Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the USD/CAD is primarily a technical correction and profit-taking behavior ahead of the Canadian and Federal Reserve's policy decisions, rather than a signal of a trend reversal [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain interest rates, although recent economic data has shown divergence and trade uncertainties persist [3]. - There is an increasing expectation for a potential rate cut by the BoC, influenced by rising oil prices that support the Canadian dollar, which limits the upside potential for USD/CAD [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be a key variable for the short-term direction of the USD, with investors focusing on the Fed's guidance regarding future rate cuts [3][4]. - The USD index has recently rebounded from multi-year lows, but the market still expects future rate cuts from the Fed, which limits the upward momentum of the dollar [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the low-level rebound of USD/CAD is characterized by short-term profit-taking and correction, with prices stabilizing near mid-term moving averages [2][4]. - Key support levels are identified at recent lows and moving average convergence areas, while resistance is focused on key psychological levels and previous high-density areas [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The USD/CAD is currently in a low-level consolidation and range rebound pattern, with trend confirmation dependent on volume expansion and subsequent buying activity before the central bank policy outcomes are clear [4][5].

Group 1 - The core observation is that digital assets and safe-haven assets are experiencing a collective resonance driven by macroeconomic policies, with Bitcoin surpassing the $89,000 mark [1][2][3] - The immediate catalyst for this surge is the significant decline of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has fallen to around 95.80, marking a four-year low, influenced by President Trump's indifferent attitude towards the dollar's depreciation [1][2][3] - This macro-level policy signal has injected strong liquidity expectations into the market, leading to a 2.2% increase in Bitcoin within 24 hours, reaching a peak of $89,300, while gold prices surged 1.8% to a record of $5,215 per ounce [1][3] Group 2 - From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is showing significant bullish divergence, which historically indicates a strong reversal, with potential for a 10% subsequent return, suggesting Bitcoin may challenge the $95,000 resistance level in the short term [2][3] - The underlying logic of the market dynamics is shifting, and while there may be short-term volatility risks, the dual drivers of a weakening dollar and technical divergence are expected to enhance the asset hedging value of Bitcoin and gold, potentially initiating a new round of valuation recovery [4]

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月28日，ATFX：北京时间周四3：00，美联储将公布开年首次利率决议结果，3：30美联储主席鲍威尔 将召开货币政策新闻发布会。金融机构认为，美联储将会在本次利率决议上按兵不动，暂停加息。市场 关注焦点在于美联储新闻发布会期间对通胀、就业和2026降息次数的发言。 美元指数持续大跌可能影响美联储货币政策决议。美联储核心目标是维持物价稳定和充分就业，美元指 数的涨跌一般不会对利率升降产生影响。不过，此一时彼一时，美元指数过度的下跌一定会引起美联储 官员的注意。 如果美联储主席鲍威尔不对美元指数的下跌发表看法，可能引发市场失望情绪。不过，美国总统特朗普 已经表态，面对是否会干预汇市的提问，他表示：我希望（美元）回归自身应有的水平，这是合理的做 法；我可以让它像悠悠球一样涨跌。此番表态被解读为特朗普无意对美元指数的下跌进行干预。 1月19日至今，七个完整交易日，美元指数只有一个交易日收阳线，其余均为大幅度阴K线。美元指数 从最高点99.47猛跌至最低95.49，显著拉跌了市场人士此前对美元指数"触底反弹"的预期。 本轮美元指数下跌的原因，并不在于内部，而是来自外部。特朗普公开喊话夺取格 ...

2026年开年以来，人民币兑美元汇率持续上演强势行情，中间价时隔两年半再度突破7.0关键关口，市场对 后续汇率演绎路径高度关注。 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 1月28日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.9755，较前一交易日 大幅调升103个基点，延续了"破7"后的升值态势。在岸人民币兑美元收盘报6.9453，较上一交易日上涨 123个基点。 中间价震荡上行 回顾近期走势，人民币对美元汇率中间价呈现震荡上行特征。1月27日，中间价曾小幅调贬15基点至 6.9858。 2026.01. 28 本文字数：2223，阅读时长大约4分钟 关键的突破则发生在1月23日，当日人民币对美元中间价调升90基点至6.9929，单日升值幅度创下2025年 8月25日以来的最大值，这也是人民币中间价时隔32个月再度跨越7.0整数关口。 与中间价的稳步突破相呼应，在岸与离岸人民币汇率早在2025年末就已开启升值进程，相继突破7.0关口。 进入2026年后，两大市场汇率延续小幅升值态势，整体围绕6.9区间波动。 此轮人民币汇率的快速升值并非单一因素驱动，而是国际市场环境与国内供求关系共振形成的合力。 从 ...

| >国技期货 111 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月28日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金核心逻辑稳固，金银比大幅走低后白银风险较 高。特朗普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队,但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 以及明日凌晨美联储会议指引,美联储维持利率不变已形成共识,重点关注鲍威尔讲话。 铂纪盘面高波动,资金倾向短线操作,铂兜价格冲高回落,5日均线附近暂时止跌,大方向上看,资金逢低 做多倾向依然明显。铂把价差190元/ ...

ATFX：北京时间周四3：00，美联储将公布开年首次利率决议结果，3：30美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会。金融机构认为，美联储将会在本 次利率决议上按兵不动，暂停加息。市场关注焦点在于美联储新闻发布会期间对通胀、就业和2026降息次数的发言。 ▲ATFX图 行情方面，连续大跌后，美元指数已经跌破震荡区间下限96.18，昨日最低价触及95.49。此前双底结构形成的支撑位被突破后，美元指数下跌走势将再难找 到机构性的支撑位。图中通道线下轨也已经在1月26日被有效跌破，下跌加速迹象显著。短期内不建议保有抄底心理，顺势看空更理性。 ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点，不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考依 据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更新内容不会另行通知。 美元指数持续大跌可能影响美联储货币政策决议。美联储核心目标是维持物价稳定和充分就业，美元指数的涨跌一般不会对利率升降产生影响。不过，此一 时彼一时，美元指数过度的下跌一定会引起美联储官员的注意。 如果美联储主席鲍威尔不对美元指数的下跌发表看法，可能引发市场失望情绪。不过，美国总 ...

Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price bull market has accelerated, with a year-to-date increase of over 17%, surpassing the $5000 key level without significant pullback, instead consolidating in the $5050-$5100 range [1][9] - The driving factors for this trend include escalating geopolitical risks, such as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on South Korea, tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainties surrounding Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][9] - Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows are expected to drive demand, with central bank purchases projected to reach 950 metric tons by 2026, reinforcing the price support for gold [1][9] - Despite short-term uncertainties from Federal Reserve policies, expectations for interest rate cuts this year remain unchanged, with a weaker dollar and declining real interest rates enhancing gold's attractiveness [1][9] Federal Reserve Decision Impact - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a key event, with the market expecting rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Any divergence from this expectation could lead to significant market adjustments, although this would be seen as a temporary pullback within a long-term bullish trend [2][9] Technical Analysis of Gold - Recent price movements show a spike to $5111 before retreating below $5000, followed by a quick rebound, indicating healthy adjustments rather than a trend reversal. The strong consolidation in the $5050-$5100 range has set the stage for further upward movement [3][10] - The weekly chart indicates a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern, with a target range of $5300-$5400. The daily RSI is in the overbought zone, but the MACD remains bullish, suggesting continued upward momentum [3][10] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips, with support around $5080 and targets set at $5160-$5180, and potentially $5200 if the upward trend continues [3][10] Short-term Trading Strategy for Gold - The recommended short-term trading strategy is to primarily buy on dips, with secondary short positions. Key resistance levels are identified at $5190-$5210, while support is noted at $5140-$5120 [4][11] Oil Market Analysis - As of January 28, WTI crude oil is trading around $62.60 per barrel, having risen nearly 3% due to winter storms impacting U.S. oil production and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. However, there was a slight pullback to around $60.50 per barrel, indicating a need for technical correction after recent gains [5][12] - The market is currently balancing between fundamental support and expectations of supply recovery, with estimates showing a reduction of up to 2 million barrels per day in U.S. production due to winter storms [5][12] Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching $54.80, with a bullish medium-term outlook. However, short-term trends show a potential shift as prices have recently fallen below key moving averages [6][13] - The trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $64.0-$65.0 and support levels at $61.0-$60.0 [6][13]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years, primarily due to the strong rebound of the Japanese yen, which has intensified downward pressure on the global reserve currency [1][4] - The dollar index has declined for four consecutive trading days and has just experienced its worst week since April of the previous year, with a daily drop of 0.6% [1][4] - The weakening of the dollar reflects investor caution regarding the US government's erratic policy-making, with concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, rising fiscal deficits, and increasing political polarization in the US [1][4] Group 2 - The recent decline in the dollar is also attributed to signals from the US indicating support for a weak yen, leading to speculation that the US and Japan may coordinate market interventions to weaken the dollar against major trading partner currencies [1][4] - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, surpassing the 1.19 mark, the highest level since 2021, while the British pound has risen over 0.6%, reaching its highest point since July of the previous year [1][5] Group 3 - Dollar traders are currently facing the highest recorded costs to hedge against further declines in the dollar, with the premiums for short-term put options reaching the highest level since Bloomberg began tracking this data in 2011 [2][5] - There has been a significant increase in trading volume, indicating growing pessimism about the dollar's outlook, with the dollar trading volume on Monday reaching the second-highest level on record [2][5] - Despite recent economic data showing a robust performance of the US economy, traders expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting, although speculation about the new Fed chair's inclination to lower borrowing costs adds pressure on the dollar [2][5] Group 4 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for the remainder of the year, contrasting sharply with the expectations for other major central banks, which are likely to keep rates unchanged or even consider rate hikes [2][5] - The risk of a government shutdown is also increasing pressure on the dollar, as Democrats vow to block spending bills unless Republicans withdraw funding support for the Department of Homeland Security [2][5]

剑桥全球支付公司的首席市场策略师卡尔·沙莫塔（Karl Schamotta)表示，特朗普在关税政策上没有表现 出后悔迹象，美国政府可能再次陷入"停摆"的情况，经济政策不确定性再次大幅升高。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1979美元，高于前一交易日的1.1875美元；1英镑兑换1.3780美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3679美元。 新华财经纽约1月27日电（记者刘亚南）27日美元兑一揽子货币全面走低，美元指数当日持续走低，尾 盘时美元指数大幅下跌，降至近4年以来低点。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.84%，在汇市尾市收于96.219。美元指数随后进一步下 跌至95.55，为2022年2月中旬以来的低点。美元指数中权重最大的欧元兑美元汇率自2021年以来首次站 上1.20整数关口。 美国总统特朗普27日下午对媒体表示，自己不认为美元已经下跌过度，并对当前美元表现予以肯定。他 的这一表态进一步刺激美元指数快速下跌。 市场预期美国和日本官方在对交易商进行汇率核查后，可能联合对外汇市场进行干预。这一预期刺激日 元兑美元在近日大幅走强。 1美元兑换152.77日元，低于前一交易日的154.18日元；1美 ...

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is attributed to three main factors: the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the US government's fluctuating policies towards Europe, and heightened market vigilance regarding potential Japanese government intervention in the currency market [2] - Increased corporate demand for currency exchange towards the end of the year has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the Renminbi, particularly as previously accumulated demand from high export growth is being released [2] - Current high market sentiment is playing a significant role in supporting the Renminbi's strong performance, leading to its recent rise above the 7 mark against the dollar [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that long-term factors such as the Balassa-Samuelson effect do not support a significant appreciation of the Renminbi, and uncertainties in domestic demand may impact future growth [2] - Geopolitical changes are also expected to negatively affect China's external demand, which remains crucial for economic growth [2] - In the event of significant fluctuations in the Renminbi exchange rate that deviate from fundamental values, regulatory measures will likely be implemented to stabilize the market and manage offshore Renminbi volatility [3]