Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a complex and volatile situation influenced by macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, with future price movements remaining uncertain [2][3][6] Macroeconomic Factors - Recent positive macroeconomic signals, including rising U.S. stock markets and a declining dollar index, have provided support for copper prices, making it more attractive to overseas buyers [2] - The continuous rise in international oil prices has also boosted market risk appetite, potentially increasing demand for industrial metals like copper [2] Supply Side Challenges - Significant supply disruptions in overseas copper mines have led to a reduction of nearly 1 million tons in annual supply, accounting for 4% of global copper supply, with bleak prospects for recovery [3] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are low, around -50 USD per dry ton, indicating ongoing tightness in supply, although refined copper production has increased due to previous high copper prices [3] Demand Dynamics - Demand in China is mixed, with a weakening outlook as buyers extend their holiday breaks and reduce spot purchases, leading to a rise in inventory levels [4] - However, as the Chinese New Year approaches, some downstream enterprises are showing increased pre-holiday stocking demand, providing some support for copper prices [4] Inventory Trends - LME registered copper inventories have increased by 25% to 184,300 tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have surged over 60% to 248,911 tons, exerting downward pressure on copper prices [5] - The increase in inventory is partly seasonal, and as the holiday period ends, there is potential for inventory to be gradually digested [5] Future Price Outlook - The short-term outlook for copper prices is expected to be volatile, with a potential for upward movement as downstream demand is anticipated to recover post-holiday [6] - Long-term demand prospects for copper remain strong due to global economic recovery and growth in sectors like renewable energy, suggesting opportunities for investors [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Views - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, but there is optimism for an upward trend in copper prices in 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][4] - The TC spot price continues to hit historical lows, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [1][3] - The report recommends specific companies for investment: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - As of February 6, 2026, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports is 638,000 tons, down 5.2% from the previous week [2][46] - The TC spot price is at -51.23 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.9 USD/ton from January 30, 2026, marking a low since September 2007 [3][57] - **Demand**: - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.15% as of February 5, 2026 [4][70] - Air conditioning production is projected to decline by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April 2026 [4][87] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.0% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.9% [2][24] - Global inventory across major exchanges reached 1,021,000 tons, up 3.6% from January 30, 2026 [2][24] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,100 CNY/ton, down 3.45% from January 30, 2026, while LME copper closed at 13,060 USD/ton, down 0.08% [1][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of logistics and inventory changes on copper prices as the 2026 Spring Festival approaches, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and consumer behavior in the copper industry [2][31]. Group 1: Logistics Situation Before and After Spring Festival - Logistics operations are expected to be tighter this year compared to previous years, with early holidays for logistics companies leading to delayed recovery post-festival [8][10]. - The transportation of copper primarily relies on large trucks, with significant cost variations depending on the mode of transport, which can affect overall logistics efficiency [3][4]. - The rising fuel prices have been a major cost factor for logistics companies, impacting their profitability and operational decisions [4][7]. Group 2: Industry Holiday Schedule - Most smelting companies plan to maintain production during the Spring Festival, but logistics disruptions may affect their shipping schedules [10]. - In South China, copper rod manufacturers are largely halting production for the festival, with a significant number of companies planning to resume operations only after February 24 [11][12]. - The overall holiday schedule for various copper-related industries indicates a longer downtime compared to previous years, which may delay inventory depletion [16]. Group 3: Acceptance of High Prices by End Users - Following a surge in copper prices above 100,000, downstream processing and end-user companies exhibited reluctance to purchase at high prices, leading to a drop in transaction volumes [17][20]. - Despite initial hesitance, transaction volumes began to stabilize as prices fluctuated, indicating a potential acceptance of prices around the 100,000 mark [21]. Group 4: Expected Inventory Changes Post-Festival - Historical data suggests that copper inventories typically peak around 33 days after the Spring Festival, with this year’s peak expected to extend to 37-42 days due to delayed logistics and production recovery [26][28]. - The anticipated inventory accumulation post-festival is projected to be between 100,000 to 120,000 tons, with total inventory levels reaching approximately 420,000 to 470,000 tons [26][28]. - The price feedback loop is expected to show a decline in copper prices around t+3 to t+4, with a potential low point occurring in late March to early April [28][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in global copper inventories, which have more than doubled within a year, rising from approximately 470,000 tons to around 1,000,000 tons, reaching a five-year high despite supply disruptions in global mines [1] - The report highlights that as of February 2026, total global copper inventory stands at about 1,000,000 tons, marking a 113% increase compared to 470,000 tons in the same period of 2025, showcasing a shift in the supply-demand dynamics [1] - The copper concentrate treatment charges (TC/RC) remain negative, indicating tight supply on the raw material side, while the net speculative positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have started to decline, reflecting cautious investor sentiment [3] Group 2 - The outlook for the copper market remains cautious, with expectations that copper prices will consolidate around $12,000 per ton (approximately $5.45 per pound), with short-term risks skewed to the downside due to weak demand during the traditional off-season and high inventory levels [7] - The market may see new volatility and upward opportunities only after the second quarter of 2026, contingent on clearer signals of demand recovery post-Chinese New Year, along with potential economic stimulus measures and increased infrastructure investment [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report After a significant decline, copper prices have stabilized and rebounded with the gold price. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, demand is weakening. For enterprises with buy-hedging needs, they can conduct a small amount of hedging, but the position should not be too heavy. It is expected that the copper price will range between RMB 98,000/ton and RMB 110,000/ton before the Spring Festival [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market On February 3, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at RMB 101,490/ton and closed at RMB 104,500/ton, a 6.01% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at RMB 104,950/ton and closed at RMB 105,180/ton, a 3.49% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.2 Spot Market In the morning of the previous day, spot copper holders lowered the premium. The mainstream flat copper was quoted at a premium of around RMB 400/ton. The prices in Shanghai and Changzhou markets for some brands dropped to a premium of around RMB 350/ton and were then pressured to RMB 320 - 340/ton for transactions. The mainstream flat copper was still quoted at a premium of RMB 380 - 400/ton with tight supply. Good copper was at a premium of around RMB 420/ton. In the second trading session, some sources were at a premium of RMB 300 - 320/ton, which stimulated downstream purchases. The market's purchase sentiment index rose to 3.18, and the sales sentiment index rose to 3.29. Spot copper merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to lock in profits [2] 3.3 Important News and Information 3.3.1 Macro and Geopolitical The US White House stated that the talks with Iran later this week will proceed as planned. Iran hopes to move the talks to Oman and hold them bilaterally. The US government ended its partial shutdown after the President signed the appropriation bill [3] 3.3.2 Federal Reserve Fed Governor Milan believes that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasizes that monetary policy should remain cautious until inflation fully returns to the target [3] 3.3.3 Mining Rome Resources reported encouraging results for copper and tin from metallurgical tests on its Bisie North project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Drilling in Kalayi is ongoing, and the company will move to Mont Agoma next month [4] 3.3.4 Domestic Policy The deputy secretary-general of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism, and considering including copper concentrates in the reserve [4][5] 3.3.5 Consumption In January 2026, copper product consumption showed pre - holiday rush but with sector differentiation. The power sector was supported by State Grid orders, the home appliance industry was strong due to the year - end peak season, the automotive sector was stable, while the construction and hardware sectors were dragged down by the real estate slump. High copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, and the overall stocking rhythm was earlier and more cautious than in previous years. In February, with the approaching Spring Festival, consumption is expected to enter a seasonal trough [5][6] 3.3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 176,125 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons to 159,021 tons. On February 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 33.04 million tons, an increase of 0.76 million tons from the previous week [6] 3.4 Price and Related Data | | SMM:1 Copper (Premium Copper) | SMM:1 Copper (Flat Copper) | SMM:1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | Yangshan Premium | LME (0 - 3) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (Today)** | - 120 - - 100 | - 130 | - 230 | 43 | - 59 | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (Yesterday)** | - 130 - - 110 | - 150 | - 240 | 45 | - 90 | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (Last Week)** | - 265 - - 235 | - 285 | - 335 | 22 | - 71 | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (One Month Ago)** | - 190 - - 150 | - 225 | - 285 | 49 | 39 | | | LME | SHFE | COMEX | SHFE Warehouse Receipts | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Inventory (Today)** | 176,125 | 233,004 | 525,962 | 159,021 | 21.68% | | **Inventory (Yesterday)** | 174,675 | | 524,102 | 158,527 | 23.89% | | **Inventory (Last Week)** | 172,350 | 225,937 | 513,145 | 144,908 | 26.23% | | **Inventory (One Month Ago)** | 142,550 | | 453,448 | 81,775 | 24.98% | | | CU05 - CU02 (Continuous Third - Near Month) | CU03 - CU02 (Main - Near Month) | CU03/AL03 | CU03/ZN03 | Import Profit | SHFE - LME Ratio (Main) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Today** | 690 | 360 | 4.39 | 4.19 | - 536 | 7.64 | | **Yesterday** | 880 | 890 | 4.28 | 4.02 | - 532 | 7.93 | | **Last Week** | 830 | 320 | 4.22 | 4.11 | - 655 | 7.73 | | **One Month Ago** | - 420 | - 560 | 4.29 | 4.22 | - 792 | 7.86 | [26][27][28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral [8] - Option strategy: Sell put options [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper price has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, but it is unlikely to show strong performance before the Spring Festival [1] - The supply shortage and difficult long - term contract negotiations support the price center, but the full increase in global visible inventory and the accumulation of domestic social inventory above 320,000 tons highlight the suppression of real consumption by high copper prices [8] - In February, the supply - demand contradiction will be temporarily alleviated, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate between 97,000 yuan/ton and 110,000 yuan/ton [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 104,200 yuan/ton and closed at 98,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.92% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,490 yuan/ton and closed at 100,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 180 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 130 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan. The spot price range was 99,880 - 101,040 yuan/ton [2] - The decline in copper prices stimulated a significant increase in terminal orders, with some enterprises' order volume increasing by up to 60% [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical: Iran may hold high - level nuclear negotiations with the US in the next few days, and the Russia - Ukraine issue negotiation will be held in Abu Dhabi from February 4 - 5 [3] - The US plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve project "Project Vault" with an initial capital of $12 billion [3] - Mine end: The Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile of Capstone Copper has resumed operation, but the strike by nearly 22% of its employees is still ongoing [4] - Smelting and import: LME copper inventory increased and then decreased slightly, SHFE copper inventory continued to accumulate, international copper inventory decreased, and New York copper inventory continued to accumulate [5] - Consumption: In January 2026, copper product terminal consumption showed pre - holiday rush characteristics with differentiation among sectors. In February, terminal consumption is expected to enter a seasonal trough [6] - Inventory and warrants: LME warrants decreased by 1,100 tons to 174,675 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 1,676 tons to 158,527 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 330,400 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy - Copper: Maintain a neutral rating. The spot TC at the mine end has dropped to a record low of - 49.84 dollars/ton. The supply shortage and difficult long - term contract negotiations support the price center. The copper price is expected to fluctuate between 97,000 yuan/ton and 110,000 yuan/ton in February [8] - Option: Sell put options [8]

Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the outlook for copper prices in 2026 remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while LME copper closed at 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [4]. - The market perceives a low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026, which may affect overall commodity sentiment [4]. Group 2: Inventory Analysis - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 2.2%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2.6% [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 986,000 tons, up 2.8% from January 23 [5]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 765 CNY/ton this week [6]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in January 2026 was 1.1793 million tons, up 0.1% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of January 30, 2026, was -50.30 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from January 23 [7]. Group 5: Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rate to 59.46%, up 0.75 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline year-on-year by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April [8]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of January 30, 2026, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts was 223,000 lots, down 2.6% from the previous week [9]. - The non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 48,000 lots, down 8.0% from the previous week [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货104460，基差-780， 贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：1月30日铜库存减1100至174975吨，上期所铜库存较上周增7067吨至233004吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，注意仓位控制 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to recover after a sharp decline, and the copper price may show a mainly volatile and upward - trending market. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [1][4][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In January, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend, with the price range between approximately 97,730 yuan/ton and 114,160 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 7398.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profits decreased by 3.9%, joint - stock enterprises' profits decreased by 0.1%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profits increased by 4.2%, and private enterprises' profits remained the same as the previous year [9] - In 2025, the profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 3.0 times year - on - year, the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 22.6%, the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.5%, and the power and heat production and supply industry increased by 13.9% [10] - On January 30, US President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75% [12] 3.3 Supply Side - As of December 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. As of January 27, 2026, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 5.18 cents/pound, and the rough - smelting fee was - 50 dollars/kiloton [13] - As of January 28, 2026, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumao was 101,525 yuan/ton, the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 89,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 3,130 yuan/ton, maintaining a relatively high level in the past five years [18] 3.4 Demand Side - As of December 31, 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2291 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [21] 3.5 Inventory Side - As of January 30, 2026, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 233,004 tons, an increase of 7,067 tons from the previous week. As of January 29, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 176,075 tons, an increase of 2,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 23.74%. As of January 30, 2026, the COMEX copper inventory was 577,724 tons, an increase of 2,591 tons from the previous trading day. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area was 98,900 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous week [24] 3.6 Outlook - The influencing factors of copper price trends include Chinese policies, supply, demand, and inventory. Chinese policies and supply have a relatively high impact on copper prices [30] - Considering various factors, the copper price may show a mainly volatile and upward - trending market. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, driven by tight supply and improving demand [4][10] - As of January 30, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while the LME copper closing price was 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [1][17] - The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper social inventory by 2.2% and an increase in LME copper inventory by 2.6% [2][25] Supply Summary - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a 0.1% increase month-on-month and a 16.3% increase year-on-year [3][65] - The TC spot price was -50.30 USD/ton, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [3][60] - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [2][46] Demand Summary - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.46% as of January 29, 2026 [4][74] - Air conditioning production for February to April 2026 is projected to decline by 31.6%, 6.5%, and increase by 4.0% year-on-year [4][92] - The report indicates that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also paying attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]