华尔街警告称，随着大型科技公司掀起史无前例的发债潮，全球信用市场或在未来几年面临"供给消化 不良"的风险，并可能对欧美两地的债市造成压力。若Alphabet(GOOG.US,GOOGL.US)、 Meta(META.US)等公司的巨额发债节奏延续至2026年，原本已创纪录的年度发行规模可能进一步推高 利差，引发市场对AI投资回报与资产泡沫的更深疑虑。 智通财经APP获悉，根据摩根士丹利预计，科技巨头为扩建人工智能和数据中心基础设施，至2028年可 能累积筹集多达1.5 万亿美元的债务资金。这意味着债市整体利差可能被动上升，因为债券投资者开始 质疑，在近期科技股波动加剧、AI投资热潮升温的背景下，他们是否获得了足够的风险补偿。 摩根大通策略师Matthew Bailey警告称，大规模数据中心融资可能导致美元与欧元市场"双向供给过 剩"。今年已有多笔巨量发行刷新纪录：Alphabet(GOOG.US,GOOGL.US)在美国融资175亿美元，在欧洲 则发行65亿欧元；Meta(META.US)发债规模更高达300亿美元，订单簿峰值达1250亿美元，为历史之 最；甲骨文(ORCL.US)也完成了180亿美元的大额发 ...

预期的 630 亿美元。 英伟达在应对市场关注的关键问题上有哪些表现？ 电子掘金：再谈 AI 投资，我们的信心从何而来？ 20251123 摘要 英伟达最新季度业绩超预期，收入达 570 亿美元，同比增幅超 60%， 环比增幅超 20%。Non-GAAP 毛利率为 73.6%，虽同比下滑，但考虑 到产品结构差异，表现依然强劲。公司预计第四季度收入中位数为 650 亿美元，高于市场预期。 英伟达预测 2025 年和 2026 年总收入将达 5,000 亿美元，包括 Blackwell 和 Rooming 架构 GPU 及网络收入。公司认为 GPU 折旧周 期在 4-5 年甚至更长时间内合理稳定，A100 芯片仍有高利用率和毛利 率。 英伟达认为对 GPU 快速折旧周期过于悲观是不必要的，传统业务向大模 型转换过程中，对 GPU 赋能需求量巨大。谷歌、Meta 等公司广告业务 增长得益于 AI 技术支持，不应仅以 AI 收入衡量 AI 资本支出。 预计 2026 年北美四大云厂商 AI 资本支出将保持 40%-50%的高增速， 即使整体资本支出占运营现金流比例较高，也未见全产业链上杠杆过度 扩张，总体风险仍在可控 ...

Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining caution in the short term and waiting for market stabilization [5][9] - The overall A-share market has seen a decline, with the Wind All A Index dropping by 3.17% to 6030.56 points, and various indices reflecting similar downward trends [7][8] Economic Insights - In October, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 10.4% year-on-year, reaching 857.2 billion kWh [15][16] - The breakdown of electricity consumption shows significant growth in the tertiary industry, particularly in charging services and information technology sectors [16] Industry Dynamics - A meeting was held to promote stable livestock production, noting that the number of breeding sows fell below 40 million by the end of October [25] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the livestock sector for potential price stabilization due to production adjustments [25] Company Updates - Baili Tianheng (688506.SH) received acceptance for its drug application for the first-in-class EGFR×HER3 dual antibody ADC for treating advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma [27][28] - Jindi Co., Ltd. (603270.SH) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Dongpei Co., Ltd. to collaborate on humanoid robot harmonic reducer assemblies [29][30] - Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ) successfully secured small batch orders for ball screws and roller screws through negotiations with a leading foreign screw manufacturer [31][32] Local Economic Developments - Hengguang Co., Ltd. (301118.SZ) reported a reduction in shareholding by a major shareholder, which did not significantly impact the company's governance structure [33] - The Hunan provincial government launched the first phase of its public data circulation infrastructure, marking a significant step in digital economic development [34]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a 1 to 2% upward bias due to the resumption of purchases by pension plans and 401k accounts, often referred to as the "Santa Claus rally" [2] - Concerns about the AI bubble persist, with notable declines in companies like SoftBank, which dropped 10% [3][4] - The technology sector remains a focal point, with expectations for sales and margin expansion in AI investments, particularly for companies like Alphabet and Netflix [5][6] Consumer Spending Trends - Anticipated holiday spending is projected to grow between 2% and 7% year-over-year, with a more conservative estimate of 3% to 4% growth [9] - Consumers are expected to spend significantly on consumables and clothing, benefiting companies like Amazon and Walmart, especially during Black Friday and year-end promotions [10][11] - Amazon and Walmart are anticipated to gain market share from higher-priced retailers, as evidenced by Target's recent performance [11] Company-Specific Insights - The AI investments in Google and Netflix are expected to enhance their revenues by attracting more advertisers and viewers [12] - The market's reaction to potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is significant, with a focus on how such announcements could influence market sentiment [14]

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 短期保持谨慎，静待市场企稳 财信证券宏观策略周报（11.24-11.28） 2025 年 11 月 23 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -0.75 1.82 13.86 沪深 300 -1.86 4.27 11.74 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。上周在海外市场调整影响下，万得全 A 指数阶段性向下调整，跌 破震荡调整区间，短期仍需合理控制仓位，静待指数企稳信号出现。一是从 资金面来看，11 月底之前机构倾向于守住全年收益，加仓意愿不强，但 12 月 中旬开始，机构资金将逐步开始布局 2026 年方向，存在"抢跑"的预期；二 是中央经济工作会议通常在 12 月中旬召开，将为明年经济工作指明方向，预 计在中央经济工作会议前后，政策预期利好将支撑市场；三是从技术形态来 看，201 ...

Economic Overview - Germany's economy is at a crossroads, facing manufacturing recession, collapsing exports, expanding debt, and technological lag [1][16] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is only 0.2%, significantly lower than the Eurozone average of 0.8% [2][7] - Structural issues are deeply rooted, including a collapsing export model, declining manufacturing competitiveness, and a lack of digital transformation [2][8] Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 20% of GDP, is in crisis, particularly the automotive industry, which contributes 5% of GDP and employs 800,000 directly [3][4] - Major automotive companies like Porsche and Volkswagen are experiencing severe profit declines and production halts due to supply chain disruptions and high costs associated with electric vehicle (EV) transitions [3][4] - The automotive industry's export has decreased by 8% in the first three quarters of 2025, with EV penetration at only 18%, far below the EU target of 25% [4][11] Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Struggles - SMEs are facing a dire situation, with a 12.2% increase in bankruptcy rates in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024 [5] - The mechanical engineering sector's orders have plummeted by over 20%, with 33% of SMEs rating the current situation as "bad" or "very bad" [5][11] - The overall manufacturing output has declined by 10% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a broader manufacturing recession [5][11] Export Market Decline - Germany's export model, which heavily relies on high-end products, is collapsing, with total exports expected to shrink by 2% to 3% in 2025 [9][11] - The U.S. market has seen a significant drop in exports, with a 20% decline in August 2025 due to high tariffs [10] - The Chinese market is also becoming a challenge, with local brands capturing a significant market share, leading to a 13.5% decline in automotive exports to China [10][11] Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The German government has adjusted its strict fiscal discipline to allow for a special fund of €500 billion for defense and infrastructure, which is independent of the debt brake [12][13] - This fund aims to stimulate short-term growth, with infrastructure investments expected to rise by 15% in 2025 [13] - However, long-term risks remain, as additional debt could lead to increased interest burdens if growth does not exceed 1% [13][14] Technological Transition Issues - Germany is lagging in the digital revolution, with only 2% of global AI investment, despite being a leader in Industry 4.0 [15][16] - The manufacturing cost index has risen by 25% since 2022, leading to a 15% decline in export competitiveness [15] - The government is attempting to attract talent and investment in AI, with a €55 billion investment from Google expected to contribute significantly to GDP and job creation [16]

Market Performance - U.S. stock markets faced significant pressure last week, with the Dow Jones down 1.91%, S&P 500 down 1.95%, and Nasdaq down 2.74% [1] - The S&P and Nasdaq indices fell approximately 5.5% and 8.5% from recent peaks, respectively, indicating bearish short-term signals [1] - Implied volatility for one month reached a monthly high, reflecting widespread market anxiety [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced even worse conditions, with Bitcoin dropping to around $83,000, a 35% decline from its historical peak of $126,000 [1] - Bitcoin's price fell 18% last week, marking the strongest weekly decline since mid-November 2022 [1] - November is expected to record the worst monthly performance since the market correction in June 2022 [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The October meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve revealed intense internal debates regarding the possibility of a rate cut in December [2] - Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data for September complicated the outlook, with futures traders raising the probability of a December rate cut to over 70%, nearly doubling from below 40% after the non-farm data [2] - The cancellation of the October employment report and the delay of the October CPI report may impact the Fed's decision-making process ahead of the December meeting [2] AI Stock Concerns - Recent market declines were partly driven by concerns over high valuations of AI stocks, leading to skepticism about AI investment returns [2] - Nvidia's strong earnings report, which exceeded market expectations for Q3 revenue and Q4 sales, initially boosted market sentiment [2] - However, the market experienced a severe intraday reversal, resulting in over $2.7 trillion in market value evaporating, with the VIX volatility index rising above 26 for the first time since April [2] Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming week is crucial for U.S. economic data due to the Thanksgiving holiday, with key reports expected in the first three days [3] - Market attention is focused on the September Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer confidence index, as well as initial jobless claims data on Wednesday [3] - The significance of the weekly initial jobless claims data is heightened due to the absence of a complete October non-farm employment report [3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for December, with previous optimism about rate cuts being tempered by recent hawkish statements from the Fed [1][4] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America indicates that tightening liquidity is impacting multiple asset classes, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market will be the first to sense a shift in central bank policy [1][7] - Hartnett predicts that the current weakness in U.S. bank stocks is signaling a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, similar to signals observed in December 2018 [1][4] Group 2 - Hartnett forecasts that the Federal Reserve will likely initiate a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, benefiting long-duration zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin, and mid-cap stocks [2] - Japan is facing a debt crisis, with a significant decline in 30-year government bonds and the yen nearing a 40-year low against the dollar, raising global liquidity concerns [3] - The combination of expansive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy in Japan is exacerbating the depreciation of the yen and pressure on government bonds [3] Group 3 - U.S. mid-cap stocks are showing a notable divergence in valuation and performance, indicating that the Fed's policy adjustments are lagging behind market demands [4] - The decline in bank and brokerage indices, which are sensitive to liquidity, serves as a leading indicator for potential policy shifts [4] - Hartnett emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, will act as an early warning system for changes in central bank policy due to its sensitivity to liquidity changes [7][8]

本周市场普跌，指增组合收益承压 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 分析师 韩乾 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060004 hanqian@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《沪深 300 增强超额收益领先市场》 2025-11-15 2. 《红利微盘哑铃型策略回归，指增超额表 现回暖》 2025-11-08 3. 《2025 年 12 月核心宽基指数成分股调 整预测》 2025-11-06 证券研究报告 量化选股策略周报/ 2025.11.22 核心观点 ❖ 我们基于深度学习框架构建 alpha 和风险模型，打造 AI 体系下的低 频指数增强策略： ❖ 风险提示：因子失效风险，模型失效风险，市场风格变动风险。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 本周市场指数表现：截至 2025-11-21，本周上证指数下跌 3.90%，深证 成指下跌 5.13%，沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，市场情绪下降指数蒙受较大跌幅。 ❖ 本周指数增强基金表现：截至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market decline is attributed to multiple factors breaking market consensus, including the Federal Reserve's unexpected hawkish stance, the transformative impact of Google's Gemini-3 on the AI landscape, retail investors' shift in sentiment due to cryptocurrency volatility, and systematic selling triggered by quantitative funds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's unexpected hawkish shift has led to a rapid withdrawal of rate cut expectations, with the probability of a rate cut in December now deemed "essentially zero" [7][8]. - Recent employment data presents mixed signals, with a rise in unemployment to 4.44% despite steady job growth, raising concerns about the Fed's policy direction [7][9]. Group 2: AI Market Dynamics - The focus of AI investment has shifted from Nvidia to Google's Gemini-3 model, which is seen as a game-changing development that could delay product cycles for other companies and increase capital expenditure [10]. - The market is experiencing a "winner-takes-all" dynamic, with significant differentiation between companies in the AI sector, leading to increased uncertainty in investment returns [10]. Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Impact - The recent crash in the cryptocurrency market has caused a shift in retail investor behavior from "diamond hands" to active selling, reflecting a significant change in risk appetite [11][12]. - The decline in cryptocurrency values has had a spillover effect on unprofitable tech stocks and AI-related equities, indicating a broader market sentiment shift [12]. Group 4: Systematic Selling Pressure - Systematic funds, particularly trend-following funds (CTAs), have been forced to liquidate positions as market volatility increased, leading to a chain reaction of selling [13][14]. - The market's previously stable low-volatility structure collapsed, resulting in significant price drops without specific news or events triggering them [14]. Group 5: Capital Constraints in AI Expansion - The rising cost of capital is becoming a critical factor for AI investments, with concerns about the corporate debt market and the implications for AI data center financing [15]. - The potential slowdown in AI expansion due to higher capital costs represents a risk that the market has not fully priced in [15]. Group 6: Market Stabilization Conditions - For the market to stabilize, three conditions must be met: clearing of CTA positions, retail investors being squeezed out of excessive long positions, and at least two of the following triggers: stabilization in cryptocurrency, a clear dovish shift from the Fed, or some form of support for AI capital expenditure [17].