南方财经记者 周蕊 纽约报道 市场的热烈反应也折射出投资者的矛盾心态：一方面，他们对流动性宽松充满期待；另一方面，又担忧 经济基本面难以支撑股市的长期繁荣。Nuveen固定收益主管托尼·罗德里格斯表示："鲍威尔讲话短期内 缓解了紧张，但真正的考验在未来数周的数据。" 可以说，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的最后一次亮相，为市场带来了一次"鸽派的狂欢"，却也留下了"滞胀的 阴影"。在降息预期与通胀压力的博弈下，美联储与华尔街之间的微妙关系，仍将在未来数月不断上 演。 出品：南方财经全媒体集团 栏目策划：赵海建 栏目统筹：向秀芳 在全球投资者屏息以待之际，美联储主席鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年会上发表讲话，意外传递出更 为鸽派的立场。这一表态被市场视为放松货币政策的信号，引发美股与美债同步上扬，成为自4月以来 最大的一次跨市场行情。 鲍威尔在讲话中提到，"风险平衡的变化可能需要调整政策立场"，暗示9月可能降息，但并未给出明确 承诺。他的此番表态不仅契合市场对宽松的期待，也引发了关于经济"滞胀"风险的新一轮争论。 市场最直接的反应是国债收益率快速下行，两年期美债收益率一度下滑10个基点至3.69%，利率期货隐 含的9月降息概率 ...

多位华尔街策略师认为，鲍威尔的表态是"对市场的安抚"，但市场或许反应过度。Facet首席投资官汤 姆.格拉夫警告称："未来几个月仅靠降息不足以支撑股市的持续上涨，如果经济放缓、就业继续恶化， 那么当前的反弹随时可能逆转。" 不过，市场中也不乏乐观声音。Russell Investments的全球首席投资策略师保罗.艾特尔曼表示："如果美 联储选择循序渐进地降息，稍微给经济松绑，那么市场反弹完全合理。" 与此同时，美联储的独立性再度引发外界忧虑。讲话前，美国总统特朗普已多次公开施压，要求鲍威尔 尽快降息，并要求美联储理事库克辞职，否则将考虑将其解职。这种政治干预的言论，使市场担心未来 货币政策可能受到更大干扰。Monex USA的交易主管Helen Given直言："特朗普对库克的言论，再次让 人担忧美联储的独立性。" 市场的热烈反应也折射出投资者的矛盾心态：一方面，他们对流动性宽松充满期待；另一方面，又担忧 经济基本面难以支撑股市的长期繁荣。Nuveen固定收益主管托尼.罗德里格斯表示："鲍威尔讲话短期内 缓解了紧张，但真正的考验在未来数周的数据。" 南方财经记者周蕊纽约报道 在全球投资者屏息以待之际，美联储 ...

新西兰央行，再度降息！ 8月20日，新西兰央行（新西兰储备银行）将官方现金利率下调25个基点至3%。自去年8月启动本轮降息周期以来，新西兰央行已累计降息 250个基点。新西兰央行表示，未来几个月将进一步降息。这意味着，新西兰的货币政策进入更为宽松的阶段。 在上述降息的消息披露后，新西兰股市直线拉升。截至北京时间12时，新西兰NZ50指数上涨超1.5%，MSCI新西兰指数涨幅超过2%。新 西兰的货币则出现跳水，美元兑新西兰元涨幅超过1%。 降息25个基点 新西兰央行8月20日将政策利率下调25个基点至3%，符合市场预期。 在货币政策会议上，新西兰货币政策委员会以4票赞成、2票反对的投票结果，决定将官方现金利率（OCR）从3.25%下调至3.00%。会议纪 要显示，决策层围绕3种政策选项进行了深入讨论：维持利率不变、下调25个基点或下调50个基点。最终，多数委员认为，下调25个基点是 平衡当前经济风险与未来前景的最优选择。 上述降息的决策公开发布后，新西兰的股票市场大幅拉升，MSCI新西兰指数涨超2%，新西兰NZ50指数一度涨超200点，涨幅接近1.6%。 截至北京时间12时，MSCI新西兰指数上涨2.26%，新 ...

房价未达预期，财政政策助力控通胀 新华财经北京8月20日电（崔凯）新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）将官方现金利率（OCR）下调25个基点至 3.00%，符合市场普遍预期。在货币政策会议上，委员会以4票赞成、2票反对的投票结果，决定将OCR 从3.25%下调至3.00%。 会议纪要显示，决策层围绕3种政策选项进行了深入讨论：维持利率不变、下调25个基点或下调50个基 点。最终，多数委员认为，下调25个基点是平衡当前经济风险与未来前景的最优选择。 新西兰联储主席克里斯蒂安·霍克斯比（ChristianHawkesby）在利率决议后发表讲话，进一步阐明货币 政策立场与经济前景判断。他表示，过去累计250个基点的宽松政策将为经济增长提供支持，但未来降 息步伐的快慢将"完全取决于数据"。 经济停滞，宽松持续 霍克斯比指出，新西兰经济在2025年第二季度"停滞不前"，经济活动"远弱于预期"。尽管通胀预计短期 内将升至3.0%，但核心通胀压力持续缓解，经济中存在显著闲置产能，支持货币政策转向更为中性乃 至宽松的立场。 "我们现在的官方现金利率已不再具有限制性，"霍克斯比强调，"对中性立场的看法没有改变。"他同时 确认，联储预测未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].

Macro Overview - In July, China's CPI and PPI data showed slight month-on-month improvement, while investment, consumption, exports, and credit data were weaker than expected. The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration, indicating continued expectations for policy easing [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains high expectations for a rate cut in September, supporting overall market risk appetite [1] Steel and Construction Materials - The market is currently in a clear consumption off-season, with MySteel reporting a decrease in rebar production and demand, leading to an increase in both factory and social inventories for two consecutive weeks [1] - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.407 million tons, a slight increase of 0.4 thousand tons week-on-week, while the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased but remains relatively high [1] - As the consumption peak season approaches, production and apparent demand are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in inventories [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - For copper, global total inventory increased slightly by about 0.17 million tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 125.6 thousand tons, remaining low for the same period. The processing fee for copper concentrate rose to -37.67 USD/ton, indicating a slight easing in supply tightness [2] - The overall judgment indicates marginal improvement in fundamentals, with domestic inventory reduction supporting spot prices, but macro uncertainties remain, leading to price fluctuations in the range of 77,000 to 81,000 RMB/ton [2] Lithium Carbonate - With the suspension of mining by Yichun Times, lithium carbonate prices have strengthened, and there are expectations of long-term production halts for downstream smelting enterprises after depleting their rights and inventory mines [3] - In August, downstream production demand improved significantly, with lithium iron phosphate increasing by 8.8% and ternary batteries by 9.2%, raising concerns about raw material stocking for September [3] - The overall judgment suggests that supply disruptions combined with demand improvements will maintain a strong price trend for lithium [3] Energy and Chemicals - The energy sector showed divergence, with international crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and chemicals experiencing wide fluctuations. The meeting between Trump and Putin did not result in agreements, but eased tensions, with no new sanctions on Russia expected in the short term [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, indicating a global oil surplus. The IEA report predicts a significant oversupply in the oil market by 2026, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [4] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced weak fluctuations, primarily due to a decline in safe-haven demand and the expectation of phased trade agreements. U.S. inflation data remains under pressure, with July PPI rising by 0.9%, the largest month-on-month increase in three years [5] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from around 40% to nearly 90%, with projections for three rate cuts within the year [5] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated, with long-term economic recession risks potentially driving a shift towards rate cuts and a restructuring of the global monetary system [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **debt market** and **government debt management** in **Guizhou Province** within the context of the broader **Chinese economy**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Debt Cycle and Government Leverage** The current debt cycle is in a clearing phase, with the government increasing leverage to replace some corporate and household debt, leading to a significant rise in government bonds supporting social financing growth [2][5][6] 2. **Impact of Local Government Bond Issuance** After September, the issuance of local government bonds is expected to decrease, making the improvement of household and corporate financing crucial for future economic performance [2][5] 3. **Monetary Policy Outlook** The monetary policy is currently in a waiting phase, with expectations of new easing measures potentially being introduced by the end of Q3 or early Q4 2025. The focus remains on maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to lower social financing costs [3][4][6] 4. **Short-term Liquidity Risks** There is currently low risk in short-term liquidity, with funding prices remaining stable and consistent with 2022 levels. Structural monetary policy and reduced government bond issuance have limited liquidity shocks [7] 5. **Bond Market Volatility** Recent volatility in the bond market is characterized by widening yield spreads and increased fluctuations in long-term yields, with daily fluctuations in 10-year and 30-year government bonds exceeding 3 basis points [8] 6. **Long-term Yield Trends** Long-term yield adjustments show a trend of gradually decreasing peaks, with recent high points around 1.80%, down from nearly 1.9% earlier in the year [9] 7. **Guizhou's Debt Management Progress** Guizhou has made significant progress in managing local government debt through various measures, including the use of high-interest debt replacement strategies [10][16] 8. **Government Fund Revenue Performance** Guizhou's government fund revenue has remained robust, with consistent annual figures exceeding 2,000 billion since 2020, indicating effective fiscal management despite overall economic challenges [12] 9. **Investment Opportunities in Guizhou** Post-debt resolution, Guizhou presents investment opportunities, particularly in traditional urban investment projects and new market-oriented entities, which are expected to receive substantial support [21][22] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Regional Economic Disparities** There are notable differences in economic and fiscal strength between Guizhou's major cities, such as Guiyang and Zunyi, affecting their debt issuance capabilities [13] 2. **Guizhou's Industrial Development** Despite perceptions of economic weakness, Guizhou is actively pursuing industrial development, with local governments shifting focus from debt resolution to fostering new financing needs and supporting local enterprises [20] 3. **Non-standard Debt Replacement** The replacement of non-standard debt is progressing slowly, with expectations for implementation starting in 2025, indicating a cautious approach to managing complex financial instruments [17] 4. **Bank Lending Practices** Major state-owned banks dominate the lending landscape in Guizhou, with limited participation from smaller commercial banks, reflecting a concentration of financial resources [18] 5. **Special Debt Issuance** Guizhou has achieved significant results in issuing special refinancing bonds, ranking among the top provinces in terms of issuance volume, which is critical for managing fiscal pressures [19]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a 10-year high, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting 3745.94 points, driven by various factors including monetary policy and sector performance [2][5][6]. Market Performance - On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3728.03, up by 31.26 points or 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 200.90 points or 1.73% [3]. - The total market turnover was 2.8 trillion yuan, and the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time [2]. Factors Driving Market Growth - The continuation of a loose monetary policy has kept market liquidity abundant, encouraging capital inflow into the stock market [6]. - A shift in various types of funds towards the stock market has been observed, with a notable decrease in household and corporate deposits [6]. - The demand for AI-related technologies has surged, boosting orders for GPUs, ASIC chips, and other related components, making it a key investment theme [7]. - Easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. has alleviated market concerns regarding trade disputes [8]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain upward momentum, supported by favorable funding conditions and policy alignment [10]. - There is a focus on sectors such as cyclical industries, technology, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption trends for potential investment opportunities [12]. - The market may experience a rotation of trading logic, with a strong emphasis on sectors like brokerage and technology, particularly in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [13]. Investment Opportunities - Companies in the technology sector, especially those involved in AI, innovative drugs, and high-market-share manufacturing, are seen as potential leaders in the market [13]. - The focus on cyclical stocks, technology manufacturing, and new consumption is expected to continue, with specific attention to sectors like rare earths, cobalt, and photovoltaic in the short term [13].

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net withdrawal this week was CNY 414.9 billion, with a total of CNY 300 billion in net injections from reverse repos throughout the month[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased to CNY 8.15 trillion, with a notable drop on Friday[3] - The DR001 rate remained above 1.3%, indicating that expectations for a lower bound adjustment have not materialized[3] Credit and Financing Trends - New social financing in July was only CNY 1.1 trillion, significantly lower than the expected CNY 1.5 trillion, with a notable reliance on government bonds and direct corporate financing[3] - July saw the first negative growth in credit since 2005, with a decline of CNY 500 billion, despite a surge in bill financing exceeding CNY 800 billion[3] - The central bank's loan interest rates are expected to show a reduced year-on-year decline in Q3 due to lower base effects[3] Government Debt and Issuance - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was CNY 410.4 billion, expected to decrease to CNY 294.1 billion next week[4] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 reached CNY 575.9 billion, with special bonds at CNY 28.369 trillion[4] - The issuance of local government bonds is projected to accelerate, with a total of CNY 3.692 billion expected next week[4] Market Sentiment and Risks - The bond market showed weakness, with a notable reduction in non-bank financial institutions' holdings of certificates of deposit and financial bonds[3] - The central bank's cautious stance on further easing is reflected in its emphasis on preventing "capital turnover" and improving fund utilization efficiency[3] - Potential risks include monetary policy not meeting expectations and unexpected fluctuations in the funding environment[3]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美俄即将会面，中美关税再延缓 90 天，美通胀数据增加降息预期，短期盘面盘整。 | | | 回调做多 | 中长期多国货币政策宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低，长期黄 | | ★★ | | 金继续战略配置。谨防短期特朗普普京会面对盘面冲击【770-788】 | | | | 白银逻辑不变，跟随黄金大幅波动，中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺 | | 白银 | 止跌做多 | 激等支撑作用明显，工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。短期白 | | ★★ | | | | | | 银品种弹性较大，短期等止跌试多长期做多。【9100-9300】 | | 铜 | | 中美关税再延期 90 天，美国通胀低于预期，美联储 9 月降息概率回升，宏观情绪回 | | ★★★ | 多单持有 | 暖，市场风险偏好走高。LME 铜累库幅度放缓，国内铜社会库存偏紧，建议多单继 | | | | 续持有，中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【78000，81000】 | | | | 宏观情绪回暖，市场 ...