Core Viewpoint - The unexpected shift in Trump's stance regarding high tariffs on China, acknowledging them as excessive and proposing significant reductions contingent on China's agreement to U.S. conditions, marks a pivotal moment in U.S.-China trade relations [1][5][9]. Economic Context - The U.S. federal debt is projected to exceed $36 trillion by 2025, with public debt accounting for approximately $29 trillion. The government faces an interest repayment of $1 trillion this year against an expected revenue of $5 trillion, leading to a tense fiscal situation [3]. - The U.S. trade deficit is expected to surpass $1.2 trillion by 2024, exacerbated by high tariffs that have increased import costs for consumers and businesses, resulting in a 1.4% reduction in market income [11][18]. Trade Relations and Tariff Adjustments - The tariff conflict escalated from an initial 10% tariff on China to as high as 145%, with retaliatory measures from both sides. A temporary agreement was reached in May, reducing U.S. tariffs to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10% [7][13]. - Despite the agreement, Trump retains a portion of the original high tariffs and emphasizes the need for China to increase purchases of U.S. goods and address trade imbalances [11][18]. International Relations and Strategic Moves - Japan's refusal to halt the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds adds pressure on the U.S. financial situation, prompting Trump to seek a resolution with China [5][12]. - The U.S. military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, involving allies like Japan and Australia, are seen as a strategy to maintain pressure on China while negotiating trade terms [9][14]. Future Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are complicated by the U.S.'s significant debt burden and the need for economic stability. China's economic resilience and commitment to mutual benefit in trade negotiations position it favorably in the ongoing discussions [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

欧盟最后一退，特朗普加码15%关税！德高官怒吼：要战便战 当欧盟贸易专员谢夫乔维奇结束六赴华盛顿的谈判，带回美国接受10%基准关税的乐观预期时，布鲁塞 尔的官员们以为终于躲过了贸易战的子弹。然而仅仅一周后，白宫传来的新条件如一盆冷水：特朗普要 求欧盟接受15%甚至更高的基准关税，否则8月1日起全面启动30%关税。 "所有选项都摆在桌面上。"一位德国官员面对《华尔街日报》的镜头语气冰冷，"如果他们想要战争， 他们会得偿所愿。" 步步紧逼：10%的妥协如何喂大了特朗普的胃口 四个月来，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的"谈判策略"已成固定剧本：先强硬表态，再火速让步。7月，她 刚宣称"必将采取一切必要反制"，却在24小时内突然推迟了价值210亿欧元的对美报复性关税，姿态柔 软得令人咋舌。 欧盟的妥协清单曾显得诚意十足： - 承诺采购数百亿美元美国能源与半导体 - 在汽车关税上主动提出"归零方案"（只要美国降至20%，欧盟就取消美国汽车10%关税） - 德国车企甚至设计出复杂的"出口抵进口"机制换取豁免 汽车产业是德国的生死线：2023年欧盟对美汽车出口额高达580亿美元，支撑着1400万个就业岗位。大 众、宝马等巨头已发出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The report assesses the copper market as having a neutral to slightly bullish bias based on various factors. The overall expectation is that copper prices will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals show that smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79620 with a basis of - 80, indicating a discount to the futures price, considered neutral [3]. - Inventory data on July 21 shows a decrease of 100 tons to 122075 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3094 tons to 84556 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is trending upwards, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, also bullish [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The report mentions that domestic policy easing is a potential positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative factor [4]. Spot - The report provides information on spot prices including the location, middle price, and price changes, as well as inventory details such as type, total quantity, and quantity changes [7]. 期现价差 - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [8]. Exchange Inventory - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [12]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [18]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - The report presents the China annual supply - demand balance sheet for copper from 2018 to 2024, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide explicit industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as "anti - involution", supply - demand dynamics, and external trade risks. Different commodities show various trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [12][39][47]. - Some commodities are expected to follow the overall strength of the commodity market driven by "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization, while others are restricted by their own supply - demand fundamentals [12][60]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Price rose on the 21st. A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China plans to shut down for maintenance tomorrow. It is expected to be in a state of tight supply - demand. Suggested to go long on PX unilaterally and roll - over long on the spread. Keep an eye on the long PX and short EB/EG positions [6][12]. - **PTA**: In a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, it is a unilateral sideways market. The processing fee is hard to improve. The supply is loose, and it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern [12]. - **MEG**: The spread is weak, and it unilaterally follows the overall strength of the commodity market. The supply is relatively loose, and the upward space of the unilateral price is limited due to weak polyester demand [13][14]. Rubber - The price is oscillating strongly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Influenced by macro - positives, cost, and产区 weather, the bullish sentiment is strong [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policies, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals. In the medium - term, there is pressure on the fundamentals [19][21]. Asphalt - It is oscillating repeatedly. The production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly [22][37]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. Although the inventory was low before, it is gradually moving towards inventory build - up [38][39]. PP - The spot price rose slightly, and the trading was light. The futures price increase boosted the market sentiment, and the cost support strengthened, but the downstream procurement was cautious [43][44]. Caustic Soda - It is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increasing power, but strong cost support due to weak liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for the peak season [46][47]. Pulp - It is oscillating strongly. The market shows a differentiation of futures premium and spot price stagnation. The supply pressure is still there, and the demand support is limited [50][52]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has risen slightly recently, and the production and sales in most regions are acceptable [54][55]. Methanol - It is running strongly. The spot price index increased. It is expected to follow the strength of the commodity market in the short - term, with a neutral short - term fundamental [57][60]. Urea - It is running strongly in the short - term. The inventory decreased this week. It may follow the strength of the commodity market. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in late July, but there is pressure from the end of domestic agricultural demand [62][64]. Styrene - The "anti - involution" sentiment is strong, and it is strong in the short - term. It is currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, mainly for short - allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated inventory build - up stage [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price oscillated upwards, and some enterprises controlled orders. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly and the low price may rise [67]. LPG - It is oscillating weakly in the short - term. The 8 - month and 9 - month Saudi CP expectations decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [71][78]. PVC - It is strong in the short - term but still has pressure above. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term, and the export sustainability needs to be observed [81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session weakened slightly, and it is mainly in a short - term sideways trend. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market remained weak [86]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is recommended to short at high prices for the October contract and hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [88].

路透社援引一份总统令草案称，巴西将在北京设立这一办公室。同时，相关筹备文件提到双边贸易"日 益复杂"，以及加强税收和海关事务合作的必要性。 【环球网报道 记者 李梓瑜】据路透社当地时间21日独家报道，在巴中两国深化双边关系之际，巴西财 政部表示，巴西将在中国设立一个税务咨询办公室。报道称，在美国总统特朗普的关税政策加剧全球紧 张局势背景下，此举凸显巴西越来越重视与其第一大贸易伙伴——中国的关系。 报道提到，上述举措正值美国和巴西间的贸易紧张局势加剧之际。此前，特朗普在社交媒体上公布致巴 西总统卢拉的信函，称将自8月1日起对从巴西进口的商品征收50%关税，同时要求巴西政府停止对前总 统博索纳罗的司法调查。卢拉7月17日发表公开讲话称，巴西不接受特朗普利用关税进行勒索，巴西社 会各界将团结一致捍卫巴西主权。 路透社称，自2009年以来，中国一直是巴西最大贸易伙伴。当被问及为何巴西现在在中国设立税务咨询 办公室时，巴西财政部否认这与"贸易战"有任何关联。该部门称，"没有任何政治动机"，并表示这一举 措反映了双边贸易的重要性，以及在税收和海关问题上加深合作的必要性。 公开资料显示，截至2023年，中国连续15年成为巴 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Germany's sudden shift in attitude towards the U.S., indicating a deterioration in U.S.-EU relations amidst a global trade war [1][3] - Germany's strong response is not an isolated act but reflects the EU's collective reaction against the U.S. policies, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products [3][4] - The EU is actively seeking diversified strategic partnerships, with cooperation with China becoming a key element in countering U.S. trade protectionism [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming visit of EU leaders to China signals a significant move towards strategic autonomy and reducing dependence on the U.S. [3][4] - The EU's changing stance towards China is a response to disappointment with U.S. unilateralism, indicating a desire for a more independent position in global trade [4][6] - For successful cooperation with China, Europe needs to demonstrate sincerity and take concrete actions to rebuild bilateral relations and mutual trust [6]

Fundamental Analysis - The trade war between the US and EU is intensifying, with Trump threatening to impose tariffs of up to 30% on EU products starting August 1, which has raised concerns about the potential breakdown of trade negotiations and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have risen to 59%, with October rate cut expectations fully priced in, contributing to gold's appeal amid policy uncertainty [3] - Key events to watch include speeches from Bank of England officials and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which may influence market sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The daily trend for gold is currently characterized as "strongly bullish," with a significant upward movement observed on Monday, indicating short-term bullish momentum [4] - Key support levels identified are 3365-3360 and 3345, which are critical for maintaining the bullish trend [4][5] - Resistance levels are noted at 3420 and 3428, with a breakthrough of these levels potentially opening up further upside for gold prices [5][6] Short-Term Outlook - The four-hour analysis confirms a continuation of the bullish trend, with critical support at 3377-3374, which needs to hold for the bullish momentum to persist [8] - The first resistance level to monitor is around 3408-3410, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [8] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases and events to monitor include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting minutes, UK economic stability report discussions, and US manufacturing index data [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. is eager to engage in business with China, while the "100-day visit to China" plan has failed, leading to increased tensions with tariffs being raised against China [1][3] - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for three consecutive months, with reductions of $173.2 billion, $50.8 billion, and $57.3 billion, aimed at protecting its wealth and adjusting its overseas asset structure [3] - The U.S. Commerce Department has decided to impose a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on Chinese graphite, which, when combined with existing tariffs, will result in a total tariff of 160%, significantly impacting the electric vehicle industry [7][11] Group 2 - Trump's recent actions, including the signing of a fentanyl control bill, reflect a dual strategy of testing China's response while attempting to maintain a friendly dialogue [5][12] - The imposition of high tariffs on graphite and the ongoing issues with rare earth materials indicate a broader strategy to undermine China's competitive advantage in critical materials for electric vehicles [7][12] - The potential for a trade war and rising inflation in the U.S. could lead to significant economic repercussions, particularly if the U.S. Treasury market faces instability [3][12]

Group 1 - The Brazilian stock index rose by 0.59%, while the Brazilian real appreciated by 0.22% against the US dollar, closing at 5.5673 reais [1] - Brazilian President Lula stated that there is currently no tariff war between Brazil and the United States [1] - The potential for a trade war exists if US President Trump does not change his attitude towards Brazil [1]