Group 1 - Norway's unexpected interest rate cut highlights increasing investor anxiety amid geopolitical tensions, trade risks, and a volatile dollar, complicating global monetary policy and inflation predictions [1] - The Swiss National Bank also reduced borrowing costs to 0%, indicating a bleak global outlook, which surprised some market participants [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Chairman Powell acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding future rate paths, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - Investors anticipate rising volatility due to geopolitical disruptions affecting the dollar and oil prices, diminishing central banks' ability to provide clear future guidance [2] - European central banks are diverging from the Fed, struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar has become weaker and more unstable under trade war pressures [3] - The dollar has declined nearly 9% against other major currencies this year, with a recent uptick following conflicts between Israel and Iran [3] Group 3 - The unexpected rate cuts from central banks may lead to a new normal characterized by increased market volatility and rapid shifts in asset pricing and narratives [3] - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly as investors seek non-dollar wealth storage, impacting import costs and pushing the economy towards deflation [4] - The Swiss franc rose against the dollar as traders deemed the Swiss National Bank's rate cut insufficient to combat deflation [5] Group 4 - Global equity market risks are rising, with options products designed to mitigate upcoming volatility appearing relatively cheap [6] - There is a focus on purchasing bonds from countries where inflation and interest rates may significantly decline, while maintaining a negative outlook on long-term U.S. and German bonds due to higher economic uncertainty [6] - Despite concerns, global equity markets remain nearly 20% higher than their lows in April, indicating resilience amid tariff-related worries [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices ended a nine-day winning streak as investors reassessed former President Trump's latest tariff comments, leading to a resurgence in risk-averse sentiment with significant increases in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films negatively impacted market sentiment, particularly affecting entertainment stocks such as Netflix and Paramount Global, reigniting concerns over his overall trade policy stance [2] - Recent economic data showed mixed signals, with the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, while employment sub-indices shrank for the second consecutive month, raising doubts about the labor market fundamentals [2][4] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is surrounded by uncertainty, especially with no substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite both sides expressing willingness to continue dialogue [4] - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the May meeting, with close attention on potential rate cuts in June or July, although rising trade risks are leading to a downward adjustment in expectations for recent easing policies [4][6] - The S&P 500 index is facing key technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, which historically serves as an important market inflection point, indicating persistent bearish sentiment in the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, easing trade tensions between the US and China, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which collectively affect the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a decline of approximately 0.65% at the start of the week, with the current trading price around $3300.72 per ounce, following a recent peak [1]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates in June 2025, which has implications for gold prices [2]. - Despite a strong dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets, the overall outlook for gold remains optimistic due to potential geopolitical risks and trade tensions [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Recent volatility in gold prices has been significant, with a need for traders to adjust stop-loss levels accordingly [3]. - Gold is currently trading within a range of $3260 to $3338, with key support at $3270 and resistance at $3338-3340 [5]. - A breakdown below the $3260-$3265 range could lead to a rapid decline towards the $3200 mark, indicating a potential top for gold prices [3][5]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3338-3340 and buying on dips around $3265-3270, with specific stop-loss levels and target prices outlined [5]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of risk management and adjusting positions based on market movements [6][7].