Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: As of July 14, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 6.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 59.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 36.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.1% [5]. - Fundamentals: Driven by anti - involution and meeting expectations, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, and zinc prices have rebounded and then fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the increasing production situation at the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [5]. - Strategy: In the short and medium term, the short - term sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, but there seems to be no clear expectation that can reverse the supply - demand situation, and it has little to do with the fundamentals of zinc. Consider laying out short positions in SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - The macro situation shows different probabilities of the Fed's interest rate decisions in July and September. The fundamentals indicate a shift in the zinc supply - demand balance towards surplus, and the strategy suggests shorting SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Part 2: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and it was halved compared to the previous year. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of a marginally looser zinc ore supply remains unchanged [7]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports has boosted processing fees. As of July 11, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $66.48/ton, and that for domestic ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton, with both having been raised several times recently [9]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits have been continuously improved [12]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [16]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [19]. Part 3: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [24]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [26]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be noted [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: As the off - season approaches, social inventories of zinc have slightly increased [31]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of July 11, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.36/ton. As the off - season approaches, the domestic spot premium has declined [34]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of July 4, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 20,595 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently declined [37].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. On the supply - side, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the processing fee of zinc ore has continued to rise, and the smelter's profit has been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand - side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Domestic social inventory has increased slightly, but the rising LME zinc premium and declining overseas inventory have driven up the domestic price. Technically, with reduced positions and cautious trading from both long and short sides, there is support at the 22,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,719 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 250,347 lots, down 3,271 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,212 lots, up 8,912 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 8,950 tons, up 1,001 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons, up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 108,500 tons, down 2,100 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,160 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.88 US dollars/ton, up 12.17 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 69,800 tons, up 6,200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.99%, down 0.11%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.99%, down 0.1%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.59%, up 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 14.46%, down 0.5% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1st, and mentioned that the tariff for some tax notices might be 60% or 70%. The US is dissatisfied with the EU's taxation and fines on US technology companies and may issue a tax notice to the EU. The Fed reported that the one - year inflation expectation in the US dropped to a five - month low in June, and concerns about layoffs eased. The China Passenger Car Association reported that China's passenger car retail sales in June reached a new high for the month, with new - energy vehicle retail sales up 29.7% year - on - year [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro aspect**: On July 3rd, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with an expected increase of 110,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, expected to be 4.3%. After the release of non - farm data, the probability of a Fed rate cut in July dropped to single - digits [6]. - **Fundamental aspect**: The non - ferrous sector remained relatively strong. Last week, the zinc price fluctuated above 22,000. Processing fees continued to rise, and domestic smelter output was expected to increase. The supply of zinc ore was becoming more abundant cyclically. In 2025, several major zinc mines planned to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in the mine end was transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelter operating rates increased, and maintenance was postponed. Refined zinc output gradually recovered, and this trend was expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes might drag down the global economic growth rate, and there were concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if new trade agreements were quickly reached and the global economic growth rate remained resilient, there was no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, mainly maintaining the status quo. Whether the demand was estimated optimistically or pessimistically, the zinc supply - demand balance tended to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [6]. - **Strategy aspect**: In the short and medium term, the rebound of the zinc price was mainly driven by the overall sentiment of the sector and commodities, with little change in its own fundamentals. The recent strength of non - ferrous metals was mainly due to regional premiums caused by tariffs, not an indication of the strengthening of the global manufacturing industry. Therefore, the sustainability of the zinc price rebound was expected to be limited, and it was advisable to consider shorting at high prices [6]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc concentrate output**: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history and half of the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters might face operational pressure. However, the long - term contract TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of looser zinc ore supply remained unchanged [8]. - **Zinc concentrate imports and processing fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports boosted the processing fees. As of July 4th, the processing fee for imported zinc ore was reported at $66.25/ton, and that for domestic zinc ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees had been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter profit estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits had been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined zinc output**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc output was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recovered, output was gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined zinc import profit and import volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The refined zinc import window was currently closed [21]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial consumption of refined zinc**: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [26]. - **Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 1**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction remained weak [28]. - **Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 2**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [31]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: As the off - season approached, social inventories of zinc increased slightly [33]. - **Spot premium/discount**: As of July 4th, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $21.64/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium declined [36]. - **Exchange positions**: As of June 27th, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 17,814 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: The Fed's new economic forecast predicts slower economic growth and rising inflation, but policymakers still expect rate cuts later this year. There are significant differences in opinions among officials, with 7 believing no rate cuts are needed, 8 expecting two cuts, 2 predicting one cut, and 2 forecasting three cuts. Fed officials Waller and Barkin have different views on the timing of rate cuts [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Overseas geopolitical situations had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, with dull spot transactions and stable social inventories. On the supply side, the periodic supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc mine projects at home and abroad plan to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the marginal TC of zinc ore spot. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased, and refined zinc production has recovered marginally. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down global economic growth, and there are concerns about a contraction in zinc demand. Whether the demand outlook is optimistic or pessimistic, there is a tendency of oversupply in the zinc market, putting downward pressure on long - term zinc prices [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to low social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. It is advisable to consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 is set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. As of June 20, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $55.27/ton, and that for domestic ore was 3,600 yuan/ton, both having been raised recently [10]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelters' profits have been continuously improved [13]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc production was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be monitored [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Downstream buyers over - purchased and replenished stocks at low prices, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of June 20, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $24.65/ton. Due to low social inventories, the spot premium is relatively high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 13, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 4,817 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down due to the large amount of low - price purchases by enterprises in the early stage. The domestic social inventory has rebounded, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - side is strong at the high position of positions. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [3][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 21,905 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 135 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,660 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 280,455 lots, down 13,538 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 791 lots, up 1,952 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 9,788 tons, down 178 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,466 tons, down 1,546 tons; the LME inventory is 130,225 tons, down 775 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,010 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,690 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 24.57 dollars/ton, down 1.62 dollars; the factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 57,100 tons, up 800 tons; the monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the housing completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters; the automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 18.43%, up 2.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 18.43%, up 2.38 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.22%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.16%, down 0.3 percentage points [3] Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; the housing construction area was 6.2502 trillion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; the new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 353.15 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 340.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%; at the end of May, the unsold commercial housing area was 774.27 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.15 million square meters. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. In the first five months, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year. Iran hopes to dialogue with the US and Israel to end the hostility, weakening the market risk - aversion sentiment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: As of the end of May, China's broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. In the first five months, net cash investment was 30.64 billion yuan [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical events had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of social inventories. In terms of fundamentals, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous marginal strengthening of zinc ore spot TC. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the production increase situation in the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden worry of contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to the low level of social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting the near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. In terms of strategy, short positions can still be considered for far - month contracts when prices are high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In March 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. The international long - term TC price of zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared with the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was seriously overestimated, and the trend of marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to April, China's cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 1.7137 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.5%. The increase in imported ore volume boosted the processing fees. As of June 13, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $53/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,600 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In March 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1219 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc output was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, output is gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to April 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 120,000 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: At low prices, downstream enterprises made excessive purchases to replenish inventories, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of June 13, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount of zinc was reported at a discount of $22.95/ton. Due to the low level of social inventories, the spot premium was high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 6, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 11,086 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-06-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22085 | -55 07-08月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 255 | 20 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2651 | -7.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 277184 | 1524 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 3245 | -2593 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 5133 | 2058 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 47012 | 4702 LME库存(日,吨) | 132025 | -550 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22310 | 10 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22400 | 0 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 225 | 65 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -32.08 | 0.97 | | | 昆 ...

第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 宏观：5月12日讯，5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。中方代表团在新闻发布会上表示，双方就彼此关心的经贸问 题开展了深入交流。会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机 制，明确双方牵头人，就各自关切的经贸问题开展进一步的磋商。中美双方将尽快敲定有关的细节，并且将于5月12日发布会谈达成的联合 声明。 核心观点 基本面：主要经济体与美国开始有不同程度的贸易谈判接洽，国内出台多项货币、财政刺激措施，宏观氛围趋于缓和，锌价延续震荡整理。 从大的基本面格局看，供给端锌矿周期性供给转宽正在落地，2025年内外几个大的锌矿项目均有增产安排，全球锌矿产量回升带动锌矿现货 TC边际持续走强。矿端增产传导至冶炼端，在冶炼利润回暖之下，国内炼厂开工率提升，延期检修，精炼锌产量边际恢复，且预计矿端和冶 炼端的增产形势会延续下去。需求一侧，贸易争端可能拖累全球经济增速，锌需求总量存收缩隐忧，即使各国快速达成新的贸易协议，全球 经济增速维持韧性，锌的总需求也难有增量预期，维持存量为主。无论对需求是偏乐 ...

沪锌：库存快速去化，现货有所支撑 研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 目 录 第一部分：核心观点 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 核心观点 全球锌精矿产量 万吨 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 锌矿加工费-年度国际长协基准价 $300 $194 $250 $229 $191 $210 $223 $245 $203 $172 $147 $245 $300 $159 $230 $274 $165 $80 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 产业基本面-供给端 2.2 锌精矿进口量及加工费 ◆ 国内1-3月累计进口锌精矿121.77万实物吨，同比增加36.64%，进口矿进口量环比回升，助推加工费上调。 ◆ 截止4月25日，根据SMM，进口矿加工费报40美元/吨，国产矿加工费报3450元/吨，国产、进 ...