（来源：半两财经） 2月25日，A股三大指数集体收涨，市场呈现放量普涨、结构轮动的鲜明特征。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.72%报4147.23点，深证成指涨1.29%，创业板指涨 1.41%，北证50涨0.77%；沪深京三市成交额达24809亿元，较前一交易日放量2627亿元，超3700只个股上涨，连续两日百股涨停，市场赚钱效应显著回 升。 （全文889字，阅读需要3分钟） 记者｜朱开云 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> （来源：半两财经） 2月25日，A股三大指数集体收涨，市场呈现放量普涨、结构轮动的鲜明特征。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.72%报4147.23点，深证成指涨1.29%，创业板指涨 1.41%，北证50涨0.77%；沪深京三市成交额达24809亿元，较前一交易日放量2627亿元，超3700只个股上涨，连续两日百股涨停，市场赚钱效应显著回 升。 编辑｜宋霞 实习生｜万君好 今日行情核心驱动力来自流动性宽松与资金高低切换。央行MLF加量续作释放充裕流动性，北向资金稳步净流入，为市场提供坚实资金支撑。盘面风格 快速转向顺周期与资源涨价主线，前期高位科技题材出现分化，资金 ...

年初以来，"涨价"成为资本市场上一条最重要的交易线索。并且，涨价已经不再是特定领域的独有现象，几乎各个行业都有涨价资产、都在交易涨价。我 们统计了年初以来涨幅居前的30个概念指数，25个均与涨价相关。并且可以看到，涨价领域正在由有色向油气、化工、建材、科技等更广阔的范围扩散。 一方面，涨价作为反映业绩改善和景气上行的最直接、最显性的信号，交易涨价本质上就是在交易景气。随着今年盈利上升为决定大势和结构的主要矛 盾，一旦涨价线索扩散成为各个行业的共性、成为"景气"的代名词，将会被市场当作全年的一个核心线索去交易。 另一方面，PPI上行对于市场风格的影响不容忽视。涨价作为顺周期景气回升的重要信号，如果今年价格回升能够顺利验证，市场风格扩散至顺周期也将 更加顺畅。 往后看，"涨价"作为"景气"的代名词和决定风格扩散的核心因素，有望成为今年最重要的一条主线，全年对于"涨价"这一逻辑需要充分重视。 图4、季节性来看,一季度通常是易于涨价的时间 · 2026 近3个月价格环比上涨的细分品种比例(2016-2025年均值) 55% 铜四" 125 50% "金九银十" 旺考 45% 40% 35% 30% 04-01 01- ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：尧望后势 年初以来，"涨价"成为资本市场上一条最重要的交易线索。并且，涨价已经不再是特定领域的独有现 象，几乎各个行业都有涨价资产、都在交易涨价。我们统计了年初以来涨幅居前的30个概念指数，25个 均与涨价相关。并且可以看到，涨价领域正在由有色向油气、化工、建材、科技等更广阔的范围扩散。 另一方面，PPI上行对于市场风格的影响不容忽视。涨价作为顺周期景气回升的重要信号，如果今年价 格回升能够顺利验证，市场风格扩散至顺周期也将更加顺畅。 节奏上，3-4月作为全年验证涨价、交易涨价的第一个重要窗口，随着国内涨价线索进一步丰富、更多 领域涨价有望迎来验证，涨价作为当前企业盈利回升和市场风格扩散的重要逻辑，可能会被当成一个核 心线索去轮动、交易。 往后看，"涨价"作为"景气"的代名词和决定风格扩散的核心因素，有望成为今年最重要的一条主线，全 年对于"涨价"这一逻辑需要充分重视。 一方面，涨价作为反映业绩改善和景气上行的最直接、最显性的信号，交易涨价本质上就是在交易景 气。随着今年盈利上升为决定大势和结构的主要矛盾，一旦涨价线索扩散成为各个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the building materials sector in the A-share market is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including macroeconomic policies, gradual improvement in industry fundamentals, and consensus on low-level capital allocation [1][3]. Policy Support - The real estate sector is experiencing a combination of policies aimed at stabilizing expectations, sales, and construction, which have led to increased demand for construction materials such as waterproofing, coatings, pipes, and tiles [3]. - Infrastructure investment continues to support the economy, with local governments accelerating the issuance of special bonds and major projects commencing, leading to a steady recovery in demand for traditional cyclical building materials like cement, glass, and fiberglass [3]. Cost and Profitability - Prices of core raw materials for building materials, such as coal, soda ash, and natural gas, have decreased, effectively lowering production costs and enhancing profit margins for companies [3]. - Ongoing supply-side reforms, including staggered production and capacity regulation, are clearing out outdated capacities, leading to increased industry concentration and improved profitability for leading companies [3]. Future Outlook - The investment opportunities in the building materials sector are clear, driven by both cyclical recovery and growth upgrades, with short-term benefits expected from accelerated construction and demand recovery [4]. - Long-term demand will be supported by urban renewal and the promotion of green and energy-efficient materials, while new materials like fiberglass and advanced composites are expected to grow due to high demand in new energy and AI sectors [4]. - The building materials sector is characterized by low valuations and high dividends, providing room for continued valuation recovery, supported by favorable policies, improving demand, and rising profitability [4]. Investment Strategy - For investors, the building materials ETF (159745) is recommended as an efficient tool for exposure to the sector, tracking the CSI All Share Construction Materials Index and covering a full industry chain [4]. - The ETF allows for easy trading, low fees, and risk diversification, making it suitable for both trend-following and value-oriented investors [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of cyclical sectors such as oil and gas, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, leading to a 3.2% increase in the National Free Cash Flow Index, outperforming major style indices [1] - The index's constituent stocks include notable performers like Silver Nonferrous and Yuntianhua, which hit the daily limit, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China International Marine Containers rose over 7% [1] - The tracking ETF for this index, E Fund (159222), saw a net subscription of 15 million shares during intraday trading, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The National Free Cash Flow Index employs a selection logic centered on free cash flow rates and adjusts its constituents quarterly, maintaining a balanced market capitalization across sectors, focusing on energy, automotive, and industrial materials [1] - According to Wind data, the E Fund ETF (159222) experienced a net inflow of over 600 million yuan in the past month, attracting attention in a volatile market [1] - Since its launch, the product has achieved an excess return of 5.7% compared to the index, ranking first among ETFs tracking the same index, with a tracking error of only 0.07% [1]

2.有色需求层面托底信号明确：贵金属避险需求升温，国际金价突破关键位，港股有色板块假期大涨， 节后A股有色高开，贵金属相关板块领涨，景气度持续上行。 1.石油石化：受益美伊局势动荡和关税政策反复，国际油价连涨、港股石油股假期领涨，节后A股石油 石化板块走强，原油价格走强提供正向支撑。 今天是马年春节回来第一个交易日，在春节期间国外油气、有色金属等行业的带领下，今日A股顺周期 行业延续反弹态势，石油石化和有色等板块表现较好。 【短期重点行业驱动】 【产品定位】中证现金流指数定位于：价值风格中高质量因子+高ROE因子+季度逆向调仓保护下限， 顺周期行业提供弹性。季度调仓，聚焦具备稳定经营性现金流的实体企业，且不包含金融与房地产行 业，整体结构更契合当前科技+周期的市场趋势。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原 则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资人自行负担。基金的过 往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the continuous release of catalysts in the domestic and international technology industries during the Spring Festival, including the showcase of humanoid robots and breakthroughs in domestic AI models [1][3] - The first Tesla Cybercab, designed for autonomous taxi services, has officially rolled off the production line, and OpenAI is nearing completion of a funding round expected to raise over $100 billion, potentially valuing the company at over $850 billion [4][21] - Domestic financial data shows a significant narrowing of the PPI decline in January, with expectations for a positive year-on-year change by the third quarter, while M1 and M2 growth rates have rebounded [7][8] Group 2 - Domestic consumption during the Spring Festival saw strong travel demand and high growth in retail and catering, although box office recovery was relatively weak [9][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of service consumption and technological innovation in the economic work meeting speech by President Xi Jinping, with a focus on supporting sectors like tourism, dining, and healthcare [10] - The report indicates that the market may have entered a configuration phase after short-term volatility, with technology and cyclical sectors expected to be the main investment themes moving forward [30][31]

恭贺新春 2026年既是"十五五"的启幕之年，更是经济转型与制度改革全面发力的关键节点。2026年，经济将步入 非典型"复苏"状态，名义GDP修复过程中带动企业盈利改善；由于供需两端的助力，在行业间、企业间分 化明显，结构性特征依然会非常突出。 "反内卷"与"扩内需"将成为打破循环阻滞的核心抓手。 一方面，政策通过"反内卷"遏制低价竞争，修复 企业受损利润表，推动PPI转正与盈利回升；另一方面，政策突出"投资于人"，依托民生保障改革与服务 业开放，或将持续打开服务消费增长空间。为增强内需动能，财政政策仍将靠前发力，加大化债力度以缓 解对投资资金的"挤出效应"，确保固定资产投资，尤其是设备更新领域及数字基建与能源转型等方向投资 稳步修复，激发经济内生动力。 短期来看，2026年A股有望在"顺周期"新叙事下迎来资金"再平衡"的延续。伴随名义GDP修复与资产回报 率预期改善， 资金有望从低利率、高波动的债市向权益市场流动，推动资产价格重估。 尽管外部贸易形 势仍存在不确定性，但国内政策工具箱储备充足、出口结构持续优化，经济发展仍具韧性。资本市场将不 仅反映经济量的增长，更将定价质的提升与盈利的实质性改善，A股有望在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and is a critical juncture for economic transformation and institutional reform, with a non-typical "recovery" state expected, leading to improved corporate profitability and significant structural differentiation across industries and companies [3] Group 1: Economic Recovery and Policy Measures - The policy focus on "anti-involution" aims to curb low-price competition, restore damaged profit margins, and promote a positive Producer Price Index (PPI) and profit recovery [3] - The emphasis on "investing in people" through social security reforms and service industry openness is expected to continuously unlock growth in service consumption [3] - Fiscal policies will play a crucial role in enhancing domestic demand, with increased efforts to alleviate the "crowding out effect" on investment funds, ensuring steady recovery in fixed asset investments, particularly in equipment upgrades, digital infrastructure, and energy transition [3] Group 2: Capital Market Outlook - In the short term, the A-share market is expected to experience a continuation of capital "rebalancing" under a new "pro-cyclical" narrative, with funds likely flowing from low-yield, high-volatility bond markets to equity markets, driving asset price revaluation [4] - Despite uncertainties in external trade, the domestic policy toolbox remains robust, and the continuous optimization of export structures indicates resilience in economic development [4] - The capital market is anticipated to reflect not only quantitative economic growth but also qualitative improvements in pricing and profitability, with A-shares expected to gradually elevate their central tendency amidst volatility [4] Group 3: Long-term Structural Changes - During the "15th Five-Year Plan," industrial "transformation" and reform "dividends" will be key engines for high-quality development, focusing on breaking institutional bottlenecks and stimulating the vitality of business entities [4] - Key areas for attention in 2026 include the construction of a unified national market, high-level opening-up, accelerated green transformation, social security, and financial system reforms [4] Group 4: Unified Market and Green Transformation - The construction of a unified market involves establishing basic market systems, infrastructure, resource markets, government behavior standards, and market regulation, alongside expanding both domestic and international openness [5] - The acceleration of green transformation will focus on energy-saving and carbon-reduction modifications in traditional high-energy-consuming industries, promoting low-carbon and efficient transitions through technological innovation and capacity replacement [5] - The combination of green transformation and industrial upgrading is expected to enhance the core competitiveness of traditional industries, achieving a dual win of "carbon reduction" and "quality improvement" [5]

Core Viewpoint - The building materials sector is experiencing a strategic configuration window for upward resonance in both prosperity and valuation, driven by the deepening "anti-involution" policies, alleviation of cost pressures, and recovery expectations in the real estate chain [1] Policy and Industry Dynamics - The "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to regulate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The cement industry is transitioning from "capacity replacement" to "actual capacity and registered capacity unification," with actual clinker capacity expected to decrease from 2.1 billion tons to 1.6 billion tons, leading to a 10-15 percentage point increase in capacity utilization [1] - By April 2025, approximately 31.65 million tons of capacity had exited the national cement industry, with a net exit of 12.2 million tons, and capacity clearance is expected to accelerate by 2026 [1] Demand Recovery - A January 2026 article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to "improve and stabilize real estate market expectations," with multiple cities relaxing purchase restrictions, resulting in a 16% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transaction area [1] - Although new housing development is slowing, the demand for renovation, secondary decoration, and old housing transformation is increasing, prompting building material companies to shift from B-end real estate procurement to C-end retail, which offers stable cash flow and high gross margins [1] Performance of Building Materials Index - The CSI All Share Building Materials Index (931009) has shown significant advantages over mainstream broad-based indices like the CSI 300 in terms of industry exposure, cyclical elasticity, valuation cost-effectiveness, and policy sensitivity, especially as the market approaches a cyclical turning point [2] - The building materials index has outperformed the CSI 300 in both the last six months and the past year, benefiting from high beta elasticity during the economic recovery cycle [2] - The building materials index is highly sensitive to industrial policies, with actual clinker capacity reduced from 2.1 billion tons to 1.6 billion tons, while the CSI 300 lacks sufficient cyclical stock representation to reflect this supply-side change [2] Valuation and Dividend Yield - The current price-to-book ratio of the CSI All Share Building Materials Index is only 1.15%, below the 25th percentile of the past decade, with some leading cement companies' price-to-book ratios falling below 0.8, indicating that market valuations may have overly reflected pessimistic expectations [4] - The building materials index has a dividend yield exceeding 4%, significantly higher than the CSI 300's approximately 3%, with leading companies expected to continue increasing their dividend payout ratios as the "stable price and profit" framework takes shape [6] Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Institutional consensus on left-side allocation to the building materials sector is evidenced by a gradual increase in the proportion of active equity funds held in the building materials industry since Q2 2025 [6] - Following late January 2026, there has been a noticeable increase in net inflows into the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, with the fund size tracking this index rising from 1.426 billion at the end of 2025 to 3.151 billion within two months [6] - This transition from active institutional allocation to passive market fund resonance indicates a systemic improvement in the liquidity environment for the sector [6] ETF and Investment Opportunities - The Building Materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, covering leading companies across the entire building materials industry chain, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the sector [8] - The top ten holdings in the ETF include leading companies in various segments, reflecting a high concentration in the industry [10] - The building materials sector is positioned as a core cyclical investment, supported by demand recovery, supply optimization, and profit restoration, making it attractive for investors looking to capitalize on low valuations and high dividends [10]