英国金融时评美国9月非农报告指出，美国劳动力市场意外反弹，这将使美联储关于下月是否降息的决 策更趋复杂。周四公布的9月新增非农人口录得11.9万人，不仅高于机构调查经济学家预测的5万人，也 显著高于8月修正后的2.2万人。失业率则从8月的4.3%升至4.4%，创2021年以来新高。这份报告是自美 国联邦政府创纪录停摆导致官方数据中断发布以来，美国劳工统计局发布的首个经济健康指标。意外向 好的数据将强化联邦公开市场委员会鹰派成员的立场，他们始终警告美联储不宜过快降息。数据公布 后，美国国债收益率与美元指数双双走低。尽管美国总统特朗普长期施压美联储降息，但央行内部已出 现深刻分歧：一派主张在12月会议继续降息以支撑劳动力市场，另一派则担忧可能加剧通胀风险。政府 停摆使美联储决策雪上加霜——常规经济报告发布中断，劳工统计局周三更宣布因停摆期间数据收集工 作停滞，将不再单独发布10月就业报告，部分数据将合并至11月报告发布。 来源：滚动播报 ...

（原标题：金价持续攀升创近三周新高） 波黑国家台11月11日报道。受市场对美联储12月再次降息的预期升温，且美国政府停摆危机出现有 望结束的迹象，黄金价格延续涨势，触及近三周最高点。 美国参议院于11月10日通过一项重启联邦政府拨款协议，史上持续时间最长的政府停摆局面或将告 终。此次政府停摆导致非农就业报告等关键经济指标发布受阻。未来数日政府恢复运转后，市场将更清 晰把握美国经济前景及美联储利率政策走向。（驻波黑使馆经商处） 今晨数据显示，现货黄金价格上涨0.4%至每盎司4131.32美元，创10月23日以来新高。路透社报 道，12月交割的黄金期货合约上涨至每盎司4137.50美元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国劳工部网站公布的历史数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数总 计为23.2万人。 衡量正在领取失业救济人数水平的续请失业金人数报195.7万，略高于前一周的194.7万。至于初请数 据，此前三周的周度数据并未提供。 尽管自10月早些时候政府停摆开始以来，劳工部尚未发布其周度失业救济金报告，但它已通过其他渠道 在其网站上发布了数据。最新的初请数据是通过一个在线数据库获取的，且在整个停摆期间，未经调整 的州级申请数据一直可供下载。 经济学家们一直在利用这些州级数据以及预先发布的季节调整因子来估算周度申请人数。 联邦政府停摆已导致多项关键经济报告推迟发布，包括月度就业报告。官方统计数据的缺乏，迫使经济 学家和投资者转而依赖其他替代性和私营部门指标来评估经济状况。 劳工统计局例外地宣布，将于本周五发布9月份消费者价格指数，以便社会保障管理局能够为社会保障 领取者计算年度生活成本调整。 ...

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Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The commodity market fluctuated upward last week, with an overall increase of 0.87%. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, while black and energy - chemical sectors declined by 0.4% and 0.65% respectively [2][6]. - With the marginal tightening of US dollar liquidity, the commodity market may face short - term pressure. The end of the US government shutdown is beneficial to market risk appetite, but Fed officials' hawkish statements have cooled the expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [2]. Summary by Category Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.87% last week. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products at 0.77% and 0.67% respectively. Black and energy - chemical sectors fell by 0.4% and 0.65% [2][6]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, apples, and rapeseed oil were the top gainers, with increases of 7.55%, 5.86%, and 4.09% respectively. Coking coal, eggs, and glass were the top losers, dropping 6.14%, 5.78%, and 5.41% [6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to decline, with significant decreases in precious metals, chemicals, and soft commodities [2][6]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased, mainly driven by precious metals. Only the black sector had net capital outflows [2][6]. Outlook for Each Sector - **Precious Metals**: The market initially expected economic data during the US government shutdown to confirm economic weakness and increase the probability of a rate cut, but Fed officials' hawkish remarks suppressed rate - cut expectations. The sector may oscillate at high levels [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Domestic fixed - asset investment and social financing were below expectations, and the expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed cooled. With a slight inventory build - up and a tight long - term supply - demand outlook, the sector may face short - term pressure [2]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production decreased, and inventory continued to fall. Iron ore production rebounded last week but still has room to cut. Steel mills' profit margins are average, and they are eager to lower raw material prices. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: OPEC's November report raised non - OPEC+ supply growth and maintained demand growth, shifting the balance from a shortage to equilibrium. The IEA also increased its surplus forecast, and EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 641.3 million barrels. Although geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may support oil prices, the market may face short - term pressure [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester products, the strong overseas gasoline crack spread and tight US aromatic supply boosted the Asian aromatic market, but chemical demand is expected to weaken. For construction products, the cancellation of India's BIS certification for PVC had limited impact. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's November report showed a decrease in the US new - crop soybean's yield, production, exports, and ending stocks. However, since the market had already priced in the positive news, soybean prices fell after the report. Soybean meal may follow the decline, and the edible oil and oilseed sector may oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive weekly returns, with an average increase of around 3.26% - 3.45%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 2,231.72 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase [34]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a - 0.58% return, the soybean meal ETF had a 0.99% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had an 8.94% return [34]. - **Overall Commodity ETFs**: The total scale of commodity ETFs was 2,343.35 billion yuan, with a 2.52% increase. Trading volume also increased significantly by 93.95% [34].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial markets experienced a significant downturn on "Black Friday," with both risk and safe-haven assets declining simultaneously, including a more than 3% drop in Nvidia and a four-day decline in Tesla [1] - The cryptocurrency market saw a substantial correction, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $96,000, while gold prices dropped over 2% to below $4,100 per ounce [1] - The decline was attributed to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, a data vacuum due to the U.S. government shutdown, and concentrated selling pressure in overvalued sectors, leading to increased investor anxiety as indicated by the VIX index rising above 22 [1] Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks, previously a key driver of market gains, faced significant selling pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.5% and the S&P 500 futures down 1% [2] - The adjustment in tech stocks is closely linked to shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropping from 70% to 47% [2] - Nvidia's pre-market drop of 3.11% and a cumulative market cap loss exceeding $200 billion reflect ongoing concerns about high valuations in the AI sector [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Gold - Both cryptocurrencies and gold experienced rare simultaneous declines, indicating a re-evaluation of risk and safe-haven assets [3] - Bitcoin fell to $95,985.4, a nearly 3% drop from the previous close, while Ethereum saw a 10.9% decline, marking its largest single-day drop in three months [5] - Gold's decline of over 2.21% to a low of $4,059.17 per ounce was influenced by a stable U.S. dollar and perceptions of U.S. economic resilience, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5] Group 4: Economic Data and Policy Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, delaying the release of critical economic indicators such as the October CPI and employment data, which complicates Federal Reserve policy decisions [6] - The absence of sufficient data may prevent the Fed from cutting rates, contributing to increased market volatility as uncertainty looms [6]

南华人民币汇率热点 —— 美国政府结束停摆，后续"戏码"如何上演？ 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 联系邮件：zhouji@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月14日 主要观点 2025年11月12日，美国国会众议院表决通过参议院此前已通过的联邦政府临时拨款法案，美国总统特朗普签 署了该法案，标志着持续43天、创下美国历史纪录的政府停摆正式落幕。然而，这份仅覆盖3项年度拨款、支 撑政府运转至2026年1月30日的临时法案，并非危机的终点——9项未敲定的年度预算、悬而未决的政策分 歧，仍将美国政府推向"未完待续"的财政博弈中，其对经济、市场与政策的影响也将持续发酵。 本次美国政府停摆始于2025年10月1日，其根本原因在于国会两党在财政支出上的巨大分歧——在年度 预算拨款问题上陷入了严重的政治僵局。根据美国政治惯例，国会每年需通过12项独立的拨款法案，为联邦 政府下一财年的各项开支提供法律依据。然而，在本次事件中，民主党和共和党在关键政策议题上，特别是 与《平价医疗法案》（Affordable Care Act, ACA）（奥巴马医改）相关的税收抵免政 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government has resumed operations after the longest shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, which caused significant disruptions in air travel and food assistance for low-income Americans [1] - The funding bill passed lacks restrictions on President Trump's spending hold, and does not address the expiring healthcare subsidies that initially triggered the shutdown [1] - The shutdown revealed internal divisions within the Democratic Party, with progressives pushing for stronger actions against Trump, while moderates feel limited by the Republican majority [1] - Approximately 1.4 million federal employees who worked without pay during the shutdown will receive back pay, with payments expected to be completed by the following Wednesday [1] - Trump's administration has paused plans to cut 300,000 jobs from the federal workforce until the end of January [2] - The shutdown has led to the cancellation of thousands of flights due to high absenteeism among air traffic controllers, but the aviation system is beginning to recover [2] - The shutdown is projected to delay $50 billion in spending and reduce U.S. GDP by 1.5 percentage points, with an estimated $14 billion in economic activity losses that cannot be recovered [5] Group 1 - The government shutdown caused chaos in air travel and disrupted food assistance programs for millions of Americans [1] - The funding agreement does not resolve key issues such as healthcare subsidies, leaving the potential for future shutdowns [3] - The shutdown has highlighted the lack of debate on the growing national debt, which is increasing at a rate of approximately $1.8 trillion annually [3] Group 2 - The bipartisan blame for the shutdown is evident, with polls showing 50% of Americans blaming Republicans and 47% blaming Democrats [3] - The economic impact of the shutdown includes delayed loans worth $5.3 billion to 10,000 small businesses [5] - The shutdown has negatively affected consumer confidence ahead of the holiday shopping season [5]

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has internal differences regarding a potential December interest rate cut. The end of the US government shutdown has led to simultaneous declines in US stocks, bonds, and the exchange - rate, increasing market divergence. Gold is short - term bullish and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [1]. - The natural rubber market is currently in a state of mixed long and short factors. Prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations due to factors such as supply disruptions and inventory pressure [2]. - The manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate around the low - end of cost valuation in the short term, with attention on raw material cost adjustments [4]. - The coking coal market is in a stalemate between long and short forces. The main contract has seen a pullback at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, and future supply conditions should be closely monitored [5]. - The steel market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand. Steel prices are expected to continue narrow - range oscillations in the short term, with limited upside and downside potential [6]. - The live hog market's LH2601 contract still faces downward pressure in the short term, with bottom - end oscillations and range - bound trading [6]. - The soybean meal 01 contract is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation between 3030 - 3090 in the short term [7]. - The palm oil market has limited short - term supply - demand contradictions and is mainly for range - bound trading [8]. - The long - term treasury bond market is expected to have a slightly bullish medium - term oscillation, with attention on the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - The silver market is short - term bearish but bullish in the medium term, with attention on the divergence between gold and silver [9]. - The crude oil market is expected to operate in a weak oscillation, with supply - surplus concerns being the core factor determining price direction [10]. - The PTA market is expected to be range - bound, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for further stabilization [12]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to have a short - term oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [13]. - The L2601 contract of plastic is expected to have a short - term oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [14]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Fed has internal differences on a December rate cut. The end of the government shutdown has increased market divergence. Gold is short - term bullish and medium - term high - level oscillating. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [1]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw rubber prices are stable, and domestic inventories show different trends. The domestic production area is entering a reduction period, and overseas rainfall has affected supply. However, high inventory and a large price difference with synthetic rubber restrict price increases. Short - term price range - bound oscillations are expected [2]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate and daily output of manganese silicon have increased slightly. Cost is in a stalemate, demand support is weakening, and supply is expected to remain high. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate around the low - end of cost valuation [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate and production of coking coal mines have increased. The market is in a long - short stalemate due to supply - side support and energy supply concerns. The main contract has pulled back, and actual supply should be monitored [5]. Rebar - This week, rebar production, inventory, and demand have all decreased. The steel market has weak supply and demand, with a larger inventory decline and cost support. Short - term narrow - range oscillations are expected [6]. Live Hogs - The national live hog price has continued to decline. Weak terminal demand, low slaughterhouse acquisition enthusiasm, and high breeding - end sales pressure have led to downward pressure on the LH2601 contract [6]. Soybean Meal - Imported soybean supply is sufficient, oil - mill开机率 is rising, and demand is stable. Inventory is increasing, restricting price increases. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [7]. Palm Oil - Indian palm oil imports have decreased significantly in October due to high inventory. The domestic market is in an adjustment phase with limited supply - demand contradictions and is mainly for range - bound trading [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The growth of social financing in October has slowed, and the marginal effect of monetary policy easing has weakened. Macro - control may shift to promoting consumption. The bond market is slightly bullish in the medium term, with attention on the stock - bond seesaw [9]. Silver - The end of the US government shutdown has reduced risk appetite. Silver is short - term bearish and medium - term bullish, with attention on the divergence between gold and silver [9]. Crude Oil - The IEA has further raised the supply - surplus pressure forecast. The market is concerned about supply surplus, and prices are expected to operate in a weak oscillation [10]. PTA - PTA production has decreased, polyester inventory has decreased, and demand is fair. With crude oil oscillating weakly, PTA is expected to be range - bound, and waiting and seeing is advisable [12]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation, and waiting for further stabilization is recommended [12]. Soda Ash - The price of soda ash has risen slightly, production has decreased, and inventory has changed slightly. The glass market has weak demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. Plastic - The price of LLDPE has increased slightly, production has increased, and inventory has risen. Downstream demand is weak. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [14].

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, has officially ended after President Trump signed a temporary funding bill [1] - The House of Representatives passed the bill with a vote of 222 in favor and 209 against, following its approval in the Senate on January 10 [1] - The bill will fund most federal agencies at current levels until January 30, 2026, which may have economic implications [1] - Economists estimate that the shutdown could lead to a decline of over 0.1 percentage points in U.S. GDP [1]