer sectors are anticipated to benefit from policy support and increased market activity, particularly in construction and chemical industries [6]

9月18日，A股冲高回落，三大指数均跌超1%，创业板指数日内振幅接近4%；A股市场成交额达3.17万 亿元，这是自8月28日以来时隔15个交易日再次突破3万亿元。 多位受访分析人士表示，美联储重启降息通道不仅提振全球风险偏好，更显著改善新兴市场流动性预 期，预计A股与港股市场将迎来风险偏好修复与外资回流的双重利好。从结构性机会看，科技成长、低 波红利及部分景气度回升的板块值得关注，四季度市场或呈现"政策驱动+盈利改善"双向支撑下的震荡 上行态势。 ● 刘英杰 谭丁豪 流动性环境进一步改善 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会公布最新利率决议宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个 基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，这是美联储自2024年12月以来首次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降 息。 多位市场分析人士认为，随着风险偏好回升与宏观环境渐趋明朗，A股或呈现结构性行情，债市利率仍 有下行空间。同时，A股和港股部分板块有望在全球资本再配置中脱颖而出。 廖博表示，风险偏好或成为决定市场走势的重要影响因子，下半年市场可能走出股债齐涨的行情。综合 来看，A股有望形成低波红利与科技成长交替向上的结构化行情。固定收 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15%, with a trading volume of 1.37 trillion, an increase of 360 billion from the previous trading day [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, with a trading volume of 1.77 trillion, up 400 billion from the previous day [2] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index initially rose due to interest rate cuts but experienced a significant drop in the afternoon, indicating selling pressure [3] - A divergence signal appeared on the 30-minute chart, with over 4,000 stocks declining, suggesting a decrease in profitability [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index did not maintain its previous upward momentum, indicating increased selling pressure and a lack of strong new market leaders [3] Market Sentiment - Approximately 1,027 stocks rose while around 4,350 stocks fell, reflecting a poor market performance [4] - Only about 72 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 2 non-ST stocks hit the daily limit down, indicating a sharp decline in short-term sentiment [5] Major Events - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut since 2025 [6] Summary - The market experienced significant fluctuations, with the technology sector initially leading the indices higher before a sharp decline in the afternoon [7] - The overall market sentiment cooled rapidly, with over 4,300 stocks declining, despite some sectors like semiconductors and robotics showing strength [7] - The financial sector's underperformance during the index's attempts to rise contributed to the overall market's volatility [8] Sector Highlights - The market showed a general downtrend, but the automotive services and tourism hotel sectors performed well [9] - The tourism and hotel sectors benefited from government policies aimed at expanding service consumption and the upcoming "super golden week" holiday, with a 45% year-on-year increase in cross-province travel orders reported by Ctrip [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows a clear divergence between technology stocks leading the gains and cyclical stocks undergoing adjustments, indicating a structural market trend with potential for increased short-term volatility [4][5][7]. Market Performance - The two markets recorded a trading volume of 1.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.15% from the previous day, reflecting strong market liquidity and active capital flow [5]. - A total of 2,504 stocks rose, with a notable ratio of 30 stocks hitting the daily limit up, highlighting a positive market sentiment [4]. Sector Analysis - Technology sectors such as photolithography machines, diversified finance, wind power equipment, consumer electronics, and humanoid robots saw significant gains, while sectors like precious metals, tourism, pork, and prepared dishes experienced declines [4]. - Institutional investors are shifting strategies, moving away from defensive sectors like non-ferrous metals and coal towards technology stocks, indicating a clear "abandoning cyclical, attacking technology" trend [7]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are increasingly using leverage to participate in the market, with a notable rise in trading activity in small and mid-cap technology stocks, reflecting a strong enthusiasm for policy-driven themes [7]. - The sentiment among retail investors is high, with 75.85% indicating a bullish outlook [8]. Positioning - As of September 17, 34.27% of investors increased their positions, while 17.18% reduced their holdings, with 48.55% remaining neutral [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market shows a structural trend, with a suggestion to hold IM long positions in stock index futures, maintain short - volatility strategies in stock index options, and be cautious about the long - end of the bond market in bond futures [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Structural trend, with a suggestion to observe more and act less. Yesterday, the A - share market showed a structural trend, with the total A - share index basically flat and trading volume dropping to around 2.3 trillion. The new energy and automotive sectors led the gains, while communications, banking, and defense were relatively weak. In the short - term, the outlook is positive due to signs of institutional capital entry, improved market confidence, and positive speculation sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [3][9]. - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contract basis points were - 5.26, - 0.22, - 23.16, - 46.97 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 6.46, - 0.28, - 15.41, - 16.89 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts were 8.0, - 0.4, 64.0, 67.6 points respectively, with month - on - month changes of 1.8, 0.0, 13.2, 0.8 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM changed by - 11030, - 1517, - 18126, - 15462 lots respectively [9]. Stock Index Options - **View**: During the adjustment, there is differentiation, and it is recommended to maintain short - volatility strategies. The market is in an adjustment phase with internal differentiation. From the perspective of sentiment indicators, the put - to - call ratio in the ChiNext and STAR Market is high, while dividend - related products like 50ETF are far from their previous highs. In terms of volatility, the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were volatile, while other products rose slightly. It is recommended to continue short - volatility strategies such as covered calls and straddles [4][9]. - **Data**: The trading volume of the options market was 890.2 million yuan, a 28.81% decrease from the previous trading day [9]. Bond Futures - **View**: Be cautious about the long - end of the bond market. Yesterday, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net open - market injection of 8.85 billion yuan. However, during the tax - payment period, inter - bank market interest rates rose slightly. The August consumption and fixed - asset investment growth data were lower than expected, which is positive for the bond market, but the long - end is still affected by policy expectations and risk appetite. In the short - term, the central bank will support the short - end, and there may be long - end arbitrage and curve - steepening opportunities [5][10][11]. - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts were 94600, 54025, 24122, 111024 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 9200, - 17431, - 10117, - 39156 lots. The positions were 211649, 117782, 66544, 141755 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of 3776, - 952, 1400, - 554 lots. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - product spreads, and basis points also had corresponding changes [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It lists economic data announcements for the current week, including China's August social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year rate, industrial added - value year - on - year rate, Eurozone's September ZEW economic sentiment index, US August retail sales month - on - month rate, and other data [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice on deepening the reform of cross - border investment and financing foreign exchange management, including canceling pre - investment fee registration, simplifying re - investment registration, and expanding cross - border financing convenience [13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures, but specific data details are not fully provided [14][18][30].

引子 第二是冷热假象。就像现在，传媒、新材料板块被机构持续加仓，但多数散户还在追逐前期热门题材。 最近市场热闹非凡，上证指数稳稳站上3400点，成交量持续放大，个股涨跌比达到2.57:1。表面上看，这似乎是个遍地黄金的行情。但作为一 个浸淫市场多年的量化投资者，我看到的却是另一番景象——106只个股连续5天以上获得主力资金净买入，其中万凯新材和长江传媒更是连续 13天被机构青睐。这让我想起格雷厄姆那句警世箴言："牛市是普通投资者亏损的主要原因。" 一、牛市里的四大迷思 市场越是火热，假象就越是层出不穷。我总结出当前市场最典型的四个认知误区： 第一是待涨假象。很多人看着指数上涨就认为所有股票都会雨露均沾，实际上即便在如此"牛市"中，涨幅超过6%的个股也不到五成。 第三是涨跌假象。股价上涨未必是真涨，下跌也未必是真跌，关键要看背后的资金性质。 第四是高低假象。估值高低不能简单看PE，更要看资金介入程度。有些看似高估的股票反而被机构持续买入。 二、焦虑的根源在于视角 投资中最折磨人的不是亏损，而是焦虑。涨了怕踏空，跌了怕套牢；赚钱怕回吐，亏钱怕深套。这种煎熬我太熟悉了——十年前我刚入市时也 是这样患得患失。 后来我 ...