证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 01 日 1 月 PMI：生产蓄力开门红 —2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 1 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，重返 收缩区间。从结构上看，制造业企业生产指数有所放缓但仍处于扩张区间， 而市场有效需求仍显不足，生产存在蓄力开门红特征。从行业角度来看，消 费品制造业生产指数放缓拖累较多，但装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的 新动能仍处于扩张区间。 1 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，非制造业商务活动指数亦有所回落。 综合来看，随着春节临近，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，建筑业景气下降， 1 月经济活动相较上月总体放缓。 ❑ 1 月生产放缓但仍处于扩张区间，蓄力开门红 1 月生产指数 50.6%，比上月回落 1.1 个百分点，仍处于扩张区间，表明制造业生 产活动保持扩张，此外，生产相关的原材料库存量回落、用工景气平稳。1 月生产 指数下降的首要原因是消费品制造业生产指数较上月下降超过 4 个百分点至 50% 以下，拖累整体生产指数运行，显示消费品制造业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is implementing a large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in policy for 2026, supported by long-term special government bonds, aimed at driving high-quality economic development in the region [1][2] Group 1: Equipment Renewal - The policy expands the scope of equipment renewal to include not only industrial and electronic information sectors but also public welfare areas such as the installation of elevators in old residential communities, facilities for elderly care, and fire rescue equipment [1] - Support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is emphasized, with optimized application conditions and reduced investment thresholds to enhance technological upgrades and production capacity [1] - Key areas for equipment updates include the scrapping and replacement of old operational trucks with low-emission or electric vehicles, and the acceleration of the replacement of new energy city buses and power batteries to promote green urban transportation [1] Group 2: Consumer Goods Trade-in - A multi-category subsidy scheme for consumer goods trade-in is introduced, covering automobiles, home appliances, and digital smart products, with funding shared between the central government (95%) and the autonomous region (5%) [2] - In the automotive sector, consumers can receive a subsidy of 12% (up to 20,000 yuan) for purchasing new energy vehicles after scrapping their old cars, and 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) for purchasing fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [2] - For home appliances and digital products, consumers can receive a 15% subsidy on the final price for energy-efficient appliances, with a maximum of 1,500 yuan per item, and similar subsidies for digital products priced under 6,000 yuan [2]

今年的消费品以旧换新政策已落地实施1个月，2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换 新资金计划，带动各地消费市场持续"焕新"。各地和线上线下平台推出配套活动和服务，为消费者提供 更多便利。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the national government fund budget revenue is projected to be 5.77 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7% compared to 2024, while the expenditure is expected to rise to 11.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.3% from 2024, indicating a focus on accelerating the use of bond funds to enhance economic growth [1] Group 1 - The total expenditure for special long-term government bonds, local government special bonds, and central financial institution capital injection special bonds is projected to be 6.19 trillion yuan in 2025, which is an increase of 1.69 trillion yuan or 37.6% compared to 2024 [1] - The increase in expenditure is aimed at enhancing economic development momentum and promoting a sustained recovery in the economy [1]

Employment and Labor Market - In 2025, the new urban employment reached 12.67 million, with an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.2%, indicating overall stability in the employment situation [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to implement new employment policies for youth, including college graduates, and enhance recruitment activities [1] - Measures will be taken to support migrant workers and improve employment assistance for vulnerable groups, including veterans [1] Energy Sector - In 2025, 7,084 out of 7,480 key energy-consuming units passed energy measurement reviews, achieving a compliance rate of 94.71% [1] - The energy measurement reviews aim for full coverage of key energy-consuming units during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Financial Sector - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year is set at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months [2] - The People's Bank of China indicates there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [2] Consumer Finance - The implementation period for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended to the end of 2026, with a 1% annual subsidy rate for eligible consumption [4] - The policy now includes credit card installment payments as part of the support scope [4] Tourism Sector - The 2026 version of the team tourism contract template will be implemented nationwide starting March 31, 2026, focusing on enhancing service quality and consumer protection [5] Investment and Economic Development - A special guarantee plan for private investment totaling 500 billion yuan will be implemented over two years to support small and micro enterprises [6] - The plan aims to provide loan guarantees for various business activities, including equipment purchases and digital transformation [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - In 2025, the National Medical Products Administration approved 76 innovative drugs, with 30 of them successfully entering the national medical insurance directory, achieving a coverage rate of 70% for new drugs approved in the first half of the year [6] Fiscal Policy - In 2025, the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 1.3 trillion yuan to support consumption and economic transformation [7] - The funds are allocated for consumer subsidies and to stimulate sales in related sectors, enhancing the quality of life for citizens [7] Regulatory Framework - The National Supervisory Commission will implement the "Regulations on the Disclosure of Supervisory Work Information" starting March 1, 2026, to enhance transparency in supervisory activities [8] Economic Strategy - The National Development and Reform Commission is developing plans to stabilize employment and increase residents' income, which are crucial for boosting domestic demand [8]

来源：北京日报客户端 1月25日上午，北京市第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议在北京会议中心开幕。市长殷勇作政府工作报 告。 在回顾2025年工作时，报告提出，北京着力优化新供给扩大新需求，因地制宜用好"两重""两新"政策， 积极争取超长期特别国债等各类资金，推进地方政府专项债"自审自发"试点；优化投融资体制机制，面 向民间资本推介重大项目总投资约2350亿元；深入推进国际消费中心城市建设，深化境外人员服务便利 化改革，入境游客增长39%，全市旅游人次和收入再创历史新高，数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费蓬勃 发展，服务消费增长5%。 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者李明会 北京报道 1月22日，国家发改委官网发布消息称，近日，2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新资金 已经下达，支持工业、能源电力、教育、医疗等多个领域约4500个项目，带动总投资超过4600亿元。 考虑到此前已下达的第一批支持消费品以旧换新的625亿元资金，合计已有1561亿元超长期特别国债资 金精准落地"两新"领域。 国家发展改革委表示，下一步，国家发展改革委将会同各有关方面，持续做好统筹协调和跟踪调度，加 强设备更新项目和资金全链条管理，扎实推进项目建设，加快提升资金使用效率，进一步发挥"两新"政 策效能。 此前2026年"两新"政策安排已经发布，进一步优化了"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和实施机制，及 时下达首批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金，各地于1月1日接续实施消费品以旧换 新，实现了政策平稳过渡和有序衔接。 关于在设备更新方面如何进一步提高资金使用效益、放大政策拉动效能，1月20日，国家发展改革委资 源节约和环境保护司司长王善成在国新办新闻发布会上介绍，一是降门槛。进一步降低申报项目的投资 门槛，加大对中小企业的支 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that Jinchuang Group (603680) expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 540 million to 620 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.77% to 105.25% [5] - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 560 million to 640 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 72.72% to 97.39% year-on-year [5] - The demand for rail transit vehicles is expected to rise due to large-scale tenders for the Fuxing high-speed trains, with the company benefiting from increased delivery volumes and improved product structure leading to higher overall gross margins [5][6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is projected to see growth in both domestic and international forklift sales, with total sales for 2025 expected to reach 1.4518 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [9] - Domestic forklift sales are expected to grow by 12.6% in 2025, driven by a recovery in demand linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors [10] - The report notes that the overall forklift market is showing stable growth, with expectations for this trend to continue into 2026 [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook for Jinchuang Group, projecting net profits of 551 million, 587 million, and 665 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.70, 0.75, and 0.85 yuan, and PE ratios of 23X, 21X, and 19X respectively, recommending a "buy" rating [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological barriers and a comprehensive product range for the company to strengthen its position in the rail transit vehicle supply market [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 93.6 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support equipment upgrades across various sectors, which is expected to drive total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [1] - The funding will support approximately 4,500 projects in industries such as industrial, energy, education, healthcare, and the renovation of old residential elevators [1] - The initiative includes direct funding to local governments for the scrapping and upgrading of old operational trucks, new energy city buses, and outdated agricultural machinery [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission has optimized the implementation of the "Two New" policy, focusing on project planning and application processes to ensure effective execution of equipment upgrade policies [1] - Future efforts will involve continued coordination and tracking of equipment upgrade projects and funding management to enhance the effectiveness of the "Two New" policy [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-23 一、 宏观数据速览 二、商品投资参考 综合 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % ...