Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the RMB exchange rate signal a stable outlook, with the RMB appreciating against the USD, reaching its highest level since October 15, 2024, at a midpoint of 7.0881 on October 27, 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB midpoint has shown a continuous upward trend, with a notable increase of 47 basis points on October 27, 2023, indicating a strong performance against the USD [1]. - The onshore RMB opened at 7.1083 against the USD, later stabilizing around 7.11, reflecting a robust market response [1]. - Analysts suggest that the RMB's appreciation is not fully aligned with the significant depreciation of the USD, indicating a potential for further strengthening [3]. Group 2: External Factors Influencing RMB - The RMB's recent strength is attributed to a weaker USD, which has declined by 8.82% year-to-date, despite a slight rebound due to weakness in other currencies like the JPY [5]. - The market anticipates that the USD will continue to weaken in the long term due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns over the US fiscal outlook [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Projections for 2026 suggest a moderate appreciation of the RMB, contingent on stable export conditions and supportive domestic fundamentals [6]. - The Central Bank's policies are expected to remain flexible, allowing for adjustments to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate amidst external pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, marked by a 5.3% drop on October 21, is seen as a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift in the gold market's long-term bullish trend [1][3][13] Market Reaction - On October 21, gold prices fell nearly $300 from a peak of $4,381 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in five years [1] - The probability of a complete reversal in gold's upward trend is assessed at only 25% by professional institutions [3] - The market's volatility has raised caution among traders, indicating a shift in short-term sentiment [3] Key Factors Influencing Gold Prices - A sudden decrease in market risk aversion, driven by optimistic signals regarding U.S.-China trade agreements and potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has contributed to the sell-off [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which rose 0.34% on October 21, has further pressured gold prices, making it more expensive for non-U.S. currency investors [3] Underlying Support for Gold - The long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact despite short-term challenges [5][10] - Key signals to monitor for the gold market include: - Real interest rates: A declining real interest rate environment typically supports gold prices [5] - U.S. dollar trends: Gold remains favorable as long as the dollar does not show a significant upward trend [6] - Gold volatility: Current volatility levels, while heightened, have not reached extreme historical levels, suggesting potential for recovery [8] Central Bank Activity - Global central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2024, second only to historical peaks [10] - The People's Bank of China has consistently increased its gold reserves, surpassing 74 million ounces [10] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical trends indicate that gold prices often follow a ten-year cycle, with the current bull market lasting 34 months, slightly exceeding historical averages [12] - Structural changes in the global monetary system, including a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, support gold's transition from a traditional safe-haven asset to a "new monetary anchor" [12] - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. CPI data and Federal Reserve meetings, will be critical for assessing short-term gold price movements [12]

Inflation Data - In September, the US CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, marking the highest level since the beginning of the year[2] - Core CPI fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, which was below market expectations[2][3] - The month-on-month increase in core CPI was 0.23%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from August[3] Economic Factors - The increase in durable goods prices was 0.32% month-on-month, indicating ongoing effects from tariffs imposed earlier this year[3] - Labor market cooling and a weak real estate market contributed to the decline in inflation, with core non-durable goods and core services rising by 0.08% and 0.24%, respectively[3][4] - Despite a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, long-term interest rates remained high, limiting the rebound in core CPI[3][4] Future Outlook - The potential for a rebound in core CPI exists in the first half of next year due to the recovery of key factors and base effects[4][16] - The upcoming fiscal expansion may boost manufacturing investment and create jobs, impacting inflation dynamics positively[4][16] - The US dollar index may gain momentum from economic cycles and monetary easing in developed economies[4][16]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The overall CPI in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate was 3%, also below the expected 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [1] - The market perceives that the Federal Reserve has likely concluded its rate hike cycle, with nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.966%, marking a recent low, and the yield curve indicating increased expectations for Fed rate cuts [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in October is a focal point for the market, with a high probability of confirming a dovish stance, which may put further pressure on the dollar and lead to increased inflows into gold and commodities [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and economic data visibility continues to affect market volatility and investor sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Market Insights - The rise in rate cut expectations supports gold prices, suggesting potential low-positioning opportunities while monitoring short-term volatility from Fed officials' comments [2] - The dollar faces short-term downward pressure, with trading opportunities in the euro against the dollar and dollar against yen, recommending cautious trading strategies [2] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields provides some support for the stock market, but overall risk appetite remains constrained by policy uncertainties [2][3] Group 4: Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to rising inventories and demand concerns, with OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical situations being key variables to watch [3]

衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.02%，在汇市尾市收于98.953。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1626美元，高于前一交易日的1.1618美元；1英镑兑换1.3304美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3323美元。 新华财经纽约10月24日电美元指数24日上涨。 （文章来源：新华社） 1美元兑换152.87日元，高于前一交易日的152.53日元；1美元兑换0.7957瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.7952瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4001加元，高于前一交易日的1.3989加元；1美元兑换9.3948瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的9.3909瑞典克朗。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index remained stable at 98.94, with mixed performance among non-US currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.07% against the US dollar, reaching 1.1627 [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.10% against the US dollar, settling at 1.3312 [1] Group 2 - The Australian dollar remained unchanged against the US dollar at 0.6513 [1] - The US dollar increased by 0.20% against the Japanese yen, reaching 152.8850 [1] - The US dollar slightly rose by 0.01% against the Canadian dollar, at 1.3994 [1] - The US dollar gained 0.05% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.7956 [1]

编辑丨瑜见 数据公布后，美元指数短线跳水，现报98.77。 | W | | | 美元指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDX.FX | | | | | | 98.7780 | | 前收 | 98.9359 | | | 98.9306 | | | -0.1579 | -0.16% | 27 H | 98.7780 | | 买人 | 98.7780 | | | 最高 | 99.1004 | 今年来 | -8.94% | | 20 | 0.32% | | | 最低 | 98.7261 | 10 | -0.63% | | 60 | I -1.27% | | | 分时 | 五日 | HK | 周K | 月K | | 申文 | | | 晉加 | | | | | | 08:38 98.7604 | 0 | | 99.1457 | | | | 0.21% | | | | | | | | | | | 08:38 98.7615 | 0 | | | | | | | 08:38 98.7621 | | (3) | | 19 ...

| | | | 美元指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDX.FX | | | | 98.7780 | | 前收 | 98.9359 | 1 | 98.9306 | | -0.1579 | -0.16% | 英H | 98.7780 | 买入 | 98.7780 | | 最高 | 99.1004 | 今年来 | -8.94% | 20 1 | 0.32% | | 最低 | 98.7261 | 10 | -0.63% | 60 | -1.27% | | 书时 | 五日 | EK | 周K | 申文 | | | 督加 | | | | | | | 99.1457 | | | 0.21% | 08:38 98.7604 | | | | | | | 08:38 98.7615 | | | | | | | 08:38 98.7621 | | | | | | 0.00% | 08:38 98.7630 | 0 | | | | | | 08:38 98.7643 | 0 | | | | | | 08:38 98.7668 | 0 | | | | | ...

美联储政策预期方面，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月降息25个基点的概率为97.3%，维持利率不变 的概率为2.7%。美联储12月累计降息50个基点的概率为95.5%，累计降息75个基点的概率降至0%。 | 日期 | comex白银库存量(吨) | 增持/减持（吨） | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-23 | 15488.95 | -94.74 | | 2025-10-22 | 15583.69 | -87.26 | 此外持续的美国政府停摆（目前已进入第四周）继续给经济前景蒙上阴影，并推迟了关键数据的发布， 比如将于本周五发布的9月份消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。这种不确定性，加上持续存在的地缘政治 风险，可能会支撑避险需求，并有助于限制中期进一步下跌。 【要闻回顾】 10月23日，COMEX白银库存录得15488.95吨，较上一日减少94.74吨；comex白银周四（10月23日）收 报48.65美元/盎司，上涨0.98%，comex白银价格日内最高上探至49.23美元/盎司，最低触及47.64美元/盎 司。 另外，据市场调查显示，一项经济学家民意调查中，117位受访者中1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing slight upward movement, with current trading around 0.7961, reflecting a 0.10% increase from the previous day [1][2] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a year-on-year core inflation rate increase of 3.1%, up from the previous 2.9%, indicating steady growth in core data [1] - Monthly changes in overall and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The USD/CHF exchange rate is fluctuating narrowly around 0.7960 as investors await the release of U.S. inflation data for September [2] - The dollar index, which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, is trading around 99.00, indicating stability in the dollar's performance [2]