Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential upward movement in Q4 due to recovering demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors, despite current inventory pressures [3][4]. Macro Environment - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has increased, leading to a weaker US dollar this week [3]. Supply and Demand - The inventory arbitrage logic between the US and non-US regions has ended, with previously stored inventory in the US becoming more visible, leading to short-term accumulation pressure on LME and COMEX [3]. - Domestic cable operating rates have slightly decreased, and air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [3]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 4.8%, while LME copper inventory increased by 0.1% [4]. - As of August 15, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 558,000 tons, down 10.0% from the previous week [4]. Raw Materials - In July, domestic old scrap copper production increased by 3% month-on-month and 1% year-on-year [5]. - China's copper concentrate production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In July, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [6][7]. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a slight decrease in operating rates [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year for the months of August to October [8]. Futures Market - As of August 15, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 5% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 36% [9].

2025 年 8 月 17 日 行业研究 COMEX 铜非商业空头创 2012 年 1 月以来新低 ——铜行业周报（20250811-20250815） 要点 本周小结：铜价短期仍维持震荡。截至 2025 年 8 月 15 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 79060 元/吨，环比8月8日+0.73%；LME铜收盘价9760 美元/吨，环比8月8日-0.08%。 （1）宏观：美联储 9 月降息概率增加，美元本周走弱。（2）供需：美国与非 美地区的库存套利逻辑已结束，原搬运至美国的库存将逐步显性化，短期 LME 和 COMEX 均面临累库压力；国内线缆开工率本周小幅回落，8-10 月空调排产 同比下降，铜价短期震荡。但矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求 Q4 回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，Q4 铜价有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-4.8%，LME 铜库存环比+0.1%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 15 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 55.8 万吨，环比上周 -10.0%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 11 日，全球三大交易所库 存合计 50.2 万吨，环比+6.4%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The US non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, strengthening market expectations for a September interest rate cut, causing the US dollar index to decline and supporting the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The Shanghai copper market has largely priced in previous negative factors, and as domestic terminal demand gradually emerges from the off-season, downstream inventory replenishment demand has been stimulated [4]. - After the US exemption of import tariffs on refined copper, global copper resources may shift to non-US markets in the second half of the year, leading to a recent continuous increase in inventories of LME copper and Shanghai copper [4]. - In July, the production of electrolytic copper reached a record high, and high production is expected to continue in August. Coupled with the rebound of import processing fees, supply pressure remains [4]. - Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile pattern, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors: the decline of the US dollar provides support, but the shift to a looser supply-demand balance and inventory accumulation limit the upside space [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.73%, a position of 152,557 lots, and a trading volume of 50,116 lots [6]. - The latest price of international copper is 70,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.76%, a position of 3,997 lots, and a trading volume of 2,534 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME copper for 3 months is 9,777 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 14,623 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX copper is 449.75 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.89%, a position of 51,622 lots, and a trading volume of 24,634 lots [6]. Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 79,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 650 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.83% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 79,170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 665 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.85% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 79,010 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 630 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.8% [10]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,300 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 660 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.84% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 50% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 85 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 100% [12]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 95 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 111.76% [12]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 78.95% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (spot/3 months) premium/discount is -88.75 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 23.12 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 35.23% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (3 months/15 months) premium/discount is -149 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 9 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 6.43% [12]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest value of copper import profit and loss is 144.92 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 389.96 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of -159.14% [13]. - The latest value of copper concentrate TC is -38 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of -7.32% [13]. - The latest value of the copper-aluminum ratio is 3.8112, with a weekly increase of 0.03 and a weekly increase rate of 0.79% [13]. - The latest value of the refined-scrap copper price difference is 1,098.51 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 314.47 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 40.11% [13]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The latest value of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts (total) is 24,560 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,288 tons and a weekly increase rate of 15.46% [17]. - The latest value of international copper warehouse receipts (total) is 7,422 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,869 tons and a weekly increase rate of 377.91% [17]. - The latest value of Shanghai copper inventory is 86,361 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,428 tons and a weekly increase rate of 5.4% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper registered warehouse receipts is 144,800 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.05% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts is 11,050 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.67% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper inventory is 155,850 tons, with a weekly decrease of 150 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.1% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts is 124,862 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,269 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.03% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts is 141,942 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,239 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.6% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper inventory is 266,804 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,508 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.33% [19]. - The latest value of copper ore port inventory is 429,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.9% [19]. - The latest value of social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19]. Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly production of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and the cumulative production was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21]. - In June 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the cumulative production was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21]. Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 1 percentage point, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 26.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.28 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.43 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 65.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 3 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.66 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 50.45%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.07 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.47 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.88%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.37 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 3.83 percentage points [24]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.560072 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the cumulative import volume was 17.317529 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and the cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -17% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -9% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, with no year-on-year change [26]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 479,902.059 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and the cumulative import volume was 3,112,510.767 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -2.6% [26].

铜价迷局：内外冰火两重天，谁在操纵这出大戏？ 而大洋彼岸的美联储也来"添乱"。美国PPI（生产者物价指数）增幅创下新高，使得市场对美联储降息 的预期彻底破灭。美元的强势上涨，进一步打压了铜价，使得投资者们更加犹豫不决。 长江现货市场亦未能幸免。1号铜价格同样遭遇滑铁卢，跌至79300元/吨，单日跌幅也达到了300元。作 为国内铜市场的风向标，长江现货市场的下跌，无疑给市场参与者敲响了警钟。相比之下，A00铝价格 却表现得异常坚挺，稳坐20710元/吨的宝座，仿佛置身事外。 广东与长江之间的区域价差也进一步扩大至290元，这一现象背后，隐藏着更为复杂的市场逻辑。物流 成本的差异、客户结构的差异，以及广东地区下游企业订单量的萎缩，都可能是造成区域分化的原因。 更令人担忧的是，广东地区下游企业——那些依赖铜管、铜线生存的小型工厂——采购意愿大幅降低， 无疑给当地铜市场蒙上了一层阴影。 再将视线拉回期货市场。上海期货交易所的铜主力合约也未能幸免于难。沪铜2510合约价格下跌140元/ 吨，收于78980元/吨；沪铜2511合约更是下跌160元/吨，报收78970元/吨。投资者们如履薄冰，紧盯着 宏观数据和行业动态，却 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].

南华铜周报 2025年8月8日 铜：震荡偏强，底部抬升 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 铜：震荡偏强，底部抬升 【盘面回顾】沪铜主力期货合约在周中小幅冲高后回落，报收在7.84万元每吨附近，上海有色现货升水120元 每吨。沪铜库存小幅回升至8.2万元；LME库存回升至15.5万吨；COMEX库存继续上涨至26.4万吨，上涨速 度降低。进阶数据方面，铜现货进口亏损缩窄；铜铝比缩稳定在3.79；精废价差小幅回落至784元每吨，小幅 偏低。 【产业表现】智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）最大铜矿El Teniente因7月31日隧道坍塌事故导致6名矿工遇难， 地下作业全面暂停。随着库存矿石耗尽，包括Caletones冶炼厂在内的地面设施被迫进入维护状态，5000名工 人转至地面检查设备。此次事故预计每月减少3万吨铜产量，相当于Codelco四分之一的产能，全球电线、电 子和建筑用铜供应链将受波及。 【核心逻辑】铜价在周中小幅冲高后回落，基本符合预期。智利El Teniente铜矿的矿难事故对于铜价的影响 自事故发生起到现在存在波折 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential upward movement in Q4 due to recovering demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors, despite current inventory pressures [4][5]. Macro Environment - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, leading to a weaker US dollar this week [4]. Supply and Demand - The inventory arbitrage logic between the US and non-US regions has ended, with previously stored inventory in the US becoming more apparent, leading to short-term accumulation pressure on LME and COMEX [4]. - Domestic cable operating rates have rebounded but remain significantly lower than the same period last year, with air conditioning production expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 11.5% [5]. - As of August 8, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 620,000 tons, up 18.8% from the previous week [5]. Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 21 CNY/ton this week [6]. - China's refined copper production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [6]. Smelting - The TC spot price was -38 USD/ton, reflecting a 4 USD/ton increase from the previous week, but still at a low level not seen since September 2007 [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in July was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [7]. Demand - Cable operating rates increased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with cable demand accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year for the months of August to October, with refrigerator production also showing a downward trend [8]. Futures Market - The open interest for SHFE copper contracts decreased by 4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 45% [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to continue rising in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the LME and COMEX copper inventories are facing upward pressure, while domestic cable production rates have increased but remain significantly lower than the previous year [1][2]. - The report suggests that the demand for copper will rebound in Q4 2025, driven by the recovery in electric grid and air conditioning needs [1]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 11.5% [2]. - As of August 8, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 620,000 tons, up 18.8% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 472,000 tons as of August 4, 2025, reflecting a 5.0% increase [2]. Supply - The TC spot price increased by $4 per ton week-on-week, currently at -$37.98 per ton, remaining at historically low levels [3][63]. - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [3][66]. - The report notes a decrease in the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper, indicating potential tightening in scrap supply [2][56]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the current rate at 69.89% [3][75]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year, with expected reductions of 2.8%, 12.7%, and 12.1% for August, September, and October respectively [3][94]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for copper in the power sector remains strong, supported by ongoing investments in power infrastructure [75][82]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 45% [4][32]. - As of August 8, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 157,000 lots, reflecting a 4.1% decrease from the previous week [4][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Group 1: Company Performance and Financials - The company held a half-year performance briefing on August 8, 2025, discussing operational results and financial status with investors [1] - The company reported a net profit decrease due to a fixed asset impairment of 0.52 billion in the first half of the year [2] - The company achieved its best profit indicators since listing, with employee income increasing compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Production and Investment Plans - The company plans to produce 183 kilograms of gold concentrate in 2025, with 134 kilograms produced in the first half of the year [3] - The investment of 4.8 billion for the Yulong Copper Mine Phase III will be gradually invested over two to three years, minimizing impact on dividend plans [2] - The company is exploring resource development opportunities to extend the lifespan of its mines and has commissioned geological research [4] Group 3: Market Outlook and Pricing - Future copper prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and demand, with factors such as mining supply constraints and increased demand from new energy and AI [3][7] - The company maintains a copper hedging ratio below 50% and will adjust this based on market conditions [5] - The company anticipates a complex market environment for the non-ferrous metal industry in 2025, with potential for both challenges and opportunities [7] Group 4: Operational Challenges and Strategies - The company is facing challenges in copper smelting due to extreme processing fees and is working to reduce raw material costs and improve recovery rates [6] - The company is actively taking measures to improve the profitability of its rare and precious metals segment, which has been affected by raw material price fluctuations [6] - The company is committed to enhancing communication with investors and has established a market value management system [2][3]

Group 1 - Copper prices have experienced two waves of fluctuations since the end of June, with a peak of 80,990 yuan/ton and a low of 77,700 yuan/ton by mid-July, influenced by LME copper inventory pressures and policy announcements from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which has positively impacted copper prices, indicating potential for further price increases if detailed policies are released [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold three meetings in the second half of the year, with macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies, likely to influence copper price expectations [1] Group 2 - CSPT decided not to set a reference standard for copper concentrate processing fees for Q3 2025 due to unsustainable market conditions, while new copper mines are expected to contribute to supply in the second half of the year [2] - The construction of container berths at Ningbo Daxie Port may affect the speed of imported scrap copper arrivals, although an increase in anode plate production is anticipated due to higher procurement by refineries [2] - LME copper inventory has accumulated again, alleviating market concerns, while domestic smelting plants are expected to face a maintenance peak from September to November [2] Group 3 - The U.S. copper tariff policy has led to increased volatility in U.S. copper prices without significantly altering global copper inventory structures [3] - The cable industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with no signs of accelerated production in the copper tube sector, while the automotive market is experiencing a consumption peak [3] - The financial attributes of copper prices are expected to enhance, leading to a return to a fluctuating market pattern [3]