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【黄金期货收评】美通胀韧性强弱成新焦点 沪金日内下跌0.08%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-18 08:07
Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 777.02 yuan per gram on July 18, with a slight decrease of 0.08% and a trading volume of 221,277 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 771.7 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 5.32 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6%, significantly above the expected 0.1%, while initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 were reported at 221,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.6% [2] - In September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates steady is 46.9%, with a cumulative probability of 51.7% for a 25 basis point cut [2] Group 3 - According to Galaxy Futures, the strong U.S. retail data and resilient jobless claims have led to a rise in the dollar, putting slight pressure on precious metals [3] - The market is expected to maintain high volatility in precious metals due to uncertainties surrounding inflation rebound and potential delays in Fed rate cuts [3]
银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 14:39
Group 1: Market Review - London gold is currently trading around $3360, and London silver around $38.25. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.25% to 780.4 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.52% to 9225 yuan/kg [3] - The US dollar index opened higher and then weakened, currently trading around 97.97 [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated slightly, currently around 4.415% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar oscillated at a high level, currently around 7.173 [6] Group 2: Important Information - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariff on $72 billion of US goods [7] - Fed's Harker said there is no urgent need to cut interest rates, and Powell asked the Fed inspector general to review the renovation cost of the Fed building [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60.0% [7] Group 3: Logical Analysis - As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, the tariff game has tightened. Due to tariff uncertainty, the Fed is taking a wait - and - see approach. The market is waiting for the US CPI data tonight. Silver is in short supply due to tax - increase expectations, and precious metals are expected to continue a strong trend [8][10] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [11] - For arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13] Group 5: Data Reference - There are multiple data charts including actual yield and precious metal trends, US dollar index and precious metal trends, internal and external futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures positions, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [14][16][21]
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 14:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].
美元资产修复之后
Tebon Securities· 2025-06-30 11:30
Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]
英国央行行长:薪资增长距离正常化还有一段距离
news flash· 2025-06-26 11:40
Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, indicates that wage growth in the UK is still far from normalization, with companies responding to higher employment taxes by laying off workers and cutting wages rather than raising prices [1] Group 1: Employment and Wage Trends - Increasing evidence suggests that UK businesses are addressing higher employment taxes through layoffs and wage reductions instead of price increases [1] - Bailey welcomes signs of a loosening labor market and a slowdown in wage growth, indicating a potential shift in employment dynamics [1] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The rise in employment taxes implemented by the government in early April raises concerns among Bank of England policymakers about potential inflation rebound and long-term inflation risks [1] - Despite the new tax, Bailey notes that it does not seem to have driven up prices, with more adjustments being made through wages and employment [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The key interest rates need to remain tight to ensure the ongoing trend of wage and employment adjustments continues [1]
分析人士:建议对贵金属保持长线交易思路
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-06-11 00:58
Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility due to trade negotiations, geopolitical situations, and macroeconomic policies, with gold and silver prices showing divergent trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are facing resistance at previous highs, while silver prices have reached a 13-year high, driven by industrial demand and geopolitical factors [1]. - The recent U.S. economic indicators, including a contraction in manufacturing and services PMI, alongside slowing non-farm employment data, have heightened concerns about inflation and recession [1][2]. - The European Central Bank's monetary easing has led to a recovery in manufacturing, boosting industrial demand for metals [1]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The market is currently focused on three main aspects: U.S. government trade conflict stance, Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and geopolitical tensions, all of which influence gold prices [2]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Strategies - The gold-silver ratio has increased due to rising gold prices, leading to a shift in investment towards silver, which is expected to see strong upward momentum due to industrial demand [3]. - Predictions indicate that silver industrial demand could reach a historical high of 680.5 million ounces in 2024, with stable demand expected in 2025 [3]. - Analysts suggest maintaining a long-term trading strategy for precious metals, advising investors to buy on price dips and utilize derivatives for risk hedging [3][4].
美联储理事库克警告:关税或引发通胀反弹 劳动力市场可能因此承压
智通财经网· 2025-06-03 22:27
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook warns that despite recent easing in inflation data, tariffs may lead to a resurgence in inflation and pressure on the labor market [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Trends - Cook highlights that recent trade policy trends significantly increase the likelihood of upward inflation and cooling labor markets [1] - The preferred inflation indicators of the Federal Reserve show a core inflation rate of 2.5% and an overall inflation rate of 2.1% as of April, indicating a gradual decline in inflation [1] - Cook cautions that the recent progress in inflation may be temporary, as price increases related to trade policy changes could complicate further reductions in inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Interest Rates - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain current interest rates, with market expectations suggesting that rate cuts may not occur until September [2] - Cook emphasizes that the current interest rate levels provide the Federal Reserve with flexibility to respond to economic changes [2] - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicates that there may only be one rate cut this year due to most inflation indicators remaining high [2]
高盛宏观:五大要点解读 --- GS Macro_ Five things you need to know
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-28 15:16
Investment Rating - The report suggests a broad theme of USD weakness and recommends various trade ideas focused on Asian currencies and rates [2][4][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the pressure on Asian FX currencies has diminished, allowing for a more favorable environment for receiving Asia rates [2][4]. - It highlights that higher US rates do not necessarily lead to weaker emerging market assets in the context of ongoing de-dollarization [2]. - The report anticipates a further decline in the RMB CFETS index in line with a weaker DXY [8]. Trade Ideas - Short the RMB CFETS index while buying 6-month USDJPY options with a strike of 135, EURUSD options above 1.16, and USDCNH options above 7.0, with a target return of approximately 9% [4]. - Buy 1-month USDKRW 1350-1300-1250 put fly options at around 60 basis points, with a maximum leverage of 6.4x [4]. - Buy 3-month USDTWD 28 binary puts while selling 3-month USDTWD 30.2 binary calls at zero cost [5]. - Short 1-month USDMYR with a preferred entry at 4.25, targeting a move to 4.0 with a stop loss above 4.30 [5][6]. Rates Strategies - Buy KTB 2 ⅝ 03/10/27 Corp bonds with a preferred entry at 2.35%, hedged with a 1-month FX swap for yield enhancement [7]. - Receive 2-year CNY NDIRS at 1.49%, targeting a move to 1.2% with a stop loss above 1.65% [7]. - Receive 1-year HKD IRS at 2.7%, targeting a move to 2.4% with a stop loss above 2.85% [7]. - Long 5-year IndoGB (FR104) at 6.42%, with an extended target of 6.2% and a tightened stop loss at 6.55% [7].
那个喊抄底的交易员,决定获利离场【今日图表】
华尔街见闻· 2025-05-07 11:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a shift from bullish to neutral market sentiment, as Goldman Sachs' chief strategist suggests that the market is entering a consolidation phase after a strong rebound [3][6][7] - Following a significant market rebound, the S&P 500 index increased by 15% within a month, but the current prices reflect optimistic trade outlooks that may be offset by upcoming weak economic data [4][7] - Goldman Sachs' strategist warns that the recent sharp rebound in the stock market could be a typical bear market rally, with historical data showing an average duration of 44 days and a 14% increase during such rallies [8] Group 2 - Multiple leading indicators suggest that U.S. inflation is likely to rebound, with the New York Fed's manufacturing price index rising to 51, the highest since August 2022, and similar increases noted in other regional Fed indices [11][12] - Poland is projected to surpass Japan in living standards this year, a prediction made by the International Monetary Fund, which was once considered unrealistic [15] - The U.S. trade deficit expanded to a record level of $140.5 billion in March, driven by a 4.4% increase in imports, reaching a record $419 billion, while exports saw only a slight increase of 0.2% [21][23]
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250506
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 09:50
2025.05.06-05.09 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中,当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期由于宏观经济数据边际改善削弱避险需求、贸易摩擦短期缓和叠加 技术性调整,导致了黄金价格高位回落。但中长期支撑逻辑未变:美国 财政赤字及全球央行购金仍提供基本面支撑。需关注5月非农数据及美 联储缩表节奏变化,若地缘风险再起或通胀反弹,贵金属可能重获上行 动能。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 五一长假临近,注意风险,建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调压力犹存,等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑:758-765,上方压力829-836。 品种诊断情况 | 黄金(au) v | | 黄金(au) v | | --- | --- | --- | | 品和立新 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 · | | | | | 品和诊断 | 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资記 | | - AI品种诊 ...