国际现货黄金价格22日盘中突破每盎司4420美元，创历史新高，有望创40多年来最佳年度表现。 现货金价当天一度涨至每盎司4420.47美元。美国彭博新闻社报道，交易员预计，一系列美国经济数据 上周公布后，美国联邦储备委员会将在2026年降息两次。 作者: 卜晓明 除央行外，投资者同样在金价上涨中发挥重要作用。受"贬值交易"推动，即出于对主权债券及其计价货 币价值的担忧，投资者纷纷撤离这些资产。美国《华尔街日报》10月报道，担忧美元等货币前景的投资 者正大举买入黄金等替代性资产。 美国高盛银行本月18日发布的研报预期，到2026年年底，金价将涨至每盎司4900美元。该行补充说，这 一预测存在低估风险，并提到私人投资者可能出现更广泛的多元化资产配置需求。 在另一份概述2026年大宗商品前景的研报中，高盛预计央行购金的高需求以及美联储降息带来的周期性 支撑，将继续为金价上涨奠定基础，建议做多黄金。 来源：新华社 与此同时，美国总统特朗普一直主张采取更为宽松的货币政策。利率下行通常会给不用支付利息的贵金 属提供支撑。 近几周来，地缘政治持续紧张同样增强黄金和白银的避险吸引力。美国多家媒体21日报道，美国海岸警 卫队当 ...

12 月起，15 万以上存款要注意！银行存款大调整，这 5 个变化直接影响你的钱袋子 手里有 15 万以上存款的家庭，大多是这样的情况：可能是刚工作几年的年轻人攒下的买房首付，就想稳稳存着不贬值；或是工薪家庭的应急备用金，既要 随时能用又想赚点利息；还有不少是长辈的养老补贴，只认银行存款这种稳妥渠道。可 2025 年 12 月起，银行存款市场变天了 —— 利率一降再降、高息产 品难抢、监管还越来越严，这 5 个变化直接影响你的钱袋子，不管是存钱还是用钱，都得提前摸清门道。 一、利率持续 "往下走"，15 万存三年少赚 1350 元 现在银行存款利率跌得越来越明显，以前能拿到 2.75% 的三年期利率，现在想找 2.5% 以上都得碰运气，15 万存三年，利息缩水可不是小数目： 年初时，15 万三年期定存利率 2.75%，一年利息能拿 4125 元； 现在国有大行三年期利率直接降到 1.3%，一年利息只剩 1950 元，一年少赚 2175 元，三年累计少拿 6525 元 —— 这笔钱够给家里换台新家电，或是覆盖大 半年的物业费和水电费了。 更让人闹心的是 "利息可能跑不赢物价"。现在 CPI 常年在 2?% 之间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for the Chinese stock market is positive, with expectations of a rebound in earnings growth from a low base in 2025, leading to an upgrade in valuation attractiveness [1] Group 1: Chinese Stock Market - Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position on Chinese stocks, predicting the Hang Seng Index to range between 28,000 and 30,000 points over the next 12 months [1] - If investment sentiment deteriorates or if there is insufficient policy support, the index could drop to a range of 26,000 to 28,000 points [1] - Concerns about asset valuation and potential bubbles in artificial intelligence capital expenditure may increase next year, with volatility being more significant than the bubble debate [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times next year, with a potential total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] - The macroeconomic outlook remains favorable for risk assets, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company suggests a diversified investment strategy, recommending an overweight position in gold and global equities while reducing exposure to European (excluding the UK) and Japanese stocks [1] - India is recommended for an overweight position due to its favorable outlook [1] Group 4: Emerging Bonds and Gold - The company is overweight on emerging market bonds, expecting them to outperform developed markets as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields may fall to between 3.75% and 4% over the next 12 months [2] - Gold is anticipated to challenge new highs, with spot gold potentially reaching $4,800 next year as central banks and investors seek alternatives to the dollar [2]

高盛分享2026年五大关键投资主题，涵盖人工智能投资周期的转折、美联储领导层更迭对美元的影响、大宗商品战略价值重估、投资组合多元 化的必要性以及欧洲市场的结构性转变。 在本周美股基准股指回归高位、市场消化完今年主要风险之际，高盛顶级交易员Mark Wilson提出了2026年五大关键投资主题。 高盛认为明年美联储主席的更迭被视为潜在的关键转折点。市场普遍预期哈塞特将接任，这可能导致美联储允许经济"过热运行"，通胀考量将 让位于名义增长，并可能引发美元持续走弱。高盛外汇团队已预测2026年美元将大幅贬值。 在人工智能投资方面，高盛认为市场正处于"序幕的尾声"。那种认为AI价值创造主要归于大语言模型、以及所有与AI相关资产普涨的时代可 能已经结束。受益者的分化正在加剧——提供算力硬件、数据中心、电力等基础设施的企业，以及成功部署AI并证明生产率提升的公司，仍将 保持吸引力。 在资产配置上，鉴于美股估值处于二十五年来相对全球市场最高水平、指数高度集中、以及美元可能结构性走弱，高盛强调多元化配置的重要 性。 交易主题一：AI故事处于"序幕的终章" 高盛将当前的AI投资周期比作现代版"太空竞赛"。 华尔街见闻提及，11 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that for the first time in at least 50 years, both gold and U.S. stocks have experienced explosive growth simultaneously, suggesting the potential for a bubble, which is often followed by periods of negative or low returns [2][13] - As of December 8, the S&P 500 index has risen over 16% year-to-date, while spot gold has increased nearly 60% against the dollar [2][13] - On December 9, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.38%, the Nasdaq up 0.13%, and the S&P 500 down 0.09% [2][13] Group 2 - Institutions have differing views on gold prices; Fitch's BMI predicts that gold prices may fall below $4,000 per ounce in the second half of 2026, while UBS, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan remain optimistic, forecasting prices above $4,700 per ounce, potentially reaching $5,200 to $5,300 [2][7][18] - The report highlights that both the S&P 500 index and gold prices have entered an explosive growth phase, which historically has been followed by significant corrections [3][14] Group 3 - Gold has seen continuous growth for over three years, achieving a more than 13% increase in 2023 and over 26% in 2024, with a year-to-date increase nearing 60% as of December 8, 2025 [5][16] - Silver has also shown remarkable growth, with spot silver reaching a historical high of $60.641 per ounce on December 9 [5][16] Group 4 - The report notes that the rise in gold prices is driven by two main factors: diversification of assets and the trend of de-dollarization, as well as gold's role as a crucial safe-haven asset during periods of high inflation and geopolitical instability [6][17] - Retail investors are increasingly influencing the market, often acting contrary to institutional investors, which may pose a risk to market stability [4][15] Group 5 - Financial institutions are advising investors to enhance risk management due to the uncertainty in gold price trends, with several banks raising investment thresholds for precious metals [19] - UBS believes that gold prices will continue to rise in 2026, with an average target price of $4,675, and significant increases expected in the first half of the year [20]

Core Insights - Hong Kong has emerged as a crucial hub for global capital flows, serving both as a safe haven for investors and a key player in the globalization of Asian capital markets [1][2] - The global asset management industry is experiencing a strong rebound, with assets under management reaching $128 trillion in 2024, marking a 12% year-on-year increase [1] - The Asia-Pacific region (excluding Australia and Japan) has also seen significant growth, with asset management size reaching $25 trillion, reflecting a similar 12% growth [1] Group 1: International Asset Management Strategies - Major international asset management firms are increasingly focusing on Hong Kong as a strategic anchor for their Asian operations, leveraging its unique institutional advantages and financial ecosystem [2][3] - PIMCO has established a strong presence in Asia over the past 30 years, with Hong Kong serving as a core hub for connecting with mainland markets [3] - Future Asset from South Korea has made significant investments in Hong Kong's IPO market, focusing on high-growth sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors, with a total investment of HKD 12.46 billion [4][5] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable shift in investor sentiment towards Asian equities, with many reallocating funds from heavily weighted U.S. stocks to Asian markets, particularly China [6][7] - The valuation of Chinese stocks remains attractive, with global investors actively participating in both cornerstone investments and secondary market trading [7] - The Hong Kong ETF market has become the third-largest globally by average daily trading volume, with a management scale of HKD 653.5 billion, reflecting a 34.1% year-on-year growth [5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector in Hong Kong has experienced volatility due to shifts in global AI investment logic, but the IPO market remains robust, driven by the fundraising needs of Chinese enterprises [8] - The pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong benefits from a strong long-term investment thesis, supported by cost advantages and efficiency derived from the local workforce [9]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by central bank demand and ETF purchases, with a potential for significant price increases if retail investors diversify into gold [1][2] Group 1: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into Western ETFs and ongoing central bank purchases as key drivers [1][3] - The firm expects gold prices to increase by nearly 20% by the end of 2026, although this growth rate is lower than the nearly 60% increase observed in 2023 [1] Group 2: Drivers of Demand - The primary driver of gold demand is the structural increase in central bank purchases, particularly from emerging markets, which are diversifying their reserves into gold following the freezing of Russian central bank assets [1][3] - The second key driver is the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are expected to lead to increased investments in gold ETFs as gold is a non-yielding asset [1][2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current gold market is relatively small compared to the U.S. bond market, with global gold ETF holdings being only one-seventieth of the U.S. bond market, indicating that even a small shift in investment could significantly impact gold prices [1] - The ongoing trend of central banks shifting reserves from U.S. dollars to gold is expected to continue, with central bank gold purchases projected to reach 80 tons in 2025 and maintain at 70 tons in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company believes that Bitcoin, as a benchmark asset in the cryptocurrency market, has strong long-term investment value following a recent market adjustment, leading to a planned investment of up to $5 million in Bitcoin [1] Group 1: Investment Plan - The company plans to purchase Bitcoin on public cryptocurrency trading platforms for a total amount not exceeding $5 million, equivalent to approximately HKD 39 million [1] - The potential investment cost will be determined based on the market buying price of Bitcoin and will be funded through internal resources [1] - The investment aims to diversify the company's asset allocation [1] Group 2: Current Holdings - As of the announcement date, the company has already purchased approximately 24.29 units of Bitcoin at an average buying price of $82,338, totaling around $2 million, equivalent to approximately HKD 15.6 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company believes that Bitcoin has strong long-term investment value following a phase of adjustment in the global cryptocurrency market, leading to a planned investment of up to $5 million in Bitcoin [1] Group 1: Investment Plan - The company plans to purchase Bitcoin on public cryptocurrency trading platforms for a total amount not exceeding $5 million, equivalent to approximately HKD 39 million [1] - The potential investment cost will be determined based on the market buying price of Bitcoin and will be funded through the company's internal resources [1] - The investment aims to diversify the company's asset allocation [1] Group 2: Current Holdings - As of the announcement date, the company has already purchased approximately 24.29 units of Bitcoin at an average buying price of $82,338, totaling around $2 million, equivalent to approximately HKD 15.6 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, New Fire Technology Holdings, has announced a plan to invest up to $5 million in Bitcoin, recognizing its strong long-term investment value following a recent adjustment in the global cryptocurrency market [1] Group 1: Investment Plan - The board of directors has conducted a comprehensive analysis of the market environment, industry trends, and the company's business strategy before making the investment decision [1] - The planned investment amount is not to exceed $5 million, equivalent to approximately HKD 39 million [1] - The investment will be funded using the company's internal resources and will be based on the market price of Bitcoin at the time of purchase [1] Group 2: Current Holdings - As of the announcement date, the company has already purchased approximately 24.29 units of Bitcoin at an average price of $82,338, totaling around $2 million, equivalent to approximately HKD 15.6 million [1] - The potential investment aims to diversify the company's asset allocation [1]