有人说现在的美国经济就像一辆快下坡的车，"刹车一踩"不是为了停，而是为了不出事。 美东时间 9 月 17晚，美联储宣布年内首次降息25个基点。 这个动作早就在市场预料之中，但鲍威尔在记者会上的一句话，又把整个讨论的重点引向了另一个方向——"这次降息，是风险管理型的，不是刺激经济型 的。" 这意味着就业市场出现了松动，而这次降息，就是在给就业"兜底"。 这次降息发生在美东时间2025年9月17日，也就是美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）召开完会议后。当晚他们宣布：联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%-4.5%下 调到4.00%-4.25%，降息25个基点。 换句话说，美联储目前的操作更像是走钢丝，每一步都走得很小心，既不能让通胀反弹，也不能让就业崩盘。 降息消息一出，市场短暂上涨。摩根大通曾预测，如果美联储"鸽派"降息，标普500指数可能上涨0.5%-1%。但他们也提醒，这可能是"利好出尽"的节点， 月底前可能出现3%-5%的回调。 为什么要特别强调"风险管理"？因为在过去几年美联储的政策大多是为了控制通胀，但这次，他们更担心的是就业市场可能出问题。 数据显示：今年上半年，美国GDP增长率只有1.5%，相比去年的2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating a shift in focus from controlling inflation to stabilizing growth and employment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The rate cut aligns with market expectations and reflects a risk management approach to balance inflation and employment risks [2][4]. - The Fed's decision suggests a growing concern over labor market weakness, with future rate cuts dependent on economic data performance [2][3]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates three rate cuts in 2025 and one in both 2026 and 2027, with some institutions predicting additional cuts in November and December [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Global Implications - Following the rate cut, U.S. equity markets remained stable, indicating that the market had largely priced in the expected cut [6]. - There is an anticipated increase in foreign capital allocation to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by a weaker dollar and global capital rebalancing [6][7]. - Non-U.S. equity markets, particularly in China, Japan, and Europe, are viewed positively as potential investment opportunities [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Future Considerations - The Fed emphasizes that future policy decisions will be data-driven, with ongoing structural tensions between inflation and employment complicating monetary policy [4][5]. - The potential for further dovish rate cuts could lead to a steepening of U.S. Treasury yields, impacting investor expectations for risk premiums [7]. - The overall economic environment post-rate cut may lead to a resurgence in global economic fundamentals, necessitating close monitoring of subsequent developments [6][7].

Group 1: Report Summary - 2025年9月17 - 23日，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中在缅甸南部、柬埔寨西南部等地区，赤道以南高降水量区域主要分布在印尼东南部地区 [6] - 美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00% - 4.25%，为年内首次降息，也是时隔9个月后重启降息 [6] - 日本8月份出口额同比下降0.1%，连续第四个月下滑；进口同比减少5.2%，对美国出口同比下滑13.8%，对美汽车出口同比大降28.4% [6] - 天然橡胶原料端价格小幅分化，延续小幅去库；顺丁橡胶原料丁二烯价格窄幅波动，库存小幅去化；轮胎整体产能利用率小幅回升 [6] - 本周橡胶盘面震荡偏弱，受美联储降息后市场情绪变化影响明显，自身基本面因素对盘面驱动有限，仍在区间内震荡，后续关注天气因素和原料端价格对橡胶的影响 [6] Group 2: Multi - Empty Focus - 多方因素包括短期橡胶原料价格持稳、国庆节前补库需求带动库存去化、轮胎开工率回升 [9] - 空方因素包括未来天气转好割胶上量预期、美联储降息落地市场宽松周期预期降低、半钢胎企业库存去化不畅 [9] Group 3: Data Analysis - 截至9月18日，泰国原料新鲜胶水价格56.3泰铢/公斤，杯胶价格51.05泰铢/公斤，国内云南地区胶水价格为14600元/吨，海南地区胶水价格为13400元/吨，国内产区价格相对平稳，成本端支撑仍存 [10] - 截至2025年9月14日，中国天然橡胶社会库存123.5吨，环比下降2.2万吨，青岛保税区现货库存环比下降6013万吨，青岛一般贸易库存环比增加377吨，预计近期继续降库 [13] - 本周国内丁二烯价格延续小幅震荡，周均价略有下滑，顺丁橡胶理论生产亏损为156.5714元/吨，企业理论生产利润仍旧承压 [14] - 截至9月19日当周，顺丁橡胶厂内库存较上周去库400吨，贸易商库存较上周去库390吨，高顺顺丁橡胶产量较上周减少1510吨 [17] - 截至9月19日当周，全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为66.36%，环比增加0.05%，同比增加6.18%；半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为72.74%，环比增加0.13%，同比减少6.92% [18] - 截至9月11日，“RU - NR”01月合约价差维持震荡，“NR - BR”主力合约价差窄幅区间震荡，橡胶内部供需基本面分化不明显 [20] Group 4: Future Market Judgment - 宏观面，美联储9月议息会议如期降息25bp，市场对未来宽松周期的预期程度降低，盘面宏观交易权重增大 [24] - 基本面，原料价格略显疲软但未形成下跌趋势，成本端支撑仍存，天然橡胶库存继续降库，轮胎产能利用率延续小幅回升 [24] - 综合来看，橡胶盘面受美联储降息后市场情绪影响明显，基本面因素驱动有限，仍在区间内震荡，后续关注天气和原料价格影响 [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating a shift in focus from controlling inflation to stabilizing growth and employment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The rate cut aligns with market expectations and reflects a risk management approach to balance inflation and employment risks, with increasing concerns about job market downturns [2][4]. - Various foreign institutions interpret the rate cut as a sign of the Fed's shift in focus from persistent inflation to labor market weakness, potentially easing concerns about the U.S. interest rate advantage [2][3]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests three rate cuts in 2025 and one in both 2026 and 2027, with some institutions predicting additional cuts in November and December [3][4]. Group 2: Market Implications - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets remained stable, indicating that the market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut [5]. - The outlook for small-cap stocks is optimistic, driven by expectations of further monetary easing from the Fed, with a favorable view on non-U.S. equity markets, particularly in China, Japan, and Europe [6]. - A weaker dollar is expected to facilitate global capital rebalancing, with increased foreign investment demand in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed emphasizes that future policy decisions will be data-dependent, with ongoing structural conflicts between labor markets and inflation complicating future actions [4][6]. - The potential for a dovish rate cut could lead to a steepening of U.S. Treasury yields, while uncertainties regarding tariffs may impact corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector [6].

Group 1 - The weakening of the US dollar has a more significant impact on emerging markets, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks than the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - A soft landing for the US economy would be beneficial for emerging market stocks, while weak economic data could prolong the dollar's weakness and increase demand for currency hedging, providing liquidity support for emerging markets and China (including Hong Kong) by the end of 2025 [1][2] - The Asian market is currently in a "risk-on" atmosphere, with the MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index rising approximately 10% since July, driven by easing geopolitical risks, favorable regional policies, and expectations of a Fed rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut is seen as a risk management measure rather than a response to an economic recession, with significant implications for monetary policy direction, dollar exchange rates, and the relative returns of emerging versus developed market assets [2] - Despite recent market volatility, the Fed's rate cuts and a weaker dollar are expected to continue providing liquidity support for emerging markets and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks until the end of 2025, with a preference for Hong Kong stocks due to anticipated foreign capital inflows [2] - Caution is advised regarding a potential market correction in Q4 2025, which could be triggered by sentiment cooling, slowing economic activity, or renewed geopolitical risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals futures market shows mixed performance, while international precious metals futures are generally rising, indicating varying market sentiments and influences from economic factors [1][3]. Price Movements - As of September 19, the main contract for Shanghai gold is priced at 830.50 CNY per gram, down 0.41%, while Shanghai silver is at 9997.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.93% [1]. - Internationally, COMEX gold is priced at 3686.90 CNY per ounce, up 0.23%, and COMEX silver at 42.50 USD per ounce, up 0.95% [1]. Market Data - Opening prices for September 19 show Shanghai gold at 832.12 CNY, with a high of 833.16 CNY and a low of 826.86 CNY per gram [2]. - Shanghai silver opened at 9910.00 CNY, reaching a high of 10038.00 CNY and a low of 9856.00 CNY per kilogram [2]. - COMEX gold opened at 3677.70 USD, with a high of 3694.10 USD and a low of 3664.40 USD per ounce [2]. - COMEX silver opened at 42.12 USD, peaking at 42.69 USD and dropping to a low of 41.93 USD per ounce [2]. Economic Influences - The overnight market saw a significant rise in the US dollar index, which has short-term implications for gold prices [3]. - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25%, with Chairman Powell indicating a cautious approach to further rate cuts, focusing on employment market risks [3]. - The market anticipates potential further rate cuts later in the year, as indicated by the dot plot [3]. Market Analysis - On September 19, COMEX gold futures fell by 1.07% to 3678.2 USD per ounce, while SHFE gold decreased by 0.71% [4]. - The mixed signals from the Federal Reserve have led to increased market volatility, with a downward trend in US stocks affecting risk appetite and gold prices [4]. - Despite the recent price drop, the dot plot suggests a generally bullish outlook for gold, with attention on whether prices can recover [4].

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 975.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 18, spot gold prices fell for the second consecutive day, reaching a low of $3628.43 per ounce and closing at $3644.27, down $15.52 or 0.42% [5] - Market analysts suggest that gold prices are reacting to the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with prices hovering around the $3650 mark, significantly lower than the record high of $3707 reached after the Fed's policy statement [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data showed a significant drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, which has led to renewed downward pressure on gold prices [6] - Analysts from ANZ Bank believe that gold may perform well at the beginning of the easing cycle, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid complex geopolitical conditions [6] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices break below $3650, the next targets could be the September 11 low of $3613 and the psychological level of $3600 [6][7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, 2025, aligning with market expectations[4] - The median federal funds rate forecast for the end of 2025 was revised down from 3.9% to 3.6%, indicating approximately two more rate cuts expected this year[7] - The decision reflected a cautious approach within the Federal Reserve, with only one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - Powell emphasized a balance between employment and inflation, acknowledging rising unemployment while warning of persistent inflation risks[7] - Following the rate cut announcement, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields initially fell to a new low since April but later rebounded, indicating a hawkish interpretation of Powell's comments[10] - The U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, suggesting ongoing economic resilience[19] Group 3: Risks and Future Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten policies again[24] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on market volatility remain a concern, particularly regarding the Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine conflicts[24] - The rising public debt and its implications for future fiscal policy could pose challenges for economic stability[19]

港股科技聚集了一批中国科技核心资产，被称为"东方硅谷"。港股科技ETF（513020）标的指数（中证 港股通科技指数）中既有年初爆火的互联网，也有新能源车、芯片、生物医药和创新药等，在行业分布 上更加均衡，代表了港股科技资产的整体投资价值。从2018年开始观测可以发现，港股通科技指数长期 跑赢恒生科技指数，港股通互联网指数。或可持续关注港股科技ETF（513020）机会。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证港股通科技ETF发起联接A（015739），国泰中证港股通科技 ETF发起联接C（015740）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 今日，港股科技ETF（513020）盘中涨超1%，近10日净流入超3.2亿元。 相关机构表示，美联储在9月FOMC会议上将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4%~4.25%，并释放出10月极 有可能继续降息 ...

9月18日港股科技ETF（513020）开盘维持震荡，尾盘开始下跌，收跌1.57%。 资料来源：wind 美联储在9月FOMC会议上将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4-4.25%，并释放出10月极有可能继续降息的 信号。最新点阵图显示今年将有三次降息，部分委员因近期劳动力市场疲弱转鸽。且会议声明措辞与鲍 威尔杰等讲话高度一致，强调就业风险上行。鲍威尔将此次降息定位为"风险管理型降息"，历史经验表 明此类"保险型"降息通常连续执行。 由于香港的联系汇率制度及国际金融中心的地位，港股的流动性与美国的货币政策相关性较大。回顾历 史，从1964年以来港股与美股表现出了很强的联动性，恒生指数和标普500相关系数接近95%。而据广 发证券统计，从历史上看非衰退式降息（1995年、2020年、2008年）恒生指数震荡走强，而美联储衰退 式降息（2002年、2008年）之后，恒生指数则是下探三个月左右之后震荡上行。降息重启之后的12个 月，科技行业平均上涨88%。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 | 降息情形 | 重启降名 | 基本材料 | 12 ...