Performance Review - Ningbo Bank's 1Q25 performance met expectations with revenue growth of 6% year-on-year, pre-tax profit growth of 2%, and net profit growth of 6% [1] Development Trends - The pace of scale expansion accelerated, with total assets, loans, and deposits growing by 18%, 20%, and 20% year-on-year, respectively, faster than previously expected [2] - In 1Q25, new loans comprised 86% corporate loans, 17% bill discounts, and -3% personal loans, while new deposits were 84% corporate deposits [2] - Net interest margin narrowed to 1.80%, down 10 basis points year-on-year and 9 basis points quarter-on-quarter, with asset yield declining by 48 basis points year-on-year to 3.62% [2] - Non-interest income decreased, with net fee income down 1% and other non-interest income down 7% due to losses from trading financial assets [2] Cost Control - Operating expenses decreased by 3% year-on-year, with the cost-to-income ratio dropping to 29% [3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with an estimated NPL generation rate of 1.14%, slightly up by 6 basis points quarter-on-quarter [3] - Tax expenses decreased year-on-year, enhancing net profit growth to 6% despite a lower pre-tax profit growth rate [3] Tax and Trade Impact - The increase in the tax rate for 2024 is attributed to the bank's strategy of writing off bad loans before disposal [4] - The impact of tariff increases is manageable, with minimal exposure to businesses directly affected, and potential effects mainly on future credit demand and client transaction income [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025E/2026E remains largely unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to 0.72x/0.65x 2025E/2026E P/B [5] - The target price is maintained at 30.73 yuan, corresponding to 0.88x/0.80x 2025E/2026E P/B, indicating a potential upside of 23.1% from the current stock price [5]

存贷增速均边际上升，资负结构更加均衡 光大银行2025Q1 末贷款本金总额4.11 万亿元，较年初增长5.24%，增速高于2024年四个季度，贷款放 量有所加快。吸收存款方面，2025Q1 末存款余额为4.27 万亿元，同比增加3.49%，逆转了2024Q2-Q4 连续三个季度的同比负增长，资负结构更加均衡，更好匹配贷款的增长。高息存款收紧后，2024 年光 大银行存款成本率同比下降14BP 至2.18%，部分对冲了资产端收益率下降的影响，预计随着存款增长 加快，负债压力减轻，净息差降幅或继续收窄。 不良率环比持平，高分红+低估值属性较强 营收结构改善，利润增速保持平稳 光大银行2025 年一季度实现营收330.86 亿元（YoY-4.06%），营收降幅边际收窄；归母净利润124.64 亿 元（YoY+0.31%），盈利增速相对平稳。收入结构更加均衡，2025Q1 单季实现净利息收入225.38 亿元 （YoY-6.84%），虽同比下降但降幅较2024 年全年有所收窄；2025Q1 单季实现非息收入105.48 亿元 （YoY+2.46%），主要中收和投资净收益均同比正增长贡献。考虑到实体需求有待恢复、银行业 ...

信贷增速继续回升，净息差收窄压力有望缓解。截至25Q1，总资产、贷款总额同比增速为6.8%、 6.0%，环比-0.1pct/+0.4pct，贷款增速已连续三个继续持续回升，对公贷款对25Q1 信贷投放支撑力度进 一步增强。24 年净息差1.5%，较23 年收窄17BP，较24H1 收窄6BP，伴随存款久期结构改善以及重定 价，25 年计息负债成本率改善空间或更为可观（24 年下降14BP），缓解净息差收窄压力。 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 资产质量保持平稳，内生增长支撑分红比例继续提升。截至25Q1，不良率与年初持平，关注率环比 +21BP（24 年末较24Q3 -8BP），测算不良净生成率0.5%，较24Q1/24 年末下降46BP/23BP。截至24 年 末，对公贷款不良率较24H1 下降1BP，主要是加大房地产不良核销处置的结果，同时个贷不良率持平 于24H1。截至25Q1，拨备覆盖率、拨贷比分别较年初下降13.1pct 和11BP。24 年全年分红比例（归母 净利润口径）从中期分红的33.1%进一步抬升至33.9%，是核心一级资本充足率足够厚实以及内源资本 补充能力较 ...

事件: 对公及个人存款在付息率大幅下降的同时保持较高增速，或与公司精进交易银行、巩固养老金融优势等 有关。2025Q1 人民币公司存款同比增长5.0%，付息率为1.51%，同比下降31bps；人民币个人存款同比 增长5.5%，付息率1.90%，同比下降32 bps。公司助力国资国企司库管理体系建设，服务司库客户6507 户，较2024 年末增长5.24%。2025Q1 公司养老金代发获客量同比增长10.30%，截至2025 年一季度末总 规模保持上海地区养老金客户份额第一。 关注类贷款占比下降，拨备覆盖率、拨贷比双增。2025Q1 不良率较上年末持平，仍为1.18%；关注类 贷款占比较上年末下降1bp 至2.05%。拨备覆盖率较上年末提升1.43pct 至271.24%，拨贷比较上年末环 比提升2bps 至3.20%。 盈利预测和投资评级：上海银行负债端成本大幅下行，净息差同比平稳，反映公司交易银行与养老金融 的综合实力。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。我们预测2025-2027 年营收为541、555、570 亿元，同比增 速为2.02%、2.74%、2.63%；归母净利润为244、249、256亿元，同比增速 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a solid growth in net interest income and a double-digit increase in total profit for Q1 2025, with revenue, PPOP, and net profit growth rates of 1.4%, 3.8%, and 6.25% year-on-year respectively [1] - The company’s asset expansion capability was validated in Q1 2025, with total assets and loan amounts growing by 8% and 6.8% year-on-year respectively [2] - The company forecasts a steady growth in net profit for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 5.5%, 7.9%, and 8.5% respectively [3] Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, net interest income grew by 5.6% year-on-year, supported by a robust net interest margin and strong asset expansion [1] - Fee income continued to decline at -3.2% year-on-year, although it improved by 6.8 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] - Other non-interest income saw a significant decline of -16.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a notable pullback in the bond market [1] Asset Quality and Structure - The company maintained a stable asset quality with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.17%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the end of 2024 [2] - The provision coverage ratio remained stable at 363%, providing ample profit space [2] - The company’s financial investment structure has shifted significantly over the past three years, with OCI's share increasing from 18.4% at the end of 2022 to 40.9% in Q1 2025 [1] Future Projections - The company projects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.05, 1.13, and 1.23 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 11.85, 12.70, and 13.62 [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.57X, 0.53X, and 0.50X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - Given the strong regional financing demand, the company maintains a 10% valuation premium compared to peers, projecting a reasonable value of 7.6 yuan per share for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Jiangsu Bank (600919.SH) [4] Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's net interest income saw a significant increase of 22% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 16.6 billion yuan, driven by rapid asset growth and optimized liability costs [2][3] - The bank's asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.86% and a provision coverage ratio of 343.51% as of Q1 2025 [2][3] - The bank's non-interest income experienced a decline of 32.72% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in fair value changes, although investment income increased by 30.1% [3] Summary by Sections Performance - In Q1 2025, Jiangsu Bank reported a revenue growth of 6.21%, PPOP growth of 7.88%, and a net profit growth of 8.16% compared to the previous year [1][11] - The bank's total assets reached 4.46 trillion yuan, with total deposits of 2.46 trillion yuan [11] Non-Interest Income - The bank's net fee and commission income grew by 21.77% year-on-year in Q1 2025, benefiting from a recovery in the capital market and macroeconomic conditions [2][3][29] Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The bank's interest-earning assets grew by 27.82% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 18.83% [2] - The net interest margin showed a slight decline but was supported by effective cost management on liabilities [2][3] Capital and Shareholder Information - Jiangsu Bank's return on equity (ROE) was reported at 16.50% for Q1 2025, with a target price of 10.13 yuan per share [4][27] - The bank's major shareholder is Jiangsu International Trust Co., holding a 6.98% stake [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shengjing Bank is struggling to transform itself two years after shedding its "Evergrande system" identity, facing significant historical burdens and declining financial performance, with a strategic goal of "stabilizing growth, improving quality, increasing efficiency, and enhancing effectiveness" for 2024 [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Shengjing Bank reported revenue of 8.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 621 million yuan, down 15.21%, marking the fourth consecutive year of revenue and profit decline [2] - The bank's net interest margin was only 0.8%, down 16 basis points year-on-year, significantly lower than the average for commercial banks and city commercial banks, which were 1.52% and 1.38% respectively [4][3] - Total interest-earning assets decreased by nearly 70 billion yuan to 8555.16 billion yuan, a decline of 7.5% year-on-year, with a significant gap between interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities [5] Asset Quality and Loan Performance - As of the end of 2024, Shengjing Bank's total assets grew by 4% to 1.12 trillion yuan, with loans issued amounting to 500.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [9] - The bank's corporate loans, which account for over two-thirds of its credit portfolio, reached 337.88 billion yuan, growing by 9.67% year-on-year, while personal loans showed mixed performance with a notable increase in personal consumption loans [10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for personal loans was 2.9%, with mortgage loans having a particularly high NPL ratio of 3.66% [12][11] Non-Interest Income - Shengjing Bank achieved non-interest income of 1.69 billion yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 44% year-on-year, attributed to improved investment trading capabilities [7] Market Performance and Shareholder Sentiment - The bank's stock price in the Hong Kong market has been underperforming, trading around 1.06 HKD per share, significantly lower than its initial listing price of 7.65 HKD in 2014, with liquidity issues evident as trading volumes dropped to zero during certain periods [15] - The number of H-share shareholders has dwindled to just 124, reflecting market skepticism regarding the bank's future profitability and growth prospects [15] Strategic Direction - Shengjing Bank is actively pursuing a "de-Evergrande" strategy, having removed references to Evergrande from its annual reports since 2023, and has undergone significant management restructuring to align with its vision of becoming a "good bank for enterprises and the public" [16][17]

图片来源 | AI制图 近日，江苏银行发布年报，2024年，营收808.15亿元，同比增长8.78%；归母净利润318.43亿元，同比增长 10.76%。增速与城商行前三甲中的其他两家北京银行和宁波银行相比，都是最高的。 从近十年数据看，江苏银行也是上市城商行乃至上市银行中，业绩成长性最强的一家之一。江苏银行的高 成长性，应该说跟两任董事长夏平和葛仁余高度相关。 这二位在三家银行里搭档了十余年。2013年3月，原南京银行行长夏平就任江苏银行董事长，同年8月，南 京银行信息技术部总经理葛仁余也加盟江苏银行，任首席信息官、信息技术部总经理。这是二人的第三次 搭档。早年夏平和葛仁余均任职于建行江苏分行，此后又都到南京银行任高管。夏平执掌江苏银行十年， 将江苏银行一路带成了国内营收与利润首屈一指的城商行。在2023年，60岁的夏平退休，葛仁余从行长位 置上升任董事长。到2025年，1965年10月出生的葛仁余也临近退休，江苏银行业绩依旧出色。 除了营收与利润增长不错，资产扩张和负债均保持了较快的增长，不良率与2023年持平，拨备覆盖率维持 在较高水平。 不过美中不足的是，江苏银行净息差下滑较多，是已披露年报的头部城商 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent restrictions by banks on early repayment of housing loans indicate a shift in their lending strategies, aimed at managing profitability amidst declining net interest margins and increased early repayment requests [1][5][10]. Group 1: Banking Pressure - Banks are facing a dual pressure of reduced lending opportunities and increased deposits, leading to a shrinking net interest margin, which is currently at 1.52%, below the warning line of 1.8% [5][10]. - In February, the People's Bank of China reported a decrease of 115 billion yuan in long-term loans, indicating a trend of borrowers opting for early repayments [6][10]. - The total balance of personal housing loans was 37.68 trillion yuan at the end of last year, down 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting a growing number of borrowers repaying loans early [6][10]. Group 2: Changes in Loan Terms - Banks have implemented restrictions on the number of early repayment requests and the amount that can be repaid at once, with some banks limiting online repayments to two times a year and a maximum of 200,000 yuan per transaction [1][10]. - The average interest rate for existing housing loans has dropped from 4%-5% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024, further squeezing bank profits [10]. - The increase in early repayments is causing banks to lose significant future interest income, with one insider noting that every 1 million yuan repaid early results in a loss of interest income for several years [10]. Group 3: Deposit Trends - There has been a significant increase in household deposits, with new deposits reaching 14.26 trillion yuan in 2024, and 6.2 trillion yuan in just the first two months of this year [10]. - The total balance of household deposits has surpassed 157 trillion yuan, with per capita deposits exceeding 110,000 yuan, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than borrowing [10]. Group 4: Strategies for Borrowers - Borrowers are advised to understand their loan agreements, as restrictions on early repayment may vary by bank and region [16]. - Exploring offline repayment options may provide more flexibility, as these channels are less restricted compared to online methods [18]. - A rational decision-making process is recommended for borrowers considering early repayment, comparing the interest rates of their loans with potential investment returns [19][21].

类似情况并非个例，记者梳理发现，4月以来多家民营银行密集宣布下调存款利率，部分银行5年期存款 利率跌至2.5%以下，且长短期"倒挂"。此外，部分机构月内已进行了两至三次利率下调动作。 部分银行三年期、五年期利率"倒挂" 记者梳理发现，4月以来，多家民营银行密集下调存款利率，其中部分机构已进行了两至三次下调动 作。 例如，华瑞银行本月针对中长期限的存款利率已进行了三次调整。4月1日起，该行五年期存款利率由 2.7%调整至2.65%，随后在4月16日调整至2.55%，最新公告显示，4月28日起五年期存款利率将进一步 下调至2.4%。此外，该行三年期存款利率也在4月16日由2.7%下调至2.6%，并将在4月28日起进一步下 调至2.5%。最新调整后，该行三年期存款月内累计下调20BP，五年期月内累计下调30BP，三年期和五 年期利率出现"倒挂"。 每经记者 李玉雯 每经编辑 张益铭 4月27日，华瑞银行公告称，自次日起调整部分期限存款挂牌利率，其中整存整取三年期、五年期分别 调整为2.5%、2.4%，较此前分别下调10BP、15BP。记者注意到，本月以来，该行已三次调整存款利 率，调整集中在三年期及五年期的利率水平 ...