格隆汇11月11日｜数据显示，关键的北海原油市场指标跌至一年多以来的最低点，表明随着供应持续增 长，未来几个月的价格前景正在黯淡。据交易员称，在S&P Global Commodity Insights旗下Platts运营的 定价窗口中，WTI Midland（六个供应布伦特原油的等级之一）周一的交易价格比全球基准高出40美分/ 桶——这是自2024年5月以来的最低溢价。与此同时，用于对冲北海货物的周度布伦特原油掉期（被称 为差价合约）也有所缓解。根据PVM Oil Associates的数据显示，第一周的差价合约交易价格比第六周 低41美分，这是一年多以来最大的看跌正价差结构。这种模式意味着近期价格比远期价格便宜，通常反 映了即期供应充足或需求疲软。北海市场的疲软并不令人意外，此前石油市场正为明年供应过剩做准 备。国际能源署已预测原油将出现创纪录的供应过剩，非欧佩克的产量增长加剧了这种过剩。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The OPEC+ eight - country decision to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter, but unexpectedly relieve the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December. With the end of the peak demand season, the overall oil product inventory has slightly increased. The market is worried about crude oil demand. Although the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern, factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela are at play. US - China relations have not fundamentally changed, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate in the near term [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, the OPEC+ eight - country decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year, and the next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30th. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the acceleration of OPEC+ production increase have all contributed to the supply - surplus situation. The US has sanctioned Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. The meeting between the leaders of China and the US is in line with market expectations, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 0.30% to 458.8 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 457.0 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 462.1 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 1,784 to 23,898 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA expects the global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It has also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. As of the week ending October 31st, US crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels. OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day, while its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day. US crude oil production reached a new high of 13.651 million barrels per day in the week ending October 31st [3] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day. The single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 4.35% month - on - month [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China are set to increase for the seventh time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10, 2023. This adjustment reflects the ongoing fluctuations in the global oil market and seasonal demand changes [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The price of gasoline will increase by 5 yuan for a typical family car with a 50-liter fuel tank [1]. - This marks the 22nd adjustment of domestic oil prices this year, with a total of 7 increases, 9 decreases, and 6 instances of no change [1]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil prices have shown narrow fluctuations during the recent adjustment period, with Brent crude oil futures oscillating between 63 to 65 USD per barrel [3]. - Factors such as the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, unexpected increases in U.S. crude oil inventories, and ongoing geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine conflict) are contributing to market concerns about economic outlook and oil supply surplus [3]. - Seasonal demand is anticipated to rise due to colder weather in the U.S., which may increase heating oil requirements, potentially supporting oil prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised for the seventh time this year, with increases of 125 yuan per ton for gasoline and 120 yuan per ton for diesel, effective from November 10, 2025 [1] Price Changes - The price increase translates to an additional 0.10 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel, resulting in an extra 5 yuan for filling a 50L tank [3] - For a vehicle running 2000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 7 yuan before the next price adjustment [4] - For heavy trucks running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by about 177 yuan before the next price adjustment [4] Market Context - Since the beginning of the year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 22 adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 620 yuan per ton for gasoline and 595 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the beginning of the year [4] - The recent price adjustment comes after a four-month period of declining prices, with the last increase occurring on July 1 [4] - International oil prices have been under pressure due to increased production from major oil-producing countries and rising U.S. oil inventories, leading to a cumulative drop of about 2% in major benchmark oil contracts last week [5] Future Outlook - OPEC+ has confirmed a slight increase in production for December but has paused plans for further increases in the first quarter of next year due to concerns about oversupply [5] - The market is expected to focus on the oil inventory situation following the seasonal decline in U.S. oil demand, with projections indicating that the next pricing cycle may start with a negative change rate based on current oil prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of domestic fuel price adjustments will take effect on November 10, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing slightly due to fluctuations in international oil prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From November 10, the retail price of gasoline and diesel will be raised by 125 and 120 yuan per ton, respectively, leading to an increase of 0.10 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel on average nationwide [1]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 5 yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The global crude oil market is currently characterized by an overall supply surplus [4]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, could escalate, potentially impacting Venezuelan oil supply [4]. - Seasonal demand for heating oil is expected to rise as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, which may provide support for oil prices [4].

Group 1 - Oil prices have risen, narrowing the decline for the second consecutive week, as the market weighs the impact of sanctions on Russian oil production against the potential for an upcoming oversupply of crude oil [1] - U.S. crude futures have rebounded above $60 per barrel, but remain in a downward trend for the week, with stock market volatility contributing to concerns over oversupply [1] - The White House's measures to limit Russian oil purchases have led Gunvor Group to withdraw its proposal to acquire international assets from Lukoil PJSC, which include oil field stakes, refineries, and gas stations [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant increase in oil supply from OPEC and non-OPEC countries by the end of this year through 2026, potentially leading to record oversupply [2] - Despite signs of oversupply from increased tanker transport, major oil storage hubs have not yet shown significant impact, with U.S. crude inventories decreasing at the end of October compared to the beginning of the month [2] - In Asia, China's crude oil imports have increased year-on-year in October, but the growth rate of China's oil reserves is expected to slow, which may weaken support for oil prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The current situation of the crude oil market is one of supply surplus. Considering factors such as the increase in supply, the end of the consumption peak season, and geopolitical tensions, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, combined with the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and the decline in the ISM manufacturing index, has led to concerns about demand. However, due to the sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military stand - off between the U.S. and Venezuela, the export of Russian crude oil is expected to be restricted. The talks between Chinese and U.S. leaders were in line with market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not changed fundamentally [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 0.02% to 460.6 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 452.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 461.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,684 to 26,307 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects a global oil inventory increase of about 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, and has adjusted up the U.S. crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also adjusted up the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80/barrel to $68.64/barrel, but expects the price to drop to $59/barrel in Q4 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43/barrel. OPEC has adjusted up the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has adjusted down the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day, and adjusted up the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, exacerbating the oil supply surplus [3] EIA Data - On the evening of November 5, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending October 31, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 30,000 barrels. The EIA data indicated that the decline in gasoline inventories exceeded expectations, while the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations, resulting in a slight increase in overall oil product inventories [4] Supply and Demand Data - The OPEC latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in August 2025 was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production for the week ending October 31 increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day, reaching a new historical high. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel demand also decreased both weekly and on a four - week average basis [4][5]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on November 7, 2025 [2] Group 2: Daily News - India's Reliance Industries, the largest private refiner, is seeking to sell some Middle - Eastern oil cargoes to domestic and international buyers, which is unusual as it's usually a major buyer. It's trying to sell oil grades like Murban and Upper Zakum on the spot market. After US sanctions on Russia, it bought millions of barrels of crude from the Middle East last month [3] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in October decreased by 10% month - on - month to 169 million barrels per day [3] - Russia's Tuapse refinery stopped fuel exports after a drone attack on November 2 [3] - Global commodity trader Mercuria said that a supply glut is slowly forming and may hit the market in the next few months [3] Group 3: Inventory US Inventory - In the week ending October 31, US crude oil exports increased by 0.6 million barrels per day to 436.7 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 0.7 million barrels to 1365.1 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 1.25% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels (a 0.12% increase). The average four - week supply of US crude oil products was 2034.4 million barrels per day, a 1.15% decrease from the same period last year. US crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 592.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 87.3 million barrels per day from the previous week [4] - US EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma in the week ending October 31 was 30,000 barrels, compared with 133,400 barrels in the previous week [4] - US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending October 31 was - 4.729 million barrels (expected - 1.14 million barrels, previous value - 5.941 million barrels), and refined oil inventory was - 643,000 barrels (expected - 1.969 million barrels, previous value - 3.362 million barrels) [5] UAE Inventory - As of the week ending November 5, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 851,000 barrels to 18.607 million barrels. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels to 6.713 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 79,000 barrels to 3.234 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 2.166 million barrels to 8.66 million barrels [5] Domestic Inventory - From October 23 - 30, domestic major refinery operations decreased, independent refinery operations increased slightly, gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, independent refinery gasoline inventory increased while diesel inventory decreased, and the profits of major and independent refineries both decreased [5] Group 4: Weekly Viewpoint - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. On Friday, US media reported that the US was about to launch a military attack on Venezuela, causing oil prices to rise. On Sunday, OPEC + members confirmed an increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. According to data provided by Vortexa and organized by institutions, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports in the first 26 days of October were 1.89 million barrels, and Kpler's preliminary data showed that Russia's average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 460,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels per day [6] - Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased this week, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded this week [6] - Short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, but the pressure on crude oil supply release is high. Brazil's P78 has been put into production, OPEC has further increased production, and the US total production remains at a high level. Crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [6] Group 5: Price Data - The report provides price data for WTI, BRENT, DUBAI, SC, OMAN, and other oil products from October 31 to November 6, 2025, as well as price differences and changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices declined as investors weighed potential supply surplus and weak demand, with U.S. crude oil inventories rising significantly [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - U.S. crude oil main contract fell by 0.12% to $59.53 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.08% to $63.47 per barrel [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an increase of 5.202 million barrels in crude oil inventories, exceeding expectations [1] - U.S. crude oil production reached a historical high, intensifying market concerns about oversupply [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation. Although there are factors such as potential restrictions on Russian oil exports and the outcome of Sino - US leaders' talks, the report expects crude oil prices to fluctuate in the near term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and will suspend production increase in Q1 2026. This will increase the supply pressure in Q4 2025 but relieve it in Q1 2026 [1]. - The peak consumption season is over, and market concerns about crude oil demand have arisen due to factors such as the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index in October. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and exports from the Middle East are rising [1]. - The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated. The future of Russian oil exports is uncertain, and India's attitude towards Russian oil imports is also divided [1]. - The Sino - US leaders' talks basically met market expectations, and bilateral relations have not changed fundamentally [1]. [期现行情] - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 fell 0.37% to 460.4 yuan/ton, with a low of 456.0 yuan/ton and a high of 465.8 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 828 to 27,991 lots [2]. [基本面跟踪] - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, raises the US crude oil production forecast for 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day, and adjusts the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 [3]. - OPEC and IEA have different adjustments to the global oil demand and supply growth rates for 2025 and 2026, and the oil supply surplus is intensifying [3]. - US EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels in the week ending October 31, 2025, and gasoline inventory decreased more than expected, while overall oil product inventories increased slightly [4]. - OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day, and its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production reached a new high in the week ending October 31 [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, 2.20% lower than the same period last year. The demand for gasoline and diesel also decreased [5].