Group 1 - David Rosenberg warns of an impending U.S. economic recession, suggesting that the current "full cup" state of the stock market will suffer significantly [1] - Rosenberg believes the market is ignoring risks such as tariffs, taxes, geopolitical conflicts, and economic concerns, indicating a disconnect between market optimism and underlying economic signals [1][2] - He expresses a cautious outlook on the stock market, citing a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times in the context of over 4% risk-free interest rates as unattractive [2] Group 2 - Rosenberg acknowledges previous concerns about economic downturns in 2022 and 2023 but reiterates his bearish stance, noting an increase in mortgage refinancing activity and a 25% excess in supply over demand in the housing market [3] - He highlights a cooling labor market and persistent moderate inflation, criticizing the Federal Reserve for inaction and suggesting that rate cuts may come too late to salvage the economy [5] - Rosenberg points out a significant deflationary trend in the service sector, predicting that inflation levels next year will be lower than in a scenario without tariffs [6] Group 3 - The signals from the dollar and bond markets contradict the current optimistic sentiment in the stock market, leading Rosenberg to question where investors should allocate their funds [6] - He indicates that if the signals from the dollar and bond markets are accurate, the S&P 500 index will struggle to maintain levels above 6000 points [7] - As of the latest data, the S&P 500 index closed at 6141 points, just below its historical high, while the dollar index has dropped by 10% this year [10]

英国央行货币政策委员格林：数据波动较大意味着我需要更长时间才能对近期的通胀放缓趋势感到满 意。 ...

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials indicate that the latest data shows inflation has eased more than expected since the monetary policy meeting in April [1] Group 1 - The RBI's assessment highlights a significant reduction in inflation levels, suggesting a more favorable economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has observed a trend of slowing inflation, but the sustainability of this trend remains to be confirmed [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank indicates that inflation is showing signs of deceleration [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current trend of inflation reduction can be maintained in the long term [1]

美元/加元正在接近1.3588的支撑位，这对应于四小时图上下降楔形形态的底部。该水平现在已成为近 期阻力位，有助于看跌势头。 相对强弱指数（RSI）目前接近32，表明看跌偏见并接近超卖区域，但仍有进一步下跌的潜力。 如果看跌势头持续，价格可能会达到心理支撑位1.3500，并可能导致价格进一步下跌至10月的低点 1.3472。另一方面，如果价格升至1.3588上方并突破心理阻力位1.3600，则可能为美元/加元多头提供重 新测试10周期简单移动平均线（SMA）1.3624的机会。 最新财经数据一览： 待定欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告 同样在周五，密歇根大学发布了初步消费者信心调查，显示美国家庭的信心明显上升。与此同时，一年 期和五年期消费者通胀预期均小幅走低，与本周早些时候低于预期的消费者价格指数和生产者价格指数 数据相呼应。通胀放缓增加了美联储降息的可能性，从而降低了美国收益率并打压了美元。 周一（6月16日）亚盘时段，美元/加元冲高回落，目前交投于1.3605附近，截止北京时间11:29，美元对 加元报价1.3599，涨幅0.11%，上一交易日美元兑加元汇率最低价为1.3652，收盘价报1.3584。加元兑美 ...

美国5月通胀依然温和，表明当前的关税尚未明显推高消费价格。市场普遍预计，美联储将在下周的会议上维持利率不变，等待观察特朗 普政策对经济的影响。 股市方面，PPI和就业数据公布后，盘前美股期货跌幅收窄。美股盘初，三大股指小幅下跌，道指跌0.36%，标普500指数跌0.2%，纳指 跌0.2%。 | 트 道琼斯指数 | 42,668.05 | 42,737.36 | 42,606.42 | -197.72 | -0.46% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 트 标普500指数 | 6.017.59 | 6,017.75 | 6,003.88 | -4.71 | -0.08% | | 트 纳斯达克综合指数 | 19,591.14 | 19,599.09 | 19,553.56 | -24.74 | -0.13% | 标普500指数自4月低点反弹逾20%之后，股市交易活跃度开始显示出疲态。 中概股多数下跌，哔哩哔哩跌约1%。科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌约1%。 美国就业市场、通胀均降温。美国上周首次申请高于预期，续请人数飙升至2021年底来最高，美国5月PPI环比温和上涨0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, which is putting pressure on the US dollar [1] Group 1 - Recent data indicates a slowdown in inflation and the job market, enhancing the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as this fall [1] - The geopolitical leadership adjustments by Trump and his aggressive tariff agenda are contributing to the weakening of the dollar [1]

今日周二（6月10日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于36.30一线下方，今日开盘于36.72美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报36.44美元/盎司，下跌0.78%，最高触及36.81元/盎司，最低下探至36.29美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 周二公布的一项调查显示，澳洲5月企业活动陷入停滞，尽管澳洲当月降息，但消费者仍捂紧钱包，与 此同时，企业报告利润率压力加大。澳洲国民银行(NAB)调查显示，5月企业现况指数小幅下降2点至 0，远低于正6左右的长期平均水平。企业信心指数小幅上升3点至正2，但从历史上来看仍处于疲软状 态。 分析师Sally Auld表示："从行业来看，零售业状况和信心持续疲软，与第一季消费回升幅度低于预期的 情况相符。衡量零售业获利能力和交易条件的指标明显弱于其他行业。"尽管澳洲联储5月和2月降息， 通胀放缓，但消费者仍然不愿支出。鉴于第一季经济表现令人失望，市场押注澳洲央行将在7月再次放 松政策。 NAB调查显示，5月销售指数下降1点至正5，就业指数下降4点至0。获利能力指标仍保持在负4的低 位，劳动力和采购成本挤压了利润率。Auld表示："就业指数降至平 ...

俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜：通胀放缓使降低关键利率变得可能。 ...

张津镭：黄金"高空时代"来临！PPI数据夜，谨防市场再掀风暴 昨日黄金走了一个大跌行情，白盘一直高位震荡，反弹至3235附近进场空单，毕竟还是跌势为主，止损 也适当拉大。随后美盘金价开始大跌，直接跌破3200关口，空单亦是于3180附近大赚止盈离场。最终金 价是收盘于3176美元，日线收于一个大阴线。 周四（5月15日）昨日市场上有消息称美国与日本、韩国、印度的贸易关税协议"接近达成"。资金纷纷 从黄金这个"避风港"里跑出来，跑去拥抱那些风险资产，黄金需求就像坐滑梯一样。因此，现在黄金支 撑不是很强。 不过今晚将公布美国PPI数据，如果继续显示通胀放缓，美联储降息预期可能再升温，黄金或能喘口 气；但如果数据意外强劲，金价可能继续"自由落体，也就是要试探3100关口了。除非特朗普再出幺蛾 子或者中东俄乌冲突新的升级，不然现在局势就是高空为主了。 从技术上来看，日内黄金继续保持看调整预期，上方可关注3200整数关口压力，隔夜回弹仅至3197一 线，后半夜以及今日早盘回弹也均未过3195，所以日内短暂震荡后可能会再有下跌延续，下方关注3140 附近，此位也依然只是暂时的支撑，后期行情持续下跌力度增强的话，短期或可能 ...