1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold rose 0.09%, and London silver rose 2.05%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 89.4 the previous week to 87.5, the 10 - year TIPS fell to 2.03%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.44% (2 - year 3.88%), and the US dollar index was 98.46 [5]. - Gold prices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range and rose slightly. The June CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, with the core CPI year - on - year at 2.9% and the overall CPI at 2.7%. The US economy showed resilience after the tariff shock. Gold is difficult to have a trending market, while the gold - silver ratio continued to decline, and silver broke through 9,000 yuan/kg. If it breaks through 9,000 yuan, it may reach around $40 in the third quarter, but there is still downward pressure on prices in the second half of the year due to the weakening demand for silver paste [5]. - The price of silver tends to be stronger relative to gold, and the gold - silver ratio may be frequently repaired. When silver breaks through, there may be a rapid upward movement, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline, with gold also being relatively strong [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Change**: This week, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9,273 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.58%, and the night - session closing price was 4380 yuan, with a night - session decline of 1.68%. The closing price of Silver T + D was 9,211 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.03%. For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 777.02 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 870,782 lots, an increase of 269,669 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 479,676 lots, an increase of 76,720 lots. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2510 was 54,415 lots, a decrease of 12,354 lots, and the open interest was 129,798 lots, a decrease of 159 lots [6]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 92,517 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver increased by 2,324,290 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai gold increased by 4,272 kg, and the inventory of Comex gold increased by 445,088 ounces [6]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The spot - to - futures price difference of silver decreased by 50 yuan, and that of gold increased by 0.61 yuan. The monthly price difference of silver decreased by 4 yuan, and that of gold increased by 0.8 yuan [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index closed at 98.46 this week, with a weekly increase of 0.60%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.18, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [6]. 3.2 Transaction - related Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Position) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Price Difference**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to -$15.55/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was -$10.5/ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract widened to -$0.686/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was -$0.145/ounce [11][14]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Price Difference**: This week, the gold spot - futures price difference was -4.26 yuan/g, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures price difference was -12 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range [17][20]. - **Monthly Price Difference**: This week, the gold monthly price difference was 5.4 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly price difference was 74 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range [24][28]. - **Cross - month Arbitrage Delivery Cost**: The cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 9.30 yuan/g, and that of buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract was 14.57 yuan/g. The cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 119.48 yuan/kg, and that of buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract was 167.88 yuan/kg [31][34]. - **Delivery Fee Direction**: This week, the gold delivery fee at the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. The silver delivery fee was also mainly paid by longs to shorts [35]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.04 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4.36 million ounces to 494.92 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 38.7%. The gold futures inventory increased by 3,129 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 36.15 tons to 1,303 tons [37][39][41]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Positions**: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 0.02 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 21.5 tons [49][51]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 91.8 last week to 90.4 [53]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [55]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rate**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [60]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Data on new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage were presented, showing the overall situation of the non - farm employment market [68][72]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - **Economic and Inflation Surprise Indexes**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The probability of Fed rate cuts in different time periods was presented, showing the market's expectations for Fed monetary policy [77].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by U.S. economic data and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, with a focus on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index as a key indicator for market direction [1][3]. Economic Data Analysis - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing market expectations, while initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, indicating economic resilience [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a rate cut at the end of the month, citing persistent inflation pressures from tariffs [1]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices rebounded significantly, breaking through the 3340 resistance level and reaching around 3355, marking a recovery of over $45 from the week's low of 3310 [3]. - The market's recognition of the rebound is evident, with trading volume increasing by approximately 30% compared to the previous day [3]. Resistance and Support Levels - Primary resistance is identified in the 3365-3370 range, which is crucial for determining if the rebound can transition into a reversal [5]. - Short-term support is established at 3350-3355, while strong support is noted at 3340-3345, which is critical for maintaining bullish momentum [5]. Trading Strategy - The recommended strategy includes focusing on "buying on dips" while cautiously placing small short positions at strong resistance levels to balance risk and opportunity [5].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has retreated ahead of the consumer confidence data release, following a previous rise to a three-and-a-half-week high due to better-than-expected economic indicators [1] Economic Indicators - Recent retail sales data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index exceeded expectations, indicating strong economic resilience in the US [1] - Initial jobless claims were lower than anticipated, further supporting the notion of a robust economy [1] Market Reactions - The market reacted positively after former President Trump denied reports of attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alleviating some concerns [1] - The primary focus for the market is the upcoming release of the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey scheduled for tonight at 22:00 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a "patient" approach in adjusting the benchmark interest rate amid economic uncertainties [1][5] - Collins expresses confidence in the resilience of the current U.S. economy, suggesting that the overall impact of tariffs may not be as severe as previously feared, due to the flexibility of businesses in adjusting profit margins and resilient consumer spending [3][8] - The analysis of the tariff transmission mechanism indicates that while rising import prices may push inflation up, the adverse effects on economic growth and employment may be limited due to the buffering capabilities of businesses and consumers [3][5] Group 2 - The current policy deadlock at the Federal Reserve is highlighted, with a consensus that the likelihood of a rate cut in July is low, as decision-makers await data to assess the actual impact of trade policies on the economy [5][8] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are noted, with differing opinions on the implications of new tariff policies for inflation and the potential for rate cuts [5] - Collins' stance on "active patience" provides the Federal Reserve with a valuable observation window, especially as the tariff suspension period is extended, allowing for a more thorough evaluation of the economic impact [8]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is currently supported by a tax and spending bill, with concerns shifting from stagnation to inflation risks [1] - The House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, with a vote of 218 to 214 [1] - Non-farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market despite uncertainties from trade and immigration policies [1][2] Employment Market Insights - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 106,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [2] - Government employment saw a significant increase of 73,000 jobs, particularly in state and local sectors related to education [2][5] - Private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year, primarily driven by the healthcare sector [2][5] Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill extends tax cuts from 2017, benefiting high-income groups while negatively impacting low-income healthcare access [8] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the bill could leave 11.8 million Americans uninsured by 2034 [8] - The bill is projected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, with a maximum effect of 0.6% [8] Long-term Economic Effects - The bill is expected to increase federal debt significantly, with estimates of over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next decade [9] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the bill contradicts recommendations for reducing fiscal deficits in the medium term [9][10] - Concerns are raised about the declining demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which could lead to higher borrowing costs [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July has diminished, with a focus shifting towards inflation management [11] - The labor market's health, as indicated by the non-farm payroll report, provides the Fed with room to maintain current policies [11][12] - Future rate cuts may still be possible, with September being a likely timeframe for potential adjustments [12][13]

Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal, but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels from Iran, which increased exports by 44% to an average of 2.33 million barrels per day[17] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, but this does not guarantee a reversal; the crowded short positions may face pressure if unexpected events occur[28] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with market expectations fully pricing in two rate cuts for 2025[39] - Economic growth forecasts have been revised down, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth expected at 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[45] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2025 set at 3%[45] Group 3: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index saw a slight decline of 0.15% during the week of June 14-21, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.21%[31] - Oil prices rose by 2.09% during the same week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[31] - The risk premium for US stocks remains low, indicating potential vulnerability to rising interest rates and declining economic fundamentals[20]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs COO Waldron highlighted the "significant resilience" of the U.S. economy and consumers [1] - The bond market has correctly shifted its focus towards U.S. fiscal issues [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is demonstrating strong performance despite challenges [1] - Consumer behavior reflects a robust capacity to withstand economic pressures [1] - The bond market's attention to fiscal matters indicates a shift in investor sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs President John Waldron stated that the U.S. economy and consumers are demonstrating significant resilience [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is showing strong performance despite various challenges [1] - Consumer behavior reflects a robust capacity to adapt and sustain spending [1] - Waldron emphasized the importance of this resilience for future economic outlook [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is experiencing a volatile decline with a retracement of bullish sentiment, while silver sees a recovery in risk appetite. The strength analysis shows neutrality for both gold and silver, with price ranges of 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 103 to 99.5 this week. The long - term narrative of gold remains unchanged, but it has entered an overbought zone technically. The reversal of Trump's stance on trade and the Fed's independence has alleviated market concerns and interrupted the upward trend of gold. The first risk point of gold price decline (end of Sino - US trade friction) has slightly eased, increasing the trading difficulty of gold. It is recommended to consider using option tools for trading allocation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Changes**: This week, London gold fell by - 0.86%, and London silver rose by 3.17%. Among domestic varieties, the closing prices and weekly price changes of various gold and silver futures contracts are as follows: for example, the closing price of Shanghai silver 2506 was 8,280 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.47%; the closing price of Shanghai gold 2506 was 787.20 yuan, with a weekly decrease of - 0.48% [3][4]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai silver 2506 increased by 66,534 hands compared to the previous week, and the position decreased by 31,143 hands; the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2506 increased by 321,047 hands, and the position decreased by 29,998 hands. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX silver futures and options increased by 41,063 hands, while those of COMEX gold decreased by 21,132 hands [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.5 million ounces to 41.71 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 49.8%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2 million ounces to 497.91 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 30 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 13.62 tons to 923 tons [35][37][39]. - **Spread Changes**: The overseas spot - futures spreads of gold and silver, domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads all showed certain changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold main contract spread fell to - 11.44 US dollars/ounce, and the domestic gold spot - futures spread was - 2.27 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [9][16]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, and retail and food service sales, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [63]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: The report shows data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [66]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report provides the Fed's rate - cut probability data at different time points, showing that the market expects a high probability of rate cuts in the future [74]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 6.02 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 159.84 tons [46][48]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53].