回顾三季度，资本市场走势更多由宏观预期主导，展望四季度，市场或围绕政策与经济形势验证进行交 易。债市三季度对基本面反应钝化，更多跟随股市波动。从四季度节奏来看，10月上、中旬，政策利多 可能持续驱动股牛，这一阶段债市可能震荡偏弱运行。之后将进入政策空窗期，市场或进入经济验证阶 段，股市上涨节奏可能放缓，对债市的压制或减弱。并且经过三季度调整，债市估值进入合理区间，配 置性价比有所回升。如果宽货币预期升温，届时债市有望出现修复行情。不过鉴于年初对宽货币预期抢 跑较多，即便出现10BP降息，债券利率也较难突破前低。四季度国债期货可能先抑后扬，预计10年期 国债利率运行区间在1.6%～1.9%，10年期国债期货主要运行区间在107～109.5点。 （文章来源：期货日报） 三季度，受"反内卷"交易、风险偏好回升、基金赎回费新规等多重因素压制，债市震荡下行。7月，"反 内卷"信号释放，通胀升温和需求端增量政策预期带动商品和股市共振上行，债市承压下行。8月，"反 内卷"交易降温，商品市场震荡回落，但是股市延续强势上涨，在股债"跷跷板"效应下国债转为下行， 价格中枢进一步下移。9月，随着股市转入高位震荡，叠加国债估值回落， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货延续低位震荡 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡整理，小幅下跌。政策面，央行三季度例会会提出 "建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济 金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏"。传递出货 币政策灵活发力的信号，短期内全面降息的可能性下降，后续关注货币政策 与财政政策的协同效应。不过由于 8 月经济数据表现偏弱说明内需有效需 求不足的问题仍存，9 月美联储启动降息使得人民币汇率端压力大大减小， 未来货币政策偏宽松的可能性较高，国债期货下方具有较强支撑。总的来 说，短期内上行动能与下行空间均较为有限，预计短期内国债期货以低位震 荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may break through its downward space in the fourth quarter. After experiencing multiple "stress tests" in the third quarter, the bond market has shown strong resilience. With the improvement of the bond market's adaptability to the strengthening of the equity market and the decline of the excessive trading of long - term bonds, a more rational pricing logic may dominate the market again, and the stable allocation demand will become the "ballast stone" for the interest rate to decline. The interest rate is expected to be in a "moderate" downward state [8][46]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Can the Bond Market Break Through the Sideways Trend in the Fourth Quarter? 3.1.1 The Bond Market Fluctuated Widely in September, with Bulls and Bears in a Fierce Battle and a Wavy Uptrend - The valuation yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has basically completed the anchoring to the "new bond". The spread between the new bond (250016) and the old bond (250011) is basically stable at 5 - 8BP, and the yield - to - maturity compensation due to value - added tax is about 2.8% - 4.5% [1][11]. - The capital interest rate fluctuated significantly due to the cross - quarter effect, and the central level increased to some extent. The increase in the central level of the capital interest rate led to an upward trend in the bond market interest rate and a compression of the Carry space, resulting in bond market selling pressure [1][14]. - The bond cashing demand of the bank's OCI account is one of the factors pressuring the bond market. From September 1st to 26th, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were the main sellers in the bond market [2][18]. - Regulatory policy adjustments and the increasing expectation of restarting treasury bond trading also drove the bond market trend. The "new rule" led to a rapid correction in the bond market in early September, while the increasing expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading supported the rebound in mid - September [2][21]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market May Break Through the Downward Space in the Fourth Quarter - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds weakened in September. If the equity market turns into a slow - bull pattern in the fourth quarter, the suppression on the bond market from the equity market may ease [3][23]. - The price level is still in the repair stage, with PPI bottoming out and rising, but CPI has not shown signs of recovery. If the economic recovery slope is lower than expected or Sino - US economic and trade relations deteriorate unexpectedly, there is still a possibility of another interest rate cut this year [5][28]. - From the supply side, the fourth quarter is usually the "off - season" for government bond supply, but attention should be paid to the possible advance issuance of the special bonds for replacing hidden debts in 2026. Even if the supply pressure increases, the impact on the market may be relatively controllable, and the central bank may use open - market operations for hedging [6][33]. - From the demand side, even if the "new rule" is implemented in the fourth quarter, its impact on the bond market is likely to be short - term and frictional, not a trend - based decline in demand. The demand from core bond - market allocators such as wealth management and insurance remains strong [7][40]. 3.2 Important Matters - The net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan in September. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a maturity scale of 300 billion yuan in September [48]. 3.3 Money Market 3.3.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From September 22nd to 26th, the central bank injected a total of 2.4674 trillion yuan through reverse repurchase operations, with a maturity of 1.8268 trillion yuan, and the net injection was 640.6 billion yuan. It is expected that 516.6 billion yuan of base money will be recalled from September 29th to 30th [50]. - The inter - bank liquidity was tight first and then loose last week, mainly due to the central bank's protection of liquidity. As of September 26th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by - 16.49BP, 3.78BP, - 14.62BP, and 2.17BP respectively compared with September 19th [54]. 3.3.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit showed a net outflow, with a net financing scale of - 188.79 billion yuan last week. The issuing scale of state - owned banks was the largest, but they also had the largest net outflow [59][63]. - The issuing interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit at all maturities showed an upward trend [64][67]. 3.4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply of interest - rate bonds was relatively small last week. The total actual issuance was 60.834 billion yuan, with a maturity of 9.2 billion yuan and a net financing of 51.634 billion yuan [68]. - In the secondary market, the bond market sentiment was relatively weak last week, showing an upward trend in the shock, and the curve shape became steeper. The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond and 10 - year CDB bond active bonds decreased, and the liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased [68][77]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally in August but was at a seasonal low year - on - year. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased last week, with an average of about 7.27 trillion yuan [94][99]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks increased their purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years and 5 - 10 years; rural commercial banks continued to sell but with a reduced intensity; insurance institutions continued to increase their holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds sold significantly [104]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is around 1.85% [107]. 3.6 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and wire rod futures decreased, while those of cathode copper, cement, and glass increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the BDI index increased [117]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased, and the vegetable wholesale price increased. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased [117]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.12 last week [117].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have seen divergences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation, reducing market risk appetite. Short - term index faces uncertainty due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - run, with policy support for the capital market unchanged, the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in Q4, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market may oscillate under the intertwined situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and if the stock market cools and allocation forces increase, the bond market may recover [7]. - For precious metals, short - term interest rate cut expectations are frustrated, but the Fed's mid - term easing pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially paying attention to the rising opportunity of silver prices [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to have a certain degree of support in price, with some showing a trend of shock - strengthening or shock - running, mainly affected by factors such as Fed interest rate policies, trade situations, and industry supply - demand [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are under downward pressure due to weak demand, and the iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens after the festival. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, and manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [31][33][39]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is weak in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term; crude oil has short - term uncertainties; and methanol's fundamentals are improving [52][54][56]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, the pig price is weak, the egg price may stabilize after a small decline. Bean and rapeseed meal are under short - term pressure, and the price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term [74][76][81]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. The NDRC plans to build a new computing power network infrastructure. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry. The SASAC held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises. The new energy storage market is short of cores [2]. - **期指基差比例**: IF, IC, and IM show different negative basis ratios for different contract periods, while IH has positive basis ratios in some cases [3]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry [5]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 4115 billion yuan [6]. - **策略观点**: The bond market may oscillate in Q4, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond relationship [7]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: Domestic and foreign precious metals had different price changes, and the positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly [8]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to go long on dips, especially for silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: Copper prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis. Import losses and refined - waste spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [13]. - **策略观点**: Aluminum prices have strong support below [14]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak [16]. Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices increased slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong [17]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices oscillated, with changes in spot prices and costs [18]. - **策略观点**: Short - term observation is recommended, and long on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [18]. Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices oscillated, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [19]. - **策略观点**: Tin prices may continue to oscillate, and observation is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: Carbonate lithium prices had different changes, and the price of lithium concentrate was stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Carbonate lithium futures may oscillate within a range [22]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [23]. - **策略观点**: Observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [25]. - **策略观点**: Stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short - term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **策略观点**: Futures may be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [30]. - **策略观点**: Steel prices may be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: Iron ore prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **策略观点**: Short - term iron ore prices may be strong, but may adjust downward after the festival if downstream demand weakens [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: Glass and soda ash prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [34][36]. - **策略观点**: Glass can be considered slightly bullish in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [35][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [38]. - **策略观点**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend, and manganese - silicon may have potential driving factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices had a small increase, with changes in inventory and basis [41][44]. - **策略观点**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon prices may decline in the short - term [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: Rubber prices were weak, with factors such as expected state reserve sales and weather affecting the market [47]. - **策略观点**: Mid - term bullish, short - term weak, and observation is recommended after the festival [52]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: Crude oil and related product prices increased, with changes in inventory [53]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainties exist, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and observe [54]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: Methanol prices had small changes, with changes in basis [55]. - **策略观点**: The fundamentals are improving, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [56]. Urea - **行情资讯**: Urea prices declined slightly, with changes in basis [57]. - **策略观点**: Low - valuation and weak - driving, long positions can be considered on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [58]. - **策略观点**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and observation is recommended [59]. PVC - **行情资讯**: PVC prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [60]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: Ethylene glycol prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **策略观点**: In the short - term, inventory may be low, but it will accumulate in the fourth quarter, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [63]. PTA - **行情资讯**: PTA prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is complex, and observation is recommended [65]. Para - Xylene - **行情资讯**: PX prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [66]. - **策略观点**: PX may accumulate inventory, and observation is recommended [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: PE prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [68]. - **策略观点**: PE prices may oscillate upward [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: PP prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [70]. - **策略观点**: PP is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high [71]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price fluctuated slightly, with most areas seeing a decline [73]. - **策略观点**: The pig price may be weak, and short - term short positions on near - month contracts and reverse spreads are recommended [74]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was stable with a small decline in some areas [75]. - **策略观点**: The egg price may stabilize after a small decline, and short - term observation is recommended [76]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The price of US soybeans oscillated, and the domestic bean meal price was stable. The supply - demand situation was complex [77]. - **策略观点**: Short - term pressure exists, and in the medium - term, the market is expected to oscillate [78]. Edible Oils - **行情资讯**: The price of edible oils rebounded, and the supply - demand situation in Malaysia and Indonesia had different changes [79][80]. - **策略观点**: The price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term, and long positions can be considered on dips [81]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar price declined slightly, and the supply - demand situation in major producing areas is expected to change [82]. - **策略观点**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, and observation is recommended before the festival [83]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton price declined, and the supply - demand situation was complex [84][85]. - **策略观点**: The cotton price is affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating mentioned in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The monetary policy has added the statement of "continuous efforts and timely intensification", emphasizing counter - cyclical adjustment, maintaining ample liquidity and reducing social financing costs. The economic data in July and August were lower than expected. From January to August 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from decline to an increase of 0.9% year - on - year, with the single - month profit growth rate in August soaring to 20.4%. The consumer side showed differentiation this week, indicating cautious consumer sentiment. Against the backdrop of economic pressure, there are still expectations of monetary policy easing. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward, and the 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [2][10][80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - **Central Bank's Monetary Policy Meeting**: The third - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee in 2025 added "continuous efforts and timely intensification" to the overall description of monetary policy. It removed "more risk hidden dangers" in the domestic economic description and "continuous" from the description of prices. The new statement "implement and refine the moderately loose monetary policy" was added, and "deepening the structural reform of the financial supply - side" was removed [12]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year - on - year decline of 1.7% to an increase of 0.9%. In August, the single - month profit growth rate rebounded significantly to 20.4%, driven by policy effects, low - base support, and industry structure optimization. However, nearly half of the industries still had negative year - on - year profit growth [18][19]. - **US Tariff and PCE Data**: The US will impose a new round of high - tariffs on multiple imported products starting from October 1. The US PCE price index in August increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, both in line with expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in October rose above 80% [4][22]. 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data - **Consumption**: As of September 21, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 9.4% and 5.8% year - on - year respectively. As of September 19, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 10.2% year - on - year, while the total retail sales decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [24][28]. - **Transportation**: As of September 21, the weekly container throughput at ports increased by 12.9% year - on - year, postal express pick - up volume increased by 19.4% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic increased by 20.7% year - on - year. As of September 27, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [34][39][41]. - **Industrial Operating Rates**: As of September 24, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points year - on - year. As of September 25, the average asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate increased by 7.5 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year [44][46]. - **Real Estate**: As of September 27, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 3.6% year - on - year. As of September 19, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities increased by 78.4% year - on - year [51][53]. - **Prices**: As of September 26, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 25.0% year - on - year and 2.2% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 21.2% year - on - year and increased by 2.6% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 7.5% year - on - year and 1.9% compared with 4 weeks ago, while the average spot price of iron ore increased by 8.4% year - on - year and 2.4% compared with 4 weeks ago [54][60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - **Short - term Interest Rates**: On September 28, the overnight Shibor was 1.31%, down 9.90BP from September 23. On September 26, R001, DR001, and IBO001 decreased, while R007, DR007, and IBO007 increased compared with September 22 [63]. - **Bond Yields**: On September 26, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.39%/1.62%/1.88%/2.22% respectively, with changes of flat/+0.5BP/+0.3BP/+1.8BP compared with September 19. The yields of China Development Bank bonds and local government bonds also showed different changes [68][70]. - **Foreign Exchange**: On September 26, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.12/7.13, up 24/220 pips compared with September 19 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior The median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds estimated on September 26 was about 4.5 years, down about 0.04 years from last week. The median and average durations of medium - and long - term credit bond funds estimated on September 26 were about 2.9 years, down about 0.2 years from last week [76][79]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although the bond market may be disturbed by the stock market's risk appetite in the short term, its allocation value is prominent supported by the fundamentals. The 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [80][83].

不过央行的决策显然有着多维度的考量，其中商业银行息差压力是重要因素。当前银行业净息差已降至1.45%左右的近二十年低位，而活期储蓄利率仅 0.05%，进一步下调空间极为有限。 同时，三年期、五年期储蓄利率已不足1.5%，若继续降息，可能引发储蓄资金集中流动，也需兼顾资本流动的稳定性。 近日，市场期待的新一轮降息并未如期而至，中国人民银行授权公布的贷款市场报价利率（LPR）显示，1年期与5年期以上品种分别维持在3.0%和3.5%不 变，这已是LPR连续四个月保持稳定。 此前的9月17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率区间下调至4.00%-4.25%，这是2025年美联储首次降息，多家研究机构预测四季度10月、12月还 可能再有两次降息，标志着其新一轮宽松周期的开启。 在美联储降息、国内物价偏弱且房地产市场调整压力较大的背景下，市场普遍期待国内跟进降息，既为维持人民币汇率相对稳定创造条件，也为经济恢复注 入动力。 下载 The State Character of School 16 200 16 1. W KX Diale - 11-24 这一思路与政府工作报告中"盘活存量用地、收购存量商品房"的部署 ...

在9月政策会议上，美联储正式重启降息周期，这一决策被TSLombard全球宏观主管达里奥・珀金斯视 为"错误的开端"。在周四发布的客户报告中，珀金斯明确指出："美联储决策层对劳动力市场潜在放缓的担 忧，是其在关税可能推升通胀至目标上方的背景下，仍坚持重启降息的核心原因，但这种担忧被显著夸大 了。" 对于2025年通胀降温的现象，珀金斯表示这并非经济内生的"通胀缓解"，而是源于经济体系中的"显著负面 供给冲击"。 当前美国经济的"韧性叙事"已成为多数预测机构的共识，但宏观研究公司TSLombard却抛出了截然不同的 判断，美国经济或正在走向类似上世纪70年代滞胀危机前的通胀反弹通道。 滞胀作为经济领域的"棘手难题"，核心矛盾在于经济增长陷入停滞的同时，通胀率却持续高企。高通胀会 直接限制美联储的政策空间，在典型衰退中，央行可通过降息释放流动性、刺激经济，但滞胀环境下，降 息可能进一步推升通胀，陷入"政策两难"。 目前主流预测机构普遍将滞胀视为"边缘风险"，支撑这一判断的核心依据是近期通胀数据趋于温和，且经 济增长仍保持强劲势头，两者形成的"良性组合"削弱了滞胀担忧。 他强调，这种需求疲软是"暂时性的"，2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy meeting indicates a shift towards maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, moving away from aggressive incremental policy implementations [1][6]. Economic Outlook - The meeting acknowledged a complex external environment with weakening global economic growth, increased trade barriers, and uncertain inflation trends, while noting that China's economy is progressing steadily despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2][4]. Price Trends - The description of prices changed from "continuously low" to "low," reflecting recent positive signals in price data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after eight months of decline, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month but showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [4][6]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The meeting emphasized the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments, focusing on the effective implementation of existing policies and enhancing the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies to support economic stability and reasonable price levels [5][13]. Structural Policy Tools - There is a new focus on using structural monetary policy tools to support small and micro enterprises and stabilize foreign trade, indicating a commitment to targeted financial support [10]. Long-term Interest Rates - The meeting continued to highlight the importance of monitoring long-term interest rates, with a consistent approach over the past seven quarters, reflecting ongoing concerns about the bond market dynamics [10][11]. Financial Market Stability - The meeting reiterated the importance of maintaining stability in the foreign exchange, capital, and real estate markets, with specific measures to enhance market resilience and prevent excessive fluctuations [13].

近日，俄罗斯银行（央行）董事会决定将关键利率下调100个基点，降至年化17%。当前俄罗斯经济继 续回归平衡增长轨道，消费者价格指数（CPI）增速有所放缓。俄罗斯银行表示，将继续维持货币条件 的必要紧缩程度。此次降息1个百分点，既是对市场降息呼声的回应，也体现出央行在货币政策方面的 保守与审慎态度。 俄罗斯银行行长纳比乌琳娜在新闻发布会上指出，自年初以来，通货膨胀已显著下降，外部需求和经济 活动也有所放缓。这为利率下调设定了一个总体方向。数据显示，俄罗斯的年通货膨胀率已连续第5个 月下降，8月CPI降至2024年4月以来的最低水平。但总体而言，价格增长仍远高于央行设定的4%目标。 俄罗斯央行实行的严格货币政策产生了较为显著的抗通胀效果。纳比乌琳娜表示，基础通胀指标近几个 月一直保持在4%至6%的区间内。央行实施的货币政策已促使基础通胀自年初以来显著下降，但仍需时 间以巩固通胀下降趋势。 俄罗斯总统普京在近日的经济问题会议上表示，通胀回落趋势已相当明显。7月份消费者价格指数同比 上升8.8%，8月份涨幅为8.1%。尽管当前通胀下降的幅度低于政府和俄罗斯央行的预测，但降低通胀的 努力正在取得成效。普京指出，维持适度 ...

据韩联社9月14日报道，现代经济研究院14日发表报告书，预测今年韩国经济增长率为1.0%，比四 月预测值提升0.3个百分点，预计明年的经济增长率为1.9%。研究院认为，今年下半年韩政府积极的财 政政策、经济心理恢复以及出口预期转好等将成为经济转换的动力。从趋势来看，预计韩国经济明年上 半年同比增长2.3%，下半年同比增长1.5%，将出现上高下低的趋势。 研究院预测，以明年政府预算案为基准，积极扩张的财政将对景气恢复产生积极影响。但有人担心 明年的货币政策可能会使财政政策效果减半。韩国央行比起核心经济变数"增长和物价"更重视次要变 数"房地产市场和家庭负债"，因此有可能维持消极应对经济的政策基调。 研究院强调，2026年很可能成为韩国经济重新回归潜在增长水平的一年。为了抓住这次艰难创造的 经济恢复机会，需要运用与财政政策扩张基调相吻合的货币政策，还要扩大企业投资。 （原标题：现代经济研究院将今年韩国经济增长率预测值提高至1.0%） ...