Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The macro - face shows that the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The zinc ore import volume has increased, but the domestic zinc ore processing fee has decreased, and the sulfuric acid price has dropped, leading to a significant contraction in smelter profits and limited growth in refined zinc production. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect is weak, the real - estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home - appliance sectors bring some bright spots. The domestic social inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME inventory has continued to decline with a high spot premium. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,365 yuan/ton, up 10; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 55 yuan/ton, down 15; the LME three - month zinc quote is 3,019.5 dollars/ton, down 3; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 213,490 lots, up 94; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 7,317 lots, up 1,141; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 65,724 tons, down 125; the SHFE inventory is 109,168 tons, down 459; the LME inventory is 37,600 tons, up 2,900; the SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan/ton, up 20; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 20 [3] 现货市场 - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 155 yuan/ton, up 10; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 187.37 dollars/ton, down 38.52; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,000 yuan/ton, up 80; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons; the ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons; the zinc social inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 14.47%, up 1.14%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 14.48%, up 1.15%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.36%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 9.82%, down 0.06% [3] Industry News - China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on important economic and trade issues; the US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts in the remaining time of the year [3] 提示关注 - There is no news today [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report indicates that the fundamentals of zinc show a supply shortage in the global zinc market from January to August 2025, but factors such as the basis, inventory, and the main position suggest a mixed outlook. The overall expectation for SHFE zinc contract ZN2512 is a sideways and bearish trend [2][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Zinc Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. 2. Zinc Futures Market on October 24 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts totaled 204,908 lots, with a total turnover of 2.28443242 billion yuan. The open interest was 213,396 lots, a decrease of 3,282 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market on October 24 - The domestic spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,160 - 22,260 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,090 - 22,190 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,185 - 22,285 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 22,235 - 22,335 yuan/ton [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics from October 13 - 23, 2025 - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on October 23 was 1.635 million tons, showing an increasing trend compared to October 13 [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on October 24 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange on October 24 were 65,849 tons, an increase of 320 tons from the previous day [7]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory on October 24 - The LME zinc inventory on October 24 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous day [9]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Prices on October 24 - The prices of 50% grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities increased by 70 yuan/ton [11]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices on October 24 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 90 yuan/ton [14]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The production of refined zinc in September 2025 was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 509,600 tons [17]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees on October 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 105 US dollars/dry ton [4]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on October 24 - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 203,463 lots, a decrease of 41,622 lots from the previous day. The total long position was 84,356 lots, a decrease of 648 lots, and the total short position was 81,659 lots, a decrease of 3,620 lots [20]. 12. Short - term View - The previous trading day saw SHFE zinc fluctuate and rise, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the short side reducing more. The short - term trend may be volatile. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system, and the short - term indicator KDJ rose into the strong zone, while the trend indicator declined, indicating a stalemate between long and short forces. The recommendation for SHFE zinc ZN2512 is a sideways and bearish trend [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach or a bullish mindset. Zinc ore imports are rising as long - term agreement ores arrive at ports and smelters stockpile for winter. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices are falling, squeezing smelter profits and causing losses for some. New production capacity is being released, but refined zinc output growth is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season had a lackluster effect, with the real estate sector being a drag, while the automotive and home appliance sectors had some bright spots due to policy support. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium is low. LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot premium has reached a 27 - year high, intensifying the supply - tight situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,345 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,019.5 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars. - The total SHFE zinc open interest is 216,678 lots, down 13,155 lots; the net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 5,255 lots, up 8,190 lots. - The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 65,529 tons, up 320 tons; the SHFE inventory is 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons; the LME inventory is 35,300 tons, down 1,975 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan. - The ZN main contract basis is - 245 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 spread is 338.74 dollars/ton, up 39.4 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,920 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons. - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 14.19%, up 2.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 14.19%, up 2.16 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.42%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 9.31%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia to hold economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24th to 27th. - The Study Times published an article suggesting improving the linkage between fiscal interest subsidies and financial credit, promoting the coordination of regulatory and industrial policies, and building a long - term mechanism to expand consumption [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach or a long - position thinking [3] 2. Core View - On the supply side, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, the growth of zinc ore processing fees is slowing down, the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, smelters have large profit margins and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and refined zinc production has reached a high level. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, import losses continue to expand, the inflow of imported zinc decreases, and the export window is expected to open. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, the real estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home appliance sectors bring some bright spots. Domestic social inventories have increased, post - holiday market demand remains weak, and the spot premium is at a low level. LME inventories continue to decline, the spot premium has reached a 27 - year high, and the tight situation has intensified [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 305 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,993.5 dollars/ton, up 17.5 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 229,833 lots, up 299 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,935 lots, down 540 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 65,209 tons, down 1,059 tons. The SHFE inventory is 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons, and the LME inventory is 37,275 tons, down 50 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,900 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,780 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 299.34 dollars/ton, up 69.05 dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3上游情况 - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons, and refined zinc exports are 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. The social zinc inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.42%, up 0.09 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.31%, unchanged [3] 3.7行业消息 - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Foreign Ministry has no information to provide. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao had video talks with EU and Dutch officials on trade issues. Reuters survey expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side shows that the imports of zinc ore at home and abroad have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, the profit margin of smelters is large, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities are being released, and refined zinc production has reached a high level. However, the tight overseas zinc ore situation has led to an expansion of import losses and a decline in imported zinc inflows, with the export window nearly opening. On the demand side, the off - peak season in the downstream is evident. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not high, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has stabilized and rebounded. Recently, zinc prices have fallen to a low level. Downstream enterprises are purchasing as needed, with a slow pick - up rhythm, but the arrival volume is low, resulting in a decline in domestic social inventory and a slight increase in spot premiums. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and spot premiums have risen, supporting zinc prices. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, there is a divergence between long and short positions. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 21,800 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the 10 - 11 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,886.5 dollars/ton, down 36 dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 251,024 lots, an increase of 20,743 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 10,043 lots, a decrease of 3,089 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 59,264 tons, an increase of 1,691 tons. The SHFE inventory is 100,544 tons, an increase of 1,229 tons, and the LME inventory is 42,775 tons, a decrease of 1,025 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,630 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,180 yuan/ton, down 780 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 170 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 39.84 dollars/ton, down 14.09 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,710 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,200 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0814 million tons, an increase of 30,100 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 467,300 tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 25,656.83 tons, an increase of 7,752.92 tons; refined zinc exports are 310.91 tons, a decrease of 95.16 tons. The social zinc inventory is 135,300 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.35 million tons, unchanged; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters; the housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, an increase of 26.5954 million square meters. Automobile production is 2.7524 million vehicles, an increase of 242,400 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, a decrease of 3.7777 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.58%, down 0.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.58%, down 0.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.01%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.79%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the focus of future monetary policy is to implement the introduced policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, and tariffs will be imposed if the standard is not met. In August, the US core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month as expected, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc (ZN2511) is expected to be weak with oscillations. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc decline in an oscillatory manner, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, but more short - position exits. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average, with weak moving - average support. Short - term indicators show a rise in KDJ but operating in the weak zone, and the trend indicator indicates a decrease in bullish power and an increase in bearish power, with the bearish side having an expanding advantage [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 21,990 yuan, and the basis was +10, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 26, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 42,775 tons compared to the previous day, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 990 tons to 57,573 tons [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On September 26, the total trading volume of zinc futures on the futures exchange was 194,248 lots, with a total trading value of 2.14006319 billion yuan. The open interest was 230,281 lots, a decrease of 8,181 lots [3]. 5. Spot Market Quotes - On September 26, the price of zinc ingots in Aoshang was 21,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,835 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From September 15 to September 25, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 149,500 tons to 135,400 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons compared to September 18 and 9,100 tons compared to September 22 [5]. 7. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On September 26, the total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 57,573 tons, an increase of 990 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 695 tons, in Jiangsu decreased by 99 tons, and in Tianjin increased by 394 tons [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On September 26, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 42,775 tons, with registered warrants of 30,625 tons and cancelled warrants of 12,150 tons, accounting for 28.40% [7]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 26, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic regions remained unchanged, with prices ranging from 16,530 yuan/ton to 16,730 yuan/ton [9]. 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 26, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Muchuanzhishi was 22,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 23,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton [13]. 11. Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 26, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in domestic regions ranged from 3,400 yuan/metal ton to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 13. Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2511 on September 26, the total trading volume of members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 202,399 lots, a decrease of 39,621 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 87,482 lots, a decrease of 639 lots, and the total short - position volume was 86,815 lots, a decrease of 5,194 lots [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 80.5% [7]. - The zinc market is currently flat with small price fluctuations. The Fed's rate cut is in line with market expectations. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio has widened losses in refined zinc and imported ore imports, partially offset by an increase in imported ore processing fees [7]. - On the supply side, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased due to profit incentives, leading to increased refined zinc output and accelerated inventory accumulation. Overseas high - cost smelters are facing losses and have cut production, causing a continuous decline in LME inventories. The trend of increasing losses in refined zinc imports reflects the different situations of domestic and overseas smelting [7]. - From a global perspective, the supply of zinc ore is gradually becoming more abundant. Although the transmission from increased ore production to increased smelting output is delayed due to overseas smelter production cuts, the sufficient domestic smelting capacity can digest the increased ore output, ultimately leading to an increase in refined zinc production [7]. - On the demand side, it remains relatively stable, mainly maintaining the existing level. With supply increasing and demand stable, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market [7]. - In the short and medium term, the probability of a significant decline in zinc prices is low. In the long term, the expectation of a shift from balance to oversupply in the zinc market remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out long - term short positions on rallies, and enterprises can purchase as needed for now [7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - Summarized above [7] Part 2: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Output**: In June 2025, global zinc concentrate output was 1.0814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The 2025 international long - term zinc ore TC price was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 3.5033 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. As of September 19, the imported ore processing fee was reported at $111.25/ton, and the domestic ore processing fee was reported at 3850 yuan/ton, showing a divergence between the two [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: The profit of domestic ore smelting remains good, while imported ore has turned into a loss due to the internal - external price ratio issue [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In June 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.22%. In August 2025, domestic refined zinc output was 624,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 222,400 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part 3: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Refined Zinc Initial - stage Consumption**: In July 2025, domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.44%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventory in the industrial chain [25]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has stabilized at a low level, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [27]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: In August 2025, domestic automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. With consumer loan interest subsidies and the release of a new round of national subsidy funds, household appliance consumption is expected to maintain its resilience [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Inventory shows an increase domestically and a decrease overseas. As domestic smelters continue to increase output, the trend of inventory accumulation in social warehouses will continue [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of September 19, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a premium of $50.91/ton. With a significant increase in social inventory, the domestic spot premium is low [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of September 12, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 28,762 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently stabilized [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that on the supply side, zinc ore imports at home and abroad have increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and the price of sulfuric acid has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, supply growth has accelerated. Currently, import losses continue to widen, leading to a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. - On the demand side, the downstream is at the end of the off - season. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not significant, and the operating rate of processing enterprises shows a stable upward trend. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, and downstream buyers maintain on - demand procurement, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium remains low. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting zinc prices. - Technically, positions are stable while prices are rising, with a cautious bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support at the 22,200 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now or go long lightly on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 20,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,956 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 221,751 lots, a decrease of 1,484 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 7,939 lots, a decrease of 47 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 51,371 tons, an increase of 5,466 tons. - The SHFE inventory is 94,649 tons, an increase of 7,617 tons; the LME inventory is 50,525 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 22,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the main ZN contract is - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 30.17 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.67 US dollars/ton. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons. According to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - ILZSG's global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. Refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 144,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters. - The monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, a decrease of 298,600 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.33%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.34%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.3%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.05%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, new RMB loans were 59 billion yuan, 31 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The incremental social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in August was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year, and another three times in 2026. According to FedWatch, there is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a very small possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic refined zinc supply growth has accelerated due to the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, the significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, the repair of smelter profits, the release of new production capacity, and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacity. The import loss continues to expand, leading to a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. The overall transaction remains dull, and domestic social inventories continue to increase while the spot premium falls. The significant decline in overseas LME inventories has led to a strong LME zinc price, which in turn drives up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,848 dollars/ton, an increase of 40 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 213,489 lots, an increase of 1,999 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 9,902 lots, an increase of 823 lots. The Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 16,192 tons, an increase of 424 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, an increase of 4,193 tons, and the LME inventory is 79,550 tons, a decrease of 875 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 4.76 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.18 dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 91,200 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, an increase of 166,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.01%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.01%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.69%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.21%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points [3]. Industry News - The three departments announced that for single - transaction consumption of over 50,000 yuan, interest subsidies will be provided up to a consumption limit of 50,000 yuan. The subsidy scope includes consumption below 50,000 yuan and consumption in key areas such as household cars, elderly care and child - bearing, education and training, cultural tourism, home improvement, electronic products, and health care. The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks joint statement announced that the 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. In July, the overall US CPI data was mild, and traders significantly increased their expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with the current probability as high as 95% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Short - and medium - term strategy: The anti - involution trading is over, and the market returns to the fundamental reality. The expectation that zinc will shift from balance to surplus remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out short positions on rallies [6]. - Macro aspect: As of August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 9.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 90.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 4.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 46.5% [7]. - Fundamental aspect: Last week, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market eased, and zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Inventory showed a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventories continued to decline while domestic inventories continued to accumulate, which is the result of the geographical differentiation of refined zinc output. Overseas smelters face high costs. With the long - term treatment charge (TC) at a record low, high - cost overseas smelters are under great loss pressure, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization and production cuts. In contrast, domestic smelters have low costs and currently enjoy good smelting profits from both long - term and spot TCs. As a result, domestic smelting output has increased significantly, with the output in July having a year - on - year growth rate of over 20%. The trend of an expanding import loss of refined zinc also reflects the different situations of smelting at home and abroad. It is expected that the import loss will continue to widen, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the refined zinc export window opening. From a global perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore has gradually become looser, and the increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. Although the transmission from mine - end production increase to smelting output expansion has been delayed due to production cuts by overseas smelters, considering the sufficient existing and new smelting capacities in China, which can absorb the incremental output from the mine end, the increase in global zinc ore output will ultimately translate into an increase in refined zinc production. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden concern of a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the current level. Whether the demand is estimated to be relatively optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, which will put downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part I: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate Output - In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% [8]. - The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80 per ton, the lowest in history and halved compared to the previous year. High - cost overseas smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was severely overestimated, and the trend of a marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed as shown by the change in spot TC [8]. 2.2 Zinc Concentrate Import Volume and Treatment Charge - From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate in China was 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports has boosted the TC [11]. - As of August 8, according to SMM, the TC for imported zinc concentrate was reported at $82.3 per ton, and the TC for domestic zinc concentrate was reported at 3,900 yuan per ton. Both domestic and imported ore TCs have been raised several times recently [11]. 2.3 Smelter Profit Estimation - As the TC has been continuously raised, the smelter's profit has been continuously improved [14]. 2.4 Refined Zinc Output - In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18% [18]. - In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc output was 601,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. As the profit recovers, the output is gradually increasing [18]. 2.5 Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 180,000 tons [20]. - The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part II: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side 3.1 Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.31% [25]. - The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. 3.2 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) slowed down [27]. - The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction starts and construction were still weak [27]. 3.3 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic automobile output was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% [30]. - In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted in stages, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. Part III: Other Indicators 4.1 Inventory - During the off - season, the social inventory of zinc has been continuously accumulating. With the continuous increase in domestic smelter output, the trend of social inventory accumulation will continue [32]. 4.2 Spot Premium or Discount - As of August 8, the LME 0 - 3 premium or discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.23 per ton [35]. - With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium has declined [35]. 4.3 Exchange Position - As of August 1, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 25,513 lots [38]. - The weighted position volume of SHFE zinc has declined recently [38].