宏观日报 | 2025-06-26 关注运输业产业集群建设 中观事件总览 生产行业：上海将建设世界级船舶与海工装备产业集群。 1）《上海市海洋产业发展规划（2025-2035）（征求意见 稿）》公开征求意见。其中提到，建设世界级船舶与海工装备产业集群。到2030年，船舶与海工装备产业增加值超 450亿元，大型LNG运输船本土化率提升到85%以上，基本建成原创技术策源和绿色智能引领的世界级船舶与海洋 工程装备产业体系。2）在存储晶圆原厂陆续宣布减产计划背景下，近期存储市场加速回暖，以DDR4为代表的内 存条领涨市场，在传统的IC淡季急速升温。仅间隔两周，DDR4颗粒价格翻倍，甚至部分型号价格已经追平新一代 DDR5。 服务行业：退休金无需缴纳个人所得税。 1）六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》。其中 提出，强化结构性货币政策工具激励。设立服务消费与养老再贷款，额度5000亿元，对21家全国性金融机构以及5 家属于系统重要性金融机构的城市商业银行发放的服务消费重点领域贷款，可按照贷款本金的100%申请再贷款。2） 6月24日，北京市税务局12366纳税缴费服务热线回应纳税人咨询，表示退休金无需 ...

展望下半年，中信证券指出，考虑到货币政策中性偏宽松的基调，预计流动性不会大幅收紧，但在政府 债缴款和税期等时点，资金利率可能会有较大的波动。操作上可以采取长短端兼顾的"哑铃策略"，适度 博弈央行的宽松动作。 6月以来，人民银行分别在6月6日和6月16日开展共计14000亿元买断式逆回购操作，对冲当月到期的 12000亿元买断式逆回购，叠加本轮MLF操作，中期流动性净投放总额达到3180亿元。 东方金诚表示，短期来看，央行或将主要通过逆回购操作削峰平谷、熨平波动。长期来看，央行还可能 恢复公开市场国债买卖，结合降准向银行体系投放长期流动性。预计下半年央行还会综合运用MLF、 买断式逆回购及国库现金定存等工具，保持中期流动性处于净投放状态。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，在5月降准释放长期流动性10000亿元的同时，近月中期流动性持续 处于净投放状态，主要有两个原因，一是在政府债券持续大规模发行、近月银行同业存单到期规模处于 高峰阶段，保持银行体系流动性持续处于充裕状态，控制资金面波动，稳定市场预期；二是释放数量型 货币政策工具持续加力的政策信号，推动存量社融和M2增速稳中有升，更好满足企业和居民的融资需 求， ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, aligning with market expectations, while the potential for further monetary easing remains influenced by various factors [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and LPR - The recent financial policies include a comprehensive 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a decrease in policy rates by 10-25 basis points, leading to a 10 basis point drop in both LPRs [1][4] - The LPR is unlikely to decrease further this month due to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40%, which serves as a reference for LPR [2] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.43% by the end of Q1 2025, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating pressure on banks to reduce LPR markups [2] Group 2: Financing Costs and Economic Impact - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in May were approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, both down about 50 and 55 basis points year-on-year, reflecting a continued decline in financing costs [2] - The marginal effectiveness of interest rate cuts is diminishing as market rates decrease, with only 7.7% of surveyed enterprises considering loan rates high or processes complex [3] - Future reductions in overall financing costs may focus on lowering non-interest costs such as collateral and intermediary service fees rather than further interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC plans to enhance structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors and strategic areas, with an increase in re-lending quotas for technology innovation and small enterprises by 300 billion yuan each [5] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through targeted measures, including the use of structural monetary policy to promote housing stability [5][6] - The capital market's recovery is supported by structural monetary policy tools, which aim to enhance the "wealth effect" and promote a positive cycle in both stock and real estate markets [6]

● 本报记者彭扬 中国人民银行网站6月24日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年6月25日，央行将以固定数量、利 率招标、多重价位中标方式开展3000亿元MLF(中期借贷便利)操作，期限为1年期。鉴于6月有1820亿元 MLF到期，因此实现净投放1180亿元，这也是央行连续4个月超额续做到期MLF。 专家表示，下半年，央行或持续超额续做到期MLF，并结合买断式逆回购操作，合理补充中期流动 性。同时，综合运用公开市场操作等多种货币政策工具，确保流动性持续处于充裕水平。 加大中期流动性投放 专家表示，下半年MLF有望持续超额续做，并结合买断式逆回购操作，维持对中期流动性的净投放。 同时，预计央行将灵活运用多种货币政策工具，持续保持流动性处于充裕状态。 "央行操作也在择机，基于宏观形势和金融市场变化，调整自身工具运用情况。"华西证券（002926）首 席经济学家刘郁认为，"央行对总量型工具的运用大概率偏积极，从近期流动性投放情况来看，秉持的 仍是适度宽松的理念。" 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，考虑到三季度政府债发行可能进一步加快，金融机构尤其是银行，对 流动性支持存在一定需求。在支持性的货币政策立场下，央行 ...

《意见》还明确要推动扩大商品消费、助力培育新型消费。在商品消费领域，《意见》主要围绕重点场 景和重点人群，提出创新优化消费信贷产品，满足消费者差异化、个性化消费需求，继续做好消费品以 旧换新金融服务。例如，提出要积极开展汽车贷款业务，综合借款人信用水平、还款能力等，合理确定 贷款发放比例、期限和利率，适当减免汽车以旧换新过程中提前结清贷款产生的违约金。 6月24日，人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总局、证监会联合发布《关于金融 支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》(以下简称《意见》)，从支持增强消费能力、着力提升金融机构专业 化服务能力、加大消费重点领域金融支持、强化消费基础设施和流通体系的金融支持、加强基础金融服 务优化消费环境等方面提出19条具体举措，为更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用提供有力支撑。 着力提升金融机构专业化服务能力，扩大消费领域金融供给是本次《意见》的重点部署内容。业内专家 指出，当前我国银行、消费金融公司、汽车金融公司等多层次消费金融服务体系建设较为完善，其中， 信贷支持发挥了主渠道作用，债券融资、股权融资等多元化融资渠道同步发力，为消费市场稳定发展提 供了重要金融支撑。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and five other departments issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, aiming to meet diverse financial service needs in the consumption sector [1] - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate and optimize credit products while increasing support for eligible consumption industry entities through various loan types [1] - The integration of technology such as the internet and big data with consumer finance is promoted to streamline the application, approval, and disbursement processes for online consumer credit [1] Group 2 - Structural monetary policy tools are reinforced to incentivize financial institutions to issue loans to key service consumption sectors, including retail, hospitality, and education [2] - A special re-lending quota of 500 billion yuan is established for service consumption, allowing eligible financial institutions to apply for re-lending based on the principal of loans issued [2] - Support for bond market financing is increased, encouraging qualified enterprises in cultural, tourism, and education sectors to issue bonds to raise funds [2] Group 3 - Equity financing is actively promoted for quality enterprises in the consumption industry chain through methods such as public listings and private placements [3] - Social capital is encouraged to invest more in key service consumption areas, with a focus on long-term and patient capital to meet financing needs for long-cycle consumption industries [3] - The issuance of consumer ETFs and other specialized investment products is encouraged to enhance investment opportunities in the consumption sector [3]

半年度报告——股指期货 波动压平下寻找结构性机会 [★Ta2b0l2e5_S下um半m年a国ry]内经济展望：经济平稳增长 股 外需：出口增速下滑但存在韧性。美国对华关税不确定性大，且 自身需求收缩。但非美国家对中国出口支撑加大将形成对冲。 内需：经济新动能扩张和老动能走弱并存。政策如何发力成为下 半年看点。财政政策更侧重消费、生育、养老补贴等方向以及新 质生产力投资扩容。货币政策预计仍旧是跟随式降息且更侧重结 构性货币政策工具。消费方面存在补贴加码的需求。而地产转弱 拖累经济，下半年需加大止跌回稳的政策呵护力度。 通胀：看点仍在供给侧。若能加快转型升级、优化产业布局、加 指 强市场监管，则有望在四季度低基数下实现跌幅收窄。 期 ★2025 下半年 A 股展望：上有顶下有底，行情呈结构性 货 今年是典型的风险偏好驱动市场上行的一年。国内科技新兴产业 的爆发为这一过程加速，国家队等救市资金的入场形成了负β截 断效应，支撑了高风险偏好资金的持续活跃。当前 A 股各指数的 估值水平已经不低，且盈利预期依然在低位徘徊，故指数上行存 在压力。在居民存款入市的初始阶段，我们预计下半年 A 股市场 延续分化特征，即大盘指数 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 国际油价升至年内高位 证券研究报告 高频经济跟踪周报 20250621 需求：新房成交续升，汽车消费回暖 （1）地产方面，本周 20 城商品房成交面积环比续升，同比由正转负。二 线城市新房成交增幅较大，重点城市二手房成交面积环比大多下降。 （2）消费方面，乘用车零售日均销量和批发日均销量环比大幅上升，观影 消费低于季节性，出行表现有所分化，全国迁徙规模指数环周回暖，一线 城市地铁客运量环周回落。 生产：工业生产平稳向好，下游开工率回升 （1）中上游方面，螺纹钢开工率基本持平，PTA 开工率与石油沥青装置开 工率环周小幅下降，涤纶长丝开工率环周上升，指向基建开工或边际改善。 （2）下游方面，汽车全钢胎开工率由降转升，半钢胎开工率较上周小幅上 升，半钢胎绝对值仍高于历年同期水平，以旧换新补贴政策支持下短期内 对生产端或有一定支撑。 投资：螺纹钢表观消费偏弱，水泥价格有所回落 螺纹表观消费表现偏弱，螺纹钢价格环周下降，随着下游需求淡季到来， 螺纹钢需求或将呈现环比下滑的态势；水泥发运率下降，水泥库容比上升， 水泥价格有所回落。 贸易：港口吞吐量下降，出口集运价格续涨 （1）出口方面，港口 ...

6月18日至19日，在中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会和上海市人民政府在沪共同主 办的2025陆家嘴论坛上，一系列重磅金融政策举措发布。 其中，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，将实施八项金融开放举措：设立银行间市场交易报告库，设立数 字人民币国际运营中心，设立个人征信机构，在上海临港新片区开展离岸贸易金融服务综合改革试点， 发展自贸离岸债，优化升级自由贸易账户功能，在上海"先行先试"结构性货币政策工具创新，会同证监 会研究推进人民币外汇期货交易。 作为西部经济大省与科技创新高地，四川面临着一方面加快布局先进制造、绿色能源、生物医药等战略 性新兴产业，另一方面推动中小科技企业"专精特新"化发展的双重任务，亟需更加精准的金融支持和制 度供给。 当陆家嘴的政策"暖风"吹至西部腹地，四川该如何承接？顾婧给出了四点建议： 这八项举措，既是国家深化金融改革、强化高水平开放的重要部署，也为地方金融体系提供了有力的政 策引导与现实启示。对于正处于"双转型"关键阶段的四川而言，不仅是信号，更是契机。究竟如何把握 契机、承接好重大政策机遇？川观智库邀请资深专家进行了分析解读。 看政策： 从"工具式开放"向"体系性开放" ...

Core Insights - The convenience and flexibility of RMB cross-border trade financing are expected to improve, promoting the internationalization of the RMB [1][12] - The construction of Shanghai as an international financial center is accelerating [1] Financial Policies and Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced eight policy measures at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, focusing on enhancing financial openness and RMB internationalization [3][4] - Key measures include establishing an interbank market transaction reporting system, a digital RMB international operation center, and offshore trade finance service reforms in the Shanghai Lingang New Area [1][3] Digital RMB Development - The establishment of the digital RMB international operation center aims to facilitate the internationalization of digital RMB and support financial market development [4][7] - The digital RMB can optimize cross-border payment systems by shortening payment chains and improving settlement efficiency [4][12] Offshore Bonds and Trade Financing - The development of offshore trade finance and self-trade offshore bonds is highlighted as a significant opportunity, enhancing the international influence of RMB-denominated bonds [8][9] - The self-trade offshore bond, known as "Pearl Bond," is a key innovation in Shanghai's free trade zone, allowing for both onshore and offshore financing [8] Structural Monetary Policy Innovations - The PBOC proposed to pilot structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai, including blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing [10][11] - These innovations aim to guide funds to key sectors of the real economy and alleviate financing challenges for foreign trade enterprises [11] RMB Foreign Exchange Futures - The PBOC plans to collaborate with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to advance RMB foreign exchange futures trading, enhancing the foreign exchange market product system [13][14] - This initiative is expected to provide better risk management tools for enterprises and reduce reliance on offshore markets [13][14]