Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term but have limited downside potential as they are already at a low level. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are unlikely to show an upward trend in the short - term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price also remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.61% to 7,470 yuan/ton. The basis (East China 553 - futures main) decreased by 45 yuan to 630 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. Social ordinary warehouses had 13.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons, and social delivery warehouses had 42.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, some northern silicon enterprises reduced production due to cost - price inversion, and southwest producers were hesitant to resume production. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices but faced weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1]. Polysilicon - **Prices**: N - type dense material dropped 2.90% to 33.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feed material fell 3.08% to 31.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material decreased 4.76% to 30.0 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material declined 3.39% to 28.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closing price dropped 1.95% to 32,720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side, silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, but some may add new capacity, with an expected slight increase in output. Demand - side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. Other Related Products - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: N - type 210mm decreased 0.79% to 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210R dropped 0.94% to 1.05 yuan/piece, N - type 183mm fell 1.10% to 0.90 yuan/piece, while P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm remained unchanged [1]. - **Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC cells M10 - 182mm remained at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided 182mm, single - sided 210mm, double - sided 182mm, double - sided 210mm) remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: DMC dropped 1.41% to 10,500 yuan/ton, 107 glue decreased 0.42% to 11,800 yuan/ton, and silicone oil fell 0.37% to 13,600 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association's meeting this week focused on "production limitation to maintain prices." Photovoltaic enterprises are expected to cut production more significantly in the third quarter, with the开工 rate expected to drop by 10% - 15%. A strict policy against "below - cost sales" will be implemented, and product sales with sub - standard quality will be rectified [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of domestic and international futures, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, and the performance of various financial markets. It also outlines upcoming economic data releases and events, highlighting the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial landscape, especially under the influence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and central bank policies [2][3][6]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: PTA and PX rose over 3%, SC crude oil, fuel oil, etc. rose over 2%;沪锡,烧碱,沪银 fell over 1% [2] - International oil prices: WTI crude oil rose 0.52% to $73.88/barrel, Brent crude oil rose 2.66% to $78.74/barrel [3] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures fell 0.61% to $3387.4/ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.5% to $36.36/ounce [4] - London base metals: Most fell, LME aluminum fell 0.84%, LME tin fell 0.79%, LME copper fell 0.37%, LME zinc rose 0.38% [4] Important Information Macro Information - Geopolitical events: China called for a cease - fire in the Middle East conflict; the Iranian reactor was attacked; Iran responded to US threat; Trump criticized Powell; EU may accept 10% "reciprocal" tariff; Zelensky was ready to meet Putin; Israel aimed to eliminate Khamenei [6][7][8] Energy and Chemical Futures - Inventory changes: Glass inventory rose 0.29% to 6988.7 million heavy boxes; paper pulp inventory rose 1.1% to 220.8 million tons; Singapore fuel oil inventory fell to a 5 - week low; domestic soda ash inventory rose 2.40%; East China methanol inventory fell 2.71 million tons [12][13][14] Metal Futures - Lithium carbonate auction: 300 tons each of Ronghui and Yongshan lithium carbonate were auctioned at 59910 yuan/ton and 60010 yuan/ton respectively [16] - Photovoltaic industry: Planned to cut production by 10% - 15% in Q3 and implement strict price - protection policies [18] Black - Series Futures - Silicon manganese pricing: HeSteel Group set the June silicon manganese price at 5650 yuan/ton [21] - Steel product data: Rebar production increased 2.22%, factory inventory decreased for the fourth week, social inventory decreased for the fifteenth week, and apparent demand decreased for the third week [21] Agricultural Futures - Sugar export: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the waiting sugar volume decreased to 285.39 million tons [24] - Pig data: The average live - weight of national outer - ternary pigs decreased to 123.78 kg, a 3 - month low [25] - Canadian rapeseed: Export volume decreased 17.05% to 13.14 million tons in the week ending June 15 [25] Financial Markets Financial - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks: A - shares fell, with over 4600 stocks declining; Hong Kong stocks also fell, and Southbound funds had net purchases of HK$1427 million [27] - ESG action: The Shanghai Stock Exchange launched a special action plan to improve ESG ratings of listed companies [29] - IPO situation: There were over 160 companies queuing for IPO in Hong Kong, and 40+ filed in May [29] Industry - New energy vehicles: Three departments studied new energy vehicle safety management, emphasizing no "involution" competition [30] - Photovoltaic industry: Planned for deeper production cuts in Q3 and implemented strict price - protection policies [30] - Real estate: Guangzhou continued to purchase existing housing as resettlement housing; Xi'an introduced new housing policies [32] Overseas - US politics and economy: Trump criticized Powell; the US Senate postponed sanctions on Russia; Zelensky wanted to meet Putin; multiple central banks adjusted interest rates [33][34][36] - Trade issues: The EU tried to reach a trade deal with the US; Canada planned tariff measures [36] - Global investment: Global FDI decreased 11% in 2024, with Europe down 58%; Asia attracted $605 billion [37] International Stock Markets - US stocks: Closed on June 19 for Juneteenth [41] - European stocks: Fell due to Middle East geopolitical risks and Fed policies [41] - US retail investors: Bullish sentiment decreased, and bearish sentiment increased [41] Commodities - Crude oil: International oil prices rose, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $8/barrel in Brent crude [44] - Precious metals: International precious metals futures fell, affected by Fed policies [44] - Base metals: Most London base metals fell, influenced by supply - demand and Fed policies [45] Bonds - Domestic bonds: Yields of domestic inter - bank bonds mostly rose, and bond ETF support measures were studied [46][48] - International bonds: European bond yields rose due to geopolitical risks and market sentiment [48] Foreign Exchange - Hong Kong dollar: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority warned of potential weakening of the Hong Kong dollar [49] - RMB: The RMB's global payment share decreased in May; on - shore and off - shore RMB had different performances [50][52] - US dollar: The US dollar index fluctuated, affected by Fed policies and market sentiment [52] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data: Include UK consumer confidence, Japanese CPI, Chinese LPR, etc. [55] - Events: Include Japanese and Chinese central bank operations, speeches by central bank governors, etc. [57]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering military action against Iran, with President Trump expected to make a decision within two weeks [2] - Trump has extended the deadline for the TikTok sale or ban by an additional 90 days [3] - SpaceX reported an explosion during a static fire test of its Starship, with initial analysis suggesting a potential failure of the Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV) [4] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of maintaining close communication with the EU regarding trade relations, despite recent tensions [5] - The Ministry of Education is pushing for policies to create more job opportunities for college graduates, focusing on market-oriented and socialized job growth [6] - A video conference was held to enhance safety management in the new energy vehicle sector, emphasizing the responsibility of manufacturers for product quality [7] Group 3 - The Financial Regulatory Authority has issued guidelines to insurance companies to ensure sustainable management of dividend insurance products, discouraging excessive competition [8] - The Chinese government has allocated a total of 300 billion yuan for consumer subsidies, with 162 billion yuan already distributed, and July is expected to be a key month for further allocations [9] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is expected to implement stricter production cuts in the third quarter, with operating rates projected to decrease by 10-15% [10] Group 4 - New mandatory national standards for motorcycles have been approved, focusing on fuel tanks and lighting, set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [11] - The summer box office for 2025 has already surpassed 1 billion yuan, with several films leading the ticket sales [12] - Shanghai's recent land auction raised 19.157 billion yuan from the sale of five residential plots, with a record price per square meter in Yangpu District [13] Group 5 - Various communities in Guangdong are implementing incentives for childbirth, with rewards for families having multiple children [14] - The U.S. Senate has postponed discussions on new sanctions against Russia, amid a backdrop of improving U.S.-Russia relations [15] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed readiness for high-level talks with Russia, indicating a desire to resolve the conflict during Trump's presidency [16][17] Group 6 - Labubu's second-hand market prices have dropped significantly following a restock, indicating a shift in consumer availability [18] - OpenAI's CEO revealed that Meta attempted to recruit AI talent with offers exceeding 100 million dollars, but faced rejections [18] - Institutional investors showed significant buying activity in 16 stocks, with notable net purchases in Kexin Co., Xiexin Energy, and Bangji Technology [19][20][21]

Group 1: New Energy Vehicles and Safety Management - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments held a video conference to strengthen safety management in the new energy vehicle sector, emphasizing the responsibility of vehicle and battery manufacturers for product quality and safety [2][2][2] - Companies are required to prevent exaggerated and false advertising, avoid "involution-style" competition, and ensure product quality is not compromised for short-term cost reductions [2][2][2] Group 2: Financing and Investment - Yushu Technology has completed its Series C financing round, with a pre-investment valuation exceeding 10 billion yuan, led by funds from China Mobile and Tencent among others [2][2] - Three Flowers Intelligent Control announced the final price for its H-share issuance at 22.53 HKD per share, with the shares expected to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 23, 2025 [3][3] Group 3: Industry Regulations and Compliance - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China is committed to maintaining the stability and security of global supply chains, expediting the review of rare earth export license applications [2][2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association discussed "production limits to maintain prices," indicating a 10%-15% reduction in operating rates for the third quarter and strict controls on below-cost sales [2][2] Group 4: Corporate Announcements - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of 27.673 yuan per share for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling 34.671 billion yuan for all shareholders, with the record date set for June 25 and payment date on June 26 [2][2] - Ningde Times plans to use up to 4.5 billion yuan of idle fundraising for cash management [7][7]

Group 1 - U.S. officials are preparing for a potential attack on Iran, with reports suggesting it could occur over the weekend [1] - The release of a video by Iranian media showing nuclear capabilities has heightened global attention [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a hawkish stance, stating that interest rate adjustments will not occur until inflation shows a clear decline [1] Group 2 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.79%, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index down by 1.21% and 1.36% respectively [1] - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 12,506 billion yuan, an increase of 596 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The median decline of individual stocks was 1.89%, marking a notable adjustment in market sentiment [2] Group 3 - The micro-cap stock index has seen a continuous decline for three days, dropping below the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, with a decline of 2.27% today [1] - Recent market trends indicate a cooling sentiment, particularly in previously hot sectors such as innovative drugs, controllable nuclear fusion, and new consumption [2] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector has also faced significant adjustments, with the oil and gas sector showing increased trading volume [2] Group 4 - Foxconn is expected to begin production of the "foldable iPhone" by the end of Q3 or early Q4 of 2025, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo [3] - The foldable smartphone hinges are critical for enhancing thinness and visual effects, with domestic suppliers likely to increase market penetration as costs decrease [3] - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the beverage sector, predicting long-term sales growth and profit support through 2025 [4] Group 5 - The 2025 World Robot Conference is scheduled to take place in Beijing from August 8 to 12, alongside the World Robot Competition [5] - Saint Noble Bio expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 254% to 332% for the first half of the year [6] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is anticipated to see a significant production cut in Q3, with operational rates expected to decrease by 10% to 15% [6]

Domestic News - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a document to life insurance companies, stating that the level of dividends for participating insurance must not engage in "involution" competition, requiring companies to justify the necessity, rationality, and sustainability of proposed dividend levels [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association indicated that the industry will face greater production cuts in Q3, with operating rates expected to decrease by 10%-15% compared to the previous quarter. A special audit team will investigate low-cost sales practices, and companies found violating regulations will face various measures [2] - The Beijing Municipal Committee of Propaganda and other departments issued a notice to promote the high-quality development of the gaming and esports industry, focusing on improving review quality and efficiency, and reducing review cycles for domestic network games [2] International News - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at its current level for the fourth consecutive time, amid unclear impacts of tariffs on inflation, while raising inflation expectations for 2025-2027 [4] - Russian President Putin announced that negotiation teams from Russia and Ukraine are preparing for talks after June 22, aiming to find a long-term solution to the Ukraine crisis [4] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.79% to 3362.11, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.21% to 10051.97. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.99% to 23237.74 [6]

光伏第三季度将迎来更大力度减产，预计开工比例将环比降低10%-15%左右。 光伏"反内卷"路径越发清晰。 减产效果不理想，使得当前光伏产业链价格弱势运行，6月16日以来的这一周，价格仍出现小幅下跌。 InfoLink6月19日上午发布的光伏产业链价格周评认为，由于市场需求走弱，产业链各环节价格承压持 续。其中，183N硅片价格本周的成交价已逐步下探至0.9至0.91元区间，市场报价亦向0.9元以下靠拢， 并出现0.88元的报价。183N、210N电池片本周均价下滑至每瓦0.24 元与0.255元。 对于组件价格僵持，Infolink认为，近期需要注意海外退货以及组件库存水平攀高之下影响，部分现货 价格有低价出清的迹象。 中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会（下称"硅业分会"）数据显示，本周光伏展后多晶硅签单数量较少，价 格再度下滑。具体来看，一线大厂在目前下游要价极低的情况下接近无法成交，其余企业价格松动较为 严重。 第一财经从知情人士处获悉，中国光伏行业协会本周召开的会议主题，仍是关于"限产保价"。知情人士 称，光伏三季度将迎来更大力度减产，预计开工比例将环比降低10%-15%左右。 同时，针对"低于成本销售"的严 ...

Group 1 - OPEC has agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, which adds downward pressure on already low international oil prices [1] - The increase in production is seen as a move to improve compliance with production cut agreements among member countries rather than a significant boost in actual output [1] - The strategy of oil-producing countries appears to be shifting from "production cuts to maintain prices" to "increasing production to capture market share" [1] Group 2 - Current low international oil prices are primarily due to weak demand, which has outpaced the efforts of oil-producing countries to cut production [3] - The U.S. has implemented new tariff policies that have weakened market confidence in economic recovery, leading to declines in commodity prices, including oil [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.03 million barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day, further limiting the potential for oil price recovery [3] Group 3 - Other oil-producing countries, including the U.S., have increased production, with U.S. output reaching a historical high of 13.2 million barrels per day, contributing to a global oversupply of oil [3] - Some OPEC member countries have begun to expand production to capture market share, expressing dissatisfaction with the production cut quotas [3] - OPEC has received further reduction plans from countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan, indicating internal disagreements on whether to maintain increased production [3]