Group 1 - Discussion among Federal Reserve officials regarding the extent of interest rate cuts [1] - Examination of the economic situation, particularly focusing on employment and inflation issues [1] - Deliberation on tariffs and fiscal policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness and market expectations during the critical fourth quarter of China's economic transition [1][2]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing investment and accelerating the issuance and utilization of land reserve and special infrastructure bonds, despite a low probability of adjusting budgets or issuing new government bonds [1]. - The need for timely enhancement of "two heavy" construction and central budget investment project lists is highlighted to support economic stability and achieve annual targets [2]. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is anticipated to maintain continuity and stability, with a focus on a loose monetary stance and ample liquidity, although the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter is low [2]. - There may be a potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in interest rates by 0.2 percentage points if necessary, alongside the lowering of operational thresholds for capital market support tools [2]. Demand Side Recommendations - Suggestions include lowering mortgage rates, optimizing personal housing tax incentives, and encouraging banks to increase loans to real estate developers [3]. - An additional 1 billion yuan for consumer goods trade-in subsidies is proposed to expand the subsidy range and enhance credit support for service consumption [3]. - Strengthening fiscal and financial support, optimizing tax refund services, and improving trade facilitation are recommended to assist foreign trade and affected industries [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying its fiscal policies to boost consumer spending, particularly through the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has allocated a total of 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support this initiative, contributing to a total of 300 billion yuan for the year [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Consumer Spending - The implementation of various fiscal policies, including personal consumption loan subsidies and new consumption scenarios, has significantly contributed to stabilizing and promoting economic growth [1][2] - The government has released approximately 4.2 trillion yuan in fiscal support for the "old-for-new" program, resulting in over 2.9 trillion yuan in sales across various goods [2][3] Group 2: Employment and Income Growth - The central government has prioritized employment, allocating 318.6 billion yuan in employment subsidies during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 29% increase from the previous plan, leading to over 50 million new urban jobs [2] - Enhanced social security measures, including childcare and elderly care subsidies, have reduced living costs, thereby increasing consumer confidence and spending capacity [2] Group 3: Quality of Supply and Consumer Environment - Recent initiatives by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce aim to improve the quality of supply and optimize the consumer environment through pilot programs in various cities, with funding ranging from 200 million to 400 million yuan [3] - The focus on creating innovative consumption scenarios and enhancing international service levels is expected to boost consumer confidence and market activity [3] Group 4: Overall Economic Impact - The combination of proactive fiscal policies is designed to address economic shortfalls, improve livelihoods, and expand domestic demand, thereby playing a crucial role in driving economic growth [4]

Group 1 - The UK service sector activity significantly slowed down in September, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 54.2 in August to 50.8, marking the lowest level in five months and nearing the threshold of economic contraction [1] - The slowdown is attributed to persistent high inflation and uncertainty regarding future policies, leading businesses and households to adopt a more cautious spending approach [1] - The UK government is facing a tight fiscal situation, with the Chancellor planning to announce the annual budget in late November, raising concerns about balancing fiscal deficit reduction and economic growth [1] Group 2 - Employment in the service sector has been experiencing layoffs for a year, reflecting a lack of confidence among businesses regarding future prospects [1] - The Bank of England faces uncertainty regarding monetary policy direction, with debates on whether to lower interest rates amidst fluctuating inflation rates [2] - The UK economy has been under pressure from high inflation, elevated interest rates, and unresolved trade tensions post-Brexit, indicating that future economic performance will heavily depend on government budget policies and central bank interest rate decisions [2]

Core Viewpoints - The current international situation is characterized by "four certainties" and "three uncertainties," impacting global capital flows and presenting structural challenges to the Chinese economy [2] - Domestic issues such as weak demand, structural overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and unstable expectations remain significant [3][4][5] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Infrastructure investment growth has declined, with fixed asset investment from January to August showing a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) down 2.0% [3] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with national commercial housing sales area in August down 11% year-on-year, and real estate investment from January to August down 12.9% [4] - Credit growth is notably weak, with July seeing a reduction of 500 billion yuan in credit, marking the first decline since July 2005, and the total new credit for January to August at 1.34 trillion yuan, the lowest in five years [5] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - It is recommended to advance next year's government investment quotas to stimulate demand, with a proposed early release of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in local government bonds [6] - Monetary policy should continue to signal positivity, with suggestions for a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.2% interest rate reduction [6] - The establishment of a "dynamic adjustment" mechanism for structural tools is advised to enhance efficiency and prevent fund idling [7] Group 3: Capital Market Support - Lowering the operational thresholds for capital market support tools is suggested, including reducing the interest rate for stock repurchase loans from 1.75% to 1.5% [8] - The recommendation includes expanding the range of institutions eligible for liquidity support and increasing the scale of the central financial company's assets to stabilize the capital market [8] Group 4: Real Estate and Housing Policies - A reduction in mortgage rates and optimization of housing tax policies are recommended, particularly in major cities, to stimulate housing demand [9][10] - The "white list" credit arrangement is currently at approximately 8.5 trillion yuan, which is about 60% of the existing development loan balance, indicating a need for increased credit support for real estate companies [10] Group 5: Consumer and Trade Support - An additional 1 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies is proposed, along with measures to enhance service consumption and lower re-loan rates [11][12] - Strengthening financial and fiscal support for foreign trade, including the establishment of emergency funds for affected enterprises, is recommended [13][14]

Group 1: Central Bank's Bond Purchase Overview - The central bank's bond purchases, known as "buying bonds," are a key monetary policy tool, with a balance of CNY 2.25 trillion in government bonds as of August 2025, accounting for 4.85% of total assets[2][11] - Historically, the central bank has engaged in three methods of bond purchases: cash transactions, rolling purchases of special government bonds, and repurchase transactions[2][16] - Current expectations for the central bank to resume bond purchases are rising due to liquidity needs and economic pressures, particularly in the context of slowing consumption and real estate declines[3][27] Group 2: Economic Context and Policy Coordination - Economic growth pressures remain, with consumption growth slowing to 3.4% year-on-year in August 2025, and fixed asset investment down by 7.1%[33][34] - The necessity for coordinated "wide monetary" and "wide fiscal" policies is increasing, as the government seeks to address debt and liquidity issues[3][27][38] - The central bank's recent meetings emphasize the importance of fiscal and monetary policy coordination to support economic stability[30][31] Group 3: Future Bond Purchase Signals - The central bank's bond buying operations have shown a pattern of increasing net purchases, with amounts of CNY 1,000 billion in August 2024, rising to CNY 3,000 billion by December 2024[28][29] - The central bank's asset-liability management indicates a need to extend the duration of government bonds held to stabilize the asset structure amid upcoming bond maturities[4][14] - The central bank's recent policy statements suggest a commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth through potential bond purchases in the near future[6][27]

Group 1 - In the third quarter, the bond market experienced fluctuations and a downward trend due to multiple factors including "anti-involution" trading, a rebound in risk appetite, and new regulations on fund redemption fees [1] - In July, signals of "anti-involution" were released, leading to rising inflation and expectations for incremental policies on the demand side, which put pressure on the bond market while commodities and stocks rose [1] - By August, "anti-involution" trading cooled down, and while the commodity market saw fluctuations, the stock market continued to rise, causing government bonds to decline further [1] Group 2 - In the fourth quarter, the remaining quota for local special bonds and government bonds is around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in supply pressure compared to the third quarter [2] - The potential incremental policy for the fourth quarter includes 500 billion yuan in policy financial instruments, focusing on supporting emerging industries and infrastructure [2] - The overall monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a focus on structural monetary policy to support key economic areas [2] Group 3 - The capital market in the third quarter was primarily driven by macro expectations, while the bond market's response to fundamentals was muted, following stock market fluctuations [3] - In October, favorable policies may continue to drive stock market gains, while the bond market may experience weak fluctuations [3] - After adjustments in the third quarter, bond market valuations have entered a reasonable range, improving the cost-performance ratio for allocations [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货延续低位震荡 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡整理，小幅下跌。政策面，央行三季度例会会提出 "建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济 金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏"。传递出货 币政策灵活发力的信号，短期内全面降息的可能性下降，后续关注货币政策 与财政政策的协同效应。不过由于 8 月经济数据表现偏弱说明内需有效需 求不足的问题仍存，9 月美联储启动降息使得人民币汇率端压力大大减小， 未来货币政策偏宽松的可能性较高，国债期货下方具有较强支撑。总的来 说，短期内上行动能与下行空间均较为有限，预计短期内国债期货以低位震 荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may break through its downward space in the fourth quarter. After experiencing multiple "stress tests" in the third quarter, the bond market has shown strong resilience. With the improvement of the bond market's adaptability to the strengthening of the equity market and the decline of the excessive trading of long - term bonds, a more rational pricing logic may dominate the market again, and the stable allocation demand will become the "ballast stone" for the interest rate to decline. The interest rate is expected to be in a "moderate" downward state [8][46]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Can the Bond Market Break Through the Sideways Trend in the Fourth Quarter? 3.1.1 The Bond Market Fluctuated Widely in September, with Bulls and Bears in a Fierce Battle and a Wavy Uptrend - The valuation yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has basically completed the anchoring to the "new bond". The spread between the new bond (250016) and the old bond (250011) is basically stable at 5 - 8BP, and the yield - to - maturity compensation due to value - added tax is about 2.8% - 4.5% [1][11]. - The capital interest rate fluctuated significantly due to the cross - quarter effect, and the central level increased to some extent. The increase in the central level of the capital interest rate led to an upward trend in the bond market interest rate and a compression of the Carry space, resulting in bond market selling pressure [1][14]. - The bond cashing demand of the bank's OCI account is one of the factors pressuring the bond market. From September 1st to 26th, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were the main sellers in the bond market [2][18]. - Regulatory policy adjustments and the increasing expectation of restarting treasury bond trading also drove the bond market trend. The "new rule" led to a rapid correction in the bond market in early September, while the increasing expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading supported the rebound in mid - September [2][21]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market May Break Through the Downward Space in the Fourth Quarter - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds weakened in September. If the equity market turns into a slow - bull pattern in the fourth quarter, the suppression on the bond market from the equity market may ease [3][23]. - The price level is still in the repair stage, with PPI bottoming out and rising, but CPI has not shown signs of recovery. If the economic recovery slope is lower than expected or Sino - US economic and trade relations deteriorate unexpectedly, there is still a possibility of another interest rate cut this year [5][28]. - From the supply side, the fourth quarter is usually the "off - season" for government bond supply, but attention should be paid to the possible advance issuance of the special bonds for replacing hidden debts in 2026. Even if the supply pressure increases, the impact on the market may be relatively controllable, and the central bank may use open - market operations for hedging [6][33]. - From the demand side, even if the "new rule" is implemented in the fourth quarter, its impact on the bond market is likely to be short - term and frictional, not a trend - based decline in demand. The demand from core bond - market allocators such as wealth management and insurance remains strong [7][40]. 3.2 Important Matters - The net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan in September. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a maturity scale of 300 billion yuan in September [48]. 3.3 Money Market 3.3.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From September 22nd to 26th, the central bank injected a total of 2.4674 trillion yuan through reverse repurchase operations, with a maturity of 1.8268 trillion yuan, and the net injection was 640.6 billion yuan. It is expected that 516.6 billion yuan of base money will be recalled from September 29th to 30th [50]. - The inter - bank liquidity was tight first and then loose last week, mainly due to the central bank's protection of liquidity. As of September 26th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by - 16.49BP, 3.78BP, - 14.62BP, and 2.17BP respectively compared with September 19th [54]. 3.3.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit showed a net outflow, with a net financing scale of - 188.79 billion yuan last week. The issuing scale of state - owned banks was the largest, but they also had the largest net outflow [59][63]. - The issuing interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit at all maturities showed an upward trend [64][67]. 3.4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply of interest - rate bonds was relatively small last week. The total actual issuance was 60.834 billion yuan, with a maturity of 9.2 billion yuan and a net financing of 51.634 billion yuan [68]. - In the secondary market, the bond market sentiment was relatively weak last week, showing an upward trend in the shock, and the curve shape became steeper. The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond and 10 - year CDB bond active bonds decreased, and the liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased [68][77]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally in August but was at a seasonal low year - on - year. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased last week, with an average of about 7.27 trillion yuan [94][99]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks increased their purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years and 5 - 10 years; rural commercial banks continued to sell but with a reduced intensity; insurance institutions continued to increase their holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds sold significantly [104]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is around 1.85% [107]. 3.6 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and wire rod futures decreased, while those of cathode copper, cement, and glass increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the BDI index increased [117]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased, and the vegetable wholesale price increased. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased [117]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.12 last week [117].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have seen divergences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation, reducing market risk appetite. Short - term index faces uncertainty due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - run, with policy support for the capital market unchanged, the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in Q4, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market may oscillate under the intertwined situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and if the stock market cools and allocation forces increase, the bond market may recover [7]. - For precious metals, short - term interest rate cut expectations are frustrated, but the Fed's mid - term easing pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially paying attention to the rising opportunity of silver prices [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to have a certain degree of support in price, with some showing a trend of shock - strengthening or shock - running, mainly affected by factors such as Fed interest rate policies, trade situations, and industry supply - demand [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are under downward pressure due to weak demand, and the iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens after the festival. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, and manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [31][33][39]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is weak in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term; crude oil has short - term uncertainties; and methanol's fundamentals are improving [52][54][56]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, the pig price is weak, the egg price may stabilize after a small decline. Bean and rapeseed meal are under short - term pressure, and the price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term [74][76][81]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. The NDRC plans to build a new computing power network infrastructure. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry. The SASAC held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises. The new energy storage market is short of cores [2]. - **期指基差比例**: IF, IC, and IM show different negative basis ratios for different contract periods, while IH has positive basis ratios in some cases [3]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry [5]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 4115 billion yuan [6]. - **策略观点**: The bond market may oscillate in Q4, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond relationship [7]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: Domestic and foreign precious metals had different price changes, and the positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly [8]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to go long on dips, especially for silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: Copper prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis. Import losses and refined - waste spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [13]. - **策略观点**: Aluminum prices have strong support below [14]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak [16]. Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices increased slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong [17]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices oscillated, with changes in spot prices and costs [18]. - **策略观点**: Short - term observation is recommended, and long on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [18]. Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices oscillated, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [19]. - **策略观点**: Tin prices may continue to oscillate, and observation is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: Carbonate lithium prices had different changes, and the price of lithium concentrate was stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Carbonate lithium futures may oscillate within a range [22]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [23]. - **策略观点**: Observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [25]. - **策略观点**: Stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short - term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **策略观点**: Futures may be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [30]. - **策略观点**: Steel prices may be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: Iron ore prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **策略观点**: Short - term iron ore prices may be strong, but may adjust downward after the festival if downstream demand weakens [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: Glass and soda ash prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [34][36]. - **策略观点**: Glass can be considered slightly bullish in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [35][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [38]. - **策略观点**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend, and manganese - silicon may have potential driving factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices had a small increase, with changes in inventory and basis [41][44]. - **策略观点**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon prices may decline in the short - term [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: Rubber prices were weak, with factors such as expected state reserve sales and weather affecting the market [47]. - **策略观点**: Mid - term bullish, short - term weak, and observation is recommended after the festival [52]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: Crude oil and related product prices increased, with changes in inventory [53]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainties exist, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and observe [54]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: Methanol prices had small changes, with changes in basis [55]. - **策略观点**: The fundamentals are improving, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [56]. Urea - **行情资讯**: Urea prices declined slightly, with changes in basis [57]. - **策略观点**: Low - valuation and weak - driving, long positions can be considered on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [58]. - **策略观点**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and observation is recommended [59]. PVC - **行情资讯**: PVC prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [60]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: Ethylene glycol prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **策略观点**: In the short - term, inventory may be low, but it will accumulate in the fourth quarter, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [63]. PTA - **行情资讯**: PTA prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is complex, and observation is recommended [65]. Para - Xylene - **行情资讯**: PX prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [66]. - **策略观点**: PX may accumulate inventory, and observation is recommended [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: PE prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [68]. - **策略观点**: PE prices may oscillate upward [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: PP prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [70]. - **策略观点**: PP is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high [71]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price fluctuated slightly, with most areas seeing a decline [73]. - **策略观点**: The pig price may be weak, and short - term short positions on near - month contracts and reverse spreads are recommended [74]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was stable with a small decline in some areas [75]. - **策略观点**: The egg price may stabilize after a small decline, and short - term observation is recommended [76]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The price of US soybeans oscillated, and the domestic bean meal price was stable. The supply - demand situation was complex [77]. - **策略观点**: Short - term pressure exists, and in the medium - term, the market is expected to oscillate [78]. Edible Oils - **行情资讯**: The price of edible oils rebounded, and the supply - demand situation in Malaysia and Indonesia had different changes [79][80]. - **策略观点**: The price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term, and long positions can be considered on dips [81]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar price declined slightly, and the supply - demand situation in major producing areas is expected to change [82]. - **策略观点**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, and observation is recommended before the festival [83]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton price declined, and the supply - demand situation was complex [84][85]. - **策略观点**: The cotton price is affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [86].