策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着国内供应预期改善，现货华北、东北现货价格延续大幅下跌趋势。豆类期价整体跌幅明显 扩大。后期进口大豆到港量迎来峰值，油厂采购前置化解供应短缺风险，下游集中备货过后，后续备货心 态回归谨慎。随着市场预期转向，豆类期价累积的风险溢价持续回吐风险，价格明显偏弱。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解 ...

Group 1 - In 2024, venture capitalists invested over $200 billion in U.S. startups, with an average return on investment of approximately 12%, but 95% of returns were generated by only 5% of investors [1] - Successful venture capital requires a well-defined investment strategy that provides a clear perspective on investment opportunities in specific sectors [1][2] - The investment return distribution in venture capital is not normal; most investments are expected to fail, while a few can yield returns up to 50 times the investment [1] Group 2 - The article focuses on how venture capitalists evaluate specific investment opportunities within particular sectors, akin to deciding which fish to catch in a chosen fishing area [2] - A four-step method is outlined to help investors formulate effective investment strategies, which has been iteratively refined by TDK Ventures over the past five years [1][2] Group 3 - The first step in the investment strategy is to clarify known information about the investment opportunity, including market conditions, technology status, regulations, and challenges for new entrants [3] - In the field of grid technology, key known facts include the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and the development of megawatt-level DC fast charging in the U.S. market [4] Group 4 - The second step involves identifying unknown factors that could impact the investment strategy, such as market uncertainties and potential regulatory changes [6] - Uncertainties in the grid technology market include the timeline for the large-scale adoption of solid-state transformer (SST) technology and the verification of long-term reliability of power electronic infrastructure [7] Group 5 - The third step is to outline core viewpoints that, if proven correct, could lead to excess returns, focusing on the unique advantages of the investor [8] - The viewpoints derived indicate that SST represents the future of transformers and power conversion, enabling smarter and more reliable energy distribution [9] Group 6 - The final step is to define the key performance indicators (KPIs) that a company must meet to become a market leader in the sector, ensuring that the investment strategy is evidence-based [11] - A leading company in this space must provide modular, scalable SST systems with low capital expenditure, high reliability, and rapid deployment capabilities [13]

Core Insights - Gold remains a central asset in investor portfolios amid volatile global financial markets, serving as a traditional safe haven [1] - Velos Markets offers a flexible and professional trading platform for spot gold, forex, and CFDs, providing essential tools for investors to navigate market uncertainties [1] Group 1: Trading Mechanism and Platform Advantages - Velos Markets employs a T+0 trading mechanism, allowing investors to buy and sell gold within the same trading day without waiting for settlement [2] - The platform offers leveraged investment options, enabling traders to control larger positions, such as using 1:100 leverage to manage $100 worth of gold with just $1 of capital [2] - Integration with professional trading terminals like MT4/MT5 supports real-time data, technical indicators, and automated trading scripts, catering to institutional clients with API access for low-latency trading [2] Group 2: Market Analysis Framework - The research framework emphasizes the interplay of macroeconomics, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment, illustrated by the impact of the 2024 Federal Reserve interest rate cycle on gold prices [4] - Historical data indicates that gold prices typically face pressure when real interest rates exceed 1.5%, but geopolitical tensions can mitigate this effect, creating a "seesaw effect" [4] - Seasonal trends, such as increased physical gold purchases during the Chinese New Year, can lead to price increases of 3-5% [4] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Velos Markets recommends a "pyramid risk management" approach, with a base layer of hard stop-losses set at 1-2% of account equity, and higher layers utilizing hedging tools like gold options [5] - A case study showed a client achieving a 12.7% hedging return during the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis by holding both long gold and VIX call options [5] - The platform's risk alert system triggers margin adjustments when gold price volatility exceeds the historical 90th percentile, effectively managing risk exposure [5] Group 4: Practical Trading Strategies - Day traders are advised to focus on price gaps around London gold fixing times, with a 58% success rate during high liquidity periods [7] - Trend followers should use a combination of 20-day and 60-day moving averages, capturing an average of 75% in trending markets when specific conditions are met [7] - Arbitrage traders can exploit price differences between Shanghai Gold Exchange and London spot gold, particularly when premiums exceed $2 per ounce [7] Group 5: Account Management and Tools - The account opening process involves a three-tier verification system, allowing professional investors to bypass certain restrictions [9] - The "2% rule" is recommended for risk management, ensuring that no single trade risks more than 2% of total capital [9] - Velos Markets has introduced a "Gold-Bitcoin Correlation Index" to analyze the relationship between these assets, enhancing risk diversification strategies [9]

兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.28 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：玻璃空头格局明确，工业硅承压，沪镍成本支撑坚挺。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： | 1.地产政策持稳，玻璃厂旺季累库，玻璃 FG509 前空持有； | | --- | | 2.库存继续累积，工业硅 SI2506-C-9000 卖看涨期权持有； | | 3.矿端紧张延续，沪镍卖出看跌期权 NI2506P120000 头寸持有。 | 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策预期降温，震荡格局延续 上周 A 股延续横盘整理，科技与红利主题反复轮动，沪深两市 | | | | | | 成交额维持在 1.2 万亿元左右。从行业来看，上周综合金融、汽车、 | | | | | | 电力及新能源板块涨幅居前，食品饮料、消费者服务、房地产跌幅 | | | | | | 居前。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 期货市场随现货指数震荡调整，上周五 IF、IH、IC 和 IM 涨跌 | | 张舒绮 | 联 ...

hjn 2025 年 04 月 28 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 ETF 策略指数跟踪周报 2025/4/28 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 优势尽显 —公募基金量化遴选类策略指 数跟踪周报（2025.04.20）》2025-04-22 2、《ETF策略指数跟踪周报—2025/4/21》 2025-04-21 3、《低波策略发挥稳定器作用，本周震荡 行情获 1.2%超额 —公募基金量化遴选 类策略指数跟踪周报（2025.04.13）》 2025-04-15 4、《ETF策略指数跟踪周报—2025/4/14》 2025-04-14 5、《"对等关税"引全球巨震，常青低波 策略续获超额 —公募基金量化遴选类策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.04.06 ）》 2025-04-08 投资要点 分析师：程秉哲 华宝研究大小盘 ...

董辰的减仓并非无迹可循，拉长时间来看，他从2024年二季度便开始逐步减持黄金股，不仅将紫金矿业 调出前十大重仓股，而且将中金黄金和山金国际的仓位从9%以上减持到5%左右。此外，董辰此前也曾 表示，投资会遵循公司质量、景气度和成长空间的性价比切换策略，金融周期类主要围绕宏观和行业自 上而下选股。 就在这位重仓黄金股长达四年的基金经理选择撤离时，也有基金经理选择新进入场。 一季报显示，中欧基金基金经理袁维德在今年一季度大举买入黄金股，他管理的中欧价值智选回报新进 重仓了山东黄金、赤峰黄金，分别加仓至第一、十大重仓股。其中，赤峰黄金为今年A股中涨势最猛的 黄金股，年内涨幅达73.61%。 黄金正在经历一场剧烈的多空博弈，这种剧烈波动反映了黄金资产正处于一个关键转折点。 在最新披露的基金一季报中，基金经理对黄金股展示出了截然不同的调仓方向。一些重仓多年的基金经 理选择清仓式减持黄金股，而另一些基金经理则不惧高位，继续买入黄金资产。 这场关于黄金的投资策略之争正在悄然展开。 华泰柏瑞基金总经理助理、基金经理董辰从2020年四季度便开始重仓黄金股，以他管理的华泰柏瑞富利 为例，2021年一季度时，该基金前十大重仓股中一度 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in investment strategy from "American Exception" to "American Exclusion," suggesting a negative outlook on U.S. assets and a positive outlook on European and Asian markets, particularly in technology sectors [1][2]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of "American Exclusion" is driven by weakening economic growth expectations in the U.S., leading to a significant outflow of funds from dollar-denominated assets into euros, yen, gold, and global technology investments [1][2]. - The rise of AI technology is accelerating the commercialization of China's tech industry, resulting in increased foreign investment in Hong Kong tech companies, which in turn boosts trading volumes in A-shares [1][3]. - There is a notable increase in southbound capital flows contributing over 20% to Hong Kong's trading volume, marking a historical high, while liquidity is primarily flowing into small-cap stocks like the CSI 2000 [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Global Fund Flow Trends - Since the first half of 2025, a significant trend of capital outflow from U.S. assets has been observed, particularly since April, reinforcing the "American Exclusion" phenomenon [2]. - The performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index and European markets has been strong, contrasting with the average performance of U.S. and Japanese markets [2]. U.S. Economic Uncertainty - Increasing uncertainty regarding U.S. economic growth is a key factor driving the "American Exclusion" trend, with consumer confidence and purchasing manager indices indicating weakened confidence [4]. - The U.S. government’s spending cuts and defense department layoffs are expected to negatively impact employment data [4]. Institutional vs. Retail Investor Behavior - There is a significant behavioral difference between institutional and retail investors, with institutional trading volumes rising and improving market sentiment, while retail investor sentiment remains low [5][6]. - The proportion of financing purchases has been slow to recover, currently around 4%, which is below levels seen in November of the previous year [6]. Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may occur around December 2025, with potential trading opportunities arising from market adjustments to economic data shifts [10]. - The report highlights that sectors such as technology, AI, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy are likely to attract investor interest in the coming period [20][21]. Foreign Investment in China - Foreign investors are expected to maintain a positive outlook on the Chinese market, with expectations of further inflows into A-shares and H-shares as U.S. economic data weakens [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant adjustments made by fixed-income fund managers in response to the volatility in the bond market during the first quarter, emphasizing the need for a shift in investment strategies to focus on absolute returns and risk control [1][4][6] Group 2 - In the first quarter, there was an increase in the allocation of interest rate bonds and a decrease in credit bonds among actively managed fixed-income funds, with the proportion of interest rate bonds rising from 41.54% to 42.86% and credit bonds falling from 54.63% to 53.12% [2][3] - The shift towards interest rate bonds is attributed to the structural preference in the issuance market and the desire for better liquidity amid significant market fluctuations [2][3] Group 3 - Fund managers are advised to adopt a non-linear thinking approach in bond investment strategies, focusing on enhancing asset liquidity and adjusting the duration of asset holdings to better navigate market volatility [4][5] - There is a strong demand for stable, short- to medium-term bonds with secure coupon values, while certain convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds are seen as having good investment potential [5][6] Group 4 - The second quarter is expected to witness a peak in government project bond issuance, with anticipated supportive monetary policies, including potential rate cuts and the resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank [6] - The overall sentiment in the market is positive, with expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and growth [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite fluctuations in the dividend index, dividend funds have continued to attract capital, reaching a record high in total scale in the first quarter of the year [2][4] - As of the end of the first quarter, the total scale of dividend funds reached 251.367 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 27 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter [4] - Several products saw significant scale increases, with the Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF and the China Europe Dividend Preferred Fund increasing by 3.468 billion yuan and 2.76 billion yuan, respectively [4] Group 2 - Industry insiders believe that while equity funds have reduced their allocation to dividend assets, the scarcity of quality assets suggests that dividend assets still hold good allocation value [3] - The growth in the scale of dividend funds is attributed to several factors, including policy encouragement for companies to distribute dividends, long-term capital entering the market, and a flight to safety amid tariff disruptions [4][6] - The performance of dividend indices was generally negative in the first quarter, with the CSI Dividend Index declining by 3.11%, leading to a reduction in equity funds' allocation to dividend assets [4][5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current market is shifting from "broad dividends" to "high-quality dividends," with stable dividend-paying sectors like banking and publishing showing resilience against macroeconomic variables [5][6] - The investment value of dividend assets remains, with a focus on low valuation and high dividend yield sectors presenting opportunities, particularly before the annual dividend distribution period from May to July [6] - Dividend assets are expected to benefit from economic improvement, with a GDP growth rate of 5.4% in the first quarter indicating potential positive trends for these assets [6] Group 4 - Potential risks include the possibility of capital flow reversals if dividend assets experience increased volatility, especially given the significant gains accumulated in 2024 [7][8] - High levels of trading congestion and market changes are also noted as risks, particularly if the development logic of consumer and technology assets reverses, which could siphon off capital from dividend assets [8] - Recommendations for investing in dividend assets include using dollar-cost averaging and grid trading strategies, while closely monitoring macroeconomic changes [9]

进入4月，重点城市的土地拍卖市场依旧热闹，而且还有多个"重磅地块"即将开拍。 在业内人士看来，重点城市土拍升温传递出积极信号，房企普遍采取"聚焦高能级城市"的投资策略或导致重点城市土拍竞争加剧。 "核心"地块争夺白热化 今年以来，重点城市土拍不断升温，一季度，北京、杭州、成都等城市地价屡创新高。进入4月，多个城市土拍热度不减，北京、杭州、成都、苏州、重庆、 南京相继拍出高溢价地块。 4月22日，杭州土拍推出两宗萧山区的涉宅地块，共揽金约44.73亿元，整体平均溢价率达到63.7%，显示房企对"核心区位+低密属性"地块争夺白热化。 中指研究院的数据显示，自2023年10月起，多地相继取消地价上限要求，截至去年年底，22个重点城市宅地成交平均溢价率保持在5%至10%左右，市场整体 表现较为稳定。随着去年四季度核心城市销售端逐渐好转，今年以来土地市场平均溢价率上升明显，1月至4月，22个重点城市月度平均溢价率均在20%左 右。与此同时，在核心城市土拍带动下，土地出让金同比增长显著，截至4月22日，今年以来300城住宅用地出让金同比增长20.1%。 有深圳一家大型房企的营销部门负责人对记者表示，有实力也有意愿拿上述地 ...