Group 1 - The economic policy direction in 2026 is shifting from extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments in 2025 to a balance of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with macro policies expected to maintain necessary support to prevent a rapid decline in economic growth [1] - Significant fiscal investments are anticipated in major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" to stabilize investment, reversing the decline in infrastructure investment observed last year [1] - Local governments are expected to optimize expenditure structures and implement income increase plans for urban and rural residents, enhancing social security investments for low-income groups and promoting equal access to basic public services [1] Group 2 - The strong renminbi policy has taken shape, with expectations for authorities to actively promote the internationalization of the renminbi this year, expanding its use in international trade, investment, financing, foreign exchange transactions, and commodity pricing [2] - The renminbi's exchange rate is expected to remain strong, supported by economic fundamentals and external competitiveness [2]

Economic Outlook - The 2026 National People's Congress (NPC) is expected to set the economic growth target at around 5%[9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target for 2026 is anticipated to remain at approximately 2%[9] - The fiscal deficit rate is likely to be maintained at around 4%[12] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions depending on economic growth and inflation trends[15] - The central bank's actions in 2025 included a 0.1 percentage point cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the RRR[15] Domestic Demand and Innovation - Expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are prioritized government tasks for 2026[16] - The government aims to promote technological innovation and the development of artificial intelligence as key focuses for the year[22] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, a downturn in the real estate market, and escalating geopolitical tensions[36]

虽然有了法院裁决，但华府会否退还已经征收的数十亿美元；此外，目前尚不清楚这如何影响美国与加拿大和墨西哥等邻国的贸易 协定，尽管《美墨加协定》(USMCA)应该能保护这些关系免受最严重的影响。 另外，原本已被受关注的美联储今年将降息的次数，未能消除贸易摩擦将阻碍经济增长，若美股出现超10%的下跌浪，美联储对降 息时间表可能更难决定。 在刚过去的周末，美国总统特朗普表示，他计划将临时全球关税税率提高至15%，高于最高法院驳回其紧急关税计划部分内容后实 施的10%水平，这在市场对法律裁决作出积极反应仅一天后就加剧了贸易紧张局势。 最高法院以6比3的裁决认定，《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)并未授予总统实施全面关税的权力，强化了国会在税收和贸易政策方 面的作用。 根据现行贸易法，较高的关税将立即生效，并持续最多150天，尽管此举可能面临法律挑战，例如围绕潜在关税退款的问题，这些退 款总额可能超过1750亿美元，对财政政策和市场流动性具有更广泛的影响。 特朗普将全球关税税率提高的公告，凸显了即使在最高法院限制了政府的一项关键法律工具之后，贸易紧张局势仍然是投资者面临 的核心宏观风险，市场目前正密切关注未来几周的进一 ...

今年我国继续实施更加积极的财政政策，在加强财政投入的同时，必须提升资金使用效益。对于有奖发 票试点而言，百亿元的投入也要充分发挥出应有的效果。优化流程设计，借助信息化手段使消费者方便 快捷参与抽奖，真正体现便民利民惠民。强化资金监管，确保公开透明，防范徇私舞弊、人为操纵等违 法违规问题。财政补助资金专款专用于兑付消费者奖金，杜绝弄虚作假骗取、套取补助资金。 花100多元吃饭或购物就有机会中奖！在今年的春节消费中，有奖发票成为激发购物热情和市场活力的 一个"大礼包"。消费者参与感、获得感提升，纷纷出手"买买买"，带动市场升温。有奖发票试点活动的 有效开展，传递出宏观政策真金白银大力提振消费的重要信号。 按照活动安排，在北京、上海、厦门等50个城市开展有奖发票试点，半年实施期内将发放100亿元奖补 资金，其中春节9天假期的奖金规模就超过10亿元。消费者在试点城市购物、就餐、旅游、住宿等取得 票面金额在100元以上的发票均可参与抽奖。日前，各试点城市活动进展顺利，众多消费者获得意外惊 喜。比如，南宁试点活动首期开奖，逾4.4万份发票分享270万元奖金；太原试点活动启动10日，超14万 张发票中奖。 有奖发票试点政策 ...

日本首相高市早苗即将提名的日本央行政策委员会新人选，正成为市场研判其货币政策意图的关键窗 口。这项人事决定将揭示高市早苗希望在多大程度上引导央行政策走向。 据彭博援引知情人士，高市早苗最早可能于2月25日的国会会议上，提议替换两名现任委员——野口旭 与中川顺子。其中，野口旭的五年任期将于3月底结束，中川顺子的任期则在6月29日届满。 高市早苗的选举胜利为其执政提供了更强底气。她领导的自民党在众议院获得超过三分之二席位，一举 巩固了此前仅以微弱多数运作的政府。这一显著胜利，叠加胜选后的谨慎言论，有效安抚了市场参与 者。 前日本央行政策委员会成员足立诚司本周受访时直言： "如果她真的想阻止日元走弱或长期债券收益率上升，最好不要选择再通胀主义者。" 高市早苗以支持刺激政策、偏好经济增长和对加息持谨慎态度而闻名。2024年是她成为首相的前一年， 她曾公开表示，当时日本央行加息将是"愚蠢的"。自去年10月上任以来，她已在经济顾问小组中任命多 位再通胀主义者，包括前副行长若田部昌澄和片冈刚士。这两人均曾是她的导师、前首相安倍晋三任命 的央行委员。 尽管这两项提名须经国会两院批准，而高市领导的自民党在参议院未占多数，为人事 ...

IMF指出，债务水平持续高企，叠加财政收支状况恶化，使日本经济面临一系列冲击。 针对高市提出的为期两年的"食品消费税归零"竞选承诺，IMF直言"应避免削减消费税"，称"这一缺乏针 对性的措施会压缩财政空间，增加财政风险"。 这一报告发布恰逢日本首相指名选举之际。路透社称，市场密切关注高市早苗是否会反对央行进一步加 息，以及高市此前提出的为期两年的"食品消费税归零"承诺。 货币政策方面，IMF指出，日本央行保持独立性与公信力，有助于稳定通胀预期，并表示日本央行"应 继续退出货币宽松，使政策利率在2027年达到中性利率水平"。 财政政策方面，IMF认为，短期内财政政策不宜进一步宽松。这一点与高市提出的"负责任的积极财 政"相悖。IMF认为，日本目前虽有一定财政空间，但仍需保持财政克制，以稳固财政缓冲、维持应对 冲击的能力。IMF预测，长期看日本政府财政赤字将扩大，支出压力将增加，公共债务总额将进一步增 长。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）17日发布报告，警示日本政府应保持日本央行独立性，控制财政扩张，避免 以削减消费税方式应对民生问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns the Japanese government to maintain the independence of the Bank of Japan and control fiscal expansion, advising against reducing consumption tax to address living costs [2] Monetary Policy - The IMF emphasizes that the independence and credibility of the Bank of Japan are crucial for stabilizing inflation expectations [2] - The report suggests that the Bank of Japan should continue to exit monetary easing, aiming for the policy interest rate to reach neutral levels by 2027 [2] Fiscal Policy - The IMF advises against further fiscal loosening in the short term, which contradicts the campaign promise of "responsible active fiscal policy" proposed by the current administration [2] - While Japan has some fiscal space, the IMF stresses the need for fiscal restraint to solidify fiscal buffers and maintain the ability to respond to shocks [2] - The IMF predicts that Japan's government fiscal deficit will widen in the long term, with increasing spending pressures and a further rise in total public debt [2] - The IMF highlights that high debt levels, combined with deteriorating fiscal conditions, pose a series of shocks to the Japanese economy [2] Consumption Tax - Regarding the proposed two-year "zero food consumption tax" campaign promise, the IMF explicitly states that reducing consumption tax should be avoided, as it would compress fiscal space and increase fiscal risks [2]

Group 1 - The IMF warns the Japanese government to maintain the independence of the Bank of Japan and control fiscal expansion, avoiding tax cuts as a response to livelihood issues [1][2] - The IMF emphasizes that the independence and credibility of the Bank of Japan are crucial for stabilizing inflation expectations, recommending a continued exit from monetary easing with a target policy rate reaching neutral levels by 2027 [1] - The IMF expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates twice this year and again in 2027 [1] Group 2 - The IMF predicts that Japan's fiscal deficit will widen, with increasing spending pressures and public debt remaining among the highest in major economies [2] - Interest payments on Japan's debt are expected to double by 2031 compared to 2025 due to higher yields on existing debt [2] - The IMF advises against the proposed two-year "zero food consumption tax" campaign promise, stating that such non-targeted tax cuts would compress fiscal space and increase financial risks [2]

（来源：中国商报） 融资渠道多元化 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫对中国商报记者表示，从增量结构来看，1月社会融资规模增量为7.22万亿元，比上年同期多1662亿元，表明实体经济融资需求 有所回暖，金融体系对经济的支持较为积极。 数据显示，政府债券净融资表现突出，达9764亿元，同比多增2831亿元，占当月社融增量的13.5%，为2021年以来同期最高水平。 国信证券认为，1月政府融资表现较佳，仍是社融增量的重要构成之一，这体现了财政政策延续积极基调，与货币政策协同发力的成效。 中国城市发展研究院投资部副主任袁帅进一步向记者表示，信托贷款、未贴现银行承兑汇票等表外融资工具的余额增速回升，也反映出金融市场的融资渠道 正在逐渐多元化，为实体经济提供了更多元化的资金支持。 转自：中国商报 中国商报（记者 王彤旭）2月13日，中国人民银行发布的金融数据显示，1月末，社会融资规模存量达449.11万亿元，同比增长8.2%，比上年同期高0.2个百 分点；广义货币（M2）同比增长9%，比上年同期高2个百分点，均明显高于名义GDP增速，有力支持年初经济平稳开局。 市民经过中国人民银行。（资料图，图片由CNSPHOTO提供） 信贷投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data released by the People's Bank of China indicates a positive start to the economy in January, with significant growth in social financing and money supply, supporting economic stability at the beginning of the year [1][4]. Financing Channels Diversification - In January, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, 1.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating a recovery in financing demand from the real economy [2]. - Government bond net financing reached 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 13.5% of the monthly social financing increment, the highest level since 2021 [3]. - The growth rate of off-balance-sheet financing tools, such as trust loans and discounted bank acceptance bills, has rebounded, reflecting a diversification of financing channels in the financial market [4]. Money Supply - As of the end of January, the broad money supply (M2) reached 347.19 trillion yuan, growing by 9% year-on-year, which is 0.5 and 2 percentage points higher than the previous month and the same period last year, respectively [4]. - The narrow money supply (M1) was 117.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The cash in circulation (M0) was 14.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and a net cash injection of 519.1 billion yuan in January to meet pre-Spring Festival liquidity demands [4]. Bank Credit "Opening Red" - The total RMB loan balance at the end of January was 276.62 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, and an increase of 4.71 trillion yuan in January, aligning with market expectations [5][6]. - Corporate loans were the main contributor, increasing by 4.45 trillion yuan in January, with short-term loans rising by 2.05 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans by 3.18 trillion yuan, accounting for over 70% of the total [5]. - Household loans increased by 456.5 billion yuan in January, driven by diverse consumer demands and supportive policies for personal consumption loans [6]. Deposit Performance - The total balance of deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 344.46 trillion yuan at the end of January, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [8]. - RMB deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan, with household deposits, non-financial corporate deposits, fiscal deposits, and deposits from non-bank financial institutions all showing significant increases [8]. - The robust growth in deposits indicates overall ample funding supply and sufficient market liquidity, supporting the ongoing efforts of monetary policy to stabilize growth and optimize structure [8].