智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，7月美国非农新增数据大幅低于预期，且前值出现断层式下修，反映出劳动力市场需求侧降温幅度快于供给 侧，其中政府部门从贡献项转为拖累项，制造业和商业服务均表现疲弱。数据发布后，海外市场的美联储9月降息预期回归，美元指数反弹势能中断、回 落至98.9附近水平。美债收益率曲线出现明显下行，对美联储政策敏感的美债2年期收益率下行22.6BP至3.7%附近水平，美股三大指数均现调整。 招商证券主要观点如下： 事件：2025年8月1日，美国劳工统计局(BLS)发布：2025年7月非农就业人数新增7.3万人，前值14.7万人;失业率录得4.2%，前值4.1%。 1)7月非农新增7.3万人，低于市场所预期的10.4万人，而且前月数据大幅下修，6月非农新增数据从初值的14.7万人急剧下修至1.4万人，5月数据从14.4万 人再度下修至1.9万人，合计下修高达25.8万人。 2)分行业来看，制造业、商业服务和政府部门均表现疲弱。政府部门录得-1.0万人(前值1.1万人)，其中联邦政府降幅扩大至-1.2万人(前值-0.9万人)，仍反 映出BLS此前将持续领取遣散费人员计入就业人数的滞后影响；州 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the impact of weak employment data on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, increasing the pressure for a rate cut in September [1][4]. - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000 [2]. - The revisions of previous months' employment data revealed a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined, indicating a deteriorating labor market [2][3]. Group 2 - The unemployment rate slightly increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, while the labor participation rate is declining, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][3]. - Economic uncertainties, including tariff policies and immigration restrictions, are contributing to the slowdown in job creation and hiring [3]. - Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including CPI reports, to assess the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which have raised concerns about broader conflicts in the Middle East [2][3] - As of June 13, 2025, the gold ETF holdings increased to 940.49 tons, reflecting a rise of 2.58 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The recent U.S. inflation data has been weak, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which enhances the attractiveness of gold as an investment [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its forecast that strong structural buying from central banks will drive gold prices to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [3] - Bank of America also predicts that gold prices will rise to $4,000 per ounce within the next 12 months, reflecting a bullish outlook on gold [3] - The gold market experienced fluctuations, starting at $3,315.10 and reaching a high of $3,447, with a closing price of $3,432.60, indicating strong market activity [4]