Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of China's domestic capital market to consolidate its recovery and positive momentum [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Market Development Direction - The development direction of the capital market aligns with the spirit of the 20th National Congress and various central economic meetings, focusing on high-quality development [1][3]. - The chief economist of China Galaxy Securities noted improvements in the intrinsic quality and allocation efficiency of the capital market this year, highlighting the need for further reforms to support technological innovation [1][3]. Group 2: Attractiveness and Inclusiveness - Enhancing the capital market's attractiveness involves improving investor appeal, market stability, and the quality of listed companies while protecting investor rights [3][4]. - The capital market's role in supporting technological innovation and industrial transformation needs to be strengthened, with a focus on meeting the needs of technology-driven enterprises [3][4]. Group 3: External Factors and Market Stability - Despite external uncertainties, the A-share market has remained stable and has shown signs of recovery, supported by domestic policy measures [4][5]. - Foreign investment institutions have raised their optimistic expectations for China's economy and capital market, indicating a shift in perception towards Chinese assets [4][5]. Group 4: Reforms and Policy Measures - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has accelerated comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, facilitating the entry of long-term capital into the market [8][10]. - Significant reforms have been implemented, including enhancing the quality of listed companies and promoting mergers and acquisitions, with record high dividends and buybacks reported [8][10]. Group 5: Future Directions - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms to enhance the capital market's attractiveness and inclusiveness, focusing on long-term capital cultivation and multi-tiered product offerings [10][12]. - High-level institutional openness is essential for attracting foreign investment, with recent data showing a stable increase in foreign holdings of domestic stocks and funds [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized a focus on stabilizing the economy rather than stimulating it, indicating that the policy direction will prioritize implementation over new initiatives, while remaining flexible to adjust if unexpected situations arise [1][2] Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The meeting highlighted that the economic performance in the first half of the year was positive despite trade tensions, with major economic indicators showing good results and new productive forces developing positively [1] - The emphasis on high-quality urban renewal in the real estate sector was noted as a key strategy to stabilize the market, requiring further observation from policymakers [1] - The meeting introduced a new focus on enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to attract both domestic and foreign investors, particularly for technology innovation enterprises [1] Group 2: 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans - The 15th Five-Year Plan is characterized as a critical period for achieving decisive progress in socialist modernization, shifting from a focus on stability and risk prevention during the 14th Five-Year Plan to a more proactive approach [2] - The meeting underscored the need for active responses to changes and challenges in international competition, with a focus on technological innovation and common prosperity [2] - The strategic direction for the 15th Five-Year Plan includes more proactive policies in areas such as foreign openness, industrial policy, and distribution policy, aiming to consolidate the economic foundation and activate development momentum [2]

Group 1 - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, indicating a positive stance towards stabilizing and boosting market confidence [2][4][5] - The meeting highlighted the importance of actively and steadily resolving local government debt risks, with a focus on increasing the efficiency of fund usage from government bonds [3][4] - The meeting introduced the term "clearing" regarding local financing platforms, indicating a stronger commitment from the central government to reform these platforms [4][5] Group 2 - The meeting signaled a shift in macro policy focus from new measures to the implementation of existing policies, with an emphasis on the timely execution of fiscal policies [5][6] - The discussion on real estate policies shifted towards long-term development, with a focus on high-quality urban renewal rather than immediate new measures [5][7] - The meeting reiterated the need for strict supervision to prevent the emergence of new hidden debts, maintaining a cautious regulatory tone [3][4]

Group 1 - The meeting highlighted that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for solidifying the foundation for socialist modernization and comprehensive development, indicating that the next five years will focus on concentrated reforms and development tasks [1][4] - The emphasis on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight suggests that policy formulation and execution will be more responsive to trends and uncertainties, improving precision and effectiveness [1][4][5] - The call to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market signals the central government's strong commitment to capital market development, with potential reforms in areas such as listings, delistings, trading mechanisms, and investor protection [1][4] Group 2 - The meeting's focus on not merely pursuing GDP growth but rather emphasizing growth quality, efficiency, and sustainability reflects a strategic shift in economic policy [3][11] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts and the possibility of issuing special government bonds to stimulate consumption and investment indicates a proactive approach to economic challenges [5][6] - The discussion on maintaining a stable housing market and managing mortgage default risks highlights the importance of risk management in the real estate sector, with a focus on improving the financing environment for property developers [10]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized a focus on stabilizing the economy rather than stimulating it, indicating that the policy direction will prioritize implementation over new initiatives, while remaining open to adjustments if unexpected situations arise [2][3]. Economic Policy Focus - The meeting highlighted that the economic performance in the first half of the year was positive despite external challenges, with major economic indicators showing good results and a strong resilience in the economy [2]. - The real estate sector will focus on high-quality urban renewal as the main strategy, with further observation needed from policymakers to promote stabilization [2]. - The concept of "anti-involution" has gained importance, with a shift in language from "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "advancing capacity governance in key industries," indicating a move towards market-oriented solutions [2]. Capital Market Insights - A new emphasis on "enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market" was introduced, aiming to attract both domestic and foreign investors while broadening financing channels for technology-driven enterprises [2]. - Continued high-level attention to the capital market suggests that support from state-owned entities will be more sustainable moving forward [2]. Strategic Planning for the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans - The 15th Five-Year Plan is positioned as a critical period for achieving decisive progress in socialist modernization, with a focus on proactive measures in various policy areas including openness, industrial policy, and distribution policy [3]. - The meeting underscored the need for active adaptation to changes and competition in the international arena, marking a shift from foundational planning to actionable breakthroughs [3]. - The emphasis on consolidating the economic foundation and activating development momentum is crucial for ensuring strategic breakthroughs in modernization efforts [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, indicating a commitment to stabilize and improve the market's performance [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the A-share market saw the three major indices reach new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting 3636 points, just 40 points shy of last year's peak [3]. - On July 31, the A-share indices collectively adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3600 points, closing down 1.18% [9][10]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Politburo meeting's focus on enhancing market attractiveness is a new high for the importance of the capital market, aiming to attract both domestic and international investors [3][6]. - The meeting highlighted the need for continuous policy stability while enhancing flexibility and predictability, aligning with investor expectations [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the capital market's attractiveness can be improved by optimizing basic systems to boost investor confidence and supporting diverse financing needs for different types of enterprises [7][8]. - There is a call for deepening investment reforms to attract more investors and enhance the wealth effect of the capital market, including encouraging dividends and share buybacks [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend in the medium to long term, supported by favorable policies and economic performance, despite short-term adjustments [10][11]. - Analysts predict that the small-cap style will perform better in early August, while large-cap stocks may gain traction as companies begin to disclose their semi-annual earnings [11].

Group 1 - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting has set a clear direction for economic work in the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [1] - The new emphasis on "enhancing attractiveness" marks a significant elevation of the capital market's importance, which is expected to boost market sentiment and alleviate concerns regarding domestic and external demand declines [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that the meeting's positive signals will support a continued upward trend in the domestic equity market, while the bond market remains favorable due to expected loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The Huian Quality Selected Incremental Bond Fund is gaining attention as it allows for a minimum stock allocation of 5%, compared to traditional secondary bond funds which typically have a stock allocation of 0-20% [2] - The new fund has a 6-month construction period, allowing for flexible adjustments to the investment portfolio based on market conditions, which can help in accumulating quality assets [2] - The performance benchmark for the fund is based on a combination of high-quality credit bonds from central enterprises and dividend quality indices, emphasizing profitability and growth potential [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend - bearish products such as aluminum, zinc, and alumina; products with a bias towards a downward - oscillating trend like liquefied petroleum gas; oscillating products including thirty - year bonds and sugar; products with a bias towards an upward - oscillating trend such as crude oil and fuel oil; and no products with a trend - bullish view [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, there are products with a bearish bias like corn starch and glass; oscillating products such as Shanghai gold and palm oil; and products with a bullish bias like Shanghai lead and Shanghai copper [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - China's policies include implementing more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, addressing local government debt risks, and enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US imposed tariffs on multiple products. China plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for parenting subsidies, and relevant industries plan to control over - capacity [9][10][11]. Stock Index Futures - Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. If it is not broken, the trend will continue. The A - share market showed mixed trends, and the capital market has new policy expressions. Be cautious about the movement of profit - taking funds [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Policy implementation may repair inflation expectations, and the bond market may rebound. Pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level. In the medium term, consider shorting on rallies [15]. Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also downward price pressures. Be cautious in operation [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Costs vary, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and it is advisable to be bearish on rallies [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass can be put on hold after closing long positions. Pay attention to supply - side resumption and demand improvement [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels, and alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Both can be shorted on rallies [21]. - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and zinc prices will oscillate downward due to increased supply and weak demand [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will mainly oscillate due to limited supply - side disturbances and weakening macro - sentiment [23]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It will maintain an oscillating trend, and the core contradiction lies in the resumption progress of leading manufacturers [24]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a strong policy expectation but a weak supply - demand reality. Be cautious in operation and pay attention to policy implementation and inventory generation [25]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is advisable to be bearish on rallies and pay attention to macro and supply - demand changes [26]. Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic sugar prices are under pressure from imports but supported by low domestic inventories. It will follow international sugar prices [29]. - **Eggs**: Eggs are in a seasonal upward trend, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to position control [33]. - **Apples**: Consider a long - spread strategy and pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [34]. - **Corn**: Corn prices will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to market sentiment and policy impacts [34]. - **Red Dates**: Observe the fruit - setting situation in the production area and changes in the market [37]. - **Hogs**: Short near - month contracts and consider a reverse - spread strategy. The short - term market is supply - strong and demand - weak [37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may shift to a supply - exceeding - demand pattern. In the short term, it may rebound due to sanctions on Russia. Pay attention to sanctions and peak - season demand [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows crude oil prices. The cracking profit is weakening, and pay attention to the impact of power generation demand and shipping [41]. - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is advisable to be slightly bearish after a rebound [43]. - **Methanol**: It follows the overall commodity trend and is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider holding put options or being slightly bearish [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures may be strong in the short term [45]. - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August [46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is significantly affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Consider shorting on rallies [48]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It rebounds with crude oil but is weaker. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - long term [49]. - **Pulp**: It will oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions [50]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are supply - and - demand weak. Be cautious about chasing high prices and consider hedging strategies [51]. - **Urea**: Be bearish as enterprise inventories increase and the market is weak [52].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the need for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to consolidate the positive momentum in the market [1][3][4] - The A-share market showed a steady upward trend in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 2.76%, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index slightly increasing by 0.49% and 0.53% respectively [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of macro policies continuing to exert force, effectively releasing domestic demand potential, and deepening reforms while ensuring the stability of foreign trade and investment [2][3] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) noted that the capital market has shown resilience against unexpected external shocks, with improved expectations and a solidifying upward trend [2] - Suggestions for enhancing the capital market's attractiveness include institutional arrangements to attract long-term funds and ensuring that financing opportunities are available for innovative companies [4][5] - The focus on technology innovation and the integration of industrial innovation is crucial for supporting the listing of quality unprofitable innovative enterprises [4]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and be appropriately strengthened, focusing on effective release of domestic demand potential and deepening reforms [1][4] - The current economic situation is characterized by strong resilience, with GDP growth in the first half of the year reaching 5.3%, surpassing market expectations [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3] Group 2 - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, with over 2.2 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds issued by the end of June [5] - Emphasis was placed on structural support in monetary policy, particularly for small and micro enterprises, to stabilize employment and residents' income [5][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is centered on promoting consumption, particularly in the service sector, which is expected to play a significant role in stabilizing employment and expanding demand [6] Group 3 - The meeting proposed to deepen the construction of a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition [7] - There is a need for timely support policies for foreign trade enterprises affected by external uncertainties, including financial support and optimizing export tax rebate policies [8][9] - The meeting emphasized the importance of effectively and orderly addressing local government debt risks and prohibiting the addition of new hidden debts [10] Group 4 - The meeting aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, focusing on improving investment return expectations and resource allocation [11] - Suggestions were made to lower operational thresholds for capital market support tools and to create new financial instruments to stabilize the capital market [11]