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转债周度跟踪:转债价格中位数稳定在130元以上-20251206
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-06 15:23
2025 年 12 月 06 日 转债价格中位数稳定在 130 元以上 ——转债周度跟踪 20251205 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 ⚫ 本周权益及转债市场先弱后强,由于正股表现相对偏弱,高平价区估值逆势拉升支撑转债 价格,转债价格中位数稳定在 130 元以上。结合权益震荡期表现来看,转债抗跌意愿强, 良好的供需格局对估值仍有较强支撑,重点关注:一是近期偏债型转债估值震荡回落,面 临平价下行、基金赎回、久期缩短等多重压力;二是由于今年转债不强赎期限多以 3 个月 为主,不强赎转债将逐步重新进入强赎计数期,超预期强赎对高平价转债冲击较大。结合 市场预期及政策表态来看,权益预期仍偏向乐观,转债市场市场仍有整体会机会,结构上 剩余期限缩短背景下重点防范短久期转债时间价值衰减、转债超预期强赎等风险。 ⚫ 2. 转债估值 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@sws ...
转债凸性与定价系列报告之四:渐行渐近:转债到期和时间价值衰减压力分析
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-30 11:13
2025 年 11 月 30 日 渐行渐近:转债到期和时间价值衰 减压力分析 ——转债凸性与定价系列报告之四 ⚫ (1)剩余期限已缩短至 2.5 年附近,金融、消费转债"老龄化"严重 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 略 - ⚫ 随着时间自然流失,转债市场剩余期限天然存在缩短趋势,而新券发行是改善转债剩余期 限的核心手段,2024 年以来随着转债新发大幅放缓,转债剩余期限明显缩短。截止到 2025/11/21,转债加权剩余期限仅为 2.53 年左右,剩余期限在 2 年以内的转债余额占 比已逼近 40%。参照历史数据来看,如果转债发行短期不明显放量,每自 ...
转债周度跟踪:金融转债领跌,偏债区估值松动-20251129
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-29 11:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market digested the high valuations accumulated last week, with the underlying stocks rebounding moderately while the convertible bonds lagged in following the upward trend. The structure of the valuation has changed compared to the previous central level, with the valuation in the equity - biased area remaining relatively stable, but there are signs of loosening in the low - parity debt - biased area, especially in the 90 - 100 yuan parity range. The poor performance of bank and non - bank convertible bonds this week may be an important factor dragging down the debt - biased area valuation. Given the large fluctuations in the equity market and the unclear upward trend, and the insufficient protection at the high valuation level of the debt - biased area, attention can be focused on the structural opportunities of equity - biased convertible bonds [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The convertible bond market mainly digested high valuations this week. The underlying stocks rebounded moderately, but convertible bonds had a weak follow - up increase. The valuation structure changed, with the equity - biased area stable and the low - parity debt - biased area showing signs of valuation decline, especially in the 90 - 100 yuan parity range. The poor performance of financial convertible bonds may have dragged down the debt - biased area valuation. Amid large equity market fluctuations and an unclear upward trend, focus on the structural opportunities of equity - biased convertible bonds [2][6]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, with the rebound of underlying stocks and the digestion of high convertible bond valuations, the 100 - yuan premium rate dropped to the normal level (37.1%) before the sharp increase. As of the latest data, in the scenario of retaining outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market's convertible bonds was 37.1%, a single - week decline of 2.6%, and the latest quantile was at the 95.5% percentile since 2017. - The high - parity area mainly digested valuations this week, and attention should be paid to the downward shift of the valuation center in the low - parity debt - biased area. Due to the increase in the parity level and the resurgence of the call expectation, the conversion premium rate in the 130 - 140 yuan parity range declined the most and basically returned to the previous normal level. However, both the conversion premium rate and the bottom - up premium rate in the low - parity debt - biased area declined, with a relatively larger decline in the 90 - 100 yuan parity range. - The median price of convertible bonds and the yield to maturity were reported at 131.11 yuan and - 6.54% respectively, a change of - 0.28 yuan and - 0.13% from last week. Currently, the quantile levels are at the 97.60 and 1.30 percentiles since 2017 [5][7][12]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Zhongneng, Wei 24, and Zhongqi Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, and 1 convertible bond announced non - redemption, with a forced redemption rate of 75%. Currently, there are 19 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of the forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones is 7 billion yuan. There are currently 37 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 8 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 13 are expected to issue trigger redemption announcements [19][20]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Tianneng and Lanfan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions. As of the latest, 101 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 2 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 37 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 have issued board of directors' pre - plans for downward revision but have not yet gone to the shareholders' meeting [23]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Qiaqia Convertible Bond issued a conditional put option announcement. As of the latest, 5 convertible bonds are accumulating put option trigger days, among which 1 proposed a downward revision and 4 are in the non - downward - revision period [26]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There was no convertible bond issuance this week. Maolai and Ruike Convertible Bonds have been issued and are awaiting listing. As of the latest, there are 9 convertible bonds in the approval - for - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 7.4 billion yuan; and 6 convertible bonds in the listing - committee - approved progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 7.5 billion yuan [28].
固收定期报告:估值有支撑,关注“更高阶”低估
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-11-26 12:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the "fixed - income asset shortage" and "high equity market sentiment" that drove the convertible bond market in 2025 may continue. The convertible bond market is expected to have a return opportunity of over 10% next year [4]. - The supply - demand structure of the convertible bond market will continue to evolve in 2026, with the term structure becoming "dumbbell - shaped", the "aging" of convertible bonds slowing down slightly, the proportion of funds held in convertible bonds remaining high, and the influence of convertible bond ETFs becoming more prominent [4]. - In 2026, the valuation of convertible bonds is likely to remain high. The market risk appetite is not weak, the convertible bond positions of low - risk - preference investors are at a historical low, and the probability of extreme credit risk events in the short term is limited [4]. - In terms of strategy, attention should be paid to "higher - order" undervaluation. The contradiction between the high demand for undervalued convertible bonds from "fixed - income +" investors with a bond - biased approach and the "weak supply" of traditional low - priced convertible bonds needs to be resolved by constructing more complex undervaluation evaluation criteria [4]. - In the context of the "involution" of clause games, more attention should be paid to the odds. In the high - valuation environment, the valuation of convertible bonds is rapidly compressed before the call - back, and the game space for downward revisions has reached a historical low [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond "Ecological Niche" Advantage Remains Unchanged, with a Decent Return Space in 2026 - The two factors that drove the convertible bond market in 2025, "fixed - income asset shortage" and "high equity market sentiment", may continue in 2026. As of November 20, 2025, the median parity of the convertible bond market exceeded 100 yuan, and the overall equity nature of convertible bonds was at a historical high. The strong equity market is expected to be the most important support for convertible bonds in 2026 [8]. - The demand for convertible bonds from "fixed - income +" investors, especially bond - biased accounts with stock position limits, is expected to remain high due to the low long - term interest rate environment, which will support the valuation of convertible bonds [8]. - The convertible bond index is expected to have a return space of over 10% in 2026. Based on the delta calculation, if the Shanghai Composite Index reaches 4500 - 5000 points in 2026, the overall return of convertible bonds may be around 8% - 17%, and the actual return space may be higher [8]. 3.2 The "Aging" Speed May Slow Down Slightly, and the Dumbbell Structure Gradually Appears - The contraction speed of the convertible bond market in 2026 is expected to be slightly lower than that in 2025, and the stock size may reach 450 - 500 billion yuan. As of November 21, 2025, the stock size of the convertible bond market was about 550 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 180 billion yuan from the end of 2024. The net supply of convertible bonds in 2026 may be - 100 billion yuan [13]. - The "aging" of convertible bonds in 2026 may slow down slightly, and the median remaining term of convertible bonds at the end of next year may be about 2.2 years. The main reasons are the redemption of many short - term convertible bonds since 2025 and the recovery of convertible bond supply starting from mid - 2025 [15]. - In 2026, the number of medium - term convertible bonds will significantly decrease, and the term structure will evolve into a "dumbbell - shaped" structure. By the end of 2026, the number of 3 - 4 - year convertible bonds will decline from over 100 at the beginning of the year to about 30. The market may form a structure with medium - and large - sized convertible bonds within 3 years at one end and small - and medium - sized growth technology - related convertible bonds over 4 years at the other end [16]. - In terms of industries, the convertible bonds of non - bank finance, commercial retail, and consumer service industries will all mature by the end of 2026. The non - bank finance industry involves the largest scale and the most targets, with 4 convertible bonds worth 15 billion yuan maturing. The remaining industries' distributions may not change much, and the balance of convertible bonds in the banking, power equipment and new energy, and basic chemical industries significantly leads the others [18]. 3.3 The Proportion of Funds May Further Increase, Pay Attention to Convertible Bond ETFs - As of the end of October 2025, the proportion of convertible bonds held by funds is estimated to reach 47%, the highest level since the data was released. The increase in the proportion of convertible bonds held by public funds is mainly due to the decrease in the scale of convertible bonds held by insurance and annuity funds. By October 2025, the scale of convertible bonds held by insurance may be less than 50 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 30% from August 2025, and the scale of convertible bonds held by annuities may be close to 130 billion yuan, a record low [20]. - In 2026, the proportion of convertible bonds held by funds is expected to remain high and may even reach a new high. Retail investors have a long - term trend of reducing their holdings of convertible bonds. Insurance and annuity funds may participate in the convertible bond market through FOFs in 2026 due to the low net supply of large - scale and high - rating convertible bonds and the high overall valuation of convertible bonds [22]. - The scale of convertible bond ETFs may continue to expand, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of the high proportion of ETFs on the convertible bond market. As of the end of October 2025, the market value of convertible bonds held by convertible bond ETFs reached 67.84 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 10% of the convertible bond market. The high valuation of newly issued convertible bonds may be related to convertible bond ETFs [27]. 3.4 Valuation is Supported, and There is Room for More Optimism - In 2025, the valuation of convertible bonds increased significantly, and the implied volatility returned to the central level of 2023. As of November 20, 2025, the premium rate per 100 yuan of convertible bonds continued to break through historical highs, and the median implied volatility of convertible bonds exceeded 40% [30]. - In 2026, the valuation of convertible bonds is likely to remain high. The current market risk appetite is not weak, the convertible bond positions of low - risk - preference investors are at a historical low, and the probability of extreme credit risk events in the short term is limited [30]. - The high point of convertible bond valuation may be around 35% - 40%, and considering the possible decline in long - term interest rates and the increase in the bond floor of convertible bonds in 2026, the high point of valuation may be even higher [33]. 3.5 In the High - Valuation Environment, It is Recommended to Focus on "Higher - Order" Undervaluation - In 2025, convertible bond investors clearly preferred undervalued targets. As of November 21, 2025, the return of the low - price strategy was 21.1%, with an excess return of 4.6% compared to the CSI Convertible Bond Index. The relatively "abnormal" excess return may be mainly due to institutional behavior [37]. - In 2026, it may be more difficult for the pure low - price strategy to obtain excess returns. The market is facing the contradiction between the high demand for undervalued convertible bonds from "fixed - income +" investors with a bond - biased approach and the "weak supply" of traditional low - priced convertible bonds. It is recommended to focus on "higher - order" undervaluation [41]. - The convexity strategy may be a good entry point for "higher - order undervaluation". Since 2025, the series of convexity strategies have achieved excellent results, with a Calmar ratio of over 3 and a return of over 20% [42]. 3.6 The "Involution" of Clause Games, and More Attention Should Be Paid to the Odds - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the experience of convertible bond clause games was not good. In the high - level volatile environment of the equity market, listed companies became more cautious in considering convertible bond clauses. As of November 21, 2025, only 1 convertible bond proposed a downward revision in that month, and the ratio of downward - revision announcements to possible downward - revision announcements was 0.04:1, both the lowest levels since March 2023. The ratio of call - back announcements to non - call - back announcements in November was 1.57:1, the highest level in 2025 [45]. - In the high - valuation environment, the convertible bond call - back game has become "involution". The difference in the average conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a call - back progress of 80% - 100% and those with a progress of 0 - 20% has rapidly expanded since September 2025, and the conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a high call - back progress has fallen to a historical low [47]. - The game space for convertible bond downward revisions is narrowing. Under the dual influence of high valuation and institutional preference for undervalued convertible bonds, the average difference between the prices of all convertible bonds eligible for downward revision and the expected price after a full downward revision has narrowed to a relatively low level since 2021 [48]. - The report also lists the convertible bonds whose cooling - off periods for downward revisions and call - backs will end in 2026 [52][53][54].
可转债市场周观察:正股大幅下跌,转债明显惜售
Orient Securities· 2025-11-25 11:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, convertible bonds followed the decline of equities, but the decline was much smaller than that of the underlying stocks. Liquidity did not show significant panic, and the valuation continued to rise, with the premium rate of 100 - yuan bonds reaching 29%. The support for the convertible bond valuation comes from the scarcity premium due to supply less than demand and the support from the strong equity market environment. Before these two factors are completely broken, the convertible bond valuation remains firm [6]. - The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined. Currently, it is at a low level. High valuation and a decrease in high - quality individual bonds make trading more difficult. In December, due to reasons such as institutional assessments, the probability of position reduction is relatively high. In the case of an inevitable short - term correction in equities, convertible bonds are unlikely to have a continuous upward trend and may even have a supplementary decline. It is necessary to appropriately reduce the return expectations of convertible bonds, cash out in time or switch to defensive sectors. The trading opportunities of convertible bonds are greater than the trend opportunities. If a supplementary decline occurs, it may be one of the few layout opportunities at the end of the year [6]. - Affected by overseas stock markets this week, the A - share market had a systematic correction. Banks and food and beverage sectors were relatively resistant to the decline. Market sentiment was relatively pessimistic, and there was a strong demand to preserve returns at the end of the year. The disturbance from the US stock market further amplified the risk - aversion sentiment, and funds flowed to defensive sectors. Mid - cap blue - chip stocks may take over [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Significant Decline in Underlying Stocks, Obvious Reluctance to Sell Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds followed the decline of equities this week, but the decline was much smaller than that of the underlying stocks. The valuation continued to rise, and the premium rate of 100 - yuan bonds reached 29%. The support for the convertible bond valuation comes from the scarcity premium and the strong equity market environment. The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined, and it is necessary to reduce return expectations, cash out or switch to defensive sectors. Affected by overseas stock markets, the A - share market corrected, and mid - cap blue - chip stocks may take over [6][9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Followed the Decline of Equities, and Valuation Rose Significantly 2.1 Market Overall Performance: All Indexes Closed Lower, and Trading Volume Declined - Affected by overseas stock markets, all equity indexes closed lower this week. The CSI 2000 fell 6.78%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.78%, and other indexes also had different degrees of decline. All industries declined, with banks, media, and food and beverage having smaller declines, and power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, and commercial retail leading the decline. The average daily trading volume decreased by 181.322 billion yuan to 1.86 trillion yuan. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Luokai Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Guocheng Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [12]. 2.2 Slight Reduction in Trading Volume, Smaller Declines in High - Rating and Low - Price Convertible Bonds - This week, convertible bonds followed the significant decline of the underlying stocks, and the average daily trading volume decreased to 63.607 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.78%, the parity center decreased by 5.4% to 108.3 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 4.8% to 23.5%. In terms of style, high - price, small - cap, and low - rating convertible bonds performed poorly this week, while high - rating and low - price convertible bonds had smaller declines [14].
可转债周报(2025年11月17日至2025年11月21日):本周有所调整-20251123
EBSCN· 2025-11-23 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market declined. Since the beginning of 2025, both markets have been on an upward trend. Currently, the remaining term of outstanding convertible bonds has shortened, and the number of high - quality individual bonds has decreased. High - price and high - valuation convertible bonds may face certain adjustment pressures, and trading convertible bonds is quite difficult. It is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, select bonds in a refined manner, and pay attention to new bond opportunities in industries with high prosperity [4] Summary by Directory Market行情 - From November 17 to November 21, 2025 (5 trading days), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was - 1.78% (last week's change rate was + 0.52%), and the change of the CSI All - Share Index was - 5.05% (last week's change rate was - 0.53%). Since 2025, the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index has been + 16.50%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index has been + 17.36% [1] - By rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) all declined this week, with medium - rated bonds having the largest decline [1] - By convertible bond scale, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) all declined this week, with medium - scale convertible bonds having the largest decline [2] - By parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) had different performance this week, with ultra - high - parity bonds having the highest increase [2] Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of November 21, 2025, there were 411 outstanding convertible bonds (412 at the end of last week), with a balance of 563.719 billion yuan (566.85 billion yuan at the end of last week) [3] - The average convertible bond price was 131.61 yuan (133.30 yuan at the end of last week), and the percentile was 96.56% (from the beginning of 2023 to November 21, 2025) [3] - The average convertible bond parity was 101.20 yuan (105.52 yuan at the end of last week), and the percentile was 88.67% [3] - The average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 31.88% (27.12% at the end of last week), and the percentile was 38.31% [3] Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - Currently, the remaining term of outstanding convertible bonds has shortened, and the number of high - quality individual bonds has decreased. High - price and high - valuation convertible bonds may face certain adjustment pressures, and trading convertible bonds is quite difficult. It is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, select bonds in a refined manner, and pay attention to new bond opportunities in industries with high prosperity [4]
转债周度跟踪20251121:转债抗跌性突出,百元估值逼近40%-20251123
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-23 05:14
2025 年 11 月 23 日 转债抗跌性突出,百元估 40% 转债周度跟踪 20251121 1. 周观点及展望 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 表 1: 本周百元估值表现偏强,再度逼近前高 | 百元溢价率估值 | 最新値 | 単周变化 | 2017 以来分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 保留异常点 | | | 全样本 | 39.6% | 3.5% | 97.6% | | AA+(含)以上 | 30.8% | 2.4% | 100.0% | | AA(含)以下 | 40.7% | 3.6% | 96.3% | | | | 去除异常点 | | | 全样本 | 30.5% | 0.6% | 99.8% | | ...
转债周度跟踪:转债抗跌性突出,百元估值逼近-20251123
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-23 04:44
相关研究 2025 年 11 月 23 日 转债抗跌性突出,百元估值逼近 40% ——转债周度跟踪 20251121 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 周 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 在转债市场再度逼近 8 月底高点的背景下,本周再度发生明显回撤,8 月底至今转债指数 形成"双顶"格局,微盘股回撤较大。与 8 月底相比,本轮转债市场的抗跌性要明显强 于 8 月底,估值表现较强,百元溢价率估值逼近 40%、明显超过 8 月底高点,或与两方 面因素有关:一是本轮修复行情中高价转债价格和估值都明显偏弱,因此高价区通过估值 逆向支撑起到了较好的安全垫作用;二是从两只 ...
债市策略思考:权益长牛如何重塑转债格局?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-11-20 05:05
Core Insights - The demand side indicates that the long bull market in equities, combined with the stock-bond seesaw effect, may lead to continued outflow of funds from the bond market, while the demand for convertible bonds remains resilient [1] - On the supply side, the prevalence of strong redemptions in convertible bonds is likely to continue, but issuance is expected to improve starting in 2026, leading to a potential new-old transition in market structure [1] - From a long-term perspective, convertible bonds are expected to enter a slow bull market alongside equities, but their performance is likely to be weaker than stocks and stronger than pure bonds [1] Demand Side Analysis - The stock-bond seesaw effect suggests that funds may continue to flow out of the bond market, with solid returns from equity markets driving this trend [2] - The core advantage of fixed income plus funds lies in their diversified asset allocation, which balances the risk-return characteristics of stocks and bonds [2] - Despite a slight outflow of funds recently, the demand for convertible bonds remains robust, with the share and scale of secondary bond funds significantly expanding in Q3 2025 [8] Supply Side Analysis - The convertible bond market saw a rapid contraction post-2015 bull market, with the market balance dropping to just 13.3 billion yuan by the end of 2015, a decrease of over 120 billion yuan from the previous year [11] - As the equity bull market continues, some existing convertible bonds will likely have strong redemption windows, and the prevalence of strong redemptions is expected to persist [11] - Starting in 2026, the issuance of convertible bonds is projected to improve, with an estimated supply of around 50-60 billion yuan, slightly better than in 2025 [16] Valuation and Market Dynamics - The historical valuation trends of convertible bonds generally follow the movements of the equity market, with the premium rate primarily driven by balanced and equity-oriented convertible bonds [19] - In a bull market for equities, investors may prefer balanced and equity-oriented convertible bonds to capture higher returns [19] - The current market faces challenges due to limited capacity for fund absorption and high price valuations, which compress the yield space for convertible bonds [19][20]
如何理解央行利率比价
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-18 00:07
Overview - The report discusses the recent performance of various sectors in the market, highlighting the strong performance of the chemical, power equipment, and oil sectors, while the beauty care and automotive sectors lag behind [1][3]. Fixed Income - The report analyzes the central bank's interest rate pricing relationships, indicating that current rates are within a reasonable range. A decrease in deposit rates is expected to further widen the space for monetary policy easing, potentially lowering social financing costs [5][6]. Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is experiencing high valuation fluctuations, with a pricing deviation indicator of 7.80%, suggesting a low long-term allocation value for convertible bonds. Investors are advised to reduce exposure to equity-linked convertible bonds to mitigate risks [3][4]. Chemical Industry - The report highlights the AIDC power management solutions, emphasizing the need for new power supply architectures due to increased power demands from CPUs and GPUs. Solid-state transformers (SST) are identified as a potential solution, with several companies mentioned as key players in this space [7][8]. Power Equipment - Significant advancements in perovskite solar cells have been noted, with improvements in efficiency and stability. The report indicates that the industrialization process is accelerating, supported by government policies aimed at promoting advanced photovoltaic technologies [9][10]. Media Sector - The media sector is experiencing a downturn, with a 1.44% decline attributed to the tech sector's pullback. However, there is optimism regarding gaming and AI applications, with specific companies highlighted for their potential in these areas [11][12]. Bilibili Inc. - Bilibili reported a revenue of 7.7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a 5.2% year-on-year increase. The company has seen growth in its user base, with daily active users reaching 117 million, up 9% year-on-year. The advertising revenue growth has accelerated, driven by advancements in AI and user engagement [13][14][15].