Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic reports, including inflation, employment, and unemployment data, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [2][3][4]. Economic Reports Impact - The absence of these reports comes at a sensitive time for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, as the labor market has deteriorated since late spring, prompting the Fed to implement its first rate cut of the year [3][4]. - The release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for Friday, is uncertain, with economists predicting an addition of 50,000 jobs [4][6]. - If the shutdown continues, the October employment report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) could face significant delays, with the CPI originally set for release on October 15 [4][8]. Historical Context - Historical data from the 2013 government shutdown indicates that delayed reports can be released shortly after government operations resume, but prolonged shutdowns could complicate data collection [5][9]. - If the shutdown lasts beyond 16 days, the October employment report and CPI will be severely affected, with potential delays pushing the employment report past November 7 [6][7]. Economic Implications - A prolonged shutdown could prevent the release of the October CPI, Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), hindering the Fed's ability to assess current inflation trends [9]. - Despite the disruption in data release, historical experience suggests that government shutdowns do not significantly impact the economy itself, although extended shutdowns could increase the risk of economic fractures and misjudgments by the Fed [9][10].

Core Points - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown due to a budget impasse between the two major political parties, with a deadline approaching on October 1 [1][5][6] - The budget process is complicated by the U.S. fiscal year running from October 1 to September 30, leading to annual conflicts over budget approvals [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's operations are not directly affected by a government shutdown, as it operates independently and does not rely on congressional appropriations [10][13] Group 1: Budget Impasse - The Democratic Party is advocating for extended subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, while the Republican Party is focused on budget cuts to healthcare [5] - A vote is scheduled for September 30, and failure to pass the budget will result in a government shutdown starting that evening [6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Operations - The Federal Reserve is set to hold its next meeting on October 28-29, during a potential government shutdown period [8] - Despite a government shutdown, the Federal Reserve staff will continue to work, as it is not a subordinate department of the government [10][13] Group 3: Impact on Economic Data - A government shutdown may delay the release of key economic indicators such as non-farm payroll and CPI data, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [15][16] - The inability to access timely economic data could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates instead of proceeding with anticipated cuts [15][17]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillations [1] - Alumina: Oscillating at the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - The market trends of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are analyzed, with aluminum expected to range - bound, alumina to oscillate at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate decision is in a "four - way battle" situation, and the strong growth of US retail sales in August may influence the Fed's decision [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,975 yuan, down 45 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,712 US dollars, up 8 US dollars. Trading volume and open interest showed different changes compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,979 yuan, up 44 yuan. Trading volume increased significantly, while open interest decreased slightly [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,480 yuan, down 65 yuan. Trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 4,562.01 yuan, up 19.25 yuan. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 3,083 yuan, down 11 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 28 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 170 yuan, up 8 yuan. The three - place inventory totaled 48,620 tons, up 102 tons [1]. Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. - **US Economic News**: The Fed's interest - rate decision has a "four - way battle" situation. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with strong consumer spending potentially influencing the Fed's decision [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Justice has appealed a ruling that temporarily blocks President Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - The DOJ filed a notice to the Washington Federal Appeals Court to overturn a previous ruling by Judge Jia Cobb, which stated that Trump likely did not have "just cause" under the Federal Reserve Act to dismiss Cook [2]. - Cobb's ruling indicated that Trump's attempt to remove Cook without sufficient "just cause" could violate the Federal Reserve Act and that his social media post attempting to dismiss her may have infringed on her constitutional rights [2][3]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve - The case's outcome could affect the composition of the Federal Reserve Board before the significant meeting on September 16-17, which will vote on potential interest rate cuts [3]. - If Cobb's ruling remains in effect, Cook will be able to participate in the meeting, which is crucial for monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 3: Political Context - The White House criticized Cobb's ruling, asserting that Trump acted lawfully in attempting to remove Cook due to credible allegations of mortgage fraud [4]. - Trump's allegations against Cook include claims that she misrepresented properties in Michigan and Georgia to secure better loan terms, with additional claims regarding a property in Massachusetts [4]. - The struggle over Cook's position has become a focal point for Trump's efforts to exert greater control over the Federal Reserve, as he has been advocating for interest rate cuts [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of gold prices during the non-farm payroll (NFP) data release, highlighting the dual nature of opportunities and risks for investors in this context [3]. Group 1: Impact of Non-Farm Data on Gold Prices - Non-farm data directly reflects the U.S. economic situation and influences gold price movements: positive data increases expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, strengthening the dollar and suppressing gold prices; negative data raises risk aversion, providing an opportunity for gold to rise [3]. - The upcoming non-farm data is particularly sensitive as it relates to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts in September, potentially triggering significant price movements in gold [3]. Group 2: Advantages of Leading Global Platform - Leading Global offers three core advantages that create a "safety barrier" for non-farm investment: 1. Rapid trading response to lock in key price points, utilizing the MT5 trading system for efficient order execution and 24/7 trading support [4]. 2. Comprehensive strategy support throughout the trading cycle, including pre-release reports on ADP data and unemployment claims, real-time expert analysis during the data release, and post-event summaries to help investors learn from their experiences [5]. 3. Low entry barriers for investment, allowing individuals to start trading gold with as little as 70 yuan, catering to various investment scales, and offering demo accounts for beginners to familiarize themselves with the trading process [6]. Group 3: Trust in Leading Global - A professional gold trading platform is essential for investors to navigate market volatility and achieve returns, with Leading Global's over ten years of experience in precious metals trading providing a stable trading system, professional strategy support, and comprehensive risk control [7].

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing significant turmoil due to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shocking revision of employment data, which cut 258,000 jobs from the previous two months [1] - The BLS report revealed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, far below the expected 104,000, marking the lowest growth since October 2024 [1] - The drastic downward revision of employment data has raised serious doubts about the reliability of the statistics, leading to accusations of data manipulation by some traders [1] Group 2 - The market reaction has been severe, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 1,000 points, European markets also declining, and the U.S. dollar index falling below 100, indicating a rapid loss of confidence in the U.S. economy [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged from 40% to nearly 90%, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Concerns about a potential recession are heightened by rising inflation, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index reaching a new high of 2.8% since February [1] Group 3 - Former President Trump has intensified the situation by harshly criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, calling for an immediate rate cut to 1% to reduce interest payments on the national debt, which has reached $36 trillion [3] - Powell faces a challenging situation where cutting rates could stimulate employment but may also exacerbate inflation due to high tariffs imposed during the Trump administration [4] - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is evident, with two officials voting against maintaining interest rates, arguing that the current policy rate of 4.25%-4.5% is too high and exceeds the neutral level of around 3% [5] Group 4 - Powell is under pressure from multiple fronts, including ongoing attacks from Trump, significant internal dissent within the Fed, and growing market fears of a recession [7] - The recent increase in tariffs on Canadian imports, from 25% to 35%, along with punitive tariffs on goods circumventing tariffs, has further raised living costs in the U.S. and intensified inflationary pressures [7] - The decision to maintain interest rates was based on uncertainties regarding the impact of tariffs, but the substantial revision of employment data has undermined this assumption [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. June PCE price index year-on-year increased from 2.4% to 2.6%, suggesting a slight rebound in inflation, which may lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious in its decision to restart interest rate cuts [2] - The June core PCE price index year-on-year remained stable at 2.8%, while the month-on-month index rose from 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The article suggests that despite the inflation rebound, the U.S. economy is facing weak growth and potential further decline, which could lead to negative impacts if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for an extended period [2] Group 2 - The author expresses skepticism about a significant rebound in U.S. inflation, emphasizing that the greater risk lies in economic downturns, which could render any accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve ineffective [2] - A severe deterioration in the U.S. economy could lead to increased volatility in the stock market and have ripple effects on major global economies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Economic Outlook - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current interest rate level is appropriate amid uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [1] - Analysts noted that Powell's hawkish stance has reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with the probability dropping to 45.2%, a decrease of 18.1 percentage points from the previous day [1] - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity, changing its language from "economic activity continues to expand" to "economic activity growth has slowed" [4] Group 2: Economic Data and Analysis - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.5% and significantly improving from Q1's -0.5% [5] - Analysts suggest that the GDP rebound is more a result of statistical adjustments and short-term policy effects rather than a substantial improvement in economic fundamentals [7] - The private domestic final purchases (PDFP), a core GDP indicator, only grew by 1.2%, indicating that the GDP growth was driven more by a decline in imports rather than strong internal economic growth [7] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Analysts believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be slower and longer-lasting, potentially delaying the Fed's rate cut decisions [4] - There is a consensus within the Fed regarding the need for a rate cut this year, but there is disagreement on the timing based on economic signals [8] - Two Fed governors voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors expressed differing opinions on rate decisions [8]

Employment Data Insights - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, an increase of 3,000 from May, marking the second-highest monthly gain of the year[3] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, down from a three-month plateau[3] - The average hourly wage growth slowed by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a lack of strong upward pressure on wages[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, the lowest level in 2023, reflecting a continued decrease in labor supply[3] - Government employment surged by 73,000 in June, the highest increase in 15 months, while private sector job growth showed signs of cooling[3] - Job additions in the education and healthcare sectors were 51,000 and 20,000, respectively, both lower than the previous month[3] Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The necessity for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has significantly decreased due to strong employment data[3] - Future inflation levels will be influenced by fiscal stimulus effects and tariff directions, potentially leading to a steeper inflation trajectory[3] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" aims to stabilize consumer demand and enhance domestic manufacturing, which could tighten the labor market[3] Risks and Considerations - The potential for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts remains, as the labor market shows mixed signals[4] - The dollar index is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of the year, influenced by the evolving economic landscape[3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintains flexibility regarding interest rate decisions, indicating a shift in factors influencing potential rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Powell avoided a direct question about the possibility of a rate cut in July, suggesting that it is inappropriate to overly focus on this month's decision [1] - Recent comments from Powell and others indicate a subtle change in tone, moving away from an immediate need for rate cuts [1] - Speculation arose that significant price increases post-tariff removal might necessitate a substantial weakening in the labor market before considering rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The recent pause on tariffs and early inflation readings have not shown meaningful impacts, leading Powell to suggest that if inflation concerns are not severe, rate cuts may be reconsidered [1]