Core Insights - Korean retail investors, known for their aggressive trading, are increasingly turning to complex leveraged VIX products amid growing concerns over a valuation bubble in the U.S. stock market [1] - The 2x long VIX futures ETF has attracted approximately $130 million in inflows from Korean investors this year, accounting for about 20% of the global inflows into this ETF [1] - The trend is driven by dual motivations: some investors are hedging their substantial long positions in U.S. stocks, while others are speculating on a market correction [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - The 2x long VIX futures ETF has become one of the most favored U.S.-listed ETFs among Korean investors, ranking seventh in purchase volume in July [1] - Analysts warn that these leveraged volatility products are designed for short-term trading and can lead to significant losses if held long-term [1][2] Group 2: Risks and Misunderstandings - The risks associated with leveraged VIX products are significantly higher than those of ordinary leveraged securities, and many Korean retail investors may not fully understand these risks [2] - These products require continuous rebalancing through futures positions, which can lead to losses even during short-term price increases [2] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - Korean retail investors, referred to as "ants," are drawn to overseas leveraged or inverse securities due to the lack of trading restrictions compared to local derivatives [3] - Popular chat groups on Kakao Talk discuss VIX and leveraged products, indicating a community-driven approach to trading [3] - Some retail investors remain committed to their positions despite losses, reflecting a strong belief in potential market recovery [3]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, with Chairman Powell indicating a likely end to balance sheet reduction in the coming months, and a potential for two rate cuts by the end of the year [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecasts for the US economy to 2.0% and 2.1% for this year and next, respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.9% and 2.0% [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong upward movement in gold prices, with a focus on the support level around $4,175 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to provide some support for oil prices [3] - However, the oil market faces significant pressure from supply-side factors, with US production rising to 13.62 million barrels per day and Saudi Arabia reaching a new production high [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of a more severe oversupply situation than previously anticipated, influenced by trade tensions between major economies [4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for oil prices, with resistance at $60 and support at $57 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment after a previous price surge, with potential for further upward movement if it stabilizes above the 20-day moving average [6] - The focus is on the support level around $4.85 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has tested the 62-day moving average for support and is showing signs of a bullish trend [6] - Attention is on the support level around 47,228 [6]

Core Insights - A mysterious trader on the Hyperliquid platform, known for accurately predicting market crashes, has opened a new leveraged short position worth over $160 million, betting on a decline in Bitcoin prices [1][4][6] - The trader's recent actions have raised concerns in the cryptocurrency market, with speculation that they may possess information not available to the average investor [1][3][6] Group 1: Trader's Actions - On October 12, the trader established a $16 million short position with 10x leverage when Bitcoin was priced at $117,370, setting a liquidation price at $123,500, below Bitcoin's previous all-time high of $126,080 [2][8] - The trader's previous short position reportedly earned them over $192 million, leading to skepticism about the timing of their new trades [3][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Binance founder Zhao Changpeng expressed concern over the legitimacy of the trader's actions, calling for verification of the claims surrounding the trades [1][6] - The market experienced a significant crash, with $19.1 billion in leveraged positions liquidated and over 1.66 million traders suffering losses, while the mysterious trader profited significantly [8][9] Group 3: Speculation and Analysis - Analysts have speculated about the identity of the trader, with some linking the account to Garrett Jin, former CEO of the now-closed BitForex exchange, although this connection has been disputed [6][7] - The precision of the trader's timing, executing a short order just one minute before a major announcement from Trump regarding new tariffs, has led to discussions about insider trading and market fairness [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals has seen significant fluctuations, particularly in nickel futures, which have experienced a notable increase amid mixed supply and demand dynamics in the industry [1] Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve's minutes indicate that most officials believe continued easing may be appropriate this year, while a minority initially supported not lowering interest rates in September [1] Industry Analysis - According to Zhonghui Futures, the political situation in Indonesia has limited impact on nickel ore supply, with a notable divergence in the domestic nickel industry chain. There is significant oversupply pressure in refined nickel, while the supply of nickel sulfate remains relatively tight [1] - The latest domestic pure nickel social inventory is approximately 40,800 tons, showing a slight decrease month-on-month, but long-term supply pressures persist [1] Demand Dynamics - Southwest Futures notes that stainless steel is entering its traditional consumption peak, with increased production; however, demand remains constrained due to weak real estate consumption and sluggish nickel-iron transactions, leading to strong price-cutting psychology among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Nanhua Futures suggests that during the National Day holiday, external nickel prices remained strong, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding Indonesian policies that have increased risk premiums. Expectations for tighter upstream nickel ore shipments and ongoing instability in long-term quotas continue to support the bottom price levels [1] - Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, with nickel sulfate prices under pressure. The demand for stainless steel is expected to enter an adjustment period after reaching seasonal peaks. It is anticipated that domestic prices will follow external trends with slight upward movements post-holiday, but sustained upward momentum is limited, likely resulting in a fluctuating strong pattern [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View - The zinc market has support, with specific data showing various changes in zinc-related indicators [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 21,825 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 3,042 dollars/ton, up 1.25%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 162,377 lots, a decrease of 18,168 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 13,813 lots, an increase of 4,405 lots. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 127,778 lots, a decrease of 14,622 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 224,342 lots, an increase of 1,685 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 67.56 dollars/ton, up 17.56 dollars. The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was -50 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged. The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,178.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167.49 yuan [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory was 57,221 tons, a decrease of 2,043 tons; LME Zinc inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 1,150 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 10,325 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 10,645 tons, a decrease of 204 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil including tax was 4,250 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,455 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [1] News - The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that most officials said it might be appropriate to continue with loose policies this year, while a few might have supported not cutting interest rates in September. There are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts, and the government shutdown has led to delays in the release of multiple economic data, making it more difficult for Fed officials to assess the economic outlook [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report tracks the fundamentals of zinc, showing various price, volume, and inventory data, and mentions news about the Fed's stance on interest - rate cuts and the resulting limited information for economic assessment [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Zinc Market Data - **Price Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,825 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,042 dollars/ton, up 1.25%. The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil (tax - included) was 4,250 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,455 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; zinc oxide (≥99.7%) was 21,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 162,377 lots, down 18,168 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 13,813 lots, up 4,405 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 127,778 lots, down 14,622 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 224,342 lots, up 1,685 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount Data**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; Guangdong 0 zinc premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin 0 zinc premium was - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. LME CASH - 3M premium was 67.56 dollars/ton, up 17.56 dollars/ton; import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory Data**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 57,221 tons, down 2,043 tons; LME zinc inventory was 38,200 tons, down 1,150 tons. LME zinc cancelled warrants were 10,325 tons, down 1,000 tons; LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 10,645 tons, down 204 tons [1] - **Import Profit and Loss Data**: The spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 3,178.54 yuan/ton, down 167.49 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE zinc continuous third contract was - 2,589.37 yuan/ton, down 90.93 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - According to the Fed minutes, most officials believe it may be appropriate to continue easing this year, while a few could have supported not cutting rates in September. The "New Fed Wire" reported that Fed officials were divided on the rate - cut magnitude, and the government shutdown has led to delayed economic data release, limiting the Fed's information for economic assessment [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend intensity is in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend during the National Day holiday, with four consecutive days of gains, despite a slight decline after reaching around 4059 [1] Group 1: Fundamentals - The Federal Reserve has strong expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated by the end of October and a 78% probability of another cut in December, which weakens the dollar's attractiveness [2] - The U.S. government shutdown has increased uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the lack of official economic data [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have previously supported gold prices, while central banks and ETFs have significantly increased their gold holdings, with global ETF inflows reaching $64 billion in 2025 and a record $17.3 billion in September alone [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 88, indicating an overbought condition, bullish sentiment remains strong, supported by multiple favorable factors including continued Fed easing and global economic uncertainty [4] - The daily moving averages indicate a strong bullish structure, with key support levels at approximately 3970 for the 5-day moving average and 3900 for the 10-day moving average [6] - The current price action suggests a potential adjustment phase, with a focus on the resistance level around 4059, while remaining cautious of further upward movement after any short-term corrections [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, predicts that gold prices may exceed $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to the Federal Reserve gradually easing policies amid rising inflation and continued buying of gold by central banks and private funds [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have recently reached record highs, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by discussions around de-dollarization and investor fear of missing out (FOMO) [1] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts due to a possible U.S. government shutdown has led investors to increase their exposure to gold [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Warnings - Melek warns that gold appears to be in an overbought state, indicating that any concerns regarding the pace of Federal Reserve easing or increased market volatility could trigger significant short-term corrections, potentially reversing the gains seen since late summer [1]

Group 1 - The bond market is accustomed to fluctuations, but the significance of these changes is uncertain and may depend on the duration of the trends observed [1][2] - Recent weak ADP employment report, the weakest since March 2023, along with a negative revision to the previous month, has led to market reactions [2] - Two-year yields have dropped more significantly than ten-year yields, indicating a notable shift in the yield curve dynamics [3][6] Group 2 - The decline in two-year yields highlights concerns regarding labor market weakness, which is a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's inflation strategy [4] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve easing have increased, with probabilities exceeding 100% for the next meeting, suggesting a pricing in of more than 25 basis points [5] - The yield curve is steepening as short-term rates have decreased more sharply, indicating a significant market adjustment [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs strategists believe that global stock markets are likely to continue their upward trend until the end of the year, supported by the resilience of the US economy, strong valuations, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] - The strategy team, led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann, has upgraded their stock allocation rating to "overweight" for the next three months, citing strong earnings growth and a lack of recession backdrop as key factors [1] - The team suggests buying on market pullbacks before the end of the year, as recession risks are considered stable and manageable [1] Group 2 - Optimistic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's timely interest rate cuts to avoid recession have driven global stock markets to historical highs, with Goldman Sachs raising its S&P 500 index target to 6800 points, anticipating a further 2% increase in the next three months [3] - Analysts expect a 7.1% year-on-year increase in S&P 500 component earnings for Q3, marking the smallest growth in two years, as the focus shifts to the upcoming earnings season [3] - Goldman Sachs warns of potential risks from growth falling short of expectations or interest rate fluctuations in the short term, while maintaining a "neutral" stance on regional allocation and recommending international asset diversification to mitigate risks [3]