Key Points - The article emphasizes the importance of systematic and practical strategies in investment banking [2] - It discusses the positive economic outlook for early 2026, supported by improved PMI data and increased foreign capital inflow [8][9] - The article highlights the potential for a bull market in 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the manufacturing sector and increased asset allocation towards equities [9] - It identifies key themes for investment in the spring, including AI, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion, as well as the impact of government policies on consumption and investment [9] - The valuation analysis of A-shares shows that various indices are at different historical percentiles, indicating potential investment opportunities in certain sectors [12][13] - The article notes significant adjustments in precious metals due to changes in margin requirements at CME and differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [14] - It discusses the launch of national venture capital guiding funds and the global competition for future industries, including quantum technology and hydrogen energy [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a favorable economic outlook for the spring of 2025, supported by improved PMI data and a lack of significant downward risks, which may lead to a sustained bullish market trend [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The December 2025 PMI showed a seasonal improvement, with production, new orders, and new export orders all significantly better than seasonal averages, attributed to the later timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 and the pre-emptive nature of export orders [2][3]. - The absence of major economic downturn risks creates a continuous window for market performance, particularly as the A-share market is expected to see a positive start to the year [5]. Market Dynamics - Economic and industrial changes are slow variables, while capital supply and demand are fast variables, which will be more pronounced in the spring market. The influx of capital from insurance and foreign investments is anticipated to support the A-share market [5][8]. - The year-end surge in the CSI A500 ETF indicates a stable influx of marginal funds, which is expected to continue into the new year, enhancing market sentiment and broadening the profit-making effect across sectors [5][8]. Investment Opportunities - The spring season is identified as a critical time for potential investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors and cyclical industries, with themes such as AI, commercial aerospace, and robotics gaining traction [9][10]. - The article suggests that the conditions for a comprehensive bull market in 2026 are gradually being established, driven by improvements in the manufacturing sector and increased foreign investment interest [8][9]. Sector Performance - The article highlights the performance of various sectors, noting that defense, machinery, and automotive sectors are showing continued profit expansion, while sectors like consumer goods and real estate are experiencing contraction [13]. - The relative strength of the ChiNext index compared to the CSI 300 indicates a shift in market dynamics, with a focus on high-performing stocks within the growth sectors [12]. ETF Trends - The article provides insights into the performance of various ETFs, noting significant changes in share volumes and price movements, which reflect broader market trends and investor sentiment [14].

新华财经北京1月5日电四大证券报内容精华摘要如下： 中国证券报 ·赋能新质生产力助力长钱长投全链条织密投保"安全网" 2026年资本市场关键制度将持续升级 《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》1月1日起正式施行、修改后的《证券期货行政执法当事人 承诺制度实施规定》2月1日起施行、上市公司董秘监管规则公开征求意见……2026年开年，一系列资本 市场关键制度持续升级，释放出深化改革的强烈信号。市场人士预期，2026年资本市场改革将进一步全 面深化，包括服务发展新质生产力、助力长钱长投、全链条织密投保"安全网"等在内的一系列改革有望 加快推进。 ·基金销售新规六举措切实让利投资者预计每年为投资者节省约300亿元 《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》日前修订发布，自2026年1月1日起正式施行。规定共六章 29条，核心围绕六大举措切实让利投资者，包括合理调降公募基金认（申）购费、销售服务费率水平， 切实降低投资者成本等。在市场人士看来，作为公募基金费率改革"三步走"的收官之策，此次聚焦销售 环节的费率调整，实现全行业销售费用整体降幅达34%，预计每年为投资者节省约300亿元。叠加前两 阶段降费成果，累计年让利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2026, emphasizing the selection of 26 potential stocks across various categories, driven by favorable earnings expectations and market conditions [2][5][11]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a structural bull market in 2026, transitioning from a technology-driven focus to a more balanced growth across sectors [5][6]. - Major indices are projected to see significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to rise by 12% by the end of 2026 [7]. - The overall market sentiment is supported by positive macroeconomic policies, improving fundamentals, and a steady influx of capital [6][9]. Group 2: Earnings Growth - Forecasts indicate that the net profit growth rates for the CSI 300 index are expected to reach 9.18% and 9.23% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, while the ChiNext index is projected to grow by 30.52% and 22.98% [9]. - The profitability of non-financial companies in the A-share market is anticipated to stabilize, driven by rising producer prices [9]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a more optimistic profit growth of 14% and 12% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [9]. Group 3: Selected Potential Stocks - Data Treasure has identified 26 potential stocks for 2026, categorized into six cyclical stocks, five AI technology stocks, five undervalued dividend stocks, five domestic recovery stocks, and five overseas chain stocks [2][11]. - The cyclical stocks are expected to benefit from price increases due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and recovering producer prices [11][13]. - AI technology stocks are selected based on their anticipated strong performance in the TMT sector, with companies like SiTwei-W and Hohhot Information being highlighted [14]. Group 4: Investment Themes - The investment themes for 2026 include AI technology, high-end manufacturing, cyclical recovery, and domestic consumption recovery, with dividend stocks serving as a stable foundation [12][17]. - The focus on dividend stocks is reinforced by their high predicted dividend yields, with companies like Jianghe Group expected to have a dividend yield close to 6% [15]. - The potential stocks exhibit diverse characteristics, balancing growth potential and defensive qualities to navigate market volatility [17].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend driven by earnings in 2026, with a consensus among institutions on a "balanced and strong" market structure, focusing on sectors like AI technology, high-end manufacturing, cyclical stocks, undervalued dividend stocks, and domestic demand recovery [1][21][27] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market in 2025 showed a structural rally, with major indices rising over 18% and 29 out of 31 sectors experiencing gains [1][21] - Institutions predict a shift from a technology-dominated market to a more balanced bull market across various sectors in 2026 [5][27] - Major foreign investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have optimistic projections for the A-share market, with targets for the CSI 300 index set at 5200 points, indicating a 12% increase from 2025 [7][30] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Earnings growth for the CSI 300 index is forecasted at 9.18% and 9.23% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, while the ChiNext index is expected to see growth rates of 30.52% and 22.98% [11][32] - The STAR 50 index is projected to have a remarkable earnings growth of 88.46% in 2026 and 33.54% in 2027 [11][32] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - A total of 26 potential stocks for 2026 have been identified, categorized into cyclical stocks, AI technology stocks, undervalued dividend stocks, domestic recovery stocks, and overseas expansion stocks [1][14] - The cyclical stocks are expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [14][35] - AI technology stocks selected are based on strong future earnings growth predictions, including companies like Siwei Technology and Huahai Qingke [15][36] Group 4: Institutional Sentiment - Institutions are generally optimistic about the A-share market, with many reports indicating a favorable outlook for 2026 [5][27][28] - The average number of rating agencies covering the identified potential stocks is close to 17, indicating strong institutional interest [40][42] - Stocks like Yanjing Beer and Hisense Home Appliances have received attention from over 20 rating agencies, reflecting their attractiveness to institutions [40][42]

2026年26票權力股一览 | 类别 | 代码 | 简称 | 2025年 涨跌幅(%) | 类别 | 代码 | 简称 | 2025年 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 顺周期 | 603993 | 洛阳铝业 | 210.27 | | 601555 | 东吴证券 | 21.31 | | | 603185 | 弘元绿能 | 87.69 | 低估红利 | 600012 | 皖通高速 | -12.90 | | | 002466 | 赣锋锂业 | 67.82 | | 600575 | 淮河能源 | -14.36 | | | 000933 | 神火股份 | 67.37 | | 601155 | 新城控股 | 16.64 | | | 600989 | 宝丰能源 | 21.60 | | 000729 | 燕京啤酒 | -4.52 | | | 002601 | 龙佰集团 | 14.86 | 内部司示 | 600729 | 重庆百货 | -6.77 | | AI科创 | 688615 688120 | 合合信息 英语清材 | 58.74 37 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is recommended to adopt a balanced and growth - oriented style allocation, emphasizing the technology mainline while taking into account pro - cyclical and large - finance sectors. For equity - hybrid funds, emerging technology remains the mainline in 2026, with a focus on the transformation of cyclical and consumer sectors and continued optimism about large - finance. For bond funds, the pressure in the first quarter of 2026 is relatively limited, with a "weak - first - then - strong" rhythm [1][4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review A - Share Market - The A - share market was volatile and structurally differentiated. The petrochemical, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index had an 11 - day consecutive rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 3968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% to 13525.02 points. Among the major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.47%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.12%. The total trading volume of the two A - share markets was 6.33 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by about 163.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the industry aspect, 12 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, and 19 fell. The top - performing industries were petrochemical, national defense and military industry, media, automobile, and machinery and equipment, rising 3.92%, 3.05%, 2.13%, 1.44%, and 1.32% respectively; the bottom - performing industries were public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance, falling 2.72%, 2.26%, 2.18%, 2.06%, and 1.84% respectively [6]. Bond Market - The bond market declined, with both short - and long - term interest rates rising. The central bank's net open - market operation injection of 1.17 trillion yuan to maintain cross - year liquidity was offset by high cross - year capital demand, pushing up capital interest rates. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 5BP to 1.34%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1BP to 1.85%; the 1 - year CDB bond yield rose 2BP to 1.55%, and the 10 - year CDB bond yield rose 2BP to 2%. In the credit bond market, the grade spread widened, and the term spread was differentiated. The AAA - rated corporate bond yield rose 1BP, the AA - rated corporate bond yield rose 2BP, and the urban investment bond yield rose 1BP. The ChinaBond Total Net Price Index fell 0.23%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.31%, the ChinaBond Financial Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.12%, and the ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.04%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.27% [7]. Global Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with oil prices rising and gold prices falling. The US stock market declined due to reduced interest - rate cut expectations and increased concerns about AI valuation bubbles. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.33%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.03%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.52%. European stock markets generally rose, with the French CAC40 Index rising 1.13%, the German DAX Index rising 0.82%, and the British FTSE 100 Index rising 0.82%. The Asia - Pacific markets were also differentiated, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling 0.81%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rising 2.78%, the South Korean Composite Index rising 4.36%, and the Hang Seng Index rising 2.01%. The US Dollar Index rose 0.43%. In the commodity market, global oil prices rose, and the precious metal market experienced a sharp correction after the CME Group raised trading margins, with the precious metal index falling 5.20%, COMEX gold falling 4.63%, and COMEX silver falling 6.39% [8]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - Stock - type funds fell 0.45%, with index stock - type funds falling 0.38% and active stock open - type funds falling 0.76%. Active hybrid open - type funds fell 0.48%. Funds heavily invested in humanoid robots and commercial aerospace sectors performed well. Among index funds, aerospace, robot, and media theme funds were among the top performers [10]. - Bond - type funds fell 0.06%. Partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity allocations in non - ferrous metals, TMT, or military industries performed well. The annualized yield of money market funds was 1.25%. Among QDII funds, equity QDII funds fell 0.68%, with funds heavily invested in Asia - Pacific technology sectors and crude - oil theme funds performing better. QDII bond - type funds rose 0.04%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds fell 3.18%, and commodity - type funds fell 2.76% [10][11][12]. 3. Future Investment Strategies Macroeconomy - The macro policy in 2026 will be more proactive and front - loaded. The new local government debt quota for 2026 has been pre - allocated. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the list of the first - batch of "two major" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and will accelerate the allocation and use of funds. The first - batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds for consumer goods trade - in has been pre - allocated [13]. Stock Market - The Chinese stock market is expected to cross and stabilize at important levels. Emerging technology remains the mainline, and there is a focus on the transformation of cyclical and consumer sectors. Large - finance is still favored. Recommended sectors include technology growth (such as Hong Kong - listed internet, media, computer, and computing power, as well as globally competitive manufacturing going overseas in power equipment and machinery), large - finance (securities and insurance), and pro - cyclical sectors (consumer stocks in food and beverages, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, hotels, and tourism services, as well as cyclical sectors like non - ferrous metals and chemicals) [14][15]. Bond Market - In the first quarter of 2026, the bond market's core concerns are policy expectations and bond issuance rhythm. The government bond issuance progress may be slower than in 2025, with the net financing in the first quarter accounting for about 25% of the whole year. The bond market may be under pressure due to the potential spring rally in the stock market. The probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut is higher than an interest - rate cut. In 2026, there will be new features in the bond market, such as more timely support from MLF, repurchase, and Treasury bond trading, possible lower funds volatility and lower certificate - of - deposit interest rates, a possible change in the bond - market configuration power around the Spring Festival, and a lower and more short - term impact of equity and commodity markets on the bond market, with a possibility of "double - bull" in stocks and bonds [15][16]. Fund Investment - For equity - hybrid funds, a balanced and growth - oriented style allocation is recommended. Long - term attention should be paid to technology - themed funds, and products mainly investing in pro - cyclical and financial sectors should also be considered. For bond funds, given the expected volatility in early 2026, interest - rate bond funds with flexible duration adjustments or products heavily invested in high - liquidity credit bonds are recommended. Money market funds have no trend - based investment opportunities, and gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated for long - term and hedging investments [17]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments Impact of New Fund Fee Regulations on Bond Funds - The new regulations partially exempt the redemption fees of bond funds and index funds. For individual investors holding index funds and bond funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors holding bond funds for more than 30 days, the fund managers can negotiate the redemption fee standards. The transition period for non - compliant existing funds is set at 12 months. Short - term bond funds may face challenges as the exemption threshold for institutional investors is raised, and funds may flow to money market funds or bond ETFs. Bond ETFs may expand in scale but shorten their duration [18][19]. Total Public - Offering Fund Assets Exceed 37 Trillion Yuan - As of the end of November 2025, the total net asset value of public - offering funds in China reached 37.02 trillion yuan for the first time, with continuous growth since the end of April. Compared with the end of October, the scale of bond funds, money market funds, FOF, and other funds increased, while the scale of stock funds and hybrid funds decreased. However, investors' subscriptions for equity - type funds were still active, and equity - type funds were the main focus of public - offering institutions in November [20][21]. New Fund Launches Last Week - A total of 33 new funds were established last week, including 12 passive index funds, 7 enhanced index funds, 6 partial - stock hybrid funds, 3 hybrid bond - type secondary funds, 2 ordinary stock funds, 2 hybrid FOFs, and 1 passive index bond fund. The average subscription period was about 15 days, and the average raised share was 361 million shares, with a total of 11.916 billion shares [22]. Fund Dividends Next Week - There will be 30 fund share ex - rights registrations next week. The most notable is the Zhongjin Shanjiao Group Expressway REIT, which will distribute a dividend of 1.24 yuan per 10 shares [23].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 开年攻势，指数新高 ——A 股 2026 年 1 月观点及配置建议 展望 1 月，A 股延续上行趋势，继续演绎春季攻势的概率较高。基本面在专项 债发行提速、政府投资回暖的推动下呈现边际好转；低基数背景下上市公司年 报业绩预报披露的同比增速有望明显回升；资金面受益于国内资金加仓概率提 升及人民币升值后外资回流，较为充裕。因此，A 股在 1 月继续走震荡向上走 势，创前期新高的概率进一步加大。1 月，围绕业绩披露的博弈情绪将会明显 升温。业绩超预期或者业绩披露后靴子落地的方向值得重点关注。总体来看， 我们依然关注投资驱动顺周期涨价方向，服务业消费和以国产算力为代表的自 主可控领域。 ❑流动性与资金供需：1 月增量资金有望整体保持平稳净流入，外资及险资有望 成为主力增量资金。宏观流动性方面，针对税期和跨年等季节性因素，央行在 月中税期前后及 12 月 18 日重启 14 天期逆回购操作，直接覆盖元旦假期资金 需求，尽管资金价格在年末有所收紧，但与往年相比，今年的波动幅度相对较 小，跨年后 1 月资金价格有望重回宽松。外部流动性方面，2026 年美联储仍 ...

来源：申万宏源 一、25 年12 月PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年12 月PMI、生产、新订 单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与26 年春节较晚，出口订单前置直接相 关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 排除经济下行风险后，一个没有重大下行风险 + 有利因素可期的窗口随之展开。我们继续提示，春季 支撑风险偏好的时间窗口连续：2 月春节前反弹是A 股胜率最高的日历特征之一，同时这也是科技领域 可能兑现重磅催化的窗口。3 月两会可能审议十五五规划正式稿，政策催化可能更加丰富。4 月特朗普 可能访华，中美经贸关系缓和确认期，也是稳定资本市场预期的关键窗口。上证综指连续阳线后，春季 行情仍有纵深。 二、经济和产业是慢变量，资金供需是快变量，这个特征在春季行情中可能更加突出。25年底中证 A500ETF 冲量已进入稳定期，年初增量资金可能是保险开门红 + 年初人民币汇率升值共振外资活跃度 恢复。岁末年初不缺增量资金，A 股开门红可期，赚钱效应可能普遍扩散。板块轮动，主题活跃特征可 能延续。 三、2026 年全面牛条件会逐步完备，这是一个动态发展的过程 ...

证券分析师 博静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 干胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 开门红 申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/29-26/01/04) 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2026年01月04日 相关研究 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善。春节较晚，出口订单前置，支撑岁末年 初经济验证。春季没有下行风险的格局再强化，且有利于行情演绎的窗口连续不断。上 证综指连续阳线后，春季行情仍有纵深。 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年 12 月 PMI、生产、新订单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与 26 年春 节较晚，出口订单前置直接相关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 排除经济下行风 ...