Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is currently supported by a tax and spending bill, with concerns shifting from stagnation to inflation risks [1] - The House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, with a vote of 218 to 214 [1] - Non-farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market despite uncertainties from trade and immigration policies [1][2] Employment Market Insights - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 106,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [2] - Government employment saw a significant increase of 73,000 jobs, particularly in state and local sectors related to education [2][5] - Private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year, primarily driven by the healthcare sector [2][5] Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill extends tax cuts from 2017, benefiting high-income groups while negatively impacting low-income healthcare access [8] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the bill could leave 11.8 million Americans uninsured by 2034 [8] - The bill is projected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, with a maximum effect of 0.6% [8] Long-term Economic Effects - The bill is expected to increase federal debt significantly, with estimates of over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next decade [9] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the bill contradicts recommendations for reducing fiscal deficits in the medium term [9][10] - Concerns are raised about the declining demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which could lead to higher borrowing costs [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July has diminished, with a focus shifting towards inflation management [11] - The labor market's health, as indicated by the non-farm payroll report, provides the Fed with room to maintain current policies [11][12] - Future rate cuts may still be possible, with September being a likely timeframe for potential adjustments [12][13]

Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal, but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels from Iran, which increased exports by 44% to an average of 2.33 million barrels per day[17] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, but this does not guarantee a reversal; the crowded short positions may face pressure if unexpected events occur[28] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with market expectations fully pricing in two rate cuts for 2025[39] - Economic growth forecasts have been revised down, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth expected at 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[45] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2025 set at 3%[45] Group 3: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index saw a slight decline of 0.15% during the week of June 14-21, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.21%[31] - Oil prices rose by 2.09% during the same week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[31] - The risk premium for US stocks remains low, indicating potential vulnerability to rising interest rates and declining economic fundamentals[20]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs COO Waldron highlighted the "significant resilience" of the U.S. economy and consumers [1] - The bond market has correctly shifted its focus towards U.S. fiscal issues [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is demonstrating strong performance despite challenges [1] - Consumer behavior reflects a robust capacity to withstand economic pressures [1] - The bond market's attention to fiscal matters indicates a shift in investor sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs President John Waldron stated that the U.S. economy and consumers are demonstrating significant resilience [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is showing strong performance despite various challenges [1] - Consumer behavior reflects a robust capacity to adapt and sustain spending [1] - Waldron emphasized the importance of this resilience for future economic outlook [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is experiencing a volatile decline with a retracement of bullish sentiment, while silver sees a recovery in risk appetite. The strength analysis shows neutrality for both gold and silver, with price ranges of 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 103 to 99.5 this week. The long - term narrative of gold remains unchanged, but it has entered an overbought zone technically. The reversal of Trump's stance on trade and the Fed's independence has alleviated market concerns and interrupted the upward trend of gold. The first risk point of gold price decline (end of Sino - US trade friction) has slightly eased, increasing the trading difficulty of gold. It is recommended to consider using option tools for trading allocation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Changes**: This week, London gold fell by - 0.86%, and London silver rose by 3.17%. Among domestic varieties, the closing prices and weekly price changes of various gold and silver futures contracts are as follows: for example, the closing price of Shanghai silver 2506 was 8,280 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.47%; the closing price of Shanghai gold 2506 was 787.20 yuan, with a weekly decrease of - 0.48% [3][4]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai silver 2506 increased by 66,534 hands compared to the previous week, and the position decreased by 31,143 hands; the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2506 increased by 321,047 hands, and the position decreased by 29,998 hands. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX silver futures and options increased by 41,063 hands, while those of COMEX gold decreased by 21,132 hands [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.5 million ounces to 41.71 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 49.8%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2 million ounces to 497.91 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 30 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 13.62 tons to 923 tons [35][37][39]. - **Spread Changes**: The overseas spot - futures spreads of gold and silver, domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads all showed certain changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold main contract spread fell to - 11.44 US dollars/ounce, and the domestic gold spot - futures spread was - 2.27 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [9][16]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, and retail and food service sales, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [63]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: The report shows data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [66]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report provides the Fed's rate - cut probability data at different time points, showing that the market expects a high probability of rate cuts in the future [74]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 6.02 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 159.84 tons [46][48]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53].