Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with a daily decline of 5.3% on October 21, closing at $4124 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop since August 2020 [1][3] - The price of gold reached a low of $4083.15 during the day, falling nearly $300 from its intraday high, which has caused concern among investors [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased approximately 60%, reaching a record high of $4381.21 on October 20, before the dramatic reversal [1][3] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors, reduced safe-haven demand, and subtle changes in the macroeconomic environment [1][3] Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.34% to 98.98, increasing the cost of gold for holders of other currencies, thereby suppressing demand [3] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with expectations for further cuts in December [3] - The sharp decline in gold prices is primarily driven by collective profit-taking at high levels, following a strong year supported by geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases [3][4] Geopolitical Factors - Recent optimistic signals regarding international trade, particularly comments from President Trump about a potential trade agreement with China, have eased market concerns about trade wars [4] - Expectations of a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - Domestic political developments, including the ongoing government shutdown and negotiations to end it, have contributed to market uncertainty, further reducing safe-haven demand for gold [4][5] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a significant bearish reversal, with gold prices breaking through multiple support levels, suggesting a potential reconfiguration of the market [7] - Short-term trading strategies may focus on resistance around $4200 and support levels near $4060 and $4000 [7]

Group 1 - The article maintains a tactical overweight view on A/H shares, supported by multiple factors such as the ongoing enthusiasm for China's technological breakthroughs and emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and capital market reforms that boost market risk appetite [1] - The article highlights that the trade risks are relatively clear, with China's countermeasures directly targeting key issues, and the impact of U.S. tariffs becoming less significant [1] - There is a continuous demand for quality assets in China, driven by the need for investors to "find assets," which may provide allocation opportunities amid external market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The article suggests a tactical benchmark view on U.S. Treasuries, as expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve may lead to a mild decline in real interest rates [1] - The article notes that the balance of credit supply and demand remains unbalanced, which, along with stable liquidity, supports the bond market [2] - The article anticipates that geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion will lead to fluctuations in domestic interest rates, while the marginal improvement in liquidity may stabilize bond market sentiment [2] Group 3 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on the Chinese yuan, citing the resilience of the Chinese economy and the expectation of a stable appreciation of the yuan amid a complex global macro environment [3] - It is expected that the yuan will exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with a stable central tendency [3] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the positive outlook for gold, maintaining a tactical overweight view, as gold prices have surged past key resistance levels due to supportive factors such as Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] - The article predicts that gold will continue to perform well in the short term and has long-term allocation value [2]

市场波动如潮，黄金永远就像一艘稳健的诺亚方舟，自从黄金上一次历史新高4378美元/盎司在经历短暂回调后，现货黄金再度展现其避险魅力。截至2025 年10月20日夜间，国际金价强势突破重返4350美元/盎司关键整数关口上方，较日内低点反弹超逾100美元，日内涨幅达近约2%，盘中一度最高触及现报 4381美元/盎司。这场伦敦金急速拉升并非偶然，而是多重因素共同推动的结果。香港第一金市场部负责人陈生：PPLDYJ （微）将深入剖析黄金本轮反弹 的核心动力、技术面信号及未来走势关键监测点。 01 金价再现凌厉攻势 黄金市场本周伊始便迎来一场"V型反转"。周一亚市早盘，金价曾一度失守4230美元/盎司，但随后买盘涌入，推动价格持续攀升。至欧市时段，金价已收复 全部失地，最终在美市时段突破4350美元大关上方，上演了一场从日内下跌0.54% 到大涨约2% 的逆转行情。这一走势延续了黄金近期的强劲表现。上周伦 敦金现最高曾触及4380.79美元/盎司的历史高点，周涨幅高达5.69%。尽管上周五出现1.8% 的技术性回调，但本周一的强势反弹表明，黄金的上升动能并未 衰竭。 02 三大因素助推金价 避险需求持续升温：美国区域性 ...

图源：皇御贵金属官网 ● 金价涨跌背后，源自多方因素"角力" 金价连续刷新高位源于避险需求、央行购金与货币政策预期三大因素共同助推。10月1日美国联邦政府 陷入停摆，多项经济数据发布中断引发市场担忧，黄金作为避险资产吸引大量资金涌入；与此同时，今 年全球央行对黄金的青睐有增无减，波兰、土耳其、哈萨克斯坦三国年内合计增持超百吨黄金，全球官 方黄金储备需求创下55年来新高，为金价提供了强有力的底层支撑；此外，美联储9月已降息25个基 点，市场对10月再次降息25个基点的预期不断升温，现金持有收益弱化，进一步倒逼资金转向金市，三 重力量叠加推动金价不断冲高。 2025-10-21 10:40:13 作者：狼叫兽 近期国际黄金市场行情火爆，犹如一部跌宕起伏的大片：先是一路飙升突破4059美元/盎司高位，随后 上演超100美元的暴力回调。这种多空激烈博.弈的格局，恰恰为交易者创造了双向获.利土壤。作为一家 拥有香港黄金交易所AA类79号行员资质的正规平台，皇御贵金属同步推出$50000赠金活动，让入市投 资者在把握行情红利的同时收获惊喜福利。 金市短期尽管出现了极致震荡局面，但不改长期牛市逻辑。全球地缘紧张局势根源未除 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is facing downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France and a dovish shift in European Central Bank interest rate expectations [1][2] Group 1: Currency Movements - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently at 1.1572, with a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - The Euro to GBP exchange rate is under pressure, testing the support level of 0.8675, influenced by ongoing political uncertainty in France [1] - The Euro has significantly retraced from a peak of 0.8724 last Friday, indicating a notable decline [1] Group 2: Political Factors - President Macron's refusal to resign amid a new government facing a vote of no confidence is exacerbating market concerns [1] - The political deadlock in France is contributing to the downward pressure on the Euro [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The European Central Bank's shift towards a dovish stance is adding to the pressure on the Euro [1] - There are expectations that the Bank of England may further cut interest rates, with concerns that UK inflation may decline slower than anticipated [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for the Euro show significant downward pressure, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and moving averages trending downwards [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at 1.1630 and 1.1731, while support levels are at 1.1528 and 1.1504 [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 10 月 13 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 贸易摩擦预期升温，市场避险需求上升 核心观点 今年国庆假期国际黄金价格持续上涨。纽约期金和伦敦金突破 4000 美元/盎司关键心理关口，假期涨幅超 4%，年内涨幅超 50%。此 番金价强势表现主要源于三大驱动因素的共振：1. 避险需求激增： 政府停摆与地缘冲突主导；2. 货币政策预期：降息交易与美元信用 受损；3. 资金结构性涌入：央行与 ETF 买盘共振全球央行净购金潮延 续。技术上，持续关注海外金价 4000 美元多空博弈，对应国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The latest round of Sino-US trade frictions since October 2025 is expected to have a significantly weaker impact on the market than the "reciprocal tariff" shock in April 2025, and the resulting fluctuations are relatively limited. In the short term, there should not be overly high expectations for Sino-US trade talks, and the uncertainty of subsequent tariff processes remains relatively high [1]. - Due to Trump's increase in tariffs on China, market risk aversion has significantly increased. The short - term shock is expected to cause a significant decline in A - share, but subsequent domestic policy uncertainties and the possibility of Sino - US leader meetings are expected to support the stock market [3]. - Gold and silver are still strong despite increased volatility. The long - term impact of trade tariff conflicts on precious metals is positive, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the relationship between the risk of following the decline under the liquidity trap and the positive impact of the safe - haven attribute [10]. - For copper, the expected supply shortage and the expected negative impact of tariff policies will compete. In the short term, the policy will disrupt the upward rhythm, and the futures price may enter a high - level shock [15]. - For aluminum, the current core factor affecting the price is the macro - situation. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For investors, it is recommended to operate cautiously, with light positions and small stop - losses. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - The overall supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate futures is expected to show a weakening shock trend in the range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [22]. - For industrial silicon, the price center will rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the price increase is limited due to inventory pressure. For polysilicon, the market risk is relatively high, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [25]. - For steel products, the current overseas macro - environment is under pressure, and the subsequent development of Sino - US trade negotiations will be the core factor affecting asset prices. Currently, the overall situation is bearish [28]. - For iron ore, the short - term fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [29]. - For coking coal and coke, the second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products [30]. - For ferroalloys, the contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. - For crude oil, Trump's tariff threat has triggered market concerns about the economy and oil demand, and factors such as oversupply and weak demand have further intensified the imbalance between supply and demand, causing the oil price center to shift downward and increasing volatility [33]. - For LPG, the risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, but the decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market [36]. - For PTA - PX, the market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment, and the price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - For methanol, in the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150 [41]. - For PP and PE, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44][46]. - For PVC, the supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - For fuel oil, the supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - For asphalt, due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51]. Summaries by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the subsequent progress of Sino - US trade conflicts. After the National Day holiday, the Sino - US trade friction has become the new focus of the market. The current supply - demand policies are advancing in an orderly manner, and there may be incremental policies in the future to promote the stable recovery of prices [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Since October 2025, Sino - US trade frictions have shown a new round of escalation. This friction is expected to have a weaker impact on the market than in April 2025. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index may exist, but the RMB is expected to remain generally stable [1]. - **Stock Index**: Trump's increase in tariffs has hit market risk appetite. The short - term shock is expected to cause a decline in A - share, but subsequent factors are expected to support the stock market. It is recommended to reduce long positions and manage risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Due to Trump's threat to increase tariffs, the market has entered a risk - aversion mode. It is expected that treasury bond futures will open significantly higher today, but whether they can continue to rise depends on the stock market and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider taking profits on previous long positions [4]. - **Container Shipping**: The increase in US tariffs is negative for the market sentiment. In the short term, the futures price is likely to decline, and a relatively bearish strategy or a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy can be adopted [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: They are still strong despite increased volatility. Long - term investment funds' positions and inventory have changed. This week, attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches. It is recommended to hold previous long positions cautiously and consider short - term trading opportunities [10][11]. - **Copper**: After Trump threatened to increase tariffs, copper prices fell. The supply shortage expectation and the tariff policy expectation will compete. In the short term, the price may be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels and consider option strategies [12][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, the macro - policy is the core factor affecting the price. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - **Zinc**: The price is suppressed by both the macro - situation and fundamentals. In the short term, a bearish logic is adopted, and an internal - external reverse spread strategy can be considered after the export window opens [18]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: They may be affected by tariffs. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is restricted, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of tariffs [19]. - **Tin**: It is expected to experience a short - term correction. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to grow. The futures price is expected to show a weakening shock trend in a certain range [22]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, and the polysilicon market is mainly focused on the establishment of the storage platform in October and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. High risks are involved, and cautious participation is recommended [25]. - **Lead**: The macro - uncertainty has increased, and both supply and demand have increased. The price is expected to remain volatile with a certain downward possibility [26]. Black Metals - **Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Sino - US trade friction has escalated, and the steel market is bearish. The subsequent development of Sino - US trade and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session need to be focused on. It is recommended to buy options to layout for increased volatility [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, the downstream iron - water demand has support, but the steel demand is weak, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing. The price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [28][29]. - **Coking Coal, Coke**: The second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products. A unilateral shock approach and a coking coal 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy can be considered [30]. - **Silicon Iron, Silicon Manganese**: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's tariff threat has caused the oil price to fall to a five - month low. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The oil price center is expected to shift downward, and volatility will increase [32][33]. - **LPG**: The decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market. The risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, and the domestic chemical demand is stable [36]. - **PTA - PX**: The market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment. The price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150. It is recommended to buy a small bottom position at low prices [41]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44]. - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is continuously loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [46]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - **Pure Benzene, Styrene**: The short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - **Asphalt**: Due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, from September 26 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% to 1.775%. Considering the decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the fact that the manufacturing PMI has not returned above the boom - bust line, the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The interest - rate decline days in the bond market due to the second "tariff war" may be less than a week, and investors are advised to trade cautiously, maintaining the view that interest rates have a ceiling and a floor this year [10][15]. - After the release of a series of US data in October, including EIA crude oil inventory, consumer credit change, etc., the current main market trend still revolves around computing power and electricity. Monetary policy expectations in countries such as the US and Japan may extend the bubble period and boost the prices of gold and resource - related products while increasing inflation expectations. The increase in US crude oil inventory and the weakness in consumer credit and consumer confidence may suppress oil prices and put the Fed in a "dilemma" in terms of interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Bond Trading Opportunities Amid the Escalation of the Sino - US Trade War - From September 29 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% on September 26 to 1.775%. During the week, factors such as policy announcements, PMI data, and central bank operations affected the yield fluctuations. The decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the sub - par manufacturing PMI suggest that the economic recovery foundation needs repair, and the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The second "tariff war" has led to a decline in interest rates, but the duration may be less than a week [10][11][15]. 3.1.2 Future Changes in US Treasury Yields After Data Release - The current market is sensitive to external disturbances. The main trend still focuses on computing power and electricity. The increase in US crude oil inventory, weak consumer credit, and low consumer confidence may suppress oil prices. The Fed is in a "dilemma" regarding interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In the open - market operations from September 29 to October 10, 2025, the total net investment was - 7281 billion yuan. The money - market interest rates showed certain changes. The issuance and yields of interest - rate bonds also had corresponding fluctuations [28][30][33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices declined comprehensively, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices rose. The total trading area of commercial housing decreased. The VIX fear index led the gains, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the losses. The US Treasury yields declined overall, and the dollar index led the gains while the yen led the losses [51][52][65]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the week from September 29 to October 10, 2025, 27 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 825.28 billion yuan, including 566.38 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 159.69 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 99.20 billion yuan in new general bonds. The net financing amount was 386.37 billion yuan. Seven provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds, and no local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of such bonds has reached 19,649.46 billion yuan. The total early - redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 5.00 billion yuan, all from Chongqing [81][84][88]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The current stock of local government bonds is 53.49 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 771.54 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.14%. The top three provinces with the most active local government bond trading are Guangdong, Inner Mongolia, and Hebei, and the top three active trading terms are 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local government bonds generally increased [91][94][95]. 3.3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month - Relevant local government bond issuance plans are presented in the form of a chart, but specific numerical details are not further described in the text [97]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the primary market this week, 90 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 771.59 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 1,865.20 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 1,093.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,859.60 billion yuan compared to last week. By type, urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of - 554.32 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of - 539.29 billion yuan [99][100]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds was 1.6622%, a decrease of 2.73bp; the issuance interest rate of medium - term notes was 2.2088%, a decrease of 3.95bp; and the issuance interest rate of corporate bonds was 2.1900%, a decrease of 4.16bp [108]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Trading Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 1,604.13 billion yuan. By rating, the trading volume of AAA - rated bonds was the largest, reaching 1,113.18 billion yuan [110]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds declined comprehensively. The yields of short - term financing and medium - term notes and corporate bonds generally declined, while the yields of urban investment bonds generally increased [111][113][116]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the credit spreads of corporate bonds generally narrowed, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [120][121][126]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened [130][132][136]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds in each category are listed, including short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, etc. Most of the highly - traded bonds are AAA - rated [142]. 3.4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - The credit ratings of two issuers were upgraded this week, namely Xiangtan Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Jiangyou Hongfei Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. There were no bonds with downgraded ratings or outlooks [145].

宝城期货分析指出，短期以色列与哈马斯达成停火协议，导致地缘政治紧张情绪迅速降温，叠加前期已 录得较大涨幅，短期多头了结意愿较强。今年国庆假期国际黄金价格持续上涨。纽约期金和伦敦金突破 4000美元/盎司关键心理关口，假期涨幅超4%，年内涨幅超50%。此番金价强势表现主要源于三大驱动 因素的共振：1.避险需求激增：政府停摆与地缘冲突主导；2.货币政策预期：降息交易与美元信用受 损；3.构性涌入：央行与ETF买盘共振全球央行净购金潮延续。技术上，持续关注海外金价4000美元多 空博弈，对应国内900元关口。 10月9日，受地缘冲突缓和影响，金价冲高回落，纽约金和伦敦金均跌破4000美元关口，截至收盘， COMEX黄金期货跌1.95%报3991.10美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨4.53%，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨8.95%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term and medium - term increases and an intraday view of being oscillating strongly, driven by the start of interest rate cuts and intensified geopolitical situations [1][3] - Copper is expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with short - term, medium - term and intraday increases, due to a macro - loose background, renewed mining end disturbances and a rapid rise in capital attention [1][5] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: During the 2025 National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), international gold prices continuously rose. New York gold futures and London gold broke through the $4000/ounce key psychological level, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50% [3] - **Core Driving Factors**: There are three main driving factors. Firstly, the surge in避险需求 is dominated by government shutdown and geopolitical conflicts. The US federal government shutdown since October 1 has raised concerns about US fiscal sustainability and debt credit, and historical data shows that gold has positive returns when the government shutdown exceeds 10 days. Geopolitical events such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Middle - East conflicts, Japanese political changes and French prime minister's resignation have also weakened sovereign currency confidence. Secondly, in terms of monetary policy expectations, interest rate cut trading and damaged US dollar credit are at play. Trump's interference in the Fed's independence and rising US debt risks have accelerated the "de - dollarization" trend. Thirdly, there is a structural influx of funds, with central banks and ETFs buying gold together, and the global central bank net gold - buying wave continues [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: During the National Day holiday, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price broke through $10500 and reached $10800, hitting a new high for the year [5] - **Core Driving Factors**: There are three main factors. Supply is tight due to double squeezes at the mining and smelting ends. The major accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia and previous production cuts in Chilean copper mines have tightened the global copper concentrate supply. From a macro and financial perspective, there are expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and a weakening US dollar. The Fed cut interest rates in September, and further cuts are expected, which will boost market risk sentiment and may weaken the US dollar, benefiting copper prices. There is also a link between risk - aversion sentiment and the sector. The US government shutdown and global geopolitical turmoil have driven up the gold price, which has a positive impact on copper. On the demand side, there is demand resilience. In the domestic "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, the copper product industry's operating rate has rebounded, and grid investment, air - conditioning and motor industries have stable demand. In the long - term, global energy transformation, especially AI computing center construction and grid investment, strongly supports copper demand [5]