2025 年野村中国投资年会已在深圳圆满落幕，野村经济学家、分析师和策略师为投资者、企业家深入剖 析市场动态，解读热点话题。请点击以下视频，查看野村主要发言嘉宾就市场变化、宏观经济走势、 AI 浪潮以及货币政策调整等核心议题进行的精彩分享和深入探讨。 Arvind Shah 野村亚洲（除日本外）股票研究销售主管 苏博文 Rob Subbarama 野村全球宏观研究主管及全 球市场研究部 联席主管 大家好。很高兴再次来到深圳，参加野村中国投资年会。今年是第17届中国投资论坛，我们看 到全球宏观讨论会场座无虚席。 我们在会上谈到了今年经济在面临来自美国关税和地缘政治的诸多冲击下，展现出韧性。展望 未来，我们还讨论到人工智能在推动经济体发展中变得越来越重要。我们的确也看到了日益增 长的分歧。我们预计美国2026年GDP增长2.4%、欧元区增长1.2%、日本增长0.6%。 但有趣的是，我们认为货币政策也将会大相径庭。我们认为美联储明年将再降息三次、欧洲央 行已经停止降息，日本央行将逆势而行在明年一月加息。 最后我想说，财政政策在减少全球预算赤字方面进展甚微。我们知道收入不平等在加剧，国 防、养老、气候变化、灾害方面的 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 近期研究报告 《从资管信托新规，看银行理财变局— — 机 构 行 为 专 题 二 20251120 》 - 2025.11.21 固收周报 政府债供给压力持续 ——2026 年展望系列三 发布时间：2025-11-24 研究所 ⚫ 2025 年政府债供给显著放量，发行节奏前置 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 2025 年赤字率调增至 4%，政府债供给显著放量。结合发行计划 看，截至 11 月底，2025 年政府债累计发行约 24.08 万亿，净融资约 13.23 万亿。其中，国债累计发行 14.10 万亿，净融资 6.14 万亿，达 到全年发行进度的 93%；地方政府债累计发行 9.98 万亿，净融资 7.09 万亿,已完成全年进度的 97%。预计 12 月国债发行 1.92 万亿，净融资 4305 亿；地方债发行 3146 亿，净融资 1959 亿。测算 2025 年全年政 府 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market has a certain degree of short - term uncertainty due to previous rises and overseas market adjustments, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with different support and pressure factors [13][15][18]. - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. - The energy and chemical market shows different trends, with some products recommended for long - term strategies and others for short - term caution [56][58][60]. - The agricultural product market also has various trends, such as short - term weak operation for some and shock - based operation for others [81][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US government may allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China; the SASAC held a central enterprise specialization integration promotion meeting; Changxin Storage released new DDR5 products; a Goldman Sachs partner said the US stock market may continue to sell off [2]. - **Strategy View**: After previous rises and influenced by overseas market adjustments, the short - term index is uncertain, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The main contracts of TL, T, and TF decreased on Friday, while TS remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the US PMI data showed mixed results. The central bank conducted a net injection of 1622 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold prices rose slightly, and silver prices fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported. Fed officials' "dovish" remarks supported precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded after a decline, with LME copper inventory decreasing and domestic spot premiums rising [12]. - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with strong support at the bottom [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline, with domestic and overseas inventory changes and improved downstream procurement sentiment [14]. - **Strategy View**: The aluminum price is expected to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment, with strong support [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the zinc industry still in an over - supply cycle [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with relatively loose supply [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price continued to fall, with changes in spot premiums and cost [20]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell slightly, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The safety situation in the DRC may affect tin mines [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price fell, with changes in spot and futures prices [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to potential disturbances and the reference range of the main contract [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with attention to supply - side policies [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and cost [30]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with an over - supply situation [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [31]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term [33]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [37]. - **Strategy View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate within a range, with strong supply and stable demand [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the soda ash price fell. There were changes in inventory and basis [40][41]. - **Strategy View**: The glass price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the soda ash price is expected to be weakly volatile [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price fell, and the ferrosilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price, and to look for opportunities to rebound [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the polysilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [46][49]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate within a wide range [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and adjusted, with changes in tire factory start - up rates and inventory [52][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a bullish strategy with stop - loss settings and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and there were changes in refined oil prices and inventory [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [59]. - **Strategy View**: The methanol price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with high inventory pressure [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [61]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was unchanged, and the styrene price rose. There were changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages, with cost and demand factors [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price was unchanged, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [67]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA price is expected to be affected by supply, demand, and valuation factors [71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The para - xylene price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [72]. - **Strategy View**: The para - xylene price is expected to have a risk of valuation correction, with high supply and low demand [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with cost and demand factors [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [77]. - **Strategy View**: The PP price is expected to be affected by cost and demand factors, and may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pig - **Market Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with normal supply and limited demand [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract or do reverse spreads [81]. Egg - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with partial increases, with reduced inventory pressure and increased replenishment willingness [82]. - **Strategy View**: The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound in the medium term [83][84]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean meal price was stable, with changes in import cost, inventory, and demand [85]. - **Strategy View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on crushing margins [86]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The edible oil price fell, with weak palm oil export data and high supply [87]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil price is recommended to be viewed with an oscillatory perspective, and turn to a bullish strategy if production decreases [88][89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price fell, with an expected global surplus in the 2025/26 season and increased imports [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [92][93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with no strong driving force [94].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying its fiscal policy efforts as the year-end approaches, with a focus on advancing the planning and issuance of special bonds for 2026 to support key projects and economic recovery [1][2][3] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Special Bonds - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue issuing new local government debt limits for 2026 to ensure funding for major projects and bolster economic recovery [1] - Various regions, such as Hubei and Jiangxi, have initiated the planning and review of special bond projects for 2026, focusing on areas like education, healthcare, and urban infrastructure [1][2] - As of November 23, the total issuance of new special bonds this year has reached approximately 42,315 billion yuan, achieving 96% of the annual target of 44,000 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Importance of Project Planning - Experts emphasize the necessity of early planning for special bond investment projects, particularly those aimed at urban renewal and improving living conditions, to ensure a stable economic outlook and high-quality development [2] - The proactive approach of local governments in preparing for 2026 special bond projects reflects a strong commitment to stabilizing investment and expanding domestic demand [2][3] - The successful issuance of special bonds this year has played a crucial role in stabilizing the macro economy and enhancing public welfare, laying a solid foundation for future fiscal policy continuity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on promoting stable growth, improving people's livelihoods, and managing risks under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a projected narrow fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% and new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion yuan [1][5][43]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift towards a "people-oriented" expenditure structure, which is reflected in the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since July [1][5]. - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with tight constraints still present. The income from individual income tax and securities transactions has improved, while land transfer income has seen a narrowing decline [5][11]. - On the expenditure side, there is a moderate expansion in total fiscal spending, with a structural shift towards social welfare. The central government's financial support is increasing, but the alignment of financial resources and responsibilities still needs optimization [1][11][15]. Group 2: Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on three key tasks: promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives, addressing the slowdown in external demand, and resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [1][21][22]. - Policies such as trade-in programs and childbirth subsidies are expected to continue and be enhanced, with a focus on service consumption, projecting a retail sales growth rate of around 4.5% [2][25]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, it is essential to clarify the scale and path of debt management funding, with an estimated need for around 3 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt management and clearing overdue accounts in 2026 [3][29]. - The pressure of interest payments after debt replacement is expected to be manageable due to a low-interest environment, which will help offset the visible interest payment pressure [3][37]. - The growth rate of infrastructure investment is projected to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by the constraints of debt management and the pursuit of effective investment [3][41]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Projections for 2026 - The growth rate of broad fiscal spending is expected to be around 4.6%, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate still needing to exceed 4%, and new local special bonds projected at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan [5][43][49]. - The general public budget revenue growth rate is estimated at about 1%, while government fund revenue is expected to decline by around 5% [43][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The economic growth in October continued the slowdown trend in the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed by the end of October, which may effectively boost investment growth in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that the annual economic growth target of 5% can be achieved without worry [104]. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail showing varying degrees of decline. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. In the short term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [105]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract rose 0.01%. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest decreased [13][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [16][22]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: From January to October this year, the national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to October, the national fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased. The new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a decline in the future. The yield of Japan's newly issued 10 - year treasury bonds reached a new high since June 2008. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts in October was highly controversial. The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose to a new high since October 2021 [33][34][35]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spread**: The spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year treasury yields narrowed, and the spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year treasury yields widened [41]. - **Main Contract Spread**: The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts narrowed, and the spread between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened [50]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Near - Far Month Spread**: The inter - period spreads of the 10 - year, 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts all narrowed [54][61]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T treasury bond futures main contract increased slightly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight and 1 - week interest rates decreased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44%. The yields of treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 0.6bp and 0.9bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [71]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year China - US treasury yields both narrowed slightly [78]. - **Central Bank Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 434 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.203854 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.263495 trillion yuan, with a net financing of - 59.641 billion yuan [87]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0875, with a cumulative depreciation of 50 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened [90]. - The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond decreased, and the VIX index increased significantly [96]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China increased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [101]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic**: In October, economic indicators such as social retail, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed a slowdown. Social financing and credit decreased slightly year - on - year, and the support of government bonds for social financing continued to weaken. The export growth rate turned negative. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed, which may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved [104]. - **Overseas**: The US government shutdown ended, and a large amount of economic data will be released. The non - farm payrolls in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts was controversial, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased significantly [104].

普徕仕环球投资及亚洲投资委员会发表对亚洲投资者的全球资产配置观点。该行表示，经济方向不明 朗，市场因而调整减息预期，对美联储政策方向的忧虑趋增。普徕仕对风险资产维持整体中性立场，对 美股维持中性，偏高配置中国股票。 该行指，虽然市场早已预期美联储减息25个基点及结束量化紧缩，但联邦公开市场委员会委员之间的分 歧凸显经济前景的不确定性。有一位委员主张更进取的减息50基点，另一位则反对任何减息，反映美联 储在经济数据有限的情况下，正在权衡各种矛盾信号。 美股自"解放日"低位反弹近40%后，近期转趋波动。市场对高估值、对于人工智能支出的质疑，以及AI 基建债务融资等问题日益受关注。此外，早前美国政府停摆、私营部门数据显示就业市场转弱、消费者 信心下滑，加上美联储政策方向不明朗，都令市场忧虑加深。 然而，企业盈利仍然强劲，并购活动回升，而且财政及货币政策支持的论调依然存在。值得注意的是， AI支出已成为经济增长、企业盈利及市场表现的主要动力，抵消了房地产、制造业及就业市场的疲 弱。鉴于这些失衡的因素，对风险资产维持整体中性立场，并密切关注经济各个领域的分化现象。 美股方面，普徕仕对各市值板块维持中性。虽然大型股可能受 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the fiscal policy in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will focus on balancing active and sustainable requirements to promote stable growth, improve people's livelihoods, and mitigate risks [1][2] Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2026, the narrow fiscal deficit rate is expected to exceed 4%, with new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion and long-term special government bonds issued at approximately 1.5 trillion [1][3] - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift in expenditure structure towards "people's livelihood," which is linked to the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since the third quarter [2] Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with continued tight constraints [2] - On the expenditure side, broad fiscal spending is expected to moderately expand, with a structural shift towards social welfare and a decline in infrastructure investment contributing to a drag of at least 2 percentage points [2][3] Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy will focus on three key tasks: 1. Promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives 2. Addressing the growth continuity issues due to external demand slowdown 3. Resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [2] Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, three key questions need to be clarified: 1. The scale and path of debt management funding, with around 3 trillion in special bonds needed for debt management and clearing [3] 2. The potential increase in interest payment pressure post-debt replacement, which may rise but remain manageable due to a low interest rate environment [3] 3. The funding sources and performance of infrastructure investment, with an expected growth rate of around 3.5% in 2026 [3] Overall Fiscal Growth Projections - The overall growth rate of broad fiscal spending is projected to be around 4.6% in 2026, with the narrow fiscal deficit rate needing to exceed 4% [3]

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2026 aims to balance growth, social welfare, and risk prevention, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to exceed 4%[1] - New local special bonds are projected to be around CNY 4.6 trillion, while ultra-long-term special government bonds may be issued at approximately CNY 1.5 trillion[1] Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In 2025, the fiscal structure shifted towards "people's livelihood," with a mild recovery in revenue but continued constraints[2] - Total broad fiscal expenditure is expected to grow by about 4.6% in 2026, with a focus on social welfare and consumption incentives[5] Infrastructure Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by debt resolution and effective investment strategies[3] - Approximately CNY 3 trillion in special bonds will be needed for debt resolution and clearing overdue payments in 2026[3] Consumer Spending and Social Welfare - Consumer spending is projected to grow at around 4.5%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and birth subsidies[4] - The expected increase in social welfare spending includes a CNY 1,080 billion rise in pensions and CNY 1,000 billion for birth subsidies, which will stimulate consumption[4] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, sluggish recovery in consumer spending, and rising local debt pressures[5] - The fiscal space may be constrained, impacting the effectiveness of the proposed measures[5]

在财政收入回暖、收入结构优化以及政府债券发行的支撑下，财政支出保持较高强度，重点领域得 到较好保障，更多投向民生领域，并"投资于人"。今年前9个月，作为3项典型的民生支出，社会保障和 就业支出、教育支出、卫生健康支出的增速明显高出平均支出增速，且增幅均为近3年同期最高水平。 特别是惠民生、促消费是当前财政政策的重点和主要发力方向，如消费品以旧换新政策继续优化、个人 消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策持续推出，育儿补贴、免费学前教育等民生政策逐步推行等。 与此同时，受益于超长期特别国债和专项债券加快发行，今年前9个月政府性基金预算支出同比大幅增 长，主要投向重大项目建设和化解债务等，更有力扩大了有效投资和缓释了重点领域风险。 也要看到，当前广义财政收支增速有所放缓，未来仍需持续加力保障支出。从一般公共预算支出和 政府性基金支出合计看，广义财政支出同比增速放缓至9月份的2.3%，剔除政府债券支出后，广义财政 支出增长回落更大。今年更加积极的财政政策前置发力，前三季度政府债净发行同比多增4.28万亿元。 这就造成目前的财政支出强度主要依赖财政收入增长及债券发行支撑，如果后续几个月财政收入叠加政 府债供给一旦回落， ...