Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but the immediate reaction in gold prices was a sharp rise followed by a significant drop, indicating a short-term market manipulation rather than a fundamental change in the market dynamics [1] Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a decline after the initial spike, reaching a low of 3634 before rebounding, suggesting potential upward momentum in the evening session [1] - The recommendation is to buy at 3668 and add more at 3658, with a short-term bullish outlook, focusing on resistance levels at 3680 and 3690 [1] Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is showing signs of weakening bearish momentum, with fundamental changes indicating a likely rebound in inflation [1] - The price of oil may not reach 60 USD, and a prolonged time frame could lead to a bottoming trend, suggesting a shift in strategy from bearish to bullish, with a focus on defending positions above the low of 61.30 [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - The decision reflects a contradiction in the economic landscape, with a significant drop in job growth and rising unemployment claims, while inflation remains slightly above the 2% target [1] - The Fed's future plans indicate an expectation of an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year and further cuts of 25 basis points annually over the next two years, potentially lowering rates to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut announcement, global financial markets experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones initially rising by 1.1% but ultimately closing up only 0.57%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended lower [3] - The dollar index fell to a yearly low before rebounding, and gold prices initially surged to a record high of $3744 per ounce before dropping over $60 [3] - Industrial commodities faced declines, with LME copper and WTI crude oil seeing drops exceeding 1%, although gold is expected to perform well in the long term during rate cut cycles [3] Group 3 - The rate cut is expected to lower borrowing costs for businesses, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises, which may encourage investment and stabilize employment [5] - For consumers, mortgage rates may decrease, boosting the real estate market, while lower savings yields could drive increased spending or investment [5] - The Fed's balancing act between preventing recession and managing inflation presents significant challenges, as highlighted by Chairman Powell's comments on the complex situation [5] Group 4 - The narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and China may lead to a decrease in the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets, potentially increasing capital inflows into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] - The Chinese yuan may appreciate slightly against the dollar, reducing costs for overseas education and shopping, while companies with dollar-denominated debt may face less repayment pressure [8] - The Fed's rate cut provides room for China's monetary policy to adjust, potentially leading to measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or lower LPR to enhance liquidity and support real estate and consumption [8] Group 5 - The rate cut signals a shift in the global economic landscape towards risk management, with the Fed acting preemptively to avoid a slowdown, indicating a need for lower profit expectations [10] - The pressure from the presidency and internal disagreements within the Fed raise questions about its independence in decision-making [10] - Investment strategies may need to adapt, focusing on technology stocks in the U.S. and sectors in China that benefit from global easing and domestic support [10]

Group 1 - International oil prices increased on September 16, with WTI crude oil futures rising by $1.22 to $64.52 per barrel, a gain of 1.93%, and Brent crude oil futures up by $1.03 to $68.47 per barrel, a rise of 1.53% [1] - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF saw an increase of over 2% due to the market movements [1] - Analysts suggest that the current rebound in oil prices is a corrective movement following the decline in August, which was influenced by pessimistic overseas economic expectations [2] Group 2 - The core issue in the oil market remains the balance between OPEC+ production increases and the expectations of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, alongside the potential inflation rebound due to long-term global fiscal policy expansion [2] - Recent geopolitical conflicts and expectations of interest rate cuts are seen as short-term positive factors for oil prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm employment increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][11][17]. Economic Data - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose slightly to 48.7 in August from 48 in July, but remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction [10]. - The Eurozone's CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year in August, while core CPI slightly decreased to 2.3%, aligning with market expectations [10]. - U.S. job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, a ten-month low, and the trade deficit surged by 32.5% to $78.3 billion in July [10]. - The ADP employment report showed an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, below the expected 65,000 [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that the Fed should begin cutting rates this month and continue to do so in the coming months, depending on future economic data [3][6][17]. - Market expectations for a 50 basis point cut in September have intensified following the weak employment data, although there are concerns about the potential for a "recession trade" if economic slowdown expectations become too pronounced [4][18]. Market Reactions - U.S. equities, silver, and copper experienced volatility, reflecting uncertainty between easing expectations and economic slowdown narratives [5][19]. - Gold prices rose, and the U.S. dollar weakened, indicating clearer expectations regarding monetary policy direction [5][19]. International Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that the 2% inflation target has been achieved, and necessary measures will continue to ensure price stability [6]. - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor indicated that further rate hikes may be appropriate given the improving economic and price conditions [7]. Trade and Policy Developments - The U.S. and Japan are finalizing a trade agreement that includes measures to alleviate tariff burdens, with Japan committing to increase U.S. rice imports by 75% [15][16]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have risen due to President Trump's attempts to influence its leadership [6][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stocks falling, bond yields mostly declining, and the US Treasury yield dropping to 4.07%. The US dollar index oscillated and closed flat at 97.7, non - US currencies showed mixed performance, gold prices rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15.1, the spot commodity index fell, and Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel [1][9] - The market is concerned about Trump's influence on the Fed's personnel changes, and concerns about the Fed's independence have increased but not significantly fermented. There are significant differences among Fed officials' views before the September interest - rate meeting, with some dovish and some hawkish. The market has fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in September, and the expectation of a 50bp rate cut has increased, but a significant rate cut is still a low - probability scenario due to inflation rebound pressure [2][11] - The August non - farm payrolls report showed that the US employment market continued to cool down, with new non - farm jobs falling short of expectations, the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and wage growth slowing down. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and the weakening labor market may lead to a weaker US dollar [2][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stocks fell, bond yields mostly declined, the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.07%. The US dollar index oscillated and closed flat at 97.7, non - US currencies had mixed performance, gold prices rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15.1, the spot commodity index fell, and Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly fell. The S&P 500 index rose 0.33%, euro - zone stock markets mostly fell, emerging - market stock markets mostly rose, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.36%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7% [10][11] - The market is concerned about Trump's influence on the Fed's personnel changes, and concerns about the Fed's independence have increased. Fed officials have different views before the September interest - rate meeting, and the August non - farm payrolls report is a key factor [11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.07%, euro - zone government bond yields mostly declined, and emerging - market bond yields mostly declined [18] - The August non - farm payrolls report strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, pushing down the US Treasury yield. However, the manufacturing and service PMI showed increased price - rising pressure, and the upcoming August CPI in the US is expected to rebound, limiting the downward space of the long - end US Treasury yield [19] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly dropped to 1.776%, and the Sino - US interest - rate spread inverted to 229bp. The domestic bond market remained weak [22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index oscillated and closed at 97.7, non - US currencies had mixed performance. The offshore RMB fell 0.05%, the euro rose 0.28%, the pound rose 0.04%, the yen fell 0.26%, and some currencies depreciated while others appreciated [27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, reaching a new high. Trump's intervention in the Fed increased concerns about its independence, which was positive for gold. The expectation of a rate cut increased, but significant rate cuts were less likely due to inflation [30] - Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel. The decline in crude oil inventory was less than expected, supply increased, and weak supply - demand relationship pressured oil prices. The domestic industrial product anti - involution trading was volatile, and the commodity spot index fell [30] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The August non - farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and new non - farm jobs only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000. The labor market continued to weaken, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September [33] - The non - farm data made the weakening trend of the US dollar index more obvious, and the market is more inclined to a soft landing of the US economy, with continued bearish sentiment on the US dollar index [34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: China's August imports and exports, US August New York Fed inflation expectations - Tuesday: US August NFIB small business confidence index, US 2025 non - farm employment benchmark change preliminary value - Wednesday: China's August CPI, US August PPI - Thursday: US August CPI, ECB September interest - rate meeting resolution - Friday: US September University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations [35]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic acknowledges the need for a slight easing of policy due to signs of a slowing labor market, despite inflation control remaining a priority [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari highlights the gap between the current federal funds rate target range and the neutral rate, suggesting room for gradual rate reductions to align with long-term economic growth [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing low inflation and a strong job market, with current inflation levels exceeding the 2% target [3] - The latest Beige Book indicates that while some businesses have passed on cost increases to customers, many are hesitant to raise prices due to customer sensitivity and concerns about losing business [3]

Core Viewpoint - September appears to be the last opportunity for the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates in the Eurozone, as the key rate was maintained at 2.00% during the last meeting in July, and investors largely expect no rate cuts next month [1] Group 1 - If August's consumer price inflation is lower than expected, the situation regarding interest rates may change [1] - Eurozone CPI data is set to be released next week, which could influence the ECB's decision [1] - Rising energy and commodity prices may lead to further inflation spikes, potentially closing the window for additional easing starting in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, has signaled a high probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September, with market expectations reaching 91.1% for this move, potentially followed by another cut by year-end [1] Economic Indicators - Current economic conditions are stable, but there are concerns regarding a slight softening in the employment sector, which could pose risks [1] - Inflation expectations remain anchored at the 2% target, despite previous price increases due to tariffs, which Powell described as a "one-time shock" [1] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets reacted positively, with the Dow Jones reaching a historic high above 46,000 points and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.88%. Related financial indices in the A-share market rose by 2.7% [1] - The anticipated interest rate cut is expected to lead to a higher opening for A-shares, driven by a weaker dollar and increased foreign investment [1] Investment Considerations - While the interest rate cut is seen as a positive signal, there are underlying concerns about potential economic weakness and the risk of a recession, which could negatively impact both U.S. and A-share markets [1] - The possibility of a rebound in inflation could lead to tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, disrupting market momentum [1] - A prior increase in A-share prices may indicate that some investors have already positioned themselves, raising the risk of a sell-off if the market opens too high [1] Strategic Focus - Future investment strategies should closely monitor U.S. economic data, particularly employment and inflation metrics, as well as the opening trends and trading volumes in the A-share market [1]

Core Insights - The UK CPI data for July shows a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, exceeding market expectations and the previous value of 3.6% [1] - Core CPI also rose by 3.8%, surpassing both the forecast and prior value of 3.7% [1] - Following the data release, the British pound strengthened against the euro and experienced fluctuations against the US dollar [1] Economic Context - Prior to the data release, many market institutions anticipated a rebound in the UK CPI, and the actual results exceeded these expectations [1] - The Bank of England had previously predicted inflation would rise further, reaching a peak of 4% in September before gradually declining to the target rate of 2% [1] - Recent economic data indicates a 1.2% year-on-year GDP growth and a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth for the second quarter, both above market expectations [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Market institutions are now forecasting that the Bank of England may pause interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting to assess whether inflation is exerting sustained upward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in the Federal Reserve's stance from hawkish to dovish, indicating a potential resumption of interest rate cuts due to weakening economic data and external pressures, with expectations for a possible rate cut as early as September 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts after a series of reductions in late 2024, with the federal funds rate remaining in the 4.25%-4.5% range, reflecting a dilemma between preventing economic recession and controlling inflation [3][4]. - Recent changes in the economic environment have led to increased signals of a dovish shift within the Federal Reserve, with market predictions suggesting a potential rate cut in September [3][4]. Economic Indicators and Influences - Economic data shows signs of weakening, with the manufacturing PMI dropping from 52.9 in June to 49.8 in July, and non-farm payrolls in July only adding 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations [7][8]. - Tariff impacts on inflation have been relatively mild, with 64% of tariff costs absorbed by U.S. companies, leading to a manageable inflation environment, as indicated by the PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in June [9]. Political and Internal Pressures - Former President Trump has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates, arguing that lower rates would benefit the economy and his political standing ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [10]. - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve have shifted, with an increase in dovish voices among its members, influenced by both external political pressures and changing economic conditions [10][11]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The upcoming rate cuts are expected to be preventive rather than reactive, with a high probability (91.5%) of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [12][19]. - The anticipated rate cuts may occur 2-3 times within the year, totaling 50-75 basis points, as the Federal Reserve aims to maintain flexibility in response to evolving economic conditions [20]. Global and Chinese Market Implications - The resumption of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to have a positive impact on global and Chinese financial markets, with expectations of a weaker dollar and potential capital inflows into emerging markets [21][22]. - China's monetary policy may gain new room for easing, with potential for further rate cuts and a favorable environment for the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar [25][26].