美国11月通胀数据引发争议，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯明确指出数据遭技术因素扭曲，但也肯定通胀放缓 进程仍在持续。 纽约联储主席长威廉姆斯周五表示，目前没有进一步调整利率的紧迫性，最近的就业和通胀数据也并未 改变他的看法。 威廉姆斯在在CNBC的"Squawk Box"节目中表示："就我个人而言，我认为目前没有必要在货币政策方 面采取进一步行动，因为我们已经实施的降息措施让我们处于非常有利的地位。我希望看到通胀率降至 2%，同时又不给劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。这需要权衡。" 对于备受争议的消费者价格指数（CPI），威廉姆斯表示，"技术因素"可能扭曲了11月份的通胀数据， 导致总体读数低于正常水平。 威廉姆斯称："存在一些特殊的实际因素，这与他们无法收集10月份和11月上半月的数据有关。正因如 此，我认为某些类别的数据出现了偏差，导致CPI读数下降了大约十分之一。 " 他补充道，"目前难以确定具体影响，等拿到12月的数据后，我认为我们将能更清楚地了解这种扭曲的 程度、影响有多大，但我确实认为这些技术因素导致读数被压低了一些。" 美国劳工统计局延迟发布的报告显示，上月CPI年化增长率为2.7%。道琼斯调查的经济学家此 ...

12月19日，市场消化通胀放缓数据，金价震荡回调，截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4353美元/ 盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.04%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌0.28%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨 1.61%。 消息面上，交易员们现在关注周五美国经济数据，包括成屋销售数据和修订后的密歇根大学消费者信心 指数。这些数据，加上美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)重要成员的讲话，可能会影响美元，并为黄金带 来短期交易机会。 大有期货指出，回顾本轮行情，金银价格自2023年末美联储释放转向信号以来已累积了巨大涨幅，尤其 是黄金价格站上每盎司4300美元的历史高位。因此，尽管数据本身方向利好，但其对价格的边际提振效 应已显著减弱。市场短期或转入高位盘整、以时间换空间的格局，通过震荡来消化浮盈、重塑共识，并 等待下一个明确的宏观数据或政策信号来指引方向。 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a slight increase on December 19, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, including copper, aluminum, and rare earths, with Yun Aluminum rising over 60% [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF (560860) saw a trading volume exceeding 3.1 billion, surpassing the total from the previous day, indicating active trading with frequent premiums in the market [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF has attracted significant capital, with over 5.8 billion raised in the last 10 days, over 11 billion in the last 20 days, and over 28 billion in the last 60 days, bringing its latest scale to 69.88 billion [1] Group 2 - Internationally, U.S. inflation showed unexpected easing, with the November core CPI rising by 2.6%, the lowest since 2021, providing the Federal Reserve with substantial room to consider interest rate cuts [3] - LME metal futures generally rose, with LME copper increasing by 41 USD to 11,778 USD/ton and LME aluminum rising by 10 USD to 2,916 USD/ton [3] - In the rare earth sector, Chinese authorities have communicated policies to exporters, with some exporters meeting the basic requirements for applying for general licenses, indicating a potential increase in exports [3] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan Securities, copper is expected to see dual positive catalysts from its financial and commodity attributes, with increased demand and inventory pressures due to insufficient supply [3] - Aluminum is anticipated to break out of its three-year price range due to strong demand and low inventory, entering a phase of significant upward movement driven by demand catalysts [4] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, covering leading strategic resources such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths, providing opportunities for investors to capitalize on cyclical and policy-driven benefits [4]

今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，国际金价回落至4350美元以下，延续了前一个交易日的震荡整理态势。 此次回调主要由于短期合约中的获利回吐和多头头寸减少，而非出现显著的趋势性抛售压力。在连续创 下新高之后，部分投资者选择暂时离场观望，导致金价短期内承受一定压力。 摘要今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，国际金价回落至4350美元以下，延续了前一个交易日的震荡整理态 势。此次回调主要由于短期合约中的获利回吐和多头头寸减少，而非出现显著的趋势性抛售压力。在连 续创下新高之后，部分投资者选择暂时离场观望，导致金价短期内承受一定压力。 然而，需注意的是，美国政府此前的停摆问题对部分经济数据的统计和完整性造成了影响，使得市场在 解读通胀走势时保持谨慎态度。短期内，投资者将密切关注即将公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以 评估通胀预期和消费信心的变化趋势。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 从技术结构看，黄金依旧保持鲜明的多头格局：价格稳于关键均线之上，高低点逐步抬升，趋势延续性 良好。目前金价坚守100周期指数均线支撑，中期上升通道完好无损。 RSI运行于中轴之上，虽有回落仍处强势区，显示多头仍占优；布林带持续开口，预示行情具备进 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

要剑三(Z0019656) 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 广发 HISTEDP 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考。 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品神买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 | 【每日精选观点】 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | | 合约 | 观点 | | | 锡 | | SN2601 | 農荡偏强 | | | 塑料 | | 12605 | 趋势偏弱 | | | 焦煤 | | JM2605 | 底部反弹 | | | 菜油 | | 01605 | 農荡偏弱 | | | PT2606/PD | 钳、锂 | 2606 | 逢低多 | | | 【全品种日评】 | | | | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | IF2512 | | IH2512 | 红利板块逆势上扬,A股风格偏向防御 | 美国11月物价数据超预期下行 ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 铜：内外库存减少，价格获得支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 92,600 | -0.24% | 92870 | 0.29% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,727 | -0.13% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 288,527 | -1,237 | 622,036 | 5,683 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 31,364 | 14,534 | 345,000 | 611 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 44,650 | -227 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 164,275 | -2,650 | 37.47% | -1.14% | | | | ...

随着CPI降至3.2%，英国央行将基准利率下调至3.75%，巴克莱（BCS）等英国银行面临环境变化；英 国央行暗示未来进一步降息将"更加审慎"。 随着CPI降至3.2%，英国央行将基准利率下调至3.75%，巴克莱（BCS）等英国银行面临环境变化；英 国央行暗示未来进一步降息将"更加审慎"。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

沃勒称，降息并不存在迫切性，美联储可以"稳步地"将政策利率逐步向中性水平靠拢，以应对通胀放缓 但经济仍具韧性的局面。 来源：央视新闻客户端 总台记者当地时间12月17日获悉，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，美国货币政策目前仍处于限制性 区间，美联储在未来具备进一步降息的空间。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储保尔森：明年通胀"很有可能"放缓。 ...