Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, oil prices closed lower. Significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Zelensky and Trump will discuss a peace plan next week, with Russia being open to the idea, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US yet. The risk premium for gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly reversed, and the crude oil monthly spread has declined, with a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching the highest level since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US oil rigs and fracturing operations has risen, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have increased. Recently, there is still room for downward adjustment in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With a supply-demand surplus, a short-selling strategy for crude oil is maintained, with a forecasted Brent price range of $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US's draft plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. [6][9] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Price Data Summary - From November 18 - 24, 2025, WTI crude oil prices fluctuated from $60.74 to $58.84, with a change of $0.78; Brent crude oil prices dropped from $64.89 to $62.22, a decrease of $0.34; Dubai crude oil prices rose from $65.20 to $64.50, with a change of $0.11. Other related oil product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The Tuapse refinery in Russia resumed oil processing on November 21. - After the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude oil is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to the Brent crude oil spot price (CIF). Some Indian refiners have changed their stance due to the lower prices and are considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers. - The US is preparing to launch a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days. - JPMorgan Chase believes that due to oversupply, Brent crude oil prices could fall to the $30 - $40 per barrel range in 2027. [3][4] 3.3 Inventory Data - According to the EIA report, in the week of November 14, US crude oil exports increased by 1.342 million barrels per day to 4.158 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.028 million barrels to 13.834 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.8%. - The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.641 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period last year. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.533 million barrels to 410.9 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 5.95 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.728 million barrels per day compared to the previous week. - From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories were 10.2331 million tons, a decrease of 1.75%, and diesel inventories were 12.2708 million tons, a decrease of 4.25%. The inventories of major refiners and social entities decreased, while those of local refineries increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refiners rebounded, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated. [4][5][16]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market has experienced fluctuations, with recent price increases attributed to cost support and inventory reduction, but the outlook suggests a potential peak due to weakening demand and rising inventory levels [1][3][6] Group 1: PTA Market Dynamics - Recent PTA prices have risen, reaching a high not seen since early September, driven by cost support and inventory reduction [1] - The operating rate of PTA production facilities decreased by 4 percentage points from November 10 to November 20, while downstream polyester operating rates only fell by about 1 percentage point, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [1][3] - As of November 20, the average PTA processing fee from July to November was 198 yuan/ton, indicating a production loss situation for PTA [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The decline in crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical negotiations, is expected to weaken cost support for PTA, leading to a higher probability of a market peak [3][5][6] - The expectation of increased inventory in January and February 2024 is likely to dominate market sentiment, with historical data showing inventory levels between 830,000 to 900,000 tons during this period [3][6] - Despite four months of continuous inventory reduction, the spot market remains significantly lower than futures prices, indicating a lack of tight supply conditions [3][6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The OPEC+ plan to gradually increase oil production from October 2025 is expected to shift the oil supply outlook from anticipated shortages to actual oversupply, further diminishing upward pressure on oil prices [5] - Concerns remain regarding potential geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply, particularly involving Venezuela, which could impact oil prices if conflicts arise [5]

本报讯（记者 杨美）国内成品油价迎来年内第十次下调。据国家发展改革委网站最新消息，自11月24 日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低70元和65元。折合成升价，92号汽油、95 号汽油及0号柴油分别下调0.05元、0.06元、0.06元。 卓创资讯数据监测模型显示，本次成品油价下调后，消费者用油成本有所降低。油箱容量在50升的小型 私家车加满一箱油将比此前少花2.5元左右。国内多数地区92号汽油将进入"6元时代"。 原油需求侧整体呈现增速放缓、内部分化的格局。黄柳楠表示，因美国经济数据疲软，全球原油需求增 长预期下调，但增速仍高于2024年。炼油环节成为关键瓶颈，全球炼厂开工率因计划检修、意外停产及 制裁导致的物流问题大幅下滑。与之相反，成品油需求结构性强劲，由于柴油和航空煤油库存处于低 位、工业运输需求旺盛及俄罗斯油品供应中断，裂解价差飙升至多年以来高位。 展望后期油价走势，黄柳楠预计，今年年底到明年年初，Brent、WTI原油价格或考验4月前低，甚至可 能考验50美元/桶，上海原油期价跌幅或小于外盘。建议关注宏观预期潜在反转，届时油价波动或放 大。 卓创资讯成品油分析师曹莹莹表示，俄乌 ...

每经AI快讯，摩根大通预计由于供应过剩，布伦特原油价格可能在2027年跌至30~40美元区间。 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 2 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下 一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA 数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于 历史最高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯12月份交付的石油。乌克 兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价差持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞 拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内瑞拉开展新行动。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、 ...

11月24日24时，国内成品油零售价格迎来年内第10次下调。 国家发展改革委官网披露，近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据11月24日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次 调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自11月24日24时起，国内汽、柴油价 格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低70元和65元。 本轮调价周期内国际原油价格宽幅波动 本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格呈现先扬后抑的宽幅波动走势。 物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38升的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的 燃油成本将减少106元左右。此外，本次下调落实后，国内实行一省一价的地区92号汽油将全面进入"6 元时代"。 市场人士预计，下一轮成品油调价下调的概率较大。 本轮调价周期内汽油柴油批发市场价格回涨 本轮成品油零售调价周期内，国内成品油市场汽油和柴油的批发价格出现回涨。市场人士指出，虽然周 期内国际原油呈现跌势，但由于前期汽油柴油价格持续下跌，上游整体利润端承压，叠加社会库存相对 偏低，刺激上游挺价意愿增强，中下游追涨入市带动市场成交好转，汽油柴油价格出现回涨，其中柴油 由于刚需支撑尚存，价格涨幅大于汽油。不过，随着天气 ...

近期，国际原油市场多空因素交织，整体呈现复杂震荡格局。展望后市，俄乌局势的演变仍是影响油市的关键变量，若双方达成停 战协议，俄罗斯原油供应约束放松，将加大全球原油供应过剩压力，油价将面临进一步调整风险。 受此影响，市场对美联储降息预期迅速降温。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员对12月降息25个基点的概率预测从48.9%降至 32.7%。美元指数随之显著走强，突破100整数关口，美债收益率也同步上行，对以美元计价的国际原油等大宗商品价格构成压 制。 三大机构月报强化供应过剩预期 11月中旬，美国能源信息署（EIA）、国际能源署（IEA）和石油输出国组织（OPEC）相继发布最新月度报告。尽管各机构对原油 需求增速的判断仍存差异，但在供给持续增长这一基本判断上已形成共识。 美元走强压制大宗商品价格走势 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国劳工统计局宣布，因部分关键数据无法正常采集，将不再单独发布10月非农就业报告，原定于12月5 日发布的11月报告推迟至12月16日公布。这意味着美联储在年内最后一次政策决策前，将完全缺失10月以来的关键就业数据支撑， 就业数据空窗期的延长进一步加剧了货币政策的不确定性，并显著提升美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices are expected to experience their tenth decline of the year, with gasoline and diesel prices projected to drop by 70 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively, leading to a new price era for gasoline in certain regions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The new round of price adjustments for refined oil will take effect on November 24, with gasoline and diesel prices expected to decrease by 0.05 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.06 yuan per liter respectively [1]. - The average price of the crude oil varieties referenced for domestic refined oil pricing is currently at 61.68 USD/barrel, reflecting a change rate of -1.21% [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The international oil market is facing a downward trend due to expectations of oversupply and reduced geopolitical risk premiums, as indicated by major energy agencies [2]. - The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for oil supply surplus in 2026 to 4.09 million barrels per day, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the international oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, with potential for further declines in domestic refined oil prices in the next adjustment cycle [3]. - Factors such as ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are expected to keep international crude oil prices under pressure, influencing future domestic pricing strategies [3].

转自：期货日报 近期，国际原油市场多空因素交织，整体呈现复杂震荡格局。展望后市，俄乌局势的演变仍是影响油市 的关键变量，若双方达成协议，俄罗斯原油供应约束放松，将加大全球原油供应过剩压力，油价将面临 进一步调整风险。 美元走强压制大宗商品价格走势 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国劳工统计局宣布，因部分关键数据无法正常采集，将不再单独发布10月非 农就业报告，原定于12月5日发布的11月报告推迟至12月16日公布。这意味着美联储在年内最后一次政 策决策前，将完全缺失10月以来的关键就业数据支撑，就业数据空窗期的延长进一步加剧了货币政策的 不确定性，并显著提升美联储暂停降息的概率。 与此同时，美联储最新公布的10月会议纪要显示，决策层内部存在严重分歧。官员们就12月是否实施连 续第三次降息争议激烈：部分委员主张继续降息以应对就业市场疲软风险，另有多位成员明确支持按兵 不动，而多数与会者认为，进一步降息可能会增加高通胀固化风险，或被误解为美联储对实现2%通胀 目标缺乏承诺。 受此影响，市场对美联储降息预期迅速降温。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员对12月降息25个基 点的概率预测从48.9%降至32.7%。美元指 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Developments - The Trump administration is preparing a backup plan for tariffs amid potential Supreme Court challenges to a key tariff authorization [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative's Office are exploring options under Trade Act Sections 301 and 122, which grant the president unilateral tariff authority [2] - If the court ruling is unfavorable, the U.S. government may be forced to refund over $88 billion in tariffs, but analysts expect immediate reimplementation of tariffs [2] Group 2: U.S.-Brazil Trade Relations - The U.S. has announced the cancellation of a 40% additional tariff on certain Brazilian goods, including coffee, meat, and fruits, while approximately 22% of exports to the U.S. remain affected [3][4] - This tariff adjustment is seen as a significant progress in bilateral negotiations, with Brazil expressing optimism about ongoing talks [4] - The White House's decision also includes the removal of a 40% tariff on Brazilian aircraft parts, aimed at balancing national security concerns with trade relations [5][6] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have been declining, with WTI crude futures down 1.59% to $58.06 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.29% to $62.56 per barrel, amid geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures [13] - Analysts suggest that a potential resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could significantly reduce geopolitical risks and lead to a drop in oil prices as Russian oil returns to the market [13][14] - Current oil supply is under pressure, with OPEC+ increasing production while demand is in a seasonal decline, leading to expectations of significant inventory build-up in 2025-2026 [14][15]