Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high-low sulfur spread is at a historically low level year-on-year. The cracking of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, Singapore residual oil was destocked, the high-sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. Fujeirah's heavy inventory increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons, the high-sulfur floating storage was destocked but still at a historically high level year-on-year. ARA ports were destocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year-on-year. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month-on-month, while the UAE's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The cracking of Singapore fuel oil is still supported by purchasing demand, but it faces downward pressure in the medium term due to factors such as Russian sanctions. FU fluctuated mainly and weakened slightly this week [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed by -1.59; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed by -2.85; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed by 0.66; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed by 16.55; for Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -19.40; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed by 2.23; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed by -1.26 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed by -6.64; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed by -7.64; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed by -1.75; for Singapore GO M1, it changed by 0.63; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed by 0.01; for Singapore VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -6.41 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot and Domestic FU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore FOB 380cst, the price changed by -5.84; for FOB VLSFO, it changed by 1.02; for 380 basis, it changed by 0.45; for high-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.2; for low-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.4. For domestic FU 01, it changed by 28; for FU 05, it changed by 31; for FU 09, it changed by 20; for FU 01 - 05 (not fully available), the change situation is not clear; for FU 05 - 09, it changed by 11; for FU 09 - 01, it changed by -8 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for domestic LU 01, the price changed by 33; for LU 05, it changed by 32; for LU 09, it changed by 37; for LU 01 - 05, it changed by 1; for LU 05 - 09, it changed by -5; for LU 09 - 01, it changed by 4 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, also in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. Crude oil may enter a weakly oscillating phase. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show different supply - demand characteristics in the short and medium terms. Asphalt maintains a tight balance, and liquefied petroleum gas has certain inventory and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation speed has accelerated further, with a 1.5% increase in inventory since the fourth quarter. The mid - term trend of the crude oil market is still under pressure, but the short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may turn to a weakly oscillating state [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term fuel oil prices follow the cost side with a weakly oscillating downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term price support but faces increasing supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil maintains a supply - demand weak situation. Strategies include shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract oscillates narrowly. The weekly asphalt operating rate declines, demand is weaker than expected in October, and the overall commercial inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt market maintains a tight balance and is pressured by the weak cost side [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract continues to oscillate narrowly, with the far - month contract under pressure. Supply increases slightly this week, chemical demand grows, and inventory at refineries and ports decreases. The basis narrows to near the flat - water position [4]

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2618.00 yuan, closing at 2637.00 yuan, down 2.12% [1] - Institutions predict that high-sulfur fuel oil prices will face medium-term pressure, suggesting potential short-selling opportunities [2] - Geopolitical factors, including a potential meeting between Trump and Putin, have influenced the downward trend in fuel oil prices, alongside supply constraints from European port strikes and Russian refinery attacks [2] Group 2 - Short-term expectations indicate that fuel oil prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil, with domestic refinery operating rates declining [3][5] - The overall supply of fuel oil remains relatively ample, leading to a weak short-term outlook for prices [4] - Technical analysis suggests that the main contracts for high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil are expected to operate within bearish ranges [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is under pressure due to the unresolved Sino - US trade game and the expected increase in market looseness in the fourth quarter. However, geopolitical factors may bring risk premiums [1]. - The fuel oil market fluctuates with crude oil due to geopolitical news. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025, and the support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4 [2]. - The LPG main contract has risen, with changes in Saudi CP forecasts, US propane exports, and inventory levels. The demand in the traditional peak season is expected to increase but has not significantly improved yet [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated, and the SC11 contract rose 0.02%. The Sino - US trade game and the expected market looseness in the fourth quarter put pressure on the oil market. Last week, US API crude oil inventories increased by 7.36 million barrels more than expected. The medium - term bearish view on crude oil remains unchanged, but geopolitical factors may increase risk premiums [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple geopolitical news has affected the market, causing fuel oil to fluctuate with crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support from European port strikes and Russian refinery attacks, but faces medium - term pressure due to the end of the Middle East power - generation and refining peak season and potential suppression of shipping fuel demand. Strategies can focus on shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread after geopolitical situations become clear. Low - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, with a weak fundamental situation [1]. Asphalt - The latest data shows that factory and social inventories have decreased compared to the beginning of the week, and commercial inventories have decreased by 40,000 tons compared to last week. The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025. The support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4. The cost increase has driven the BU futures price up, but the spot price is still weak, and the basis has weakened [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 3% today. Saudi's latest November CP forecast has increased the propane and butane prices. US propane exports have decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased. In the traditional peak season, the demand for combustion is expected to increase, but the actual demand has not significantly improved. The futures price has gradually recovered from the low level [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] Core View of the Report - Recently, the fundamentals and market trends of low-sulfur fuel oil are slightly stronger than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, and the high-low sulfur spread is rising, but there is no significant upward space under the current industrial trends [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.99% at 2,917 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.59% at 3,640 yuan/ton [1] - Yesterday, the crude oil price strengthened again, driving up energy commodities including FU and LU, but the oil market still faces the expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium term, and there is still resistance above [1] - The fundamentals of the high-sulfur fuel oil market have been weak recently, the market structure has been continuously adjusted, the crack spread has significantly declined from its high level, the spot supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory level is high. Supply from the Middle East and Russia has increased, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for peak-season purchases by power plants. There are no signs of large-scale improvement in refinery demand. As the East-West spread of high-sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the Asia-Pacific market is expected to receive some support in the short term. Structurally favorable factors have not completely disappeared in the medium term. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant recovery in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [1] - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently. Brazilian shipments to port have increased, and Kuwait's exports have also resumed, but the overall supply increase is limited. In particular, Kuwait's exports are still some distance from their peak. There are no obvious contradictions in the Asia-Pacific spot market. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: Positions in the previous short FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) can be appropriately stopped for profit [3] - Cross-period: Positions in the previous FU reverse spread can be gradually stopped for profit [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market drivers are limited, and the market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan/ton [1]. - Since the OPEC meeting, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent decline in oil prices also indicates that resistance has emerged after continuous rebounds, driving the market down [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to be further adjusted to attract the recovery of refinery demand. After sufficient adjustment, the market will regain support [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently. The strong performance of overseas diesel provides some support, and the domestic production in the first half of the year decreased significantly year - on - year, resulting in limited overall supply pressure. However, the remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry in the long - term will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1]. - Currently, the market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. Group 3: Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3]. - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not rated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - Crude oil: Since May, oil prices have been supported by peak - season procurement expectations. Recently, the upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. In July, the downside risk from the trade war is greater than the upside risk from geopolitical factors, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured state. In August, if the European diesel contradiction remains unresolved, the market may rise again [2] - Fuel oil & low - sulfur fuel oil: After a significant decline in the previous trading day, FU slightly recovered today but remained weak. LU also followed the decline of crude oil. Since July, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels has widened. Under the OPEC+ production increase path, there is an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy resources globally. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel production areas such as Russia and Iran is relatively limited in the short term. The actual increase in feedstock due to the previous pilot of raising the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio in China is limited, and demand lacks a driving force. The FU crack is expected to maintain a downward trend. The unilateral trend of LU mainly follows crude oil, and its crack may turn to a volatile pattern similar to that of overseas diesel [3] - Asphalt: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point compared to the end of June. Overall, the resilience of asphalt supply increase remains to be observed. Demand remains weak but has recovery expectations. Low inventory still provides some support for prices. The unilateral trend mainly follows the direction of crude oil. Before demand improves substantially, the upward drive of BU is limited. Since mid - July, the BU crack has shown a volatile consolidation pattern [4] - LPG: The production increase pressure in the Middle East persists. Although chemical procurement in the Far East has increased, overseas prices continue to be volatile and weak. Recently, the import cost has continued to decline, but the weak terminal product prices have kept the PDH gross margin stable. PDH has added new maintenance. Recently, the domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the domestic gas price is mainly under pressure at the top. Crude oil has declined, and the summer off - season pattern remains unchanged, so the futures market is volatile and weak [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Price trend: Supported by peak - season procurement expectations since May, but the upward drive of strong real - world factors has weakened recently [2] - Risk factors: In July, trade - war downside risk > geopolitical upside risk; August is a critical window for Russia - Ukraine and Iran - nuclear games, and unresolved European diesel contradictions may lead to a market rise [2] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - Market performance: FU slightly recovered but remained weak after a previous decline, LU followed crude oil down, and the high - low sulfur spread widened since July [3] - Supply - demand situation: Under OPEC+ production increase, high - sulfur heavy resource supply may increase; short - term sanctions impact on major production areas is limited; domestic tax deduction pilot has limited feedstock increase effect; demand lacks drive [3] - Crack trend: FU crack expected to decline, LU crack may turn to a volatile pattern [3] Asphalt - Shipment and inventory: Shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly month - on - month, cumulative year - on - year increase decreased; low inventory supports prices [4] - Supply - demand outlook: Supply increase resilience to be observed, demand is weak but has recovery expectations; before demand improvement, upward drive of BU is limited [4] - Crack pattern: Since mid - July, the BU crack has shown a volatile consolidation pattern [4] LPG - Overseas market: Middle East production increase pressure persists, overseas prices are volatile and weak despite increased Far East chemical procurement [5] - Domestic situation: Import cost declined, PDH gross margin stable due to weak terminal prices; PDH added new maintenance, domestic supply and demand are both weak, and domestic gas price is under pressure [5] - Market trend: Crude oil decline and summer off - season lead to a volatile and weak futures market [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking fluctuated, the 380 near-month spread weakened slightly, and the 380 basis strengthened. The low-sulfur cracking fluctuated and strengthened, the spread fluctuated, and the basis strengthened slightly. Singapore's land-based inventory continued to accumulate, ARA's inventory accumulated, and the US residual oil inventory decreased. Singapore's floating storage decreased overall, the high-sulfur floating storage increased, and the low-sulfur floating storage decreased. The floating storage in the Middle East accumulated, and the high-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. The high-sulfur floating storage in Fujairah increased significantly. The floating storage in Europe fluctuated, and the high-sulfur floating storage decreased slightly. The floating storage in the US decreased. Recently, the fundamentals of high and low sulfur have diverged. Affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the refinery feed demand for fuel oil has declined significantly. Recently, the differentiation between high-sulfur standard and non-standard products has continued. Recently, the spread between high and low sulfur can be expanded on dips, but there is no downward trend in high-sulfur cracking before the peak season. Pay attention to the fulfillment of power generation procurement demand [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 3.74, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 5.23, the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 increased by 0.09, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 7.22, the Rotterdam VLSFO-G M1 increased by 1.99, the LGO-Brent M1 increased by 0.64, and the Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 decreased by 1.49 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 5.99, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 6.68, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 8.88, the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by 1.11, the Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 increased by 0.51, and the Singapore VLSFO-Gasoil M1 decreased by 0.67 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by 7.03, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 10.25, the 380 basis decreased by 0.05, the high-sulfur internal and external spread decreased by 0.6, and the low-sulfur internal and external spread decreased by 1.0 [3] Domestic FU Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 58, the price of FU 05 decreased by 57, the price of FU 09 decreased by 62, the FU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 1, the FU 05 - 09 spread increased by 5, and the FU 09 - 01 spread decreased by 4 [3] Domestic LU Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased by 74, the price of LU 05 decreased by 68, the price of LU 09 decreased by 75, the LU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 6, the LU 05 - 09 spread increased by 7, and the LU 09 - 01 spread decreased by 1 [4]