零和博弈
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芯片、机器人、AI眼镜,造车新势力要讲新故事
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-11 11:39
Core Insights - Li Auto has launched its first AI glasses, Livis, marking it as the first automotive company to join the "Hundred Glasses War" [2] - The company aims to become a terminal enterprise in the era of general artificial intelligence, planning to develop more hardware products beyond AI glasses [2] - The competition in the electric vehicle market is intensifying, with companies like Tesla and Xpeng also venturing into robotics and AI technologies [4][10] Industry Trends - The market share of fuel vehicles in China has dropped below 50%, with electric vehicles and fuel vehicles now equally represented in new car sales [5] - Predictions indicate that the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China could exceed 85% in the next three years, with high-end electric vehicles expected to surpass 60% by 2026 [5] - The automotive market is experiencing a "zero-sum game," where the growth of electric vehicles comes at the expense of fuel vehicles, leading to a slowdown in overall sales growth [7] Competitive Landscape - New energy vehicle companies are increasingly resembling traditional automakers, focusing on cost control and profitability amid a competitive landscape [8][10] - Li Auto, Seres, and Leap Motor are among the few new energy vehicle companies that have achieved profitability, while others like Xpeng and NIO aim for quarterly profitability [7][10] - The narrative around "automobiles" is shifting, with companies like Li Auto and Xpeng adopting a more diversified approach similar to Tesla's model [8][11] R&D Investments - R&D investments in artificial intelligence and robotics are becoming crucial for new energy vehicle companies, with Li Auto planning to allocate a significant portion of its R&D budget to AI technologies [20][26] - Tesla's R&D expenditures have been steadily increasing, focusing on AI and robotics, while Xpeng and Li Auto are also ramping up their investments in these areas [21][23][26] - The competitive pressure in the market necessitates that new energy vehicle companies maintain a strong focus on their core automotive sales while gradually increasing their investments in AI and technology [26][27]
【今晚播出】全球秩序重构,如何迎接“亚洲世纪”? | 两说
第一财经· 2025-12-10 06:19
F 第一财经主持 粤凯硕 两说 Business Insights 新加坡驻联合国前大使马凯硕以跨越东西方的独特视角,向我们揭示了一个正在剧变的世界图景: 亚洲世纪即将到来,西方主导的旧秩序正被多元文明共生的新格局所取代。在这场深度对话中,他不仅 剖析了中美战略博弈的本质——一方谋划长远,一方困于短视,更预言了亚洲世纪的真正内涵:这不是 单一国家的崛起,而是整个文明板块的复兴。当人类首次共同置身于"地球方舟"之上,我们能否超越零 和博弈,学会在竞争中共存?这不仅关乎大国角力,更考验着整个人类文明的智慧。一场关于未来世界 秩序的深刻思考,即将展开。 更多精彩内容,敬请关注12月10日周三晚22:30 东方卫视 《两说》节目, 第一财经 12月13日周六晚22:00 播出。 Business Insights 12\10 22:30 12\13 22:00 东方卫视首播 第一财经播出 新加坡驻联合国前大使 《中国的选择》《亚洲的21世纪》作者 ...
美经济学家:美国战略出现了严重误判,根本没想到中国竟如此强大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-30 07:40
有一个许多人意想不到的事实,那就是在中国,一些民间作坊竟然能手工制造出可以飞行的小飞机。普通老百姓都有这个能力,而正规的工厂更是有强大的 制造实力。近年来,美国的经济学家和学者们一直在警告华盛顿的政客们,他们对中国的认知有很大问题。然而,美国的政客们却不愿听从这些意见,仍然 坚持自己的看法。这种固执己见的态度,最终会把美国带向何方呢? 美国曾寄希望于印度,结果却事与愿违。华盛顿的政策制定者们曾根据一个经济学规律,认为随着中国的经济发展,工人工资将会上涨,这会促使许多企业 将工厂迁往工资更低的地方。根据这一推测,制造业肯定会离开中国,而印度则被认为是最理想的目的地——因为印度人口多,工资低,而且讲英语。过去 的十年里,美国媒体不断报道印度经济的火热,声称印度即将成为接班中国的全球工厂。美国的政客们认为,只要中国的制造业流失,那么中国的经济必定 会遭遇困境,综合国力也会下降。 然而,十年过去了,印度交出的成绩单令美国十分尴尬。外国资本没有如预期般涌入,反而开始撤出。近两年,印度的外资净流入甚至变成了负数,意味着 流失的资本远远超过了流入的资本。印度的制造业进展缓慢,依旧只能进行一些基础的组装工作,技术含量较高的产 ...
美媒:过去50年,美国人的“获得感”增加了吗?
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-11-27 22:41
上世纪60年代,美国家庭收入分布呈现中间宽、两头窄的"梭形"结构。但如今,处于收入中间地带的美 国人数量越来越少,富人和穷人的数量均不断攀升。按照现代物价换算,在1967年,年收入超过15万美 元的美国人占比略高于5%,现在这一比例超过30%;超过38%的美国人年收入低于5万美元,现在则降 至21%。 随着越来越多的人涌入"上流社会","梭形"收入分配曲线的"腰部"也在不断变得纤细,顶层人群与其他 群体之间的差距越来越大。"明星经济"也是一个显著特点。一个"明星公司"对高绩效者的奖励远超其他 人,而"明星人才"得到的回报也远高于常人,这位明星可能是知名演员歌手,也可能是高速成长企业中 的精英经理。 半个世纪以来,收入整体增加 美国彭博社 11 月 20 日文章,原题:美国中层正在 " 缩水 " 过去半个世纪以来,美国人从未如现在这般富 裕,收入与财富都实现了惊人增长,即使是较贫困的阶层和中产家庭也不例外。不过,由于更多人跻身 中上阶层,而富人阶级掌握了更多财富,美国的中产阶级不断"缩水",收入不平等的现象日益加剧。好 消息是,美国人的钱包从未如此充实;坏消息是,大多数人并没有盆满钵盈之感。 美国人收入整体增加 ...
英伟达市值一个月内蒸发5万亿元|首席资讯日报
首席商业评论· 2025-11-27 04:12
Group 1: AI Chip Market Dynamics - Nvidia's market value has evaporated by 500 billion yuan within a month due to emerging competition in the AI chip market, particularly from Google's self-developed AI chip, TPU, which is reportedly in talks for external collaborations with major tech companies like Meta [2] - Analysts on Wall Street refute the notion of a "zero-sum game" in the AI chip market, suggesting that companies like Google and Nvidia can coexist and thrive in the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure sector [9] Group 2: Automotive Industry Insights - Li Xiang, CEO of Li Auto, stated that the most valuable robots in the next decade will be cars with autonomous capabilities, envisioning cars as the core form of embodied intelligence [4] - Li Auto reported a quarterly revenue of 27.4 billion yuan for Q3 2025, with a total revenue of 83.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters, and a significant R&D expenditure of 3 billion yuan for the quarter, indicating strong financial health with cash reserves of 98.9 billion yuan [12] Group 3: Corporate Developments - The founder of Hua Yu Hua, Hua Shan, claimed that the restaurant chain Xibei is being manipulated, leading to a public dispute with Luo Yonghao, who demanded an apology from Hua Shan [6][7] - Zhi Yuan's Peng Zhihui has been elected as the chairman of the board for the company, bringing a wealth of experience from previous roles at OPPO and Huawei [8] Group 4: Entertainment Industry Highlights - The animated film "Zootopia 2" has set a record for the highest single-day box office for an imported animated film in China, grossing over 213 million yuan on its opening day, showcasing the strong appeal of established IPs [10]
谷歌(GOOGL.US)将撼动英伟达(NVDA.US)AI芯片王座?华尔街驳斥“零和博弈”短视论 万亿市场容得下更多玩家
智通财经网· 2025-11-26 13:31
Core Viewpoint - The market's reaction to rumors of Meta purchasing Google's TPU has been described as an overreaction, with analysts suggesting that companies like Google and Nvidia can coexist and thrive in the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure market [1][2]. Market Perception Bias - Google DeepMind scientist Amir Yazdan criticized the market's shallow understanding of hardware and demand, emphasizing the strong demand in the AI sector while clarifying he was not involved in TPU design [2]. - Nvidia refuted claims that Google would disrupt its dominance in AI chips, asserting that it remains the only platform capable of running all AI models and supporting full-scenario computing [2][3]. Analyst Opinions - Most Wall Street analysts maintain that Nvidia is the unassailable leader in the AI chip market, with Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya stating that Google's self-developed TPU chips are unlikely to pose a significant competitive threat [3]. - Futurum Group's Daniel Newman highlighted that the debate over GPU vs. TPU reflects a zero-sum mindset, asserting that the AI infrastructure market could reach trillions, allowing companies like Google, Nvidia, and AMD to achieve mutual success [3][4]. - Analysts from Wedbush and Mizuho Securities echoed the sentiment that Nvidia's dominance in AI will not change in the short term, despite the emergence of Google's TPU chips [4][5]. Stock Performance Divergence - Google's stock has surged by 15% since November and 71% year-to-date, making it the best-performing stock among the "seven giants" of 2025, while Nvidia's stock has dropped by 12% this month, with a year-to-date increase of 32% [7]. - Wedbush's Ives noted that the tech sector is experiencing volatility after a period of strong performance, with Nvidia's strong growth data not translating into stock price gains due to concerns over an AI bubble and competition [7][8]. Future Outlook - Ives' team concluded that the ongoing investment by tech giants is crucial for driving the next phase of growth in AI, with Nvidia's strong quarterly performance indicating that this investment trend will continue at least until 2026 [8].
美国以为“卡脖子”的是“稀土”,谁知道是“圣诞节”!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-15 09:43
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of the U.S. striving for independence from China in rare earth production while facing significant supply chain challenges, particularly in consumer goods like Christmas trees, which are heavily reliant on Chinese imports [1][10][24]. Group 1: Rare Earth Industry - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra announced the production of the first domestically made rare earth magnet in 25 years, attributing this achievement to previous government policies aimed at reducing reliance on China [3][12]. - Despite the announcement, the U.S. still lacks the necessary technology and infrastructure for large-scale rare earth production, with 80% of global processing capacity and 90% of magnet production still in China [12][16]. - The U.S. faces a long road ahead to achieve self-sufficiency in rare earths, with significant cost implications, as Chinese rare earth prices are approximately 25% lower [17][24]. Group 2: Consumer Goods and Supply Chain - The U.S. imports 90% of its Christmas goods from China, particularly from Yiwu, which has started redirecting its products to the EU due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [7][10]. - U.S. Christmas tree imports dropped by 58% in August and 70% in September compared to the previous year, leading to skyrocketing prices for consumers [7][10]. - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have significantly increased costs for American consumers, with a Christmas tree that originally cost $1,000 now potentially costing $2,000 [10][19]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The tariffs have resulted in an estimated additional annual expenditure of about $800 per American household due to inflation caused by these trade policies [17][19]. - The article emphasizes that the push for "decoupling" from China has led to unintended consequences, affecting everyday consumers rather than achieving the intended political victories [24][25]. - The U.S. is caught in a structural anxiety, wanting to develop high-end industries while still relying on low-end manufacturing from China, highlighting the complexity of the supply chain dynamics [24][25].
签证大棒可以休矣
Ren Min Ri Bao Hai Wai Ban· 2025-11-14 22:03
Core Viewpoint - The United States is using visa restrictions as a tool to exert political and economic pressure on Central American countries that maintain close relations with China, undermining international law and norms [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Reactions - The U.S. Ambassador to Panama stated that U.S. visas are privileges rather than rights, reflecting a condescending attitude [1]. - Panama's President, Laurentino Cortizo, expressed frustration, stating that U.S. actions contradict his desire for good relations with the U.S. [1]. Group 2: International Law and Sovereignty - The U.S. actions are seen as a violation of international law, particularly the principles outlined in the United Nations Charter, which prohibits interference in the internal affairs of sovereign nations [2][3]. - The U.S. is accused of undermining the principle of sovereign equality among nations by using its power to coerce Central American countries [3][4]. Group 3: China-Central America Relations - China's cooperation with Central American countries has been deepening, leading to various development projects that benefit local populations and contribute to regional stability [4]. - The U.S. is perceived as acting against its own interests by attempting to disrupt beneficial relations between China and Central America, which could help alleviate issues like illegal immigration [4]. Group 4: Historical Context - Historical references highlight past U.S. interventions in Panama, suggesting that current actions are part of a long-standing pattern of U.S. dominance and disregard for local sovereignty [5].
中美刚刚和解,特朗普又开始吹牛:美国实力太强,中国“不敢惹”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 13:59
中美日前达成了"休战一年的贸易协议",中方之所以与美方达成协议完全是为了两国百姓,但特朗普可不这么认为。 据外媒报道,特朗普在接受采访时骄傲的认为:中国之所以休战,是因为美国太强大,究竟是谁给特朗普的自信,他这番言论背后又有什么目的? 特朗普那套"我赢了"的话术,听起来更像是一种心虚的呐喊。因为就在这份协议达成之前,他的后院早已火光冲天。 美国联邦政府刚刚经历了有史以来最长的一次停摆,超过四十天的瘫痪状态,让无数公共服务陷入停滞。这种混乱直接戳破了"让美国再次伟大"的美好愿 景,民众的支持率也随之下滑。 经济上的麻烦更是接踵而至。他引以为傲的关税政策,最终变成了普通家庭账单上不断上涨的数字,消费成本一路飙升。而那些依赖全球供应链的企业,更 是怨声载道,日子过得一天比一天艰难。 更要命的是,他的关税大权甚至在最高法院都面临着合法性的严峻审查。一旦被裁定违宪,政府可能需要退还天文数字般的税款,这将是政治和财政上的双 重灾难。 内外交困之下,急需一个能转移矛盾的"外交突破口"。于是,中美间的这次休战,就被他巧妙地包装成了一场"伟大的外交胜利"。"不是我搞砸了,而是中 国怕我了",这个故事完美地掩盖了国内的烂摊子。 ...