Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The global oil market is experiencing inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and sanctions on supply from Iran and Russia [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - International oil prices fell on Thursday as concerns about the US economic outlook outweighed the benefits of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday and signaled further cuts this year, but the latest US data showed a slowdown in the economy and an unexpected increase in distillate inventories, which dampened demand expectations. Ecopetrol will complete its 2025 drilling target ahead of schedule and may exceed its production target. The EU is planning to accelerate the phase - out of Russian liquefied natural gas, and analysts expect the global natural gas market to turn into a supply surplus in the second half of next year [5]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.013 million barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a 1.69% increase from the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.504 million barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%, and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.579 million barrels per day to 5.692 million barrels per day. From September 5 - 11, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic production and inventory of gasoline and diesel both increased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [6]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy on Friday. Fundamentally, the global oil market is accumulating inventory, and refinery profits are declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will be in surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential to disrupt Russian supply [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a slight decline, influenced by macroeconomic factors and mixed demand and supply dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, but the reduction is modest, leading to a decrease in preemptive market expectations [1] - Jerome Powell emphasized that there is no broad support for larger rate cuts and that the Fed's policy will remain independent of political influences, resulting in a decline in market risk appetite [1] Supply Dynamics - In August, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons to 1.1715 million tons [1] - It is anticipated that five smelting plants may undergo maintenance in September, potentially leading to a further decrease in domestic electrolytic copper production by 5.25 million tons [1] Demand Dynamics - The domestic copper market is showing significant structural differentiation in demand, with traditional consumption sectors experiencing weakness [1] - Although air conditioning retail sales continue to grow, production data for September has declined [1] - The real estate sector is slowly recovering but still shows weak demand [1] - Strong demand is noted in the new energy vehicle and power sectors, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 6.5 million units in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 29% [1] - National cumulative power generation capacity has increased by 18.2% year-on-year, providing strong support for copper demand [1] Market Outlook - Future market expectations should be tempered, as there is a risk of buying on expectations and selling on facts [1] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, and recession risks cannot be ignored, which may limit upward price potential [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2] - The primary concern for the Federal Reserve is the weak employment market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below market expectations [2][3] - The inflation rate remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year in August, the largest increase since January [3] Group 2 - Observers note that while the rate cut aligns with expectations, it may not alleviate the Trump administration's dissatisfaction with the Fed, which has been under pressure to lower rates significantly [4] - The Fed's decision-making body indicated that future adjustments to the federal funds rate will depend on ongoing data assessments and changing economic conditions [6] - The median forecast from the Fed's dot plot suggests a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in the remaining two policy meetings of the year [7] Group 3 - The probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in the October meeting has risen to 87.7%, up from 74.3% the previous day [8] - Analysts believe that while rate cuts may lower borrowing costs and stimulate demand, ongoing issues such as tariffs and immigration policies could negatively impact consumer and business confidence, complicating the Fed's inflation control efforts [9] - Economists suggest that the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach, with fewer than two rate hikes anticipated in 2025 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with expectations of low growth in the coming quarters, as indicated by various economic indicators and expert analyses [1][2]. Economic Performance - The U.S. labor market has weakened significantly compared to a few months ago, with new job additions expected to be only half of initial projections for the period from March 2024 to March 2025 [1]. - Industrial production is also showing early signs of fatigue, contributing to a forecast of long-term low growth for the U.S. economy [1]. - The anticipated growth rate for the U.S. economy in 2026 is around 1.25%, significantly lower than the projected 2.8% for 2024 [1]. Inflation and Trade Policies - The increase in tariffs under the Trump administration is expected to have a delayed impact on the real economy, similar to the effects observed during his first term [2]. - Rising inflation is anticipated, driven in part by these tariffs, which have already begun to affect consumer prices, particularly in sectors like automotive and food [2][3]. - The inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July, indicating a trend of increasing prices [2]. Corporate Responses and Labor Market - Companies are increasingly passing on tariff costs to consumers, leading to price hikes in imported goods [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to support the labor market, which is under pressure from economic conditions and the rise of artificial intelligence [3]. - The integration of AI in businesses is leading to job reductions, as companies seek to enhance efficiency, with significant layoffs already reported [3][4]. Future Outlook - There is a growing concern that a recession, exacerbated by AI replacing jobs, could have a more severe impact on the labor market than previous downturns [4][5].

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,382 kilograms to 1,246,569 kilograms as of September 12 [1] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,777 CNY/kg, reached a high of 10,065 CNY/kg, and closed at 10,035 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.36% increase [1] - The increase in warehouse receipts was primarily driven by the Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, which contributed 6,227 kilograms [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - The IMF indicated that the U.S. economy is showing signs of pressure, with weakening domestic demand and slowing job growth [2] - High tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to inflation risks, with the IMF suggesting that the Federal Reserve should be cautious in its monetary policy decisions [2] - The IMF noted that while inflation is gradually approaching the Fed's 2% target, tariff policies are adding upward pressure on prices, potentially affecting household living costs [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The IMF believes there is still room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but any actions should be taken cautiously [3] - The Fed is advised to closely monitor economic data and adjust policies prudently to balance economic growth and price stability [3] - This "tightrope" policy approach presents challenges for the Fed and adds uncertainty to the future trajectory of the U.S. economy [3]

Core Insights - Gold prices are expected to continue receiving support through the remainder of 2025 due to increasing market risks, including inflation concerns, rising government debt, and a slowing U.S. economy [2] - Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target to $3,900 per ounce, with expectations that gold could reach $4,000 per ounce and silver $50 per ounce in the next three to six months [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold may break below the support level of $3,623 per ounce, potentially falling to a range of $3,539 to $3,591 [3] Market Dynamics - Speculative positions in gold have decreased since April, while demand has risen amid limited supply, which is expected to further drive up gold prices [2] - The flow of funds into ETFs remains a significant factor influencing gold prices, particularly in Asia, with potential for further price increases if momentum in fund flows improves [2] Technical Analysis - The five-wave cycle starting from $3,322 appears to have completed, with a target area for retracement identified between $3,539 and $3,591 [3] - A resistance level is noted at $3,649, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a mild increase into the range of $3,674 to $3,685 [3] - Recent candlestick patterns indicate a waning bullish momentum, with a high likelihood of a pullback to $3,576 [3]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continue to hold strong near historical highs, currently trading around $3,645 per ounce, following a record high of $3,674 on September 10, with a year-to-date increase of over 39% [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to solidified expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions, reinforcing gold's status as a traditional safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August, contrasting with economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, indicating cooling inflation pressures in the U.S. economy [3] - The PPI's year-on-year increase was only 2.6%, below the expected 3.3%, suggesting a slowdown in inflation momentum, particularly driven by falling service prices [3] - The U.S. dollar index showed minimal movement post-PPI data release, closing at 97.83, reflecting a nearly 10% decline year-to-date, influenced by chaotic trade and fiscal policies [3] - The bond market mirrored these sentiments, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.038%, a five-month low, supported by strong demand in Treasury auctions [4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have intensified, with a 100% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting, and an 8-10% chance of a 50 basis point cut [4] Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes and Poland's downing of a Russian drone, have further supported gold prices as investors seek safety amid rising global uncertainties [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are showing strong momentum, with potential to test the $3,700 mark, as short-term support is observed around $3,635 [6] - Traders are advised to monitor support levels at $3,630 and $3,623 for potential long positions, while resistance is noted at $3,660 and $3,700 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The post-COVID economic recovery in the U.S. is facing significant challenges, with increasing evidence of economic slowdown despite previous optimism [1] Labor Market Weakness - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with a downward revision of non-farm employment data by 911,000 jobs, marking the largest adjustment since 2000 [3] - The downward revisions are concentrated in the private sector, particularly in leisure, hospitality, professional services, retail, and manufacturing [3] - Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan highlights that consumer confidence may be impacted, although most consumers still have jobs and continue to spend [4] Consumer Spending Trends - Deloitte forecasts that retail sales growth for the holiday season in 2025-2026 will drop to 2.9%-3.4%, the lowest since the pandemic, indicating weakened consumer momentum [5] - A PwC survey indicates that U.S. households plan to reduce average holiday spending by approximately 5.3%, particularly affecting gift budgets [5] - Credit card debt has reached a historical high, with serious delinquencies at their highest level in over a decade [5] Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Fitch Ratings predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and December, with three additional cuts expected in 2026 due to concerns over the labor market and consumer demand [7] - Market participants are increasingly betting on rate cuts, with over 90% probability of a total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of December [7] - JPMorgan warns that even if rate cuts occur, it may trigger a sell-off in the stock market, leading to short-term declines despite a 10% rise in the S&P 500 this year [7]

Core Viewpoint - Lombard Odier indicates that gold prices may continue to receive support for the remainder of 2025 due to increasing market risks, including inflation concerns, rising government debt, and a slowing U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The backdrop for gold reaching historical highs includes heightened market risks, such as inflation worries, increasing government debt, and a decelerating U.S. economy [1] - Since April, speculative positions have decreased, while demand has risen amid constrained supply, which is expected to further drive up gold prices [1] Group 2: Investment Influences - The flow of funds into ETFs has been a significant factor influencing gold prices, particularly in Asia [1] - If there are signs of a rebound in fund flow momentum, gold prices could see further increases [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target to $3,900 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lombard Odier indicates that gold prices may continue to receive support for the remainder of 2025 due to increasing market risks, including inflation concerns, rising government debt, and a slowing U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The backdrop for gold reaching historical highs includes heightened market risks such as inflation worries, escalating government debt, and a decelerating U.S. economy [1] - Since April, speculative positions have decreased, while demand has risen amid constrained supply, which is expected to further drive up gold prices [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The flow of funds into ETFs has been a significant factor influencing gold, particularly in Asia [1] - If there are signs of a rebound in fund flow momentum, gold prices could see further increases [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target to $3,900 per ounce [1]