转债估值

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可转债周报(2025年8月11日至2025年8月15日):权益市场方兴未艾,转债值得期待-20250816
EBSCN· 2025-08-16 07:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - From January to August 15, 2025, the convertible bond market outperformed the equity market, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 14.6% and the CSI All-Share Index rising 13.9%. Although the current convertible bond valuation quantiles are close to or exceed historical highs, the equity market is booming, and convertible bonds are still worth looking forward to [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.6% (2.3% last week), and the CSI All-Share Index rose 2.9% (1.9% last week). The convertible bond market continued to rise [1]. - By rating, high-rated bonds (AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (AA), and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) rose 1.7%, 2.0%, and 2.7% respectively this week, with low-rated bonds having the largest increase [1]. - By convertible bond size, large-scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 5 billion yuan), medium-scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small-scale convertible bonds (balance < 500 million yuan) rose 0.7%, 2.0%, and 3.1% respectively this week, with small-scale convertible bonds having the largest increase [1]. - By conversion parity, ultra-high parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high parity bonds (conversion value between 110 - 130 yuan), medium parity bonds (conversion value between 90 - 110 yuan), low parity bonds (conversion value between 70 - 90 yuan), and ultra-low parity bonds (conversion value < 70 yuan) rose 5.9%, 1.9%, 1.4%, 0.9%, and 0.7% respectively this week, with ultra-high parity bonds having the largest increase [2]. Current Convertible Bond Valuation Levels - As of August 15, 2025, there were 456 outstanding convertible bonds (461 at the end of last week), with a balance of 627.415 billion yuan (631.809 billion yuan at the end of last week) [3]. - The average convertible bond price was 131.58 yuan (130.35 yuan last week), with a quantile of 100%; the average convertible bond parity was 104.19 yuan (103.18 yuan last week), with a quantile of 94.8%; the average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 28.6% (28.1% last week), with a quantile of 57.4%. Among them, the conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 - 110 yuan) was 30.8% (29.6% last week), higher than the median conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds since 2018 (20.1%) [3]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - This week, the top 5 convertible bonds with the largest increases were Outong Convertible Bond (64.48%), Dayuan Convertible Bond (63.01%), Jintong Convertible Bond (39.50%), Weixin Convertible Bond (27.57%), and Youzu Convertible Bond (25.09%) [21].
转债周度专题:供需结构看转债估值-20250810
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-10 09:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the investment demand for convertible bonds from insurance and annuity remains. With the shrinking of traditional high - quality underlying bonds like banks, convertible bond funds may flow to low - price, high - grade medium - large - cap convertible bonds in sectors such as utilities, transportation, environmental protection, and construction. The valuation decline of medium - low - price and balanced convertible bonds is controllable, and the valuation of high - grade convertible bonds may rise. In the long - term, if the new issuance space of convertible bonds remains unopened, it may significantly affect the market positioning of convertible bond assets, especially if new medium - high - grade convertible bonds are continuously absent, which may impact the basic demand for convertible bond allocation of low - risk - preference investors such as annuities and disrupt the logic of "tight supply - demand supporting high convertible bond valuations" [22] - The current A - share market valuation is recovering. Large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. For convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental convertible bond funds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of clauses, attention should be paid to the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against the forced redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [42] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. Supply - Demand Structure and Convertible Bond Valuation - Since the fourth quarter of 2023, the new issuance of convertible bonds has significantly declined, while the amount of conversion and maturity has increased. The scale of outstanding convertible bonds has entered a downward channel, with AAA - rated convertible bonds being the main force of contraction. The scale of convertible bonds in industries such as banks, public utilities, environmental protection, and transportation has decreased significantly. As of August 8, 2025, the convertible bond scale has decreased by nearly 70 billion yuan this year [10] - Starting from 2025, the convertible bond market will enter a maturity peak. In 2025, 134 convertible bonds will mature, with an initial issuance scale of 279.3 billion yuan. As of July 31, 2025, 20 of these 134 convertible bonds remain, with a total remaining scale of 48.178 billion yuan. From 2026 to 2028, the theoretical maturity scale of convertible bonds will exceed 200 billion yuan each year. In terms of ratings, from 2025 to 2027, the maturity scale of AAA - rated convertible bonds will be 39.1 billion yuan, 31.3 billion yuan, and 81.8 billion yuan respectively, remaining the main force of future contraction. The maturity scale of AA - and above - rated convertible bonds will be 47.4 billion yuan, 83.5 billion yuan, and 153.3 billion yuan respectively during the same period [16] - On the demand side, compared with the end of 2021, the investor structure of convertible bonds has changed. The influence of public funds and insurance institutions has increased, while the proportion of enterprise annuities has decreased. Public funds are the main direct investors in convertible bonds, with relatively few restrictions on convertible bond ratings. Pension and insurance institutions usually have clear convertible bond rating restrictions and focus on the safety margin and return certainty of convertible bond prices [21] 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market showed an oscillating upward trend, with most of the three major indices rising, but there was differentiation and a slight correction in the second half of the week. The defense, machinery, and non - ferrous metal sectors performed well, while sectors such as commerce and retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, and social services declined [41] - For the stock market outlook, the current A - share market valuation is recovering. Large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. For convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental convertible bond funds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of clauses, attention should be paid to the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against the forced redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include hot topics, domestic demand - driven sectors, central state - owned enterprises represented by "China -字头", the "Belt and Road" theme, high - dividend sectors, and the military industry [42][43] 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. Equity Market Rises, with Military, Metal, and Machinery Leading - This week, the main equity market indices rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 1.94%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.49%. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value. Among the small - cap indices, the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.51% and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.65% [46] - Among the 27 Shenwan industries, 27 rose and 4 fell. The defense, non - ferrous metal, and machinery industries led the market with increases of 5.93%, 5.78%, and 5.37% respectively, while the pharmaceutical, computer, and commerce and retail industries were among the top decliners [49] 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Soars, and the Median of the 100 - Yuan Premium Rate Increases - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.31%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 2.25%, the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 2.42%, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.73%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 2.23% [51] - The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds increased this week. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 84.475 billion yuan, an increase of 7.259 billion yuan compared with last week. The total trading volume this week was 422.376 billion yuan [51] - At the industry level of convertible bonds, 29 industries rose and 0 fell. The machinery, defense, and beauty care industries led the market with increases of 4.51%, 4.40%, and 4.04% respectively. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 26 industries rose and 3 fell. The household appliance, bank, and machinery industries led the market with increases of 6.75%, 4.97%, and 4.70% respectively, while the building material, computer, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the decline [56] - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week (428 out of 459). Excluding the closing data of newly - listed convertible bonds this week, the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly increase were Jiaojian Convertible Bond (23.15%), Julong Convertible Bond (21.65%), Gaoce Convertible Bond (16.82%), Dongjie Convertible Bond (16.32%), and Borui Convertible Bond (14.97%); the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly decline were Qizheng Convertible Bond (- 22.67%), Haopeng Convertible Bond (- 11.77%), Saili Convertible Bond (- 10.79%), Yingji Convertible Bond (- 7.58%), and Tianlu Convertible Bond (- 6.95%); the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly trading volume were Dongjie Convertible Bond (19.443 billion yuan), Jinxian Convertible Bond (17.852 billion yuan), Tianlu Convertible Bond (16.819 billion yuan), Julong Convertible Bond (15.168 billion yuan), and Qizheng Convertible Bond (14.694 billion yuan) [58] - The number of absolute low - price convertible bonds decreased, and the median price of convertible bonds rose significantly. As of Friday, the median price of the entire market's convertible bonds closed at 130.41 yuan, an increase of 2.78 yuan compared with last weekend. The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate rose. The median implied volatility of the entire market increased, and the pure - bond premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds increased [62][66] 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds slightly declined, with the decline in equity - biased convertible bonds being higher. The valuation of convertible bonds with a conversion value of 110 - 120 yuan declined, while the valuations of other convertible bonds increased, especially those with a conversion value of 0 - 80 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan. The valuations of most convertible bonds of each rating increased, except for AAA and A and below. The valuations of small - cap and large - cap convertible bonds decreased, while those of medium - small - cap and medium - cap convertible bonds increased [75] - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have both rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds is above the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds is below the 50th percentile since 2017 [75] 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. AAA convertible bonds rose 1.88%, AA + convertible bonds rose 2.11%, AA convertible bonds rose 2.16%, AA - convertible bonds rose 2.69%, A + convertible bonds rose 3.17%, and A and below convertible bonds rose 2.37%. Since 2023, AAA convertible bonds have recorded a 20.01% return; AA + convertible bonds, 9.93%; AA convertible bonds, 14.85%; AA - convertible bonds, 22.79%; A + convertible bonds, 26.17%; and A and below convertible bonds, 30.78%. Historically, high - rating AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rating convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline properties and greater rebound strength [89] - This week, convertible bonds of all scales rose. Small - cap convertible bonds rose 3.48%, medium - small - cap convertible bonds rose 2.26%, medium - cap convertible bonds rose 2.65%, and large - cap convertible bonds rose 1.72%. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 27.20% return; medium - small - cap convertible bonds, 23.63%; medium - cap convertible bonds, 19.43%; and large - cap convertible bonds, 16.63% [89] 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Clauses 3.3.1. This Week's Primary - Market Issuance Plans - This week, there were no newly - listed convertible bonds, and there was 1 convertible bond issued but not yet listed - Weidao Convertible Bond with a scale of 1.17 billion yuan. The number of primary - market approvals this week was 7. Among them, 2 convertible bonds, Huafa Co., Ltd. (private placement convertible bonds, scale 4.8 billion yuan) and Jindawei (1.292 billion yuan), obtained the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission; 2 convertible bonds, Tianzhun Technology (0.872 billion yuan) and Chunfeng Power (2.5 billion yuan), were accepted by the stock exchange [94] - From the beginning of 2023 to August 8, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 89, with a total scale of 137.717 billion yuan. Among them, 15 convertible bonds passed the board of directors' proposal, with a total scale of 16.218 billion yuan; 36 convertible bonds passed the shareholders' meeting, with a total scale of 65.707 billion yuan; 28 convertible bonds were accepted by the stock exchange, with a total scale of 38.842 billion yuan; 4 convertible bonds passed the listing committee, with a total scale of 8.979 billion yuan; and 6 convertible bonds obtained the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with a total scale of 7.971 billion yuan [95] 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of August 9, 2025, 10 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision this week; 7 convertible bonds announced that they would not be downward - revised, among which Heda Convertible Bond, Shengtai Convertible Bond, and Yirui Convertible Bond announced that they would not be downward - revised within 6 months; Ou 22 Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision, and Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 announced the result of the downward revision, which was revised to the lowest price [98] - This week, 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption; 3 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed; and 6 convertible bonds, including Longhua Convertible Bond, Xince Convertible Bond, Haopeng Convertible Bond, Dongcai Convertible Bond, Youzu Convertible Bond, and Baidian Convertible Bond, announced early redemption [101] - As of the end of this week, there were 6 convertible bonds still in the put - option declaration period and 15 convertible bonds still in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [103]
转债周策略20250810:转债估值仍有上升空间
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-10 05:04
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the valuation of convertible bonds still has room for upward movement, driven by strong expectations in the stock market and a "scarcity of assets" in the bond market, leading to increased allocation of funds to convertible bonds for equity returns [1][9]. - An analysis of the differences in the funding landscape for convertible bonds between July 2025 and January 2025 shows that while the total scale of outstanding convertible bonds has decreased, the proportion held by major institutional investors has not significantly increased, indicating a shift of holdings towards financial institutions [2][10]. - The current structure of convertible bonds shows a higher proportion of equity-sensitive bonds compared to early 2022, with an average premium rate that suggests equity-sensitive bonds still have potential for valuation increases, making them relatively cost-effective [3][11]. Group 2 - The weekly strategy suggests that despite high valuations, as long as the stock market maintains an upward or high-level oscillation, the likelihood of a significant drop in convertible bond valuations remains low, with continued interest from funds in participating in equity markets through convertible bonds [4][23]. - Specific sectors and companies to focus on include those benefiting from rising overseas computing power demand and AI industrialization, as well as high-end manufacturing sectors like new energy and automotive parts, indicating potential investment opportunities in companies such as Huanxu, Lingyi, and Tian23 [4][24].
【固收】估值较高,但仍可以乐观——可转债周报(2025年8月4日至2025年8月8日)(张旭/李枢川)
光大证券研究· 2025-08-10 00:03
Market Overview - The China Convertible Bond Index increased by 2.3% during the week of August 4 to August 8, 2025, following a slight adjustment the previous week, while the China All Share Index rose by 1.9% [6] - Year-to-date, the China Convertible Bond Index has gained 12.8%, outperforming the China All Share Index, which has increased by 10.7% [6][9] - Current valuations of convertible bonds are near or exceed historical highs, yet the equity market remains vibrant, suggesting a positive outlook for convertible bonds [6][10] Performance by Rating and Size - High-rated bonds (AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (AA), and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) saw weekly changes of +2.14%, +2.26%, and +3.01% respectively, with low-rated bonds showing the highest increase [7] - In terms of bond size, large-scale bonds (over 5 billion) increased by +1.49%, medium-scale bonds (between 500 million and 5 billion) by +2.38%, and small-scale bonds (under 500 million) by +3.23%, with small-scale bonds again leading in growth [7] Price and Valuation Metrics - The average price of convertible bonds reached 130.4 yuan, up from 127.7 yuan the previous week, with a percentile rank of 99.5% [8] - The average conversion price was 103.18 yuan, an increase from 100.65 yuan, with a percentile rank of 93.5% [8] - The average conversion premium stood at 28.1%, up from 27.4% the previous week, with a percentile rank of 56.7% [8] Sector Performance - The top 30 performing convertible bonds were primarily from the machinery equipment (7 bonds) and chemical (6 bonds) sectors, while the worst performers were mainly from the pharmaceutical and biological (7 bonds) and chemical (4 bonds) sectors [7]
可转债周报(2025年8月4日至2025年8月8日):估值较高,但仍可以乐观-20250809
EBSCN· 2025-08-09 07:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current convertible bond valuations are close to or exceed historical highs, but the equity market is on the rise, so one can still be optimistic about convertible bonds [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - From August 4 to August 8, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +2.3% (last week's change was -1.4%), and the CSI All-Share Index changed by +1.9% (last week's change was -1.1%). Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +12.8%, and the CSI All-Share Index has risen by +10.7%, with the convertible bond market outperforming the equity market [1][4] - By rating, high-rated bonds (AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (AA), and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) rose by +2.14%, +2.26%, and +3.01% respectively this week, with low-rated bonds having the highest increase. By convertible bond size, large-scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 5 billion yuan), medium-scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small-scale convertible bonds (balance < 500 million yuan) rose by +1.49%, +2.38%, and +3.23% respectively, with small-scale convertible bonds having the highest increase. By parity, ultra-high parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 130 yuan), medium parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan), low parity bonds (conversion value between 70 and 90 yuan), and ultra-low parity bonds (conversion value < 70 yuan) rose by +4.08%, +2.85%, +2.30%, +1.96%, and +1.86% respectively, with ultra-high parity bonds having the highest increase [2] - The top 30 convertible bonds in terms of increase are mainly from the machinery and equipment (7) and chemical (6) industries; the top 30 convertible bonds in terms of decline are mainly from the pharmaceutical and biological (7) and chemical (4) industries [2] Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of August 8, 2025, there were 461 outstanding convertible bonds (463 at the end of last week), with a balance of 631.809 billion yuan (636.614 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 130.4 yuan (127.7 yuan last week), with a percentile of 99.5%; the average convertible bond parity was 103.18 yuan (100.65 yuan last week), with a percentile of 93.5%; the average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 28.1% (27.4% last week), with a percentile of 56.7%. Among them, the conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) was 29.6% (27.6% last week), higher than the median conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds since 2018 (20.1%) [3] Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +2.3% this week, continuing to rise after a slight adjustment last week; the CSI All-Share Index changed by +1.9%. Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +12.8%, and the CSI All-Share Index has risen by +10.7%, with the convertible bond market outperforming the equity market. Although the current convertible bond valuations are high, one can still be optimistic about convertible bonds due to the promising equity market [4] Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase this week include Jiejian Convertible Bond, Julong Convertible Bond, and Gaoce Convertible Bond, with increases of 23.15%, 21.65%, and 16.82% respectively [22]
可转债市场周观察:转债合理回调,看多逻辑不变
Orient Securities· 2025-08-04 15:19
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market has a reasonable correction, and the bullish logic remains unchanged. Although there are concerns about high valuations and profit - taking emotions, there is no need for excessive worry. The convertible bond still has upward potential, and it can be appropriately bought at lower prices if the price continues to decline [5][8]. - The equity market is expected to be relatively certain before September. The valuation and pricing of convertible bonds are supported by the increasing demand for fixed - income plus products and the relatively low convertible bond positions. The upward channel of the market is clear, driven by the improvement of grass - roots governance capabilities and technological competitiveness [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Viewpoint: Convertible Bonds Have a Reasonable Correction, and the Bullish Logic Remains Unchanged - The convertible bond market has risen continuously in the past few weeks under the drive of the underlying stocks, and the valuation has continued to soar. The short - term fluctuations in the equity market have become an outlet for the market sentiment. However, there is no need to be overly concerned [5][8]. - The equity market reached 3636 points this week and then showed some fear of high prices, closing at 3560 points. The market heat has not decreased, and trading volume and margin trading remain high. Domestic meetings and Sino - US tariff negotiations have no unexpected content. The market is still bullish in the future [5][8]. - After 5 consecutive weeks of rising, the market reached a high and then declined this week. The convertible bonds fell significantly, with the average daily trading volume slightly decreasing to 77.217 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 1.37%, the parity center dropped 1.1% to 105.8 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center dropped 0.3% to 21.8% [5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Significantly Corrected with the Underlying Stocks 3.2.1 Overall Market Performance: The Stock Market Reached a High and Then Declined, and the Convertible Bond Valuation Significantly Decreased - From July 28th to August 1st, after 5 consecutive weeks of upward movement, the equity market corrected. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.58%, the CSI 300 fell 1.75%, the CSI 1000 fell 0.54%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.74%, the STAR 50 fell 1.65%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 2.70%. In terms of industries, medicine, biology, communication, and media led the gains, while coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate led the losses. The average daily trading volume decreased slightly by 332.89 billion to 1.81 trillion yuan [13]. - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Qizheng, Dongjie, Tianlu, Jing 23, Haibo, Weixin, Titan, Huicheng, Taifu, and Songlin Convertible Bonds. In terms of trading volume, Tianlu, Saili, Dayu, Qizheng, Jing 23, Borui, Dongjie, Yingji, Sheyan, and Huicheng Convertible Bonds were relatively active [13]. 3.2.2 Slight Reduction in Trading Volume, Smaller Declines in High - priced, Medium - and Low - Rated Convertible Bonds - After 5 consecutive weeks of rising, the market reached a high and then declined this week. Convertible bonds fell significantly, and the average daily trading volume slightly decreased to 77.217 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 1.37%, the parity center dropped 1.1% to 105.8 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center dropped 0.3% to 21.8%. In terms of style, high - priced, medium - and low - rated convertible bonds had smaller declines this week, while medium - and high - rated, large - cap, and low - priced convertible bonds had larger declines [5][15].
可转债市场周观察:估值持续新高,转债继续看多
Orient Securities· 2025-07-29 07:14
Group 1 - The convertible bond market continues to see rising valuations, with prices reaching new highs, supported by strong demand in the fixed income market and low positions in convertible bonds [5][8][19] - The absolute price median of convertible bonds has reached 128 yuan, indicating a significant increase in valuation levels [8][19] - The market sentiment is bolstered by various events, including the commencement of construction on the Yashan Hydropower Station and the AI conference, which have strengthened bullish expectations [8][11] Group 2 - From July 21 to July 25, the equity market experienced a continuous upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.67% [11] - The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 1.84 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [11] - The trading volume of convertible bonds reached 80.674 billion yuan, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 2.14% [19][29] Group 3 - The report suggests that the systemic risk for convertible bonds remains low, with a strong expectation for performance until September [5][8] - The report recommends focusing on low-priced and equity-oriented individual bonds, as the difficulty in selecting bonds increases under the current price structure [5][19] - The report highlights that high-priced and mid-high rated convertible bonds performed well, while AAA-rated and large-cap bonds showed relative weakness [19]
转债周度跟踪:寻找理性的支撑-20250726
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-26 13:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high price and high valuation of convertible bonds have certain logical support from aspects such as bond floor and institutional behavior [3][7]. - The thick bond floor of convertible bonds currently may lead to an upward breakthrough in the average price as the stock market rises, and the existence of call - risk may cause the valuation and price of non - called convertible bonds to become more expensive [3][7]. - The option value of debt - like convertible bonds has increased, and their high - price and high - valuation state may be maintained, with the YTM possibly dropping to a very low level [3][7]. - As the equity market continues to strengthen and funds flow into equity - related assets, convertible bonds have become a tool for fixed - income plus funds to capture the beta of the equity market. If secondary bond funds replace primary bond funds as the marginal incremental form of fixed - income plus funds flowing into the market, the capital inflow into the convertible bond market may continue to increase [3][7]. - The average remaining term of the convertible bond market is gradually shortening, indicating an increase in both call and downward - revision probabilities. The high price of short - term debt - like convertible bonds currently contains a strong downward - revision expectation [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The high price and high valuation of convertible bonds are supported by four clues, including the thick bond floor, the increase in the option value of debt - like convertible bonds, the strengthening of the equity market and the inflow of funds, and the shortening of the average remaining term of the convertible bond market [3][7]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the sentiment of convertible bonds and underlying stocks remained positive, with both rising significantly. The 100 - yuan valuation continued to rise unilaterally, and convertible bonds had a strong ability to follow the rise of underlying stocks [6][8]. - The overall market convertible bond 100 - yuan premium rate was 33%, rising by 1.14% in a single week, and the latest quantile level was at the 89.90% percentile since 2017. There was an obvious differentiation in the valuation of high - and low - rated convertible bonds, with the valuation of low - rated convertible bonds rising more [6][8]. - This week, convertible bonds continued to rise significantly following the underlying stocks, and the yield to maturity reached a new low since 2017, reporting - 5.09%. As of the latest, the conversion premium rate index, pure - bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 41.94%, 37.06%, and - 5.09% respectively, changing by - 1.31%, + 3.02%, and - 0.70% compared with last week, and their current quantile levels were at the 61.90, 62.70, and 0.00 percentiles since 2017 [6][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, convertible bonds such as Yingji, Chujiang, and Liancheng issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 22 convertible bonds that have issued call or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of call and maturity convertible bonds among those not delisted is 5 billion yuan [6][14]. - There are currently 52 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 14 of which are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Also, 4 convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [14][17][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 and Jinneng convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, and Jingao convertible bond announced a downward revision to the bottom. As of the latest, 145 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 24 are restricted by net assets and cannot be downward - revised, 1 has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price without an announcement, 37 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not yet held a general meeting of shareholders [6][20][21]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Guowei and Changqi convertible bonds issued put - option announcements. As of the latest, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements, and 4 are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 3 are in the non - downward - revision interval and 1 is accumulating downward - revision days [23]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There were no convertible bond issuance announcements this week. According to the latest announcement, Bo 25 convertible bond is to be listed next week (July 28, 2025). As of the latest, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approval - registration progress with an expected issuance scale of 6.9 billion yuan, and 3 in the listing - committee approval progress with an expected issuance scale of 4 billion yuan [25].
转债周度跟踪:继YTM后,转债百元估值同样强势破位-20250719
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-19 12:53
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the beginning of the week, the convertible bond market experienced a significant pullback, but sentiment quickly recovered. The convertible bond index reached a new high, and the YTM hit a new low. Small - cap sectors such as technology and innovative drugs led the gains, while bank and photovoltaic convertible bonds were volatile, with bank convertible bonds that had performed well retreating. After a phased adjustment, there may be repair opportunities for bank convertible bonds. The convertible bond market is generally expensive, and after the YTM, the 100 - yuan valuation also broke through strongly this week. There may be short - term upward momentum, but potential adjustment risks need to be guarded against [1][4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, both equities and convertible bonds continued to rise slightly. Convertible bonds had a strong ability to follow the rise of underlying stocks, and the 100 - yuan valuation increased. The market - wide convertible bond 100 - yuan premium rate was 31%, up 0.33% from the previous week, and the latest quantile was at the 86.10% percentile since 2017. There was a slight differentiation in the valuations of high - and low - rated convertible bonds, with low - rated ones being slightly stronger [3][5]. - This week, convertible bonds continued to rise slightly following the underlying stocks. The yield to maturity was approaching a historical low, at - 4.39%. As of the latest data, the conversion premium rate index, pure bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 43.25%, 34.04%, and - 4.39% respectively, with changes of - 0.73%, + 1.66%, and - 0.39% from the previous week. Their current quantile levels were at the 63.50, 55.10, and 0.80 percentiles since 2017 [3][10]. 3.2 Clause Tracking 3.2.1 Redemption - This week, Guangda, Beilu, Feilu, Yong'an, Liande convertible bonds, etc. issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 21 convertible bonds that have issued early redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of these bonds is 5.3 billion yuan. There are 43 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 9 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Three convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [3][15][17]. 3.2.2 Downgrade - This week, Lingkang convertible bond proposed a downgrade, and Shanshi convertible bond announced a downgrade, approaching the maximum downgrade. As of the latest, 152 convertible bonds are in the non - downgrade period, 25 cannot be downgraded due to net asset constraints, 2 have triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downgrade trigger price without an announcement, 36 are accumulating downgrade days, and 2 have issued board - proposed downgrade plans but have not yet gone to the general meeting of shareholders [3][21]. 3.2.3 Put - back - This week, Longda convertible bond issued a put - back announcement. As of the latest, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - back announcements, and 7 are accumulating put - back trigger days, including 5 in the non - downgrade period and 2 accumulating downgrade days [3][24]. 3.3 Primary Issuance - There were no announcements of convertible bond issuances this week. Next week, Libo convertible bond is scheduled to be listed on July 22, 2025. As of the latest, there are 5 convertible bonds in the approved - registration progress, with a total issuance scale of 5.9 billion yuan, and 2 in the listing - committee - approved progress, with a total issuance scale of 1.5 billion yuan [3][26].
转债周度跟踪:7月以来转债执行强赎比例偏高-20250712
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-12 15:07
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current risks in the convertible bond market include high valuations of low - volatility bond - type convertible bonds and high average market prices, which may lead to a stampede under external risks. If the Shanghai Composite Index fails to break through 3500 points for a long time, it may reverse market sentiment and the convertible bond market may follow suit [5]. - For absolute - return accounts, especially low - volatility bond - type strategy accounts, it is advisable to shift to a defensive position. For relative - return accounts, considering the risk of missing out on potential gains in a liquid market, balanced and equity - biased convertible bonds with previously compressed valuations may offer better value [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Outlook - The convertible bond market faces risks such as high valuations of low - volatility bond - type convertible bonds and high average market prices. The high price level may cause a stampede under external risks. If the Shanghai Composite Index fails to break through 3500 points for a long time, the convertible bond market may reverse [5]. - Absolute - return accounts can shift to defense, while relative - return accounts can consider balanced and equity - biased convertible bonds with previously compressed valuations [5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets continued to rise, but the growth rate narrowed. The underlying stocks outperformed convertible bonds, and convertible bond valuations increased slightly. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market was 31%, up 0.48% week - on - week, and the latest percentile was at 84.90% since 2017. There was a slight divergence in valuations between high - and low - rated convertible bonds, with low - rated ones being slightly stronger [6]. - Convertible bonds followed the rise of underlying stocks, and the yield to maturity reached a new low this year at - 4.00%. As of the latest data, the conversion premium rate index, pure bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 43.98%, 32.38%, and - 4.00% respectively, changing by - 1.30%, + 1.58%, and - 0.30% week - on - week, and their percentile levels since 2017 were 65.00, 51.50, and 2.90 respectively [9][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking - **Redemption**: This week, Weilong, Quanfeng, Zhite, and Henghui convertible bonds issued early redemption announcements. There are currently 17 convertible bonds that have issued early redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 6.6 billion yuan. There are 42 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 10 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Three convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [12][17][19]. - **Downward Revision**: No convertible bonds proposed downward revisions this week. Jiali and Lanfan convertible bonds announced downward revisions, with Jiali's reaching the bottom and Lanfan's not. As of now, 162 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 26 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but has not announced, 40 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not held a general meeting [20]. - **Put Option**: Lixun convertible bond issued a put option announcement this week. As of now, 6 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, 4 of which are in the non - downward - revision period and 2 are accumulating downward - revision days [23]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Guanghe convertible bond issued an issuance announcement. Next week, Yongxi convertible bond is scheduled to be listed on July 14, 2025. As of now, there are 4 convertible bonds awaiting registration approval with a planned issuance scale of 4.8 billion yuan, and 3 convertible bonds that have passed the listing committee review with a planned issuance scale of 2.6 billion yuan [25].