Labor Market Insights - July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, below the market expectation of 104,000[13] - Revisions for May and June showed a downward adjustment of 125,000 and 133,000 respectively, indicating a weaker labor market than previously thought[13] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, aligning with market expectations, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[13] Economic Trends - The labor market is entering a "relaxation" phase, with both supply and demand weakening, leading to a potential rise in the unemployment rate[2] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. increased to 18.3% after August 1, which may have a more significant short-term impact on investment than on consumption[4] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.6%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the July employment data, the market has priced in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September[3] - Fed Chair Powell indicated a focus on the unemployment rate rather than non-farm payroll numbers, suggesting that a rate cut may be contingent on unemployment exceeding 4.3%[3] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.4%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 17 basis points to 4.2%[4] - The dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, and the offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar[4]

市场大幅增加降息定价，美元资产波动显著：美元资产快速定价了降息预期的回升和经济的走弱。 CME数据显示联邦基金利率期货交易者预期2025年在9月、10月、12月出现3次降息，累计75BP，比7月 FOMC会后的降息概率显著回升。资产方面，标普500、纳斯达克和道琼斯指数均明显下跌;10年期美债 数据的疑点：BLS对下修的解释主要是季节性因子调整和后续回收问卷显示就业下滑，但其实不难看出 6月下修的就业近半源自于非正常性的"州和地方政府教育岗位"，该数据不仅不受企业诞生倒闭模型的 影响，受季节性调整影响也有限，因此政府数据为何突然下调就业并不清楚。而问卷回收率虽然一般， 但实际上也好于去年同期，并不能解释如此大幅的数据波动。 质量降低的劳动数据自身未必可以有效辅助美联储决策：虽然中国银河证券此前持续支出非农就业存在 高估，但两个月下修25.8万个就业在该数据的历史上也实属异常(有异常事件和天气的月份除外)。中国 银河证券倾向于非农就业本月的下修和此前的高估一样存在夸大，但本月数据反映的问题不光是劳动市 场的进一步下滑，更重要的是BLS劳动数据的质量问题也在加剧，这其实不利于美联储依据数据做出决 策。考虑到薪资回 ...

来源：央视 美国劳工部8月1日公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比上升，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位表现也逊 于市场预期。同时，5月和6月非农业部门新增就业岗位数量较此前公布数据有大幅下调，显示美国就业 市场明显降温。 最新就业数据发布后，美国总统特朗普对该数据表示不满，并于当天宣布他已下令解雇劳工部下属的劳 工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗，并指控她"出于政治目的操纵就业数据"。 《华尔街日报》报道截图 中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌接受中央广播电视总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析说，最新数据表 明，美国经济目前整体处于向下的态势。 尽管二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）的增速超预期，但今年上半年GDP的增速只有1.4%，这个 速度低于美国经济潜在产值水平1.8%。美国经济实际上在放缓，这是一个大趋势。 7月份美国制造业PMI指数比预期下滑很多，原来预期在49.5，现在只有48。仔细分解看，下行较 快的有"新订单指数"，这反映出在美国大规模关税摩擦下，全球外部市场不及预期，美国企业的 新订单数大幅下滑。 就业指数也只有43.4，创五年多以来的最低水平。 申请失业的人数也超预期，说明美国劳动力市场在降温。 美国物价水平也 ...

7 月非农就业疲软。新增就业 7.3 万，预期 10.4 万。失业率上行 0.13 个百分点至 4.248%（接近四舍五入 至 4.3%），劳动参与率下滑 0.06 个点至 62.2%。时薪环比增 0.3%，持平预期。 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 非农史诗级下修，9 月降息 50bp 成备选 更让市场惊诧的是，5-6 月非农就业大幅下修。5-6 月非农就业大幅下修 25.8 万。其中 5 月下修 12.5 万至 1.9 万，6 月下修 13.3 万至 1.4 万。如此幅度的下修，让市场意识到，前期非农表现好于预期，并不可靠。反倒 是此前被市场嘲讽为反指的 ADP，5 月增 3.7 万，6 月-3.3 万，与修正后的 5-6 月非农更为接近。 非农打破了市场的选择性无视，大幅波动。7 月 30 日美国的 GDP 数据，已经显示出美国居民消费、企业投 资明显放缓的迹象。但市场选择性无视，仅关注 GDP 增长 3%的表象（一季度抢进口做低基数）。此次非农打破 了经济继续向好的幻觉，市场开始审视经济放缓的现实。因而各类资产反映剧烈 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness in July, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of over 140,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The U.S. Labor Department revised down the employment figures for May and June, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs, indicating growing concerns about the slowdown in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - Job growth in July was primarily driven by the healthcare and social services sectors, which added 55,000 and 18,000 jobs respectively, while federal government employment continued to decline [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in July was $36.44, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9% [1] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the labor market, noting that private sector job growth is nearly stagnant and that the labor market is showing signs of vulnerability [2]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with various economic indicators showing a contraction trend compared to the previous two years [1][4] - The OECD has revised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6%, and further down to 1.5% for 2026 [1] - The IMF has also lowered its 2025 growth expectation by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8% [1] Labor Market Analysis - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the anticipated 4.3% [5] - Despite a seemingly stable labor market, there are signs of weakness, particularly in the private sector, where job growth is sluggish [5] - The labor market is under pressure from overall economic slowdown and structural adjustments within industries [5] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest level since February [1] - Tariff policies theoretically increase prices, but their actual impact is mitigated by falling global energy prices and limited implementation of tariffs [2][6] - Energy prices have decreased significantly, with crude oil dropping from around $80 per barrel to approximately $65, contributing to lower inflation [6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts, with a probability exceeding 90% for the September meeting [8] - Current economic conditions, including declining inflation indicators and global economic slowdown, suggest that maintaining the current federal funds rate of 4.25%-4.5% is inappropriate [8] Currency Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index is under pressure due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and a slowdown in global trade growth [9] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves is close to 60%, and its role in global trade settlements is about 50%, indicating a significant impact from trade tensions [9] - Despite some supportive factors for the dollar, such as stable capital inflows, the prevailing negative factors are expected to dominate in the short term [9]

金十数据7月1日讯，美国制造业在6月份仍然低迷，新订单低迷，投入价格攀升，这表明特朗普政府对 进口商品征收的关税继续阻碍企业提前计划的能力。最新的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从5月的 六个月低点48.5微升至49.0。这是PMI连续第四个月低于50，这表明占经济10.2%的制造业出现收缩。与 此同时，楼市、消费者支出和失业人数不断增加等疲弱数据显示，美国经济的潜在动能在第二季进一步 放缓，尽管GDP可能反弹，因创纪录的贸易逆差拖累因进口下降而消退。 受关税影响，美国制造业陷入疲软 ...

智通财经6月24日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国劳动力增长放缓会减缓经济增长，今年经济正在放 缓，移民是其中一个原因。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% and will continue with the existing pace of balance sheet reduction, indicating a cautious approach due to high uncertainty [1][6] - The median target interest rate for 2025 is projected at 3.9%, with potential for two rate cuts within the year, although the number of members expecting no cuts has increased since March [1][6] - Employment trends show a cooling, with May's non-farm payrolls slightly declining and the unemployment rate remaining stable, suggesting a possible overestimation of current employment levels [2][5] Group 2 - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the Fed raising the 2025 unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% and the PCE inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3% [4][6] - Powell noted that rising tariffs could increase prices and pressure economic activity, while the labor market remains solid but with fewer new job opportunities [4][6] - The economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 1.7% to 1.4%, with 2026 also revised down to 1.6%, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty [6][9] Group 3 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen from 60% to 71%, driven by service-led inflation decline, although there are short-term risks from commodity inflation due to tariff policies [9] - The overall economic activity is reported to be slightly declining across most regions, with increased policy and economic uncertainty leading to more cautious decision-making by households and businesses [6][9] - The Fed's cautious stance is influenced by the high-interest rate environment and the ongoing development of Trump administration policies, which contribute to economic uncertainty [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent signs indicate that American consumers are abandoning travel plans to save expenses, which may serve as an early warning signal of a broader economic slowdown in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Travel Consumption Trends - According to TS Lombard's analysis of TSA data, U.S. airport passenger throughput has declined year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, indicating a negative growth in air traffic [1] - American Airlines and Delta Airlines have seen stock declines of 22.46% and 20.37% respectively, while American Airlines and JetBlue have dropped by 39% and over 40% [4] - In May, U.S. airline travel spending fell by 11% year-on-year, with accommodation spending down approximately 2.5% and air travel spending down 6% [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply declined since the beginning of the year, with spending on travel accommodations and air travel lower across all income groups compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The low-income group has shown a significant reduction in travel spending, particularly after the announcement of large tariffs by President Trump [3] - High-income groups are also tightening their wallets, with a 7 percentage point drop in air travel spending growth for those earning over $150,000 [3] Group 3: Impact on Airlines and Hotels - Major airlines have withdrawn their full-year earnings forecasts for 2025 due to economic uncertainty affecting demand [4] - Hotel groups like Marriott and Hyatt have revised their 2025 profit expectations downward, with Wyndham reducing its RevPAR growth forecast from 2%-3% to -2%-1% [4] - The current environment is expected to test key metrics in the hotel industry, such as occupancy rates and average daily rates [4] Group 4: International Travel and Perception - A report from Oxford Economics predicts a 9% decline in international visitors to the U.S. this year, resulting in an estimated $8.5 billion reduction in spending [7] - Negative perceptions of U.S. trade and immigration policies are contributing to a decrease in international tourist arrivals, particularly from France and Germany [7] - American tourists are also planning fewer long-haul trips abroad, with a 7% decrease in those planning to travel to Europe this summer [7] Group 5: Economic Outlook and Consumer Spending - The increase in tariffs is expected to significantly lower U.S. economic growth rates in 2025, impacting consumer purchasing power and stock markets [8] - Rising inflation and slowing job growth may lead to a decline in real wage growth below 1% by the end of the year, making it difficult for consumers to maintain current spending levels [8] - The depletion of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic has returned bank deposits to 2019 levels, indicating a potential strain on consumer spending [8]