"政治新闻网"称，与会者包括美国国会众议长迈克·约翰逊、参议院共和党领袖约翰·图恩、国会参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默以 及众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯。此次会议前不到一周，特朗普曾突然取消与舒默和杰弗里斯的既定会面。 【环球网报道 记者 张倩】美国"政治新闻网"9月27日援引三名匿名知情人士消息报道称，美国总统特朗普将于当地时间29日14 时与国会两党高层会面——此时美国政府已经进入"停摆"危机48小时倒计时。 报道称，据知情人士透露，图恩和舒默曾于26日通话，舒默敦促图恩"促成与特朗普总统的会面，因为政府'停摆'的最后期限迫 在眉睫"。知情人士称，此次电话是由舒默发起的。 据介绍，美国联邦政府资金将在9月30日午夜耗尽，若两党届时不能就相关拨款法案协商一致，部分政府机构将面临"停摆"。 白宫管理和预算办公室已指示联邦机构准备裁员计划，以便在可能的政府停摆期间进行大规模解雇，而非临时停薪休假。 ...

The clock is ticking toward a crisis. As a bitter political impasse between congressional Democrats and Republicans deepens, the risk of a partial US government shutdown beginning next week is rising, casting a long and anxious shadow over the nation's financial markets. ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着美国国会民主党与共和党就联邦政府后续资金拨付方案陷入僵局，美国政府部 门下周开始部分停摆的风险正持续上升。如果政府停摆，这可能通过限制金融监管机构的运作、推迟关 键经济数据的发布等方式对市场产生影响。 市场可能作何反应? 从历史经验来看，市场往往对政府停摆不以为意。但这一次，情况或许会有所不同。 野村证券分析师在本周报告中指出，若停摆持续时间较长，可能导致投资者评估宏观经济趋势所需的关 键数据延迟发布甚至取消，例如月度就业报告与通胀数据。 分析师进一步表示，这将使美联储陷入"盲目决策"的境地，从而更有可能坚持其原有的2025年剩余时间 内两次降息25个基点的经济预测。 道明证券在一份报告中提到，由于投资者无法判断美国经济放缓的程度，市场对降息的预期将更加坚 定，进而可能导致美国国债收益率曲线进一步陡峭化，短期与长期国债收益率的差距也会随之扩大。 此外，长期政府停摆还可能影响部分市场参与者开展复杂交易的能力——这类交易往往需要监管机构提 供指导支持。 根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)2024年10月制定的政府资金中断应急预案，若停摆启动，该机构或将大 幅缩减人员规模，仅保留核心骨干团队。 ...

| Millio | > 國技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月25日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡回落。本周鲍威尔演讲中指出政策利率仍然略带限制性，强调政策将根据数据和经济前景灵 活调整。美联储多位官员讲话体观谨慎态度，对后续降息存在分歧。关注今晚美国周度初请失业金人数和周 五的PCE通胀数据以及美国政府停摆的解决进展。 贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但短期波动加剧保持观望。 ★美国财长贝森特:美联储利率已过高太久了;我们将进入宽松周期。鲍威尔本应发出100至150个基点降息 的信号。FOMC今年票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比警告不要进行一系列降息，称其对通胀问题仍存忧虑，下 次会议不愿支持降息；旧金山联储主席戴利则认为经济增长、劳动力等放缓，而 ...

The risk of a partial U.S. government shutdown beginning next week is rising as congressional Democrats and Republicans hit an impasse over how to continue to fund the federal government. ...

| Mile | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月24日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续强势。鲍威尔演讲中指出政策利率仍然略带限制性，强调政策将根据教据和经济前景灵活调 整。地缘博弈局面难解,美国总统特朗普称如果俄罗斯不愿达成协议,已准备好加征关税。后续关注美国政 府停摆、美联储独立性等问题的演绎,贵金属偏强趋势未改但短期波动可能加剧。 ★美联储主席鲍威尔:政策利率仍然略带限制性,但使美联储能够更好地应对潜在的经济进展;预计关税将 是一次性传导效应；决策"绝不会基于政治因素"。"美联储传声简"指出，鲍威尔比番言论表明其认为利 率仍偏紧缩，或为进一步降息打开空间。美联储古尔斯比：目前没有考虑降息50个基点。最终美联储利率可 能会稳定 ...

9月24日，沪金主力暂报860.00元/克，涨幅达1.03%，今日沪金主力开盘价861.34元/克，截至目前最高 862.10元/克，最低853.74元/克。 【宏观消息】 美国9月标普全球制造业PMI初值为52，预期52，8月终值53。服务业PMI初值为53.9，综合PMI初值为 53.6，均低于预期并创三个月新低。 【黄金期货行情表现】 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，从许多衡量指标来看，比如股票价格，目前的确相当高估。但他也表示，目前 并不是金融稳定风险高企的时候；美联储的职责不是盯着股价或决定合理估值是多少。此外，他未就美 联储是否会在10月会议上降息给出任何暗示，令市场失望。 【机构观点】 美联储内部虽又对年内接下来降息有一定分歧，但特朗普新任理事表示继续支持降息，且下任美联储主 席候选人即将敲定，选定的下一任美联储主席将偏向于特朗普政府宽松观点，市场对于美联储年内两次 降息仍较为乐观。此外，因拨款方案被否定，美国政府停摆风险上升；多个国家与美以对立，表示支持 巴勒斯坦建国，全球政治风险仍存，可能抑制风险偏好。此外，中国在内的股市短期波动风险上升，市 场部分资金投资方向或有变化，而贵金属盘面因走势较好，或受到 ...

市场有意思的一幕再次发生了：美股和黄金同时创下新高。 前者是市场情绪被AI增长乐观预期裹挟；后者则是对美元信用略显悲观的审视。 （注：行情数据请以最新为准） 市场再押注 美联储进一步降息 据媒体报道，美联储降息预期最近又有几个催化： 1）美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话； 2）新任美联储理事米兰呼吁大幅降息； 3）PCE物价数据将发布。 北京时间9月24日凌晨，鲍威尔将就美国经济前景发表讲话。 就在一周前，他刚刚在议息会议上发表了降息25个BP的决定，但由于表示"降息举措是一项风险管理决策，没有必要快速调整利率"，一度被视为"放鹰"； 北京时间9月23日，新任美联储理事米兰呼吁大幅降息，以避免劳动力市场遭受不必要的损害。 米兰是特朗普最新任命的理事，因此其发声也被认为：美国政府有意在推动更大力度的降息； 北京时间9月26日，美联储"最看重的"通胀数据核心PCE物价指数将发布。 该数据直接关系到：评估关税政策对核心PCE通胀率的影响，如果通胀能够低于预期，将进一步为降息扫清障碍。此前鲍威尔表示："关税成本…… 主要 由处于出口商和消费者之间的企业承担。转嫁给消费者的部分非常少，而且比我们预期的更慢、更滞后，规模也更小 ...

Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - The short - term strategy is to sell at high prices, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. There are still geopolitical risks and supply disturbances [1] Fuel Oil - It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak and volatile pattern. High - sulfur demand is falling, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure, but both lack strong price drivers [19] Natural Gas (implied in LPG) - LPG is expected to trade in a bottom - grinding pattern. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased marginally, and the import cost is expected to improve [21] Coal (implied in Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to high iron - water production. However, there is a game between price increases and decreases, and inventory is accumulating [14][15] Bitumen - It showed a relatively small decline in the oil products market. Demand is increasing due to pre - holiday rush work, and inventory is decreasing [20] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - They are in a medium - term upward trend but should be treated with caution in the short term due to inflation pressure and geopolitical games [2] Base Metals - Aluminum: It is in a callback. Market drivers are weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive positive feedback between inventory and spot [3] - Zinc: Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6] - Lead: The fundamentals have improved in the short term, but the upward trend is under pressure due to external market supply [7] - Nickel: The supply disturbance has subsided, and the overall trend is weak [8] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: In the context of "anti - involution", it is recommended to buy on dips [16][17] Iron and Steel - Steel prices are in a rebound but with limited upside due to weak demand. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13] Group 3: Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The short - term futures may face a correction, but there may be a chance for a phased recovery if it stabilizes at the support level [10] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to continue the volatile pattern as the supply - demand contradiction persists [11] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may show a weak and volatile trend due to supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectations [27] PX and PTA - Their market expectations are weakening, and the processing margins have limited room for repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - It is under pressure due to new device expectations, but the current supply pressure is not large [29] Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip - Short - fiber can be considered for long - term allocation, while bottle - grade chip has limited room for processing margin recovery [30] Glass - It is in a pattern of high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and look for long opportunities near the cost [31] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the impact of typhoon weather on supply [32] Urea - Supply is increasing, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term [22] Methanol - It is in a weak position in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [23] Pure Benzene - The reality is okay, but the expectation is weak due to high import expectations and poor downstream profits [24] Styrene - Supply is increasing more than demand, and the price trend is weak [25] Polypropylene and Plastic - They are in a weak and volatile pattern due to the game between supply and demand [26] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - Corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom due to sufficient supply [38] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean and soybean meal may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and soybean meal can be cautiously bullish in the long term. Soybean oil and palm oil should pay attention to trade trends and can be considered for long - term buying [34][35] Cotton - It is recommended to wait and see after the downward break. New cotton production is expected to be high, but the impact of possible抢购is controllable [40] Sugar - US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic market focuses on the next season's production estimate [41] Fruit - Apple futures are expected to decline in the short term due to expected high inventory [42] Wood - The price increase momentum is insufficient due to weak peak - season demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [43] Pulp - It is in a low - level volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to inventory and warehouse receipt changes [44] Group 5: Others Shipping - The container shipping index may return to the downward channel if the Maersk opening price continues to decline [18] Stock Index - The stock market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [44] Bond - The bond market shows a structural differentiation, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. The mid - term strategy is to short on rallies. For precious metals, the mid - term upward trend remains, but short - term caution is advised. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with various investment suggestions for each [1][2]. Summaries by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: The bearish trend persists, with geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruptions from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. It is recommended to hold short positions with out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur demand declines, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure. It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak - side oscillation, with potential price fluctuations due to geopolitical situations [19]. - **Asphalt**: Although crude oil prices are falling, asphalt shows relatively small declines. With increased pre - holiday terminal demand in the north and inventory reduction, the futures price shows a strong - side oscillation [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply and demand improve marginally, and the import cost expectation is positive. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21]. Metals - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally increasing, but the inventory inflection point has not appeared. There is resistance at the March high, and the pre - holiday inventory and spot feedback should be monitored [3]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with tight scrap aluminum supply and expected tax policy adjustment increasing costs, showing stronger resilience [4]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity hits a new high, and the inventory is rising. The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to reach the support level around 2,830 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: LME and domestic inventories are both decreasing. Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to short on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals improve in the short term, but the external market is under pressure. The price is expected to rebound with resistance [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply disruption eases, and the overall trend is weak [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is slightly stronger than last year, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. - **Coke**: There is a game between price cuts and increases. The inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The production increases slightly, and the inventory rises. It is recommended to go long on dips [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The demand and production are increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the "anti - involution" context [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The demand is okay, and the supply recovers to a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The futures price may face a correction, but there may be a phased repair opportunity if it stabilizes at the support level [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply surplus expectation remains, and the demand increase is limited. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the month - spread may widen [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The strong supply - demand expectation of PX weakens, and the PTA processing margin repair space is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory reduction [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The new - device expectation and weak external sentiment put pressure on the price. The supply pressure is not large in reality, but the expectation is weak [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing margin repair space due to over - capacity [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Argentina's export tax cancellation affects the market. The short - term market may oscillate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for soybean meal [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Argentina's policy changes the market sentiment. In the long - term, considering the biodiesel policy, it is advisable to buy on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The international rapeseed supply is seasonally loose, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The oil - meal ratio is expected to rise in the short - term [36]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. The futures price may run weakly at the bottom [38]. - **Cotton**: The new - cotton production may be high, and the demand support is limited. After the price break - down, short - term observation is recommended [40]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic market focuses on the next - season's output [41]. - **Apples**: The supply lacks positive drivers, and the short - term price is expected to decline [42]. - **Timber**: The supply may remain low, and the demand in the peak season is weak. The price increase power is insufficient [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the supply is loose. The operation suggestion is to observe or trade in the oscillation range [44]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is weak, and the price increase is difficult to implement. The盘面 may return to the downward channel [18]. - **Stock Index**: The macro - risk preference is high, and the market style is recommended to increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector and moderately allocate the cyclical style [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The debt risk is under control, and the liquidity is expected to be abundant. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45].