浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘 埃落定，9 月剑指重启降息？ 特朗普关税政策更新——"新关税框架"已浮现，仍需关注行业关税和 中美谈判。虽然印度、瑞士、加拿大和墨西哥尚未与美国达成协议，但 是随着美国接连和日本和欧盟两大贸易伙伴达成协议，以及新关税税率 的公布，关税政策的不确定性显著下降。然而，我们并不认为关税风险 已经完全化解。接下来行业关税和中美贸易谈判将会是美国关税政策不 确定性的重点所在：首先，自特朗普今年上任以来，美国商务部启动的 "232 调查"数量显著增加。短期来说，芯片和药品的调查结果和潜在 关税加征的影响不容小觑。中期来看，我们不能排除有更多行业被卷入 "232 调查"的可能性，这将继续牵动市场对关税问题的担忧，尽管整 体风险或已显著小于此前对"对等关税"全部实施的担忧。其次，中美 关税谈判或仍存在变数。中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的公布过程 较为曲折。 美国经济数据回顾——7 月通胀略微回升但符合预期；实体经济数据喜 忧参半。美国核心 CPI 通胀率 7 月微升。关税对商品价格的影响正在逐 渐显露，不过相对 6 月数据并未显著增强。7 月数据最为惹眼的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar is under pressure due to dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to expectations of interest rate cuts in September [1] - Market consensus anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a total of nearly 50 basis points by the end of the year, reflecting a shift in monetary policy [1] - Political uncertainty, particularly President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's policies, is contributing to the downward pressure on the dollar, raising concerns about the independence of the central bank [1] Group 2 - The dollar index is currently consolidating below the resistance level of 98.65, facing pressure from a descending trend line established from the late July high [2] - The index has found support around 97.90 and remains above the 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a short-term bullish momentum in the market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the December 2025 gold futures price dropping by $6.5 to $3410.7 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.19% [1] - Following a significant increase last Friday, the gold market has returned to a summer-like trading pattern, as the market has largely absorbed comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming [1] - Powell hinted at a potential interest rate cut as early as the September policy meeting, while also acknowledging the challenges posed by inflation rates remaining above the 2% target and signs of weakness in the labor market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, exerting additional pressure on gold prices, with the index rising by 0.73% to close at 98.430 [1] - Market analysts suggest that a sustained weakness in the dollar could continue to support gold prices, while concerns over potential government intervention and policy missteps may have a more significant impact on interest rates, the dollar, and gold [1] - Despite a reduction in global uncertainties and changes in trading flows, analysts believe that gold prices remain well-supported with limited downside risks [1] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are currently struggling to break out of a consolidation phase, with the $3400 level acting as a significant resistance point [2] - Silver futures for September delivery also saw a decline, dropping by $0.34 to close at $39.050 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.86% [2]

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.74% to 98.44, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies declined, with the euro falling by 0.87% to 1.1622 against the dollar [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.54% to 1.3455 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar dropped by 0.12% to 0.6484 [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated against the Japanese yen by 0.54%, reaching 147.7345 [1] - The dollar also rose by 0.23% against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3860 [1] - Additionally, the dollar strengthened by 0.56% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.8058 [1]

人民币对美元汇率日K线图 ◎记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡 自上周五美联储主席鲍威尔向全球市场"放鸽"之后，8月25日，在岸人民币对美元汇率强势上涨，开盘 连续升破多个关口，收盘报7.1517，较前一交易日收盘价上涨288个基点。 分析人士认为，人民币走强受美元指数回落、中间价大幅调升及资本市场情绪回暖等多重因素推动。展 望后市，美元指数走势仍是全球外汇市场的关键变量，但当前决定人民币汇率的核心因素仍是内生动 能。在内外因素共同影响下，"稳中有升""双向波动"仍将是人民币汇率走势的主基调。 多重因素支撑走强 8月25日，在岸人民币对美元汇率强势拉升，开盘即升破7.18、7.17两个关口，报7.1685；随后又连续升 破7.16和7.15两个关口；截至16时30分收盘，报7.1517，较前一交易日收盘价上涨288个基点，创2024年 11月以来收盘价新高；日内最高触及7.1480，创下近一个月来盘中新高。 分析人士认为，人民币汇率走强，受到美元走弱、中间价升值、股市走强等多重因素的支撑。 受美联储降息预期升温影响，美元指数大幅回落。鲍威尔当地时间8月22日在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 上表示"可能需要调整政策立场"，被广泛解 ...

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to 98, reflecting a daily increase of 0.18% [1]

格隆汇8月25日｜美元指数DXY向上触及98，日内涨0.18%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the document. 2. Report's Core View - The gold price is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern due to the mixed influence of the Fed's potential interest rate cut and the risk of inflation pressure from Trump's tariff policy [3]. - The copper price may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and limited downward space [15]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, while alumina is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35]. - The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with an increasingly obvious pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices [64]. - The nickel - related market is affected by multiple factors such as nickel ore price, downstream demand, and macro - level factors, and the stainless steel price may have a certain correction [80]. - The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile in the next week [95]. - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to enter a volatile consolidation stage, while the spot market sentiment is expected to remain strong [106]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be in bottom - level volatility in the short term, and the polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile and strong [115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Daily View**: Fed Chair Powell's signal of a potential interest rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased the market's expectation of a September rate cut to 85%, but the risk of inflation pressure from Trump's tariff policy may delay the rate - cut rhythm, leading to a short - term volatile gold price [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including prices, ratios, and spreads, are presented [4][9][12]. - **Long - term Fund Holdings**: The long - term fund holdings of gold and silver show certain trends [12][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are provided [14]. 3.2 Copper - **Daily View**: The Fed's meeting minutes have little impact on copper prices, but Powell's speech has boosted the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals. The copper price may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan per ton, and investors need to pay attention to relevant economic data [15]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are presented [16]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions are provided, along with import profit and loss and processing fee data [21][27]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME copper are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [32][33]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Daily View**: Aluminum prices have experienced a correction due to tariff policies, but low inventory and inventory reduction provide support, and the short - term trend is volatile and strong. Alumina has a weak fundamental situation and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are presented [37]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum spot in different regions are provided, along with relevant basis and spread data [50]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [59]. 3.4 Zinc - **Daily View**: The zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. The zinc price is mainly volatile in the short term, with an obvious pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices [64]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are presented [65]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot are provided, along with relevant basis and spread data [71]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME zinc are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [76]. 3.5 Nickel - **Daily View**: The nickel - related market is affected by factors such as nickel ore price, downstream demand, and macro - level factors. The stainless steel price may have a certain correction [80]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, changes, and change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are presented [81]. - **Related Data**: Various data such as nickel spot price, nickel ore price, and downstream profit are provided [86][88][90]. 3.6 Tin - **Daily View**: The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile in the next week, supported by the decline in social inventory and stable demand [95]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are presented [96]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot are provided [100]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME tin are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [102]. 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Daily View**: The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to enter a volatile consolidation stage, while the spot market sentiment is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the downstream production schedule in September [106]. - **Futures Data**: The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, including the closing prices of different contracts and the spreads between contracts, are presented [107]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related spot are provided [109]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of lithium carbonate, including warehouse receipts and social inventories, are provided [113]. 3.8 Silicon Industry Chain - **Daily View**: The industrial silicon market is expected to be in bottom - level volatility in the short term, and the polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile and strong [115]. - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon in different regions are presented, along with basis and spread data [116]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are presented [117]. - **Related Data**: Various data such as price charts, basis seasonality, and production and inventory data are provided [118][120][132]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are in a typical volatile convergence stage, and the market may break through the current range. The industry integration is expected to support the market [115]. - **Price Data**: The price trends of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and related products are presented [122][123]. - **Inventory and Cost Data**: The inventory and cost data of polysilicon are provided [138][141].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced an increase in the central parity rate of the RMB against the USD, indicating a strengthening of the RMB and potential positive market sentiment towards Chinese assets [1][5]. Exchange Rate Summary - The central parity rate for USD/CNY was set at 7.1161, up 160 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.1321, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1][2]. - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1517 against the USD, reflecting an increase of 288 points from the previous trading day [3]. - The Euro and Japanese Yen also saw changes against the RMB, with the Euro rising to 8.3446 (up 466 points) and the Japanese Yen to 4.8480 (up 249 points) [2]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the market's expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, which may lead to further appreciation of the RMB [5]. - According to招商证券, if the RMB continues to appreciate and the central bank maintains a market-driven policy, there is a possibility for the RMB exchange rate to return to the 6 range, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [6].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 【美元指数早盘微升，9月降息概率飙升】欧洲早盘交易中，美元指数对一篮子货币微升0.1%，至 97.762，在周五急挫至近四周低点97.556后企稳。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 讲话，为9月降息打开政策窗口，引发降息押注激增和美元跳水。 数据显示，利率期货市场定价表明， 9月降息概率从鲍威尔讲话前的约70%飙升至84%。德意志银行分析师在研报中指出，投资者会继续聚 焦美联储官员表态，其内部政策分歧或"仍然显著存在"。 ...