Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate indices have all declined, reaching their lowest levels since December 2020 and July 2023, indicating a weakening trend in the yuan against other currencies [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - CFETS yuan exchange rate index is reported at 95.58, down 0.38 week-on-week, marking the lowest since December 2020 [1] - BIS currency basket yuan exchange rate index stands at 101.23, down 0.35 week-on-week, the lowest since July 2023 [1] - SDR currency basket yuan exchange rate index is at 90.66, down 0.27 week-on-week [1] Dollar Performance - The US dollar has experienced a weekly decline of 0.24%, closing at 99.2, influenced by tariff policies and economic data [5] - Non-US currencies have generally appreciated against the dollar, with the euro rising 0.42% to 1.13, the British pound increasing by 0.54%, and the Australian dollar up 0.95% to 0.649 [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that despite strong US non-farm payroll data, the underlying trends indicate a slowing economy, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will not adopt a more hawkish stance, which will keep the dollar under pressure [5] - Goldman Sachs predicts a new phase of dollar depreciation, with overseas investors diversifying their investments away from US assets [5][6] Future Yuan Outlook - Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, suggesting that trade competitiveness will support a stronger yuan in the long term [6][7] - Deutsche Bank forecasts the yuan to appreciate to 7.0 against the dollar by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [8] - Goldman Sachs also anticipates a gradual rise of the yuan to 7.0 against the dollar over the next 12 months, supported by several factors including central bank interventions and improved export competitiveness [8] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,853 billion, an increase of $36 billion from the end of April, supported by improving economic conditions [9] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), marking a continuous increase for seven months [10]

Group 1 - The first key point is the upcoming China-US economic consultation meeting in the UK, indicating a potential resolution to previous negotiation issues, which may positively impact the A-share market expectations [1] - Morgan Stanley and HSBC are optimistic about Chinese stocks, predicting increased capital inflow over the next 6 to 12 months, highlighting that global investors currently have low exposure to Chinese stocks [1] - The expectation of a weaker US dollar and the profit growth of Chinese companies are driving interest in Chinese stocks, particularly offshore Chinese stocks like Hong Kong stocks, due to anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi [1] Group 2 - The emphasis on the importance of investing in Hong Kong stocks, with a belief that the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index will outperform A-shares in the long term [2] - The influx of foreign capital into Hong Kong stocks is significant, as foreign investors prefer to enter through the Hong Kong market due to its globalized nature and liquidity [2] - The changing global capital landscape, driven by a weakening US dollar and risks associated with high US debt, is expected to attract global funds to Chinese stocks, with Hong Kong as the entry point [2] Group 3 - The central bank's gold reserves increased to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, reflecting ongoing gold purchases as a risk hedge against the depreciating dollar and high US debt risks [4] - The global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves indicates a lack of confidence in the dollar and US debt, highlighting gold's scarcity as a valuable asset [4] - The expectation of stable or rising international gold prices suggests potential investment opportunities in gold, despite market fluctuations [4]

当地时间5日，英国《金融时报》发表文章称，美国政府发动关税战、贸易战，加之美国债务水平持续 飙升，导致全球大型机构投资者对美国资产的信心正在动摇，开始将资金撤出美国市场，转移至其他地 区。文章称，近期美国政府反复无常的贸易政策扰动全球市场，导致美元贬值，美国资本市场今年以来 的表现也远不及预期。此外，特朗普政府力推的"大而美"法案预计将使美国减少3.7万亿美元税收，在 未来10年增加2.4万亿美元赤字。这些因素促使机构投资者纷纷重新评估其在美国市场的持仓规模。(央 视新闻) ...

以下文章来源于日经中文网 ，作者日经中文网 日经中文网 . 世界资金已开始再次转向新兴市场国家资产。从股票和债券的资金流入流出额来看，5月份可能是8个月以来的首次正增长。巴西 股市等徘徊在高点区域。以美国特朗普政府的关税政策为契机，资金向美国境外转移的趋势启动，新兴市场国家也成为选项。美 元升值暂歇预期和央行下调利率的预期正在引起投资者的关注。 国际金融协会（IIF）每天统计非居民（海外投资者）的资金在多大程度上投入新兴市场国家股票和债券，将其作为衡量市场心理 的指标之一。5月截至22日为净流入100亿美元。如果截至月底仍保持正增长，将是美联储（FRB）时隔3年半决定降息的2024年9 月以来的首次。 从各国股价指数的动向来看，资金流入新兴市场国家股票的现象也很明显。巴西Bovespa指数5月20日创出新高。伊塔乌联合银行 (Itau UnibancoHolding SA)等主要大盘股起拉动作用。南非的所有股票指数也在5月23日再创新高。MSCI新兴市场指数（按当地 货币计算）比去年年底上涨5%，表现优于纳入发达经济体股票的全球指数。 资金流入新兴市场国家资产有两个原因。首先，投资者开始调整偏重于美国的资产结 ...

6月4日，美元指数下跌0.47%，跌破99的整数关口，收于98.8128。今年以来美元指数下跌8.90%，从4月初特朗普 实施对等关税谈判，到目前为止两个月美元指数下跌达4.59%。 美元的下跌可能不仅仅是降息预期，而是美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性更大。 现在关键的问题是，ADP的就业人数是就业市场的暂时性波动，还是更深层经济增长放缓缓的前兆，周五将发布 非农数据。如果非农数据证实就业疲软的趋势，美联储可能面临更大的政策调整压力，而市场对经济衰退的担忧 也将进一步加剧。 冉学东 6月4日，美国5月ADP就业人数增加3.7万人，为自2023年3月以来的最低水平，远逊预期的11.4万人，前值为6.2万 人。是自2022年8月以来最大的预期落空。 数据公布后，特朗普马上来凑热闹，因为这个数据正好支持他的一贯观点：ADP报告出来了！！"太迟先生"鲍威 尔现在必须降低利率。他令人难以置信！！欧洲已经降息九次！" ADP就业数据是美国自动数据处理公司定期发布的就业人数数据，主要反映的是私营企业的就业情况，不包括政 府机构，是判断美国宏观经济发展的重要指标。 同日发布的数据显示，美国5月ISM服务业PMI意外跌至49.9，跌破 ...

Group 1 - Bank of America Securities predicts emerging market assets are likely to achieve double-digit returns this year due to expectations of a continued decline in the US dollar [1] - The firm is particularly optimistic about Eastern European currencies and stocks, with Brazil being a preferred choice in fixed income due to its high interest rates and potential for rate cuts by year-end [1] - The US dollar is nearing a two-year low, with major Wall Street banks forecasting further weakness due to potential Fed rate cuts, slowing economic growth, and uncertainties in fiscal and trade policies [1] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 7% this year, ending a seven-year streak of underperformance, driven by stocks in China and India [2] - Despite positive returns in emerging market assets this year, investor holdings remain low, but this may change in the coming months as investors seek sustained upward trends [4] - The rebound in emerging market stocks is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar [4]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管美股已基本收复4月份因关税冲击造成的跌幅，美元的走势却远未恢复元气。 2025年以来，ICE美元指数已下跌约8.8%，跌至99以下，创下至少自上世纪80年代中期以来最疲弱的年 度开局。分析指出，美元的这轮走软不仅源于市场动荡，更反映出特朗普政府的贸易政策正在改变全球 投资者对美元在其资产配置中的定位。 在经历数年的强势上涨之后，美元正在遭遇一轮显著回调。法国巴黎资产管理公司的外汇投资组合经理 Peter Vassallo认为，"我们可能正进入美元的一个更长期下行阶段。虽然关税最坏情形的风险已下降， 美国政策的不确定性和对外贸易的敌意依旧存在。" State Street高级全球宏观策略师Marvin Loh也表示："美元确实有进一步下行的空间。"回顾历史，自 2002年起美元曾经历长达6年的贬值周期，彼时欧元强势崛起，如今类似的格局似乎正在重演。 当前支撑美元反弹的希望并不多，反而新的不确定因素仍在累积。例如，特朗普政府在其支付法案中提 出的第899条款，拟赋予白宫向外国投资者征收"复仇税"的权力，若这些投资者来自对美实行"不公平税 收政策"的国家。 一个更深层次的风险在于：投资者，尤 ...

每经记者｜宋欣悦 每经编辑｜高涵 ⑥【Q2营收预测低于预期，CrowdStrike盘前跌超6%】当地时间6月3日，网络安全公司CrowdStrike预 计，其Q2营收将介于11.4亿至11.5亿美元之间，低于分析师预期的11.6亿美元。截至发稿，CrowdStrike 跌6.2%。 ①【三大期指齐涨】截至发稿，道指期货涨0.15%、标普500指数期货涨0.18%、纳指期货涨0.13%。 ⑦【巴克莱上调标普500指数目标价】国际知名投行巴克莱周三将标普500指数的年终目标价从5900点上 调至6050点，理由是贸易不确定性有所缓解，以及预期2026年盈利增长将正常化。 ⑧【沃尔玛削减佛罗里达州部分工作岗位】沃尔玛正在佛罗里达州裁员，以应对美国最高法院最近关于 移民合法居留权的裁决。知情人士透露，公司已通知该州至少两家门店的一些员工，如果他们无法获得 新的工作许可，将失去工作。 ⑨【高盛首席亚太经济学家：预计美元将进一步贬值】高盛集团首席亚太经济学家Andrew Tilton预 计,"美元将进一步贬值。"他表示，按照高盛的汇率模型，美元相比长期公允价值仍被高估大约15%。 ②【热门中概股盘前普涨】热门中概股盘前普 ...

Group 1 - Mahathir expressed that the U.S. cannot prevent China's rise due to its capabilities and strength, which are comparable to Western countries [1][3] - He criticized Trump's policies, stating that they reflect a lack of serious consideration and are detrimental to both the U.S. and global stability [1][3] - Mahathir believes that the U.S. is unable to stop China's ascent, as China has existed far longer and is destined to become a leading global power [3] Group 2 - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are seen as an attempt to salvage U.S. global dominance by undermining China's economic foundation, but they have led to increased costs for American consumers [3][5] - Mahathir anticipates that Trump will have to cancel these tariffs within three months due to the pressure from other nations negotiating for lower rates [5] - Concerns were raised about the U.S. government's rising debt and its implications for the economy, with a shift in focus from tariff disputes to fiscal issues [7] Group 3 - The recent legislation in Florida recognizing gold and silver as legal tender is viewed as a challenge to the Federal Reserve's policies, reflecting a growing skepticism towards the dollar [5] - High-profile business leaders, including JPMorgan's CEO, have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the U.S. government's hardline strategies against China, advocating for cooperative solutions instead [7]

Group 1 - The recent surge in international gold prices, reaching a high of $3,400, is primarily driven by increased global trade and economic uncertainties, particularly in response to the U.S. government's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - The global financial market has seen a significant shift towards safe-haven assets, as evidenced by the simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, reflecting concerns over rising U.S. debt and the stability of the dollar [1] - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive months, leading to a record high in total assets under management (AUM) [1] Group 2 - Central banks worldwide have continued to purchase gold, with a net acquisition of 17 tons in March 2025, while only a few central banks, such as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Singapore, reported net sales [2] - The increase in gold prices is closely linked to the ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases, as the U.S. debt has surpassed $36 trillion, raising concerns about the monetization of U.S. debt [2] - The recent passage of a tax reduction bill by the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to exacerbate the fiscal deficit, further impacting gold prices [2] Group 3 - The current rise in gold prices signals a potential restructuring of the global monetary system, as the reliance on fiat currencies has increased since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [3] - There is a prevailing view that the U.S. government may be seeking to devalue the dollar to offset rising government debt, which could lead to unintended consequences from aggressive tariff policies [3] Group 4 - The volatility of gold prices is on the rise, as indicated by the increasing ratio of put options to call options, suggesting that the search for safe-haven assets will continue amid growing uncertainties [4]