Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stocks falling, bond yields mostly declining, and the US Treasury yield dropping to 4.07%. The US dollar index oscillated and closed flat at 97.7, non - US currencies showed mixed performance, gold prices rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15.1, the spot commodity index fell, and Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel [1][9] - The market is concerned about Trump's influence on the Fed's personnel changes, and concerns about the Fed's independence have increased but not significantly fermented. There are significant differences among Fed officials' views before the September interest - rate meeting, with some dovish and some hawkish. The market has fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in September, and the expectation of a 50bp rate cut has increased, but a significant rate cut is still a low - probability scenario due to inflation rebound pressure [2][11] - The August non - farm payrolls report showed that the US employment market continued to cool down, with new non - farm jobs falling short of expectations, the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and wage growth slowing down. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and the weakening labor market may lead to a weaker US dollar [2][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stocks fell, bond yields mostly declined, the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.07%. The US dollar index oscillated and closed flat at 97.7, non - US currencies had mixed performance, gold prices rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15.1, the spot commodity index fell, and Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly fell. The S&P 500 index rose 0.33%, euro - zone stock markets mostly fell, emerging - market stock markets mostly rose, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.36%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7% [10][11] - The market is concerned about Trump's influence on the Fed's personnel changes, and concerns about the Fed's independence have increased. Fed officials have different views before the September interest - rate meeting, and the August non - farm payrolls report is a key factor [11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.07%, euro - zone government bond yields mostly declined, and emerging - market bond yields mostly declined [18] - The August non - farm payrolls report strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, pushing down the US Treasury yield. However, the manufacturing and service PMI showed increased price - rising pressure, and the upcoming August CPI in the US is expected to rebound, limiting the downward space of the long - end US Treasury yield [19] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly dropped to 1.776%, and the Sino - US interest - rate spread inverted to 229bp. The domestic bond market remained weak [22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index oscillated and closed at 97.7, non - US currencies had mixed performance. The offshore RMB fell 0.05%, the euro rose 0.28%, the pound rose 0.04%, the yen fell 0.26%, and some currencies depreciated while others appreciated [27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, reaching a new high. Trump's intervention in the Fed increased concerns about its independence, which was positive for gold. The expectation of a rate cut increased, but significant rate cuts were less likely due to inflation [30] - Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel. The decline in crude oil inventory was less than expected, supply increased, and weak supply - demand relationship pressured oil prices. The domestic industrial product anti - involution trading was volatile, and the commodity spot index fell [30] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The August non - farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and new non - farm jobs only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000. The labor market continued to weaken, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September [33] - The non - farm data made the weakening trend of the US dollar index more obvious, and the market is more inclined to a soft landing of the US economy, with continued bearish sentiment on the US dollar index [34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: China's August imports and exports, US August New York Fed inflation expectations - Tuesday: US August NFIB small business confidence index, US 2025 non - farm employment benchmark change preliminary value - Wednesday: China's August CPI, US August PPI - Thursday: US August CPI, ECB September interest - rate meeting resolution - Friday: US September University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations [35]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic acknowledges the need for a slight easing of policy due to signs of a slowing labor market, despite inflation control remaining a priority [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari highlights the gap between the current federal funds rate target range and the neutral rate, suggesting room for gradual rate reductions to align with long-term economic growth [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing low inflation and a strong job market, with current inflation levels exceeding the 2% target [3] - The latest Beige Book indicates that while some businesses have passed on cost increases to customers, many are hesitant to raise prices due to customer sensitivity and concerns about losing business [3]

Core Viewpoint - September appears to be the last opportunity for the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates in the Eurozone, as the key rate was maintained at 2.00% during the last meeting in July, and investors largely expect no rate cuts next month [1] Group 1 - If August's consumer price inflation is lower than expected, the situation regarding interest rates may change [1] - Eurozone CPI data is set to be released next week, which could influence the ECB's decision [1] - Rising energy and commodity prices may lead to further inflation spikes, potentially closing the window for additional easing starting in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, has signaled a high probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September, with market expectations reaching 91.1% for this move, potentially followed by another cut by year-end [1] Economic Indicators - Current economic conditions are stable, but there are concerns regarding a slight softening in the employment sector, which could pose risks [1] - Inflation expectations remain anchored at the 2% target, despite previous price increases due to tariffs, which Powell described as a "one-time shock" [1] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets reacted positively, with the Dow Jones reaching a historic high above 46,000 points and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.88%. Related financial indices in the A-share market rose by 2.7% [1] - The anticipated interest rate cut is expected to lead to a higher opening for A-shares, driven by a weaker dollar and increased foreign investment [1] Investment Considerations - While the interest rate cut is seen as a positive signal, there are underlying concerns about potential economic weakness and the risk of a recession, which could negatively impact both U.S. and A-share markets [1] - The possibility of a rebound in inflation could lead to tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, disrupting market momentum [1] - A prior increase in A-share prices may indicate that some investors have already positioned themselves, raising the risk of a sell-off if the market opens too high [1] Strategic Focus - Future investment strategies should closely monitor U.S. economic data, particularly employment and inflation metrics, as well as the opening trends and trading volumes in the A-share market [1]

Core Insights - The UK CPI data for July shows a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, exceeding market expectations and the previous value of 3.6% [1] - Core CPI also rose by 3.8%, surpassing both the forecast and prior value of 3.7% [1] - Following the data release, the British pound strengthened against the euro and experienced fluctuations against the US dollar [1] Economic Context - Prior to the data release, many market institutions anticipated a rebound in the UK CPI, and the actual results exceeded these expectations [1] - The Bank of England had previously predicted inflation would rise further, reaching a peak of 4% in September before gradually declining to the target rate of 2% [1] - Recent economic data indicates a 1.2% year-on-year GDP growth and a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth for the second quarter, both above market expectations [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Market institutions are now forecasting that the Bank of England may pause interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting to assess whether inflation is exerting sustained upward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in the Federal Reserve's stance from hawkish to dovish, indicating a potential resumption of interest rate cuts due to weakening economic data and external pressures, with expectations for a possible rate cut as early as September 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts after a series of reductions in late 2024, with the federal funds rate remaining in the 4.25%-4.5% range, reflecting a dilemma between preventing economic recession and controlling inflation [3][4]. - Recent changes in the economic environment have led to increased signals of a dovish shift within the Federal Reserve, with market predictions suggesting a potential rate cut in September [3][4]. Economic Indicators and Influences - Economic data shows signs of weakening, with the manufacturing PMI dropping from 52.9 in June to 49.8 in July, and non-farm payrolls in July only adding 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations [7][8]. - Tariff impacts on inflation have been relatively mild, with 64% of tariff costs absorbed by U.S. companies, leading to a manageable inflation environment, as indicated by the PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in June [9]. Political and Internal Pressures - Former President Trump has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates, arguing that lower rates would benefit the economy and his political standing ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [10]. - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve have shifted, with an increase in dovish voices among its members, influenced by both external political pressures and changing economic conditions [10][11]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The upcoming rate cuts are expected to be preventive rather than reactive, with a high probability (91.5%) of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [12][19]. - The anticipated rate cuts may occur 2-3 times within the year, totaling 50-75 basis points, as the Federal Reserve aims to maintain flexibility in response to evolving economic conditions [20]. Global and Chinese Market Implications - The resumption of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to have a positive impact on global and Chinese financial markets, with expectations of a weaker dollar and potential capital inflows into emerging markets [21][22]. - China's monetary policy may gain new room for easing, with potential for further rate cuts and a favorable environment for the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar [25][26].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above $9,274, with a recent increase of 1.43% to $9,300 per ounce, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The July core CPI in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month and increased from 2.9% to 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, while the overall CPI rose by 0.2% and remained at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut probability of 59.9% by October [3] Group 2 - The silver market is currently experiencing a high-level consolidation, with expectations of limited upward movement, targeting levels around $9,350 to $9,400 in the near term [4] - The inflation data suggests a structural upward trend in U.S. inflation, which may complicate consensus on monetary policy decisions within the Federal Reserve [2] - The service sector shows signs of increased activity, with notable price increases in airfares and medical costs, while housing costs have only risen modestly, providing a balancing effect [2]

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the U.S. core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year increase from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations [1] - Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 2.7%, slightly below expectations [1] - Inflation in July showed characteristics of moderate goods prices and a rebound in services, with tariff costs still being transmitted to retail, although some prices have decreased [1] Inflation Trends - Some previously declining service prices have turned to increases, contributing to the stickiness of inflation [1] - The assessment maintains that U.S. inflation is entering a structural upward phase [1] Federal Reserve Implications - For the Federal Reserve, the core CPI is not converging towards the 2% target but instead has returned to above 3%, moving further away from the target [1] - This situation may increase internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, making it difficult to reach a consensus on policy decisions [1] - The variability in monetary policy paths is expected to significantly increase, leading to heightened market volatility [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights criticism from Neil Meta, the fixed income head at Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay, regarding the Bank of England's recent decision to cut interest rates despite high inflation rates [1] - The UK's inflation rate stood at 3.6% in June and is expected to rise to 4% in September, raising confusion in the market about the central bank's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4% [1] - Meta points out a contradiction between the central bank's acknowledgment of rising medium-term inflation risks and its decision to lower rates, questioning the adequacy of the bank's assessment of the labor market's weakness [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for the Bank of England to maintain a higher policy discipline to avoid premature easing signals while inflation remains uncontrolled, which could lead to prolonged inflationary pressures and harm long-term economic stability [1] - The current market dynamics show the GBP/USD exchange rate at 1.3434, with a slight increase of 0.04%, indicating short-term upward momentum, although there are potential resistance levels and targets for downward movement [1] - Key support levels for GBP/USD are identified at 1.32 and the Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3140, with further focus on 1.30 and 1.2938 if the 1.2900 level is breached, potentially leading to a drop towards 1.2700 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may weaken the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the expectation of global aluminum ingot inventory accumulation puts pressure on aluminum prices [1]. - For alumina, the slight increase in domestic and imported bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the expected supply - demand loosening due to rising operating capacity may lead to a weak and volatile alumina price [4]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the increasing social inventory at home and abroad may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai aluminum prices [5]. - For aluminum alloy, the tight supply of scrap aluminum leads to continued losses in domestic recycled aluminum alloy production, and the rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may keep the aluminum alloy price in a volatile pattern [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors** - Domestic bauxite production and imports in August may increase, with prices rising slightly. Projects such as the Shanxi Jinzhong energy - saving and efficiency - enhancing renovation project and the Guangxi Fangchenggang new - construction project may increase China's alumina production in August. The domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the matching surplus of China's alumina to electrolytic aluminum operating capacity in July has expanded [4]. - The Indonesian project of Nanshan Aluminum may increase production, and the import window is closed, resulting in a decrease in domestic alumina imports and an increase in exports in August, and a decrease in domestic port alumina inventory [4]. - **Investment strategy** - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the pressure level around 3300 - 3600 [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors** - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in August may increase due to project resumptions and new constructions. Imports in August may also increase as some overseas plants resume production [5]. - **Demand - side factors** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has increased, but there are differences in different product segments [5]. - **Investment strategy** - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors** - The production of domestic scrap aluminum in August may decrease, and imports may increase. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys in August may increase, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished - product inventory may decrease [7]. - **Investment strategy** - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 19700 - 19900 and the pressure level around 20200 - 20300 [7].